Rockets vs. SpursFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMoody Center · Austin

Rockets

114–110Final

Spurs

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	32	29	24	29	114
SAS	27	32	22	29	110

Top model pick, graded

Won

Houston Rockets +4.5 −102

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Net rating gap is 29.5 points per 100 possessions: Houston +18.4, San Antonio -11.1.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 15% return this season · 84 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 10-9 on this game · +1% return

San Antonio Spurs to winFavorite2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsShootaround Whisper, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
Why 2 models like it
Shootaround Whisper
- Fox stayed Questionable at 12:10 PM but participated in shootaround and took extra shots; expected starters still include him.
- Spurs regular-season Questionable sample: Fox played 1/1; broader star samples were Wembanyama 7/9 and Castle 8/10.
- Fox remains officially Questionable with a right-wrist sprain; shootaround participation is not game clearance.
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
- Global full-game moneyline is executable at 64.5c and accepts orders; resolution matches the game winner.
- Expected lineups remain projections; Steven Adams is questionable and Houston's early form is stronger.
Houston Rockets over 14.5-point win marginLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
Margin TailUp 116% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Houston's current net rating is +18.4 versus San Antonio's -11.1 after the opening game, a 29.5-point gap.
- San Antonio's live injury context lists rotation forwards Jayden Quaintance and Tobias Harris out; both are rotation absences.
- Houston is rested relative to its 10/21 game and is not playing the second night of a back-to-back.
- The net-rating sample is only one game, so the 29.5-point gap is highly unstable.
Houston Rockets +4.5
+98%Won
Taken at −102 on DraftKings
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Net rating gap is 29.5 points per 100 possessions: Houston +18.4, San Antonio -11.1.
- Houston posted 130.6 offensive rating and 62.5% eFG in its opener; San Antonio posted 96.3 and 44.1%.
- Sharp-board movement moved San Antonio from -5.5 toward -4.5 across major books, supporting Houston.
- Both teams have only one completed game; the efficiency gap is extremely thin-sample dependent.
Houston Rockets +3.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Novig
Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current net ratings are Houston +18.4 and San Antonio -11.1; 2025 full-season ratings were +5.25 and +7.87.
- Expected starters include Houston's Durant and Sengun; only San Antonio has a likely top-three player, Fox, listed questionable.
- The current ratings are based on one game, so the unusually wide model gap is highly sample-sensitive.
Game total under 227.5 points
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Blended matchup projection is approximately 224, 225 points, about 3 points below the 227.5 center rung.
- Season-to-date pace is 98.0 for Houston and 108.0 for San Antonio; last-season pace was only 100.4 and 102.7.
- Last-season team totals were 225.2 for Houston and 231.4 for San Antonio; Houston's total profile finished 5.1 points below league median.
- San Antonio's expected lineup includes De'Aaron Fox, who is listed questionable; confirmation or a favorable health update could raise scoring.
Game total under 225.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- estimated 221.4 points, 4.1 below the 225.5 rung.
- Opponent-adjusted last-10 inputs imply roughly 212.8 points; pace averages 99.36 HOU and 99.98 SAS.
- The broader total moved from 226.5, 227.5 to 224.5; ProphetX still offers the adjacent 225.5 rung.
- Fox, Adams, Sheppard and Keldon remain questionable; projected starters are not confirmed.

Show all 18 picks

Houston Rockets +5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: last-season net ratings (SAS +7.87, HOU +5.25) with home adjustment put the read near Spurs -5, matching the rung.
- Pinnacle is Spurs -5, within 0.0 points of this ProphetX number.
- Houston's current 2026 regular-season rating is +18.4 versus San Antonio's -11.1, making the baseline sample noisy and the projection uncertain.
Houston Rockets spread +5.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 57.0% fair cover from a shrunk rating blend: HOU current net +18.4 versus SAS -11.1, tempered by last-season +5.2 versus +7.9.
- Pinnacle reference is Spurs -5 (-106/-104), devigging to 49.8% for Houston +5; the +5.5 rung is within 0.5 points.
- De'Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson are questionable; the expected Spurs lineup is not official and Fox availability is load-bearing.
Victor Wembanyama over 10.5 total rebounds
+79%Won
Taken at −126 on DraftKings
NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 38 of 67 regular-season games in 2025-26 reached 11+ rebounds (56.7%).
- Aggregate 2025-26 baseline: 14.13 rebounds per 36 over 67 games and 1,910 minutes.
- Current regular-season opener: 13 rebounds in 34.15 minutes; expected starter with no current injury designation.
- The 2026-27 regular-season sample is only one game; five preseason games averaged 5.2 rebounds in 15.89 minutes.
San Antonio Spurs spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model estimate: Spurs cover probability 58%; fair decimal odds 1.72 versus 53¢ contract cost.
- 2025 full-season net rating: San Antonio +7.87, Houston +5.25; January-April split: Spurs +9.68, Rockets +3.34.
- Season scoring margin was +8.07 for San Antonio versus +5.22 for Houston, supporting a home-favorite baseline above the market line.
- Projected, not confirmed, lineups; Steven Adams remains Questionable for Houston and could alter the matchup.
Game over 235.5 totalLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: the Kalshi contract was rechecked at 29¢; the initial raw 0.42 quote was a fraction (42¢), not 42.0.
- Live score is 130 through 26:40, an approximately 234-point scoring pace before the final 21:20; my combined projection is 236.0 versus a Kalshi ladder center near 234.5.
- San Antonio's 108.0 season pace is 10 possessions above Houston's 98.0; Spurs are the more likely tempo dictator in this mismatch.
- Only one 2026 regular-season game supplies each team's pace and efficiency baseline; pace_l10_delta is 0.0 for both.
Game over 223.5 total
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: roughly 230 points; the 223.5 Kalshi rung is about 6.5 points below the pace-efficiency estimate.
- San Antonio dictates tempo: 108 pace versus Houston's 98; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so this is a style mismatch read, not schedule analysis.
- Matchup efficiency supports scoring: Houston 130.6 ORTG versus San Antonio 107.4 DRTG, and San Antonio 96.3 ORTG versus Houston 112.2 DRTG.
- De'Aaron Fox is officially questionable in the 5:00 PM NBA report; his absence could lower San Antonio's creation and tempo materially.
Victor Wembanyama under 10.5 rebounds
−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on DraftKings
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wembanyama's five current-season rebound totals are 13, 8, 5, 7, 6; average 7.8.
- He has gone under 10.5 rebounds in four of five current-season games.
- His current-season minutes have generally been below a full workload, limiting rebounding opportunity.
- The one over was 13 rebounds, showing the line can be cleared when minutes and activity spike.
Victor Wembanyama under 25.5 points
+81%Won
Taken at −123 on DraftKings
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wembanyama's five current-season games: 12, 14, 19, 13, 9 points; average 13.4.
- He has stayed below 25.5 in all five games, with only one game above 18 points.
- DraftKings under -123 is better than FanDuel's -128 on the same 25.5 line.
- Five-game sample is thin and may understate his normal minutes.
San Antonio Spurs YES game winnerFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Late ScratchDown 54% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fox's 2025 on/off plus-minus scales to +9.7 on versus +6.4 off per 48 minutes, a 3.3-point proxy.
- Discounting the on/off estimate for bench depth still supports roughly 2.5 points of lineup value.
- The prior-season plus-minus proxy is noisy and is not a true net-rating split; current-season sample is one game.
San Antonio Spurs spread −5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Home Floor ChalkDown 37% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model fair margin is Spurs -5.7, giving a 52% cover probability at -5.5.
- San Antonio has one more rest day: last game Oct. 20 versus Houston Oct. 21.
- Both projected lineups are expected, not confirmed; De'Aaron Fox is questionable but not counted as out.
Houston Rockets +5.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Late Scratch LedgerDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Vassell shifts to PF in the expected five; Keldon's prior Spurs on/off profile was near-neutral, leaving roughly a 1-point Houston replacement edge.
- Harris' prior Detroit split was +21.1 versus +13.6 plus/minus per 100 minutes on/off; Houston's Durant-Sengun size can attack the replacement frontcourt.
- Steven Adams remained Questionable at 5:20 PM; his availability could reduce Houston's frontcourt matchup edge.
Over 224.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- opponent-adjusted prior-season and last-10 blend projects roughly 228, 229 total points, 3.5, 4.5 above 224.5.
- Recent pace profile is supportive: Houston 99.5 possessions and San Antonio 103.0 across the prior 10; neither is on a back-to-back.
- Pinnacle also posts 224.5, with the over at -105; independent cashing likelihood is about 59%, apart from price quality.
- De'Aaron Fox is questionable with a right-wrist sprain; his absence could move the projection by 2+ points, so this is reduced to a lean.

Questions

Who won Rockets vs. Spurs?

The Rockets won 114–110 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.