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Mavericks vs. PacersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Mavericks
121–105Final
Pacers
Score by period
Team1234T
DAL44332123121
IND27163329105

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 240 total 51¢

Why Drift likes it: 25/75 current-to-2025 blend: team totals 240.5 current and 233.3 last-season combined, projecting 235.1.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-6 on this game · +54% return

  1. Game total under 240.54 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    4 modelsHigh Bar, First Month +2
    Why 4 models like it
    High Bar
    • 240.5 is 7.5 points above the Mavericks-Pacers current-season and last-10 combined scoring average of 233.0.
    • Prior-season combined scoring average was 226.5, reinforcing regression against this elevated number.
    • Current-season and last-10 samples are only one game per team, so 233.0 is highly unstable.
    First Month
    • Last-season scoring averages: Dallas 114.1 plus Indiana 112.4 equals 226.5 points.
    • Last-season pace was 105.2 Dallas and 103.6 Indiana; roster additions do not justify a 14-point jump above that scoring baseline.
    • Both projected lineups are unconfirmed; Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard are questionable for Indiana.
    Cheap Side
    • Last-10 pace: Dallas 105.5, Indiana 104.6; projected game pace is 105.0 possessions.
    • Blended last-10 offense/defense rates produce a 236.2-point mean before any rest boost; both teams have normal rest.
    • Both starting groups are expected, not confirmed; Nesmith and Sheppard remain questionable.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 233 combined points in each team's only 2026 regular-season game, below 240.5.
    • Last-season offense/defense blend projects roughly 233.3 points for this matchup.
    • The sample is only one regular-season game per team; current offensive form is highly uncertain.
  2. Indiana Pacers to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Global Pacers price is 69.5¢; the matching Polymarket US contract is executable at a 70¢ buyer cost.
    • No fresh Pacers moneyline fill appears in mooseborzoii's visible trade feed; this is a timestamped existing position, not a newly observed wager.
  3. Under 240 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25/75 current-to-2025 blend: team totals 240.5 current and 233.3 last-season combined, projecting 235.1.
    • Blended pace is near 103.8 possessions versus a 240-point market; current 2026 samples are only one game each.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Aaron Nesmith is questionable and Dallas has multiple frontcourt absences.
  4. Indiana Pacers −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carlisle has six years on staff and a 1,013-923 career record; Dallas's D. May is a first-year head coach at 0-1.
    • Dallas's last five net ratings average -8.8; Indiana's average +1.9, giving the established scheme a measurable early-season edge.
    • Dallas is expected to play without Lively II, Aldama, Martin, Howard and Biberovic, leaving Gafford as the lone projected starting big against Siakam-Zubac size.
    • Projected lineups remain expected, not confirmed, with the latest update about an hour before tip.
  5. Ivica Zubac under 15 points
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's 13.5+ win rung is 30¢ and the median spread rung is Indiana by 7.5, creating meaningful truncation risk for a favorite starter.
    • Zubac has scored under 15 in 4 of 5 games, averaging 11.4 points in 22.0 minutes.
    • The points ladder is monotone: 15+ YES 55¢, 20+ YES 26¢, 25+ YES 6¢; the 15+ contract has a 2¢ spread and 51 contracts traded.
    • Zubac's latest game reached 16 points in 33.6 minutes, showing the close-game path to a loss.
  6. Pascal Siakam under 25 points
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's spread ladder puts the median margin near 7.5 and Indiana's 13.5+ win rung at 30%.
    • Siakam has scored under 25 in 4 of 5 current-season games, averaging 16.6 points in 23.7 minutes.
    • His Kalshi points ladder is monotone: 25+ YES 41¢, 30+ YES 20¢; the 25+ contract has a 1¢ spread and 110 contracts traded.
    • The sample is only five games; his one 30-point game came in 35.3 minutes.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Total under 239.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended last-10/season estimate is about 236.3, 3.2 points below the 239.5 rung.
    • The total rose from 235.5 to 240.5 in the preview; the under projection still has room at this adjacent rung.
    • Both teams have five rest days with no back-to-back flag; pace is near 105 possessions in the recent sample.
    • Starters and inactives remain expected rather than confirmed; late availability can materially change the estimate.
  2. Cooper Flagg over 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    Shaded PropUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 points median is 25.5, above the 24.5-point line.
    • Last-10 scoring rate is 266 points in 286.85 minutes, or 0.927 points/min.
    • The lineup feed is expected rather than officially confirmed; Cooper Flagg is not listed questionable.
  3. Dallas Mavericks spread +4.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season net ratings: Dallas -5.30 versus Indiana -7.77, a 2.48-point Dallas edge before home court.
    • The first-game net-rating swing was 22.8 points toward Indiana, a one-game sample consistent with small-sample overreaction.
    • Listed incoming rotation minutes favor Dallas 58 to 22; the roster adjustment does not support a four-plus-point Pacers edge.
    • Lineups are expected, not confirmed; Dallas lists Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama out, while Aaron Nesmith is questionable for Indiana.
  4. Dallas Mavericks spread +8.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pacers moved from -5.5 to -7.5, a full two points after Dallas availability news.
    • 10/22 1:10, 1:13 PM reports changed Lively II and Aldama to Out for Friday.
    • Estimated Dallas adjustment is approximately 0.5 points; replacement depth absorbs more than priced.
    • Pacers can win by nine or more if Dallas repeats its -17.5 opening-game defensive level.
  5. Game under 250.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • expected total 240.5 versus the live 250.5 Kalshi rung, a 10.0-point gap.
    • Tempo: Indiana should dictate; regular-season pace is 106.8 versus Dallas 103.4, while both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Efficiency blend: Dallas 106.3 ORtg versus Indiana 112.4 DRtg, and Indiana 115.2 ORtg versus Dallas 123.8 DRtg; combined rate is about 228.9 per 100 possessions.
    • Dallas and Indiana already scored 71 in Q1; another game played at that live scoring pace defeats the under.
  6. Andrew Nembhard under 15 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Usage VacuumDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McConnell is confirmed out; Nembhard's 10-game without-McConnell sample falls to 14.6 points and 25.87 minutes.
    • His four current-game lines are 18, 11, 10, 4 points; average minutes are 23.14.
    • The lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed; a late rotation change could alter minutes.
  7. Game total under 237.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Tailgate

    Opener GapNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Tailgate quotes under 237.5 at 49c; both sides are live and total 1.01 at the 3:42am PT stamp.
    • Pinnacle opened 235.5 at -112 over / -103 under; devigged opener fair was 49.0% under.
    • Tailgate is 2.0 points above that opener; the brief's 2.0, 2.5 points per total point adjustment implies 53.0, 54.0% fair.
    • Pinnacle has moved up to 238, so the opener may be stale and current sharp information points toward a higher total.
  8. Indiana Pacers wins by over 7.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Ramp UpNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Kyrie Irving played 23.75 minutes Wednesday after a 19-month absence; ESPN reports Dallas will gradually ramp him up.
    • Dallas averaged -3.45 margin in its last 10 Kyrie appearances versus -7.73 in its last 10 without him.
    • A likely ~24-minute workload is about 12 minutes below Irving's 36.05-minute with-team sample, leaving Indiana the stronger late-game side.
    • Dallas could extend Irving beyond 24 minutes despite the ramp-up language; no formal cap is published.
  9. Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers under 240.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Minutes CapDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NBA injury report observed 2:10 PM PDT confirms Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic and T.J. McConnell out.
    • I estimate roughly 24 high-leverage rotation minutes removed and about 2 points of total impact; replacement groups project near 104 versus 111 points per 100.
    • Dallas and Indiana lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard are questionable.
  10. Game total under 228.5Long shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25-game regular-season venue blend projects 228.5 points: DAL road 107.8 ORtg/103.7 pace and IND home 110.7 ORtg/103.5 pace, each shrunk 50% toward league averages.
    • Model is 11.0, 12.0 points below the sharp reference: FanDuel/DraftKings 239.5 and Pinnacle 240.0.
    • Lineups are still expected rather than confirmed; Aaron Nesmith is questionable and late rotation news could raise scoring variance.
  11. Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers under 240.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 237.3 total and 58.0% under 240.5 from current team offense/defense ratings.
    • Dallas five-game offense/defense: 113.4 / 122.8; Indiana: 119.8 / 118.6.
    • The five-game form sample includes preseason games, where rotations are not representative.
  12. Game under 242.5 total
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total ~240.6: 105.1 blended possessions × 228.85 combined efficiency per 100.
    • Indiana's 106.8 pace is 3.4 above Dallas's 103.4; Indiana is the slight tempo dictator, but both pace deltas are 0.0.
    • Indiana offense 115.2 versus Dallas defense 123.8; Dallas offense 106.3 versus Indiana defense 112.4.
    • Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard remain questionable; expected lineups are unconfirmed, capping this at LEAN.
  13. under 240.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended total is 235.0, 5.5 points below the 240.5 rung; both teams have only one current-season game, so prior-season data is required.
    • Prior-season offense/defense midpoint totals 233.3; the two opening games nudge the blend upward but not to 240.5.
    • Pace is not materially elevated: prior-season averages were 105.2 Dallas and 103.6 Indiana possessions; current games were 103.4 and 106.8 after five rest days.
    • The most likely loss is efficient early shooting and transition pushing a 240.5-plus total; Dallas allowed 128 and Indiana scored 123 in their openers.
  14. Tyrese Haliburton over 9.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home baseline is 10.6 assists with a 63.5% hit rate at 10+ in the cited sample.
    • Dallas enters with a bottom-five defensive profile and both teams project for a fast matchup.
    • Haliburton just logged 12 assists in 33.5 minutes in his latest game, supporting full workload.
    • His last five-game average is only 5.4 assists, a major divergence below 9.5.

Questions

Who won Mavericks vs. Pacers?

The Mavericks won 121–105 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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