Raptors vs. PistonsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLittle Caesars Arena · Detroit
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 33 | 19 | 28 | 45 | 125 |
| DET | 33 | 26 | 34 | 36 | 129 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 219.5 50¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Detroit's 108.2 preseason pace is 3.0 possessions above Toronto's 105.2; Detroit is the likely tempo dictator.
Shot ClockUp 1% return this season · 238 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +35% return
- Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons under 220.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 2025 team totals profiles were below league median: Detroit 227.4 and Toronto 226.4 versus 231.0.
- Toronto's five regular starters are out, removing its primary half-court creators and reducing expected offensive continuity.
- Detroit's transition-defense and spot-up-defense profiles support a lower-efficiency game against Toronto's replacement lineup.
- Toronto's young replacement group may play faster and create a high-possession preseason game.
- Game total over 219.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Detroit's 108.2 preseason pace is 3.0 possessions above Toronto's 105.2; Detroit is the likely tempo dictator.
- Base pace×efficiency projection is 230.5 points: Toronto offense 116.2 vs Detroit defense 100.9, Detroit offense 106.9 vs Toronto defense 108.1.
- After a roughly 5-point availability haircut for Toronto's confirmed core absences, expected total is 225.5 versus the 219.5 Kalshi reference.
- Toronto's five reported regulars out materially change the rotation and could reduce offensive efficiency below the haircut.
- Game total over 221.5 points+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tempo driver: Detroit's 108.2 preseason possessions exceeds Toronto's 105.2; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so Detroit is the faster baseline likely to dictate.
- Cross-efficiency: Toronto 116.2 ORtg vs Detroit 100.9 DRtg implies 108.6 points/100; Detroit 106.9 vs Toronto 108.1 implies 107.5.
- Conservative preseason/2025 blend, with a lineup-uncertainty haircut, projects 227 total points versus the exact 221.5 Kalshi rung (+5.5).
- Toronto's projected starters are unconfirmed; web reporting lists Alijah Martin, Nate Bittle, Allen Graves and Trayce Jackson-Davis as availability questions, while NBA data flags Hepburn and Bittle.
Questions
Who won Raptors vs. Pistons?
The Pistons won 129–125 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.