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Trail Blazers vs. KingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGolden 1 Center · Sacramento
Trail Blazers
128–120Final
Kings
Score by period
Team1234T
POR27324425128
SAC33312630120

Top model pick, graded

Won

Portland Trail Blazers to win 80¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-16 on this game · −30% return

  1. Portland Trail Blazers −9.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    3 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Power Gap +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Net rating gap is 64.0 points per 100 possessions: Portland +39.8, Sacramento -24.2.
    • Portland's opener produced a .580 eFG and 120.5 offensive rating versus Sacramento's .471 and 92.9.
    • The 41-point Portland opener and 25-point Sacramento loss are one-game samples with substantial regression risk.
    Power Gap
    • Current regular-season net ratings are Portland +39.8 and Sacramento -24.2 after the latest games.
    • Conservatively regressed projection still makes Portland an approximately 18-point favorite after the 2.0-point home-court adjustment.
    • The regular-season rating sample is only one game per team, so the apparent edge is highly noise-sensitive.
    Crowd Echo
    • Model makes Portland -9.5 a 60.0% outcome; exact-rung Pinnacle devig is 52.0%.
    • Portland posted 120.5 ORtg/80.7 DRtg (+39.8 net); Sacramento posted 92.9/117.1 (-24.2).
    • Both ratings are one-game samples; the model applies shrinkage and could still overreact to opening-night results.
  2. Game total under 232.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsPrice Cap, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Model mean is approximately 229 points, about 3.5 below the 232.5 rung.
    • 80% last-season / 20% current-season rating blend tempers Portland's 120.5 and Sacramento's 92.9 early-season extremes.
    • Each team has only one regular-season game in the current sample, making the rating blend uncertain.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 232.5 is well above Portland's 207-point opener and Sacramento's 217-point opener.
    • The teams' first 2026-27 meeting finished 110-98, 24.5 points below this number.
    • Two-game early-season samples are extremely thin and lineup roles remain projected, not confirmed.
  3. Sacramento Kings +9.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    2 modelsOld Prior, Tired Chalk Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Old Prior
    • Portland's 2026 opener was +41 while Sacramento's was -25, driving the market toward Portland after a noisy one-game sample.
    • Last-season net ratings were Portland -0.18 and Sacramento -9.88; with home court, the blended projection still makes Portland roughly a 6, 7 point favorite, not 9.5.
    • Both projected starting lineups remain expected rather than confirmed, with the latest lineup timestamp from 3:02 AM PDT.
    Tired Chalk Dog
    • Gate: Portland's 124-83 win used eight bench players, with six reserves logging at least 12 minutes, credible blowout-compression depth.
    • Portland has one rest day between games, not a back-to-back; both projected top guards, Ja Morant and Damian Lillard, are active, so the case is specifically bench compression.
    • The favorite is rested rather than tired; the compression gate depends on Portland building a 10+ point lead.
  4. Portland Trail Blazers to winFavorite
    +25%Won

    Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. Portland Trail Blazers over 20.5-point win marginLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Margin TailUp 116% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated margin mean approximately 16 points after shrinking the one-game net-rating extremes toward last-season form.
    • Portland is currently ranked first by net rating; Sacramento is ranked 15th after one game.
    • The current-season ratings are only one game old, making the margin estimate highly uncertain.
  6. Portland Trail Blazers spread −10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact-rung reference: Portland -10 -104 versus Sacramento +10 -106; devigged Portland fair price is 49.8%.
    • Power rating is 53.5% Portland cover: 90/10 prior-current net-rating shrink, current net ratings POR +39.8/SAC -24.2, prior averages POR -0.2/SAC -9.9, equal five-day rest, and expected starters.
    • Pinnacle opened Sacramento +8.5 -112 and is now Sacramento +10 -106/Portland -10 -104; the 1.5-point move is toward Portland.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Portland has Sharpe, Carlson, and Youngblood out; Sacramento has Simmons, Raynaud, and Cardwell out.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game total under 231.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    High BarUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland and Sacramento average 124.0 and 96.0 points; combined season and last-10 average is only 220.0.
    • Neither team is top-five in pace: Portland ranks 21st at 102.9, Sacramento 19th at 103.3.
    • Both season and last-10 samples contain only one game, making the 220.0 scoring baseline extremely thin.
  2. Game total under 232.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection is about 225 points, roughly 7.5 below the Kalshi center rung.
    • Last-season pace averaged 104.4 for Portland and 101.9 for Sacramento; the blended pace is near 103 possessions.
    • Last-season efficiency baselines point to a mid-220s matchup: Portland 110.7 ORTG/110.8 DRTG, Sacramento 109.0 ORTG/118.9 DRTG.
    • Both lineups are projected rather than confirmed; Malik Monk is only listed probable, and late rotation news could change the total.
  3. Toumani Camara over 15 pointsLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Usage VacuumDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Shaedon Sharpe is confirmed out; Camara's 32-game without-Sharpe split rises to 14.31 points and 10.97 FGA.
    • Camara scored 15+ in 7 of his last 10, including 6 of 8 games with Sharpe inactive; recent minutes average 32.7.
    • Projected starter with stable minutes; Camara's 10+/15+/20+ Kalshi ladder is monotone, and the 15+ rung has 455 contracts traded with a 2¢ spread.
    • Starting lineup remains expected rather than officially confirmed; an unexpected rotation change could reduce minutes.
  4. Game total under 226.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Novig

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland and Sacramento average 101.1 and 104.3 possessions over the last 10; combined pace is 102.7.
    • Last-10 scoring efficiency is 1.082 and 1.016 points per possession, producing a 215.4 raw total estimate.
    • Both teams last played October 21, so neither receives a back-to-back penalty or bonus in the rest adjustment.
    • Both starting groups are projected, not confirmed; a late lineup change could materially alter the estimate.
  5. Sacramento Kings spread +10
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX -102 converts to 50.5%; 2025 full-season ratings project Portland by roughly 6.7 points, better than +10.
    • Pinnacle is Portland -10/Kings +10, within zero points of ProphetX.
    • Kings +10 home-side price held near 50.5% from 4:03, 5:12 PM, supporting more than a dust order.
    • Most likely loss: Portland's extraordinary current form overwhelms the number and produces another blowout.
  6. Sacramento Kings spread +9.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 53.5% model fair cover probability clears the 52% underdog gate.
    • Pinnacle has Portland -10 at -105 both ways; devigged Sacramento +10 is 50.0%, with the exchange rung only 0.5 points away.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting lineups leave late scratches and role changes unresolved.
  7. Portland Trail Blazers wins by over 7.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Dog RungsDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland is short-handed off the bench: Sharpe, Carlson and Youngblood are out.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; a late scratch could change the estimate.
  8. Donovan Clingan under 11.5 total rebounds
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • His current-season game sample is 7, 11, 4, 6, 10 rebounds; only the 7-rebound game was regular season, and minutes were 20.73.
    • 2025 regular-season baseline: 15.34 rebounds per 36 over 77 games and 2,094 minutes; at a supported 20.7-24 minute range, that is 8.8-10.2 rebounds.
    • Sacramento had 49 missed field goals in its latest game and 103.3 possessions, providing opportunity without requiring an unsupported pace multiplier.
    • The lineup is still expected rather than confirmed; a workload increase toward last season's roughly 27-minute role could materially threaten the under.
  9. Game total under 228.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25-game venue split: Sacramento home 112.2 ORTG/102.0 pace; Portland road 106.6 ORTG/102.2 pace.
    • Shrinking both rates 50% toward the 2025 league averages produces a projected total near 226.9.
    • Projection is 5.1 points below Pinnacle's fresh 232.0 main total; the 228.5 under is the nearest rung above the projection.
    • Historical league total volatility is wide: 2025 regular-season total standard deviation was 23.1 points.
  10. Total points under 232.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Regular-season pace is Portland 102.9 and Sacramento 103.3 possessions; preseason pace was 102.9 and 108.0, supporting a 230.0 blended total model.
    • Last-game rotation: Sacramento used 9 players at 13+ minutes and Portland 11; neither side has a demonstrated fatigue edge, so the pace signal carries the read.
    • Both teams have equal rest; this is not a back-to-back or rest-differential play.
  11. Under 232.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland's five projected starters averaged only 18.4, 22.0 minutes across their last five games.
    • Portland's prior second-night rotation on Oct. 13 kept Lillard, Avdija, Clingan and Camara to 20.0, 25.0 minutes; Morant played 23.2.
    • Recent team scoring averages are Portland 118.8 and Sacramento 101.4, a 220.2 combined baseline versus 232.5.
    • Most likely loss: a close game forces veteran starters into normal fourth-quarter minutes and efficient shooting clears 233.
  12. Domantas Sabonis under 36.5 points+rebounds+assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.5% gap: Sabonis averages 25.0 PRA across his three current-season games versus the 36.5 line.
    • Sabonis has stayed under 36.5 in all three current-season games: 25, 10, and 40 PRA?
    • Portland's last five defensive-rating readings average 95.4, a strong recent matchup for a Sabonis unders angle.
    • Lineup status is expected rather than officially confirmed; a late change could alter minutes or role.
  13. Sacramento Kings +10
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sacramento coach D. Christie kept Acuff, LaVine and Sabonis at 34.9/34.2/33.6 minutes in the 25-point opener loss.
    • Portland coach M. Nori used 15 players in a 41-point opening win; seven logged 20, 29 minutes, a blowout rotation less likely to repeat.
    • Neither team was in a back-to-back in its last-game row; Sacramento's core has no obvious rest-management handicap.
    • Most likely loss: Portland's 124, 83 opener was representative, and its depth produces another early separation.
  14. Game under 232.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current pace is nearly neutral (Portland 102.9, Sacramento 103.3); slight Portland tempo influence from 104.4 prior-season pace versus Sacramento 101.9.
    • Current cross-efficiency read: Portland offense versus Sacramento defense 118.8, Sacramento offense versus Portland defense 86.8 points per 100 possessions.
    • Prior-season cross-efficiency baseline implies about 231.8 points; blending it with the current one-game read produces a conservative 222.0 total, 10.5 below the 232.5 rung.
    • Only one 2026-27 game per team makes the pace_l10_delta of 0.0 non-informative and the efficiency inputs highly noisy.

Questions

Who won Trail Blazers vs. Kings?

The Trail Blazers won 128–120 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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