Get app

Pacers vs. BucksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Pacers
102–110Final
Bucks
Score by period
Team1234T
IND29322417102
MIL31193426110

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Bucks spread +4.5 −115

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Pacers are on a back-to-back after Sunday's game; Milwaukee has the rest edge.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 21-7 on this game · +58% return

  1. Milwaukee Bucks spread +4.55 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    5 modelsCoaches Corner, Home Dog Hold +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Pacers are on a back-to-back after Sunday's game; Milwaukee has the rest edge.
    • Indiana is without rotation guards T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, and Ben Sheppard.
    • Milwaukee is 0-3 with defensive ratings of 118.4, 118.5, and 123.0 in its last three games.
    Home Dog Hold
    • Milwaukee has the rest edge: last played Oct. 24; Indiana played Oct. 25.
    • No Milwaukee player is ruled out in the 2:29 PM injury feed; Indiana has McConnell and Sheppard out, with Nembhard questionable.
    • Milwaukee's current three-game sample is poor and the ratings blend remains highly uncertain.
    Back-to-Back Debt
    • Indiana played Brooklyn on Sunday, making Monday a real second night of a back-to-back; Milwaukee played Saturday and has one rest day.
    • Indiana went 3-18 with a -10.97 average net rating in 21 regular-season back-to-back/3-in-4 games last season; this season has 0 same-spot games so far.
    • The current-season Pacers are 2-1 with a +4.53 net rating, and the fatigue sample this year is nonexistent.
    Short Bench
    • Tonight schedule: Indiana is B2B with 0 rest after 10/25; Milwaukee is not B2B with 1 rest, from nba_team_schedule_to_date rows.
    • Pace is close but Bucks control the slightly faster home environment: Milwaukee 107.6 versus Indiana 106.9 possessions.
    • Andrew Nembhard is questionable despite an expected starting designation; Indiana’s rotation is not fully resolved.
  2. Milwaukee Bucks to win3 models agree
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Novig

    3 modelsOld Prior, Report Lag +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Old Prior
    • Small-sample regression: Indiana is 2-1 with +4.7 net margin, versus Milwaukee 0-3 at -10.0.
    • Last season's full-season net ratings were Milwaukee -6.4 and Indiana -7.8, only a 1.4-point Bucks edge.
    • Both starting groups are projected rather than confirmed, and Indiana's injury list includes several questionable/out players.
    Report Lag
    • Three Pacers are newly listed Out versus the prior day's unsubmitted report: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, and T.J. McConnell.
    • Estimated Pacers downgrade is about 1.5 points after replacement-quality discounts: Sheppard ~0.7, Furphy ~0.4, McConnell ~0.4.
    • These are role-player absences, not a star; the true impact may be closer to 0.5, 1.0 points.
    October Prior
    • Kalshi moved Milwaukee from 44¢ opening to 39¢ as Indiana’s 2-1 start outweighed Milwaukee’s 0-3 start.
    • Last-season net ratings favored Milwaukee by 1.4 points before home-court and roster adjustments.
    • Indiana’s early-season +4.7 net rating versus Milwaukee’s -10.0 may reflect real roster improvement, not noise.
  3. Milwaukee Bucks +4.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsThird in Four, Ladder Seam
    Why 2 models like it
    Third in Four
    • Pacers play their third game in four nights: Oct. 23, 25 and 26.
    • Indiana traveled Indianapolis to Brooklyn, then Brooklyn to Milwaukee across the compressed sequence.
    • Milwaukee is 0-3 with a minus-10.0 average margin in its last three.
    Ladder Seam
    • The +4.5 spread is quoted at 51.92¢ (-108), a gap of about 3.3 probability points versus the moneyline-implied margin curve.
    • The local ladder is monotone through +4.5, +5, +5.5, +6 and +6.5; the refreshed +4.5 quote is unchanged and fully live.
    • The most likely loss is Indiana winning by 5 or more, making the moneyline and margin curve right.
  4. Game total over 238.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsShot Clock, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Shot Clock
    • expected total 242.9 points, 4.4 above the same-rung Kalshi line of 238.5.
    • Tempo has no clear dictator: Pacers 106.9 and Bucks 107.6 pace; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Andrew Nembhard is officially questionable for neck soreness at 1:45 PM PDT despite appearing in the expected lineup.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Recent combined game totals are 243, 257, 244, 245, 226, and 243; five of six clear 238.5.
    • Indiana averages 121.3 points and Milwaukee allows 129.0 through three regular-season games.
    • The sample is only three regular-season games per team, so early-season ratings are noisy.
  5. Over 238.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  6. Indiana Pacers spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's net rating is +4.53 versus Milwaukee's -9.40 through three regular-season games, a 13.93-point team gap.
    • After 2.0 points of home court and a small Milwaukee rest adjustment, projected margin is approximately Indiana -11.5.
    • With NBA margin standard deviation near 12, the model gives Indiana -4.5 roughly a 72% cover chance.
    • The ratings sample is only three regular-season games, so the model estimate is highly noisy.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game total under 238.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last season's team total profiles averaged 227.5 (Milwaukee) and 232.8 (Indiana), below the 238.5 market.
    • Last-season pace was 100.3 Milwaukee and 103.8 Indiana; current three-game pace is a noisy 107.6 and 106.9.
    • Indiana's core coach is unchanged; Milwaukee's additions were mostly low-minute roles, so no verified rotation-driven pace increase offsets the baseline.
    • Milwaukee has a first-year head coach, and the expected starting group differs from last season's rotation.
  2. Indiana Pacers over 239.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current pace is Indiana 106.9 and Milwaukee 107.6; a pace/efficiency blend projects roughly 243 total, 3.5 above the rung.
    • Tempo mechanism: Indiana's fast profile can pull Milwaukee above its 100.2 prior-season pace; Milwaukee's current 120.0 defensive rating supplies the defensive leakage.
    • sportsbook totals fell from 240.5/239.5 overnight to 238.5, while this ProphetX adjacent rung still offers +106.
    • Indiana played October 25; Milwaukee has the cleaner rest profile, which could reduce Pacers pace or fourth-quarter efficiency.
  3. Ryan Rollins over 2.5 three-pointers madeLong shot
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 regular-season rate: 8.63 three-point attempts per 36; projected 27.5 minutes.
    • Projected attempts are approximately 6.0 after the Pacers' 0.32/0.35 perimeter-rate factor and game-pace adjustment.
    • The lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed; a role or minutes change would damage the projection.
  4. Game total under 240
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX still offers under 240, one full point behind the current sharp number, at -117.
    • ProphetX's captured main rung stayed 238.5 while its price moved -142 open to -103 current; the 240 rung remains lagged.
    • The move could reflect information not visible in the injury feed; final inactives and starters remain unconfirmed.
  5. Tyrese Haliburton over 19.5 points
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fliff offers 19.5 at -125; FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are all dealing 20.5.
    • Haliburton scored 24, 18, and 23 points in three regular-season games, averaging 21.7.
    • He played 31.4, 32.2, and 33.5 minutes, with 13-17 field-goal attempts each game.
    • Indiana's lineup is expected rather than confirmed; the participant feed does not independently mark Haliburton as a starter.
  6. Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks over 238.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace-adjusted current ratings project approximately 242.5 combined points, four above the traded total.
    • Five of six team-game totals across the teams' last three games cleared 238.5.
    • Research-quality 76/100; decision grade B because the early-season sample is only three games per team.
    • Only three current-season games per team; the estimated 55% win chance has substantial calibration uncertainty, roughly 48%-61%.
  7. Myles Turner under 10.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.0 points across his last five starts versus a 10.5 line: 33.3% below.
    • Indiana's current-season defense ranks 13th at 107.6 defensive rating.
    • Turner is listed in Milwaukee's expected starting five and is priced for this game.
    • The lineup is expected, not officially confirmed; the odds feed does not mark Turner as a confirmed starter.
  8. Ryan Rollins under 14.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.0 points across his last five starts versus a 14.5 line: 24.1% below.
    • Four of five recent starts stayed under 14.5 points; only the latest reached 15.
    • Indiana's current-season defense ranks 13th at 107.6 defensive rating.
    • The lineup is expected, not officially confirmed; the odds feed does not mark Rollins as a confirmed starter.
  9. Pascal Siakam under 25 points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Siakam scored 21, 23, and 30 in three regular-season games; under 25 in two.
    • His regular-season minutes were 25.62, 28.95, and 35.28, keeping this line vulnerable to ordinary variance.
    • Indiana’s spread ladder centers near -4.5; Indiana wins by over 12.5 is only 25.5%, so the case is baseline-based.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineup status leaves a late rotation or availability change unknown.
  10. Jay Huff under 10.5 points
    +85%Won

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    Next Man PricedUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Zubac is officially out; Huff is the expected replacement and is priced as an active participant.
    • Without Zubac: 77 eligible Huff games, 21.14 minutes, 7.39 FGA, 9.49 points; with Zubac: 7 games, 16.81 minutes, 7.00 FGA, 9.43 points.
    • The absence adds 4.33 minutes but only 0.39 attempts and 0.06 points in the comparable sample.
    • Huff's lineup is expected, not officially confirmed; a true starting role could push minutes above the historical absence sample.
  11. Milwaukee Bucks moneyline +156
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Shootaround WhisperUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the 10:30 AM injury report still says Ivica Zubac is questionable but unlikely to play after rolling his ankle Sunday; the board remains Pacers -160/Bucks +156.
    • Pacers availability read is effectively OUT: Zubac left Sunday after 7.05 minutes, and coach Rick Carlisle cited swelling despite negative X-rays.
    • Indiana went 4-9 in 13 sampled 2025-26 second-night back-to-backs; Milwaukee has the rest edge after last playing Saturday.
    • Most likely loss: Zubac is cleared and plays effectively, restoring Indiana's frontcourt edge.
  12. Milwaukee Bucks spread +4
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee's 10/24 game was a flagged back-to-back and 3-in-4; Indiana played 10/25 and is on the back-to-back tonight.
    • Current-season game log verifies Milwaukee last played 10/24 while Indiana last played 10/25; the rest differential favors Milwaukee.
    • the captured sharp spread stayed 4.5 from opening to current, with no number move toward the schedule edge.
    • Indiana remains the home favorite; Haliburton played 31.4 minutes and Siakam 25.6 minutes Sunday, but their core can still overcome fatigue.
  13. Milwaukee Bucks +4
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Road Trip LedgerDown 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana plays consecutive road dates, Brooklyn to Milwaukee, with a one-hour westward timezone shift; Milwaukee has one off day.
    • This is only road-game 2 because Indiana hosted Dallas on Oct. 23; the long-trip sample is not directly applicable.
  14. Game total under 239
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 3 current-season games each; prior-season blend projects roughly 233, 234 total points, 5+ below 239.
    • Tempo Clock: blended pace is about 103 possessions, pulled down from early-season 107-plus readings by last season's 103.6 Pacers and 100.2 Bucks.
    • Indiana is on a consecutive-day spot after scoring 136; the rest-driven slowdown is the clearest mechanism against another full-game track meet.
    • Only 3 current-season games per team fails the 8-game sample gate; this is prior-season-blend territory and therefore LEAN only.

Questions

Who won Pacers vs. Bucks?

The Bucks won 110-102 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.