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Wizards vs. HornetsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSpectrum Center · Charlotte
Wizards
103–110Final
Hornets
Score by period
Team1234T
WAS21232435103
CHA19352630110

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 228.5 52¢

Why Drift likes it: Power total 225.0: Washington 109.0 ORtg/106.9 DRtg, Charlotte 98.2/110.0; current pace averages 106.1.

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How the picks did

Models went 14-13 on this game · +1% return

  1. Game total under 228.53 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsStar Out Lag, Tip Total +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Star Out Lag
    • Total was 228.5 at 12:49 AM and remains 228.5: a 0.0-point fall, clearing the under-2 gate.
    • Recent game totals without White: Charlotte 215.7 L3 and Washington 234.0 L3; their midpoint is 224.85, 3.65 below market.
    • Only three current-season games inform each team average; the 224.85 estimate is noisy.
    Tip Total
    • Projected lineup pace averages 107.5 possessions: Washington 114.5, Charlotte 100.4.
    • Lineup offense/defense blend projects 1.078 PPP for Washington and 0.944 for Charlotte.
    • Both starting groups are expected rather than officially confirmed; Naz Reid is only listed probable.
    Shot Clock
    • 106.1 blended possessions from Washington's 108.6 pace and Charlotte's 103.6; Washington is the likelier tempo setter.
    • Washington: 109.0 ORTG versus Charlotte's 110.0 DRTG implies roughly 109.5 points per 100 possessions.
    • Only three regular-season games support the pace and efficiency inputs; the 16.5-point disagreement may mean the projection is the suspect number.
  2. Washington Wizards to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsCrowd Echo, Late Scratch Ledger +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Crowd Echo
    • Model fair probability 47.8%: 50/50 blend of current net-rating differential (+13.8 Wizards) and 2025 full-season differential (-16.4 Wizards), with home court and injuries applied.
    • The modeled 47.8% is only 5.9 points above the sharp devig reference; a modest rating error removes the edge.
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • Charlotte on/off plus-minus rates imply roughly a 4, 5 point combined downgrade, led by Grant Williams' +22.5 per-100-minute on/off gap and Coby White's +4.2.
    • Sion James has averaged 23.1 minutes without White; probable Naz Reid has played 31.5 minutes and scored 20.0 points per game in Charlotte's three regular-season games.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting lineups remain the latest projection; Reid is only Probable with an illness.
    Tempo Dictator
    • Washington averaged 108.6 possessions, rank 1, while Charlotte averaged 103.6, 1.5 below the 105.1 league mean.
    • Pinnacle lists Washington +130; ProphetX is four cents better.
    • Only three games of current-season pace data; the mechanism is untested and this is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  3. Washington Wizards spread +2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Late Scratch Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 53.0%: Washington +2.0 net rating versus Charlotte -11.8; average pace 108.6 versus 103.6, rest equal at 2.67 days.
    • Expected Washington starters include Anthony Davis, Trae Young, Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, and Kyshawn George; Charlotte has four listed rotation absences.
    • Only three current-season games inform the rating; Washington's 2.03 net and Charlotte's -11.8 net are highly volatile samples.
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • The same late-scratch read is approximately 4, 5 points toward Washington, while the venue still posts Charlotte -2.5; the fair number has not crossed Washington +2.5.
    • Sion James is absorbing guard minutes at 23.1 mpg without White; Reid's probable 31.5 mpg role helps, but does not replace Grant Williams' two-way minutes.
    • Expected starters are not yet official, and Reid's probable illness creates residual rotation uncertainty.
  4. Game total under 226.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, First Month
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Combined season and last-10 scoring average is 220.0 points (Charlotte 102.0, Washington 118.0), 8.5 below the 228.5 sharp main.
    • Washington is fifth in pace but outside the top-five efficiency group; Charlotte is outside both top-five groups, avoiding the exception.
    • Only three current-season games make the season/last-10 comparison thin and noisy.
    First Month
    • Last-season pace was 101.1 for Charlotte and 104.4 for Washington; the 102.8-possession baseline supports a slower total.
    • Charlotte's expected lineup excludes Coby White, while Washington's recent additions are mostly low-minute players; no coaching-change boost is evident.
    • Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed, so late availability could materially change pace and scoring.
  5. Washington Wizards +1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    2 modelsPower Gap, Sharp Wallet Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Power Gap
    • Projected Wizards margin +11.8: current net ratings +2.0 versus Charlotte -11.8, after 2.0 points home court.
    • point NBA margin standard gives 86.7% fair probability at Wizards +1.5; conservative fair number is 83.0%.
    • Only three regular-season games feed both current season and L10 ratings; early-season ratings are noisy.
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Washington is +2.0 net rating through 3 games; Charlotte is -11.8, with a conservative shrink for the tiny sample.
    • Pinnacle's -2.5 main spread devigs to 48.3% for Washington +2.5; the Polymarket +1.5 rung is within one point.
    • Only three regular-season games drive the current ratings; early-season variance is substantial.
  6. Brandon Miller under 24.5 points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNext Man Priced, NFL Sharp Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    Next Man Priced
    • Coby White is officially out; Miller is an expected starter with no injury restriction and played 36.2 minutes last game.
    • 47 games without White: Miller averaged 30.37 minutes, 17.0 FGA and 20.4 points.
    • The comparable sample spans 2025 and 2026 roster contexts; rotation effects are not perfectly isolated.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Miller averages 17.8 points across his recent five-game form; his six-game season average is 17.83.
    • He cleared 24.5 in only one of three regular-season games, despite playing 22.5 to 36.2 minutes.
    • Projected lineup is expected, not confirmed; a late role or minutes change would materially affect the prop.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Brandon Miller under 33.5 points + rebounds + assistsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23.4 PRA over his last five games versus a 33.5 line: 30.1% below the threshold.
    • Washington's current-season defensive rating is 106.9, a favorable matchup for a Miller under.
    • Miller is listed active and projected to start in the live lineup; the prop is posted at PrizePicks.
    • The lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed, so minutes remain uncertain.
  2. Under total 228.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power total 225.0: Washington 109.0 ORtg/106.9 DRtg, Charlotte 98.2/110.0; current pace averages 106.1.
    • Pinnacle exact current rung: Over +101 / Under -114, devigged Under 51.9%; model 55.5%, gap 3.6p.
    • Pinnacle opened 229.5 at -109/-109 and now shows 228.5 at +101/-114: one-point drop, travel toward Under.
    • Both starting groups are expected, not confirmed; Naz Reid is only probable and a late change can alter scoring.
  3. Game under 228.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total is approximately 224, 225, 3.5, 4.5 points below the Kalshi center rung.
    • Regular-season samples show 106.1 combined possessions per game, with Charlotte at 98.2 ORtg and Washington at 109.0.
    • Three-point rates are modest: Charlotte 15.7% and Washington 10.9%; early-season conservative rotations support the under.
    • Only three regular-season games per team; pace and efficiency estimates are noisy.
  4. Washington Wizards +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's first three regular-season games are +2.0 net rating versus -11.6 last season, while Charlotte is -11.8 versus +4.8.
    • Roster-adjusted baseline favors Washington's expected Anthony Davis/Trae Young core against a Charlotte group that lost LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and Kon Knueppel.
    • Shrinking the three-game swing toward last year's ratings still makes Washington +2.5 about 55% fair.
    • Both projected starting lineups are unconfirmed, so late changes to Davis, Young or Naz Reid could move the fair number materially.
  5. Game under 228.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total is approximately 224 points from a slower-biased 105.5 possession estimate and blended efficiency.
    • Charlotte's current-season L3: 103.6 pace, 98.2 offensive rating, 110.0 defensive rating.
    • Washington's current-season L3: 108.6 pace, 109.0 offensive rating, 106.9 defensive rating; matchup blend remains below 228.5.
    • Washington's current-season totals average 234.0, and its 108.6 pace can pull the game upward.
  6. Under 228.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season form: combined scoring averages 220.0 points; both teams' offensive ratings are below 110.
    • Recent totals average 224.2 across the teams' six games; current line remains 228.5 despite under pressure.
    • Market movement supports the position: sportsbook total moved down or juiced under from opening; quality score 62/100.
    • All-in Polymarket fee-adjusted break-even is about 53.7%, leaving roughly 1.8 percentage points of modeled cushion.
  7. Charlotte Hornets to win
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 5¢ middle-rung drops exceed the brief's roughly 2.5, 3¢ coherence guide; direct winner versus over 1.5 is only a 1¢ gap.
    • Both winner quotes are tight at 1¢ and heavily traded, so this is a live middle-market seam rather than a tail placeholder.
    • The cross-side advantage is only 1¢, so quote noise can erase the entire edge.
  8. Washington Wizards moneyline (WAS 107.2 possessions in wins/111.4 in losses; CHA 105.3 in wins/100.3 in losses)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Tempo BossUp 61% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle devig is 45.4%; model edge is +5.6 points, clearing the 3-point gate.
    • Transition share favors Washington, 18.0% of possessions versus Charlotte's 14.2%; Washington TOV% is 14.1% versus 18.0%.
    • Only three current-season games make the tempo splits noisy and fragile.
  9. Game total under 228
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte’s three-game pace is 103.6 possessions with a 98.2 ORtg; its slower style is the tempo-control side.
    • Charlotte’s last three game totals were 225, 209, and 213; its offense has not sustained the posted number.
    • Current total baselines are 215.7 for Charlotte and 234.0 for Washington; their midpoint is 224.9, below 228.
    • Most likely loss: Washington’s 108.6 pace and two 244-point games can pull Charlotte into a faster game.
  10. Under 228.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, blended pace is 106.1 possessions and the matchup projection is about 225.1 points, 3.4 below 228.5.
    • Washington's season/L10 profile: 108.6 pace, 109.0 offensive rating, 106.9 defensive rating; Charlotte: 103.6, 98.2, 110.0.
    • Both teams last played October 24; the current schedule supplies an intervening day rather than a current back-to-back. Updated injury report has Naz Reid probable and lists the other absences.
    • Starters remain expected rather than confirmed, and Reid is only probable; a late lineup change can alter pace or efficiency.
  11. Charlotte Hornets −2
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Opener GapDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fair Charlotte margin is +5.6 versus the ProphetX -2 rung, a 3.6-point gap.
    • Rating blend: three current-season games (45%), prior full season (40%), prior last-10 (15%); current sample caps conviction.
    • Opponent-adjusted current schedules were nearly equal (opponent net averages -3.95 CHA, -4.39 WAS); rest profile is identical.
    • Projected starters are expected, not confirmed; late availability news involving Davis, Young, or Miller could change the number.
  12. Charlotte Hornets spread −2
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • both teams played Oct. 23 and Oct. 24, but Washington travels from Chicago while Charlotte remains home.
    • ProphetX's main number stayed Charlotte -2 from its opening quote; the current -101 price has not been priced through a move toward Charlotte.
    • Pinnacle also shows Charlotte -2 at -101; venue and sharp reference agree on the number.
    • Both teams are in a three-games-in-four-days spot, so the rest edge is mostly Washington's travel burden rather than a clean rest advantage.
  13. Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets total over 228
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • adjusted blend projects approximately 231 total points, more than three above the 228 rung.
    • Pace input: roughly 103 projected possessions; current-season samples are 103.6 Charlotte and 108.6 Washington.
    • Efficiency input: prior-season and last-10 offense/defense blends favor scoring against Washington's weaker defense.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups leave late star-status uncertainty; a material scratch could move the projection by at least two points.

Questions

Who won Wizards vs. Hornets?

The Hornets won 110–103 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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