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Bulls vs. BucksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Bulls
132–125Final
Bucks
Score by period
Team1234T
CHI17444130132
MIL32304221125

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Bulls to win 47¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 3-15 on this game · −66% return

  1. Chicago Bulls to win2 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Tempo Boss
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • Both lineups remain expected; Nic Claxton is out, and early-season one-game form is noisy.
      Tempo Boss
      • Bulls averaged 105.5 possessions and 17.62 fast-break points in 2025, versus Milwaukee's 100.5 and 11.70.
      • Winning-game pace: Bulls 105.9 possessions versus 104.8 in losses; Bucks 101.3 versus 99.46.
      • Both lineups are projected rather than confirmed; Jordan Hawkins is questionable and Nic Claxton is out for Chicago.
    • Milwaukee Bucks to win2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsDrift, Crowd Echo
      Why 2 models like it
      Drift
      • Model 55.5% Milwaukee: 2025 same-side net rating was -4.35 at home for Milwaukee versus -6.57 on the road for Chicago.
      • Current 2026 efficiency reinforces Milwaukee: net rating -11.6 versus Chicago -38.5, though each team has only one game.
      • Both current-season samples contain one game; Chicago's -38.5 net rating may be extreme noise.
      Crowd Echo
      • Current regular-season ratings favor Milwaukee by 26.9 net-rating points after one game; home court and Chicago's Nic Claxton absence support the adjustment.
      • Both teams have only one current regular-season game, so the rating gap is a highly thin sample.
    • Milwaukee Bucks spread −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Power rating 52.5% to cover: Milwaukee net rating -11.6 versus Chicago -38.5; pace 104.1 versus 111.7; both have five rest days.
      • Both teams have only one current-season game; the rating is heavily shrunk toward prior baselines and remains sample-sensitive.
    • Milwaukee Bucks −6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on Novig

      Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected Milwaukee margin is 14.8: blended net-rating differential 12.8 plus 2.0 home court.
      • Using a 12-point NBA margin standard deviation, a 14.8-point projection gives 75.5% cover probability at -6.5.
      • Both current-season ratings are one-game samples: Milwaukee is -11.6 and Chicago -38.5 in net rating.
    • Game total under 238.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Blended pace projects roughly 104 possessions, with a 234, 236 point efficiency range.
      • Last-season offensive ratings were 110.5 (Chicago) and 110.4 (Milwaukee); both defenses allowed 115.6+.
      • Both teams opened with conservative regular-season scoring profiles: Chicago 92, Milwaukee 116.
      • Both defenses were poor last season, so transition scoring or hot three-point shooting can clear 239.
    • Game total under 239.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Novig

      First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last-season team averages totaled 226.9 points at 102.7 combined possessions.
      • Projected tempo is about 103 possessions after accounting for the changed starting groups and first-year coaches.
      • Bulls add high-usage Norman Powell while Milwaukee adds Tyler Herro, but the matchup still projects below 239.5.
      • Both starting lineups are expected rather than confirmed; late changes could materially alter pace or efficiency.
    Show all 16 picks
    1. Myles Turner over 2.5 three-pointers madeLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 30¢ on Novig

      Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Turner's last-10 played regular-season games produced 7.6 3PA/36; 32.25 projected minutes implies roughly 7.1 matchup-adjusted attempts.
      • Bulls allowed 38.21 opponent 3PA per game in 2025 versus a 36.86 league rate, a bottom-third perimeter defense.
      • The attempt sample is only seven played games among the last ten; DNPs and role changes add noise.
    2. Under 240.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 233 total points from 106.5 possessions and blended offensive/defensive efficiency.
      • Bucks averaged 104.6 possessions over the last 10; matchup pace is pulled toward Milwaukee's slower profile.
      • Sportsbook total rose from 238.5 to 239.5, 240.5, leaving room for an overreaction.
      • Both lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; late rotation news could change pace or efficiency.
    3. Chicago Bulls +1.5 spread
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model makes Bulls +1.5 a 55% cover; 4.6 points above the sportsbook-reference 50.4% Bulls probability.
      • Pinnacle's Milwaukee -1.0 is within one point of the -1.5 main spread; the US +1.5 rung is the matching liquid ladder.
      • Chicago's projected lineup is not confirmed and Nic Claxton is officially out.
    4. Game total under 234.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

      Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Split-adjusted projection is approximately 233 points, 6.5 below Pinnacle's 239.5 main line; the 3-point gate clears.
      • 2025 venue-role baselines: Chicago visitor 110.8 ORtg/106.1 pace; Milwaukee home 114.0 ORtg/100.1 pace, each shrunk 50% toward its role league average.
      • Adjusted pace is about 103 possessions; the 234.5 Kalshi rung is the nearest rung above the projection and is the preferred under.
      • Only one 2026 game exists for each team, so the October blend leans heavily on 2025 venue-role data.
    5. Game total under 240.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2025 combined-total baselines average 232.7 points: Chicago 237.8, Milwaukee 227.5.
      • Milwaukee stayed under 240.5 in 65 of 82 games; Chicago did so in 50 of 82.
      • The two 2026 openers totaled 227 and 244, averaging 235.5 points.
      • The market moved from 238.5 to 240.5 and Pinnacle under juice eased from -111 to -105, signaling over support.
    6. Milwaukee Bucks over 7.5 marginLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

      Margin NotchUp 80% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The 7.5 rung is relatively cheap: only a 2¢ drop from 6.5 despite the empirical mass around the key 7-point margin.
      • Cross-check: DraftKings/FanDuel show Milwaukee around -1.5, while Pinnacle is -1, with no one-point move in the last hour.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; Giddey, Collins and Hawkins are probable, and Nic Claxton is out.
    7. Game under 226.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • live score is 44 with 0:45 left in Q1; the first-quarter scoring rate projects below 226.5 before regression.
      • Bulls are the tempo pusher: 111.7 regular-season pace versus Milwaukee's 104.1, with 28.9 versus 26.8 current possessions.
      • Five-game rolling pace is nearly even (Bulls 107.1, Bucks 107.6); that limits the pace-upside case despite Chicago's faster season mark.
      • Current-season efficiency samples are one regular-season game per team; the rolling matchup efficiency read is noisy.
    8. Under 240.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Novig

      Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Expected five-man on-court pace is 115.7 CHI and 114.7 MIL, a 115.2-possession blend.
      • Five-man ORtg/DRtg matchup implies 0.811 CHI PPP and 1.253 MIL PPP; projected total is 237.7 with no rest adjustment.
      • Both starting groups are expected, not officially confirmed; the latest lineup timestamp is 3:05 AM PDT.
    9. Chicago Bulls-Milwaukee Bucks under 239.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tempo Clock projects approximately 235 total points, 4.5 below the 239.5 rung.
      • Pace blend is about 104 possessions: Bulls last-10 108.9 and season 105.2; Bucks last-10 100.3 and season 100.2.
      • Pinnacle also posts 239.5, with its under at -107; ProphetX improves that to -103.
      • Only one current-season regular-season game exists for each team, so the prior-season blend is thin and this is capped at LEAN.
    10. Norman Powell under 20.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on FanDuel

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Powell scored 15, 9, and 16 points in his three 2026 games; all stayed below 20.5.
      • His minutes were 22.25, 14.57, and 22.37, with no 30-minute workload in the sample.
      • FanDuel -115 is playable against a market range of -125 to -104 across the pulled books.
      • Only three current-season games establish the baseline; the sample is thin.

    Questions

    Who won Bulls vs. Bucks?

    The Bulls won 132–125 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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