Who's winning the Giannis trade so far?
Miami, barely, but the starting five ESPN's Ramona Shelburne called a defensive backbone is -19. In Milwaukee, Herro and Jaquez win with the Bucks' starters (+37) and lose in every other lineup (-110).
Milwaukee's starting five is winning, and Miami's is getting run over
ESPN's Ramona Shelburne wrote on Oct. 19 that Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell "can absolutely be the backbone of a stifling, top-ranked defense." All four start with Klay Thompson, and that five gives up 133 points per 100 trips. Only one of the league's most-used lineups is worse.
The surprise is in Milwaukee, where Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. win with the Bucks' starting five: +37 in 75 minutes. Put either of them in any other lineup and the Bucks are -110.
Giannis is right about the Heat's starting five
After Monday's 138-117 loss to the Lakers, Giannis singled out his own unit. "The starting group, it's almost like we're going through the motions," he told the Miami Herald's Anthony Chiang. On the defense more broadly, he added: "Right now we don't trust one another."
Erik Spoelstra has started Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis and Bam Adebayo in all seven games. Together they're -19 in 77 minutes and give up 133 points per 100 trips. Every other Heat lineup combined is -21 in 259 minutes.
Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel saw it on opening night: "Such little defensive deterrence at the outset." The backbone Shelburne promised does show up at the rim, where teams take the 3rd-fewest shots against Miami. The leak is outside: opponents make 41% of their threes against the Heat, 29th in the league, as we flagged last week.
-57Klay Thompson plus-minus
-65Andrew Wiggins plus-minus- Bobby Portis, the other player Miami got, comes off the bench and is +12, best on the team.
- Giannis lineups with Portis instead of the starters allow 108 per 100, a bit better than the league's 110.
Herro and Jaquez win with the Bucks' starters and lose everywhere else
Kurt Helin of NBC Sports called it his "surprising stat of the week": the Bucks' starting five "has a +20 net rating so far this season." He's right: Ryan Rollins, Herro, Jaquez, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner are +37 together over 170 possessions. They also defend, allowing 100 points per 100 trips, 5th-best of the league's 16 most-used lineups.
When that group breaks up, Milwaukee falls apart: every other Bucks minute adds up to -128, and it isn't the deep bench. Lineups with Herro or Jaquez but not the full starting five are -110 in 155 minutes. Lineups with neither are -11 in 97 minutes.
Second quarters are the worst (-52), when starters and reserves mix. Miami is the reverse, losing ground in the first and third quarters, when its starters play the most.
The Bucks sink in second quarters, the Heat in the first and third
21.9Herro points a game
16.6Jaquez points a game
8.7Ware rebounds a game- Herro is -60 and Jaquez -55 for the season. Kasparas Jakucionis has the worst plus-minus on the team (-68), and Kel'el Ware is -44.
Giannis is scoring 28 a step farther from the rim
In June, ESPN's Zach Kram and Ben Golliver graded the trade B+ for Milwaukee and B- for Miami, warning that Giannis and Adebayo "might need some time to find an effective fit on offense."
Giannis is putting up 28.4 points and 12.3 rebounds, but only half his shots come within 3 feet of the rim, down from two-thirds last season in Milwaukee. Adebayo is also taking fewer threes (27% of his shots, down from 35%), so two bigs share the paint.
Giannis has moved a step back from the rim in Miami
He's making up for it from 4 and 5 feet out, where he's 22 of 29. The league makes 44% from there, and Giannis made 38% last season. When that cools off, Miami will need another answer.
Giannis is 22 of 29 from 4-5 feet, a rate nobody keeps up
| Zone | FG | Pct | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim (0-3 ft) | 46/67 | 68.7% | 66.1% |
| 4-5 feet | 22/29 | 75.9% | 43.8% |
| 6-14 feet | 3/8 | 37.5% | 43.1% |
| Long twos (15+ ft) | 3/12 | 25.0% | 39.3% |
| Threes | 4/17 | 23.5% | 34.8% |
Miami is ahead, and has the easier fix
The day of the trade, Kurt Helin of NBC Sports wrote that "even with a healthy Antetokounmpo, the Miami Heat are not a contender today, as constructed," and that Bucks fans "are now going to watch their team rebuild for years."
That rebuild won't start with a high pick next summer: Milwaukee's own 2027 first goes to New Orleans or Atlanta, per Hoops Rumors. The picks from Miami are years away: unprotected firsts in 2031 and 2033 and a 2030 swap, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and ESPN.
Miami is ahead, losing by about 7 fewer points a night against similar schedules. The Heat's problem is one lineup Spoelstra can change any night, starting Wednesday against the Clippers (game page). Milwaukee's is harder, since Herro and Jaquez only win inside one group; the Bucks are at Boston the same night (game page), and both games are on our NBA predictions page.
Each starting five has played about a game and a half together, so treat +37 and -19 as early signs.
Questions people ask
Who won the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade?
So far, Miami, barely: 2-5 to Milwaukee's 1-6. But the Bucks' starting five with Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is +37, while Miami's starting five with Giannis is -19. Herro and Jaquez are -110 in Milwaukee's other lineups.
What did the Bucks get for Giannis?
Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick in 2026 (Nate Ament), unprotected firsts in 2031 and 2033, a 2030 pick swap and a 2033 second. The trade became official July 6, 2026.
Why are the Heat losing with Giannis?
Mostly their starting five, which is -19 in 77 minutes and allows 133 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are also making 41% of their threes against Miami.
Do the Bucks have their own 2027 first-round pick?
No. Milwaukee's 2027 first goes to New Orleans or Atlanta, so a losing season doesn't give the Bucks a high pick next summer.
How we did this
Snapp's NBA warehouse: team and player box scores, NBA.com five-man lineup stats (as of Nov. 3, 2026), quarter scores and NBA.com shot locations, regular-season games through Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. 'Most-used lineups' are the 16 five-man groups with 50+ minutes. Plus-minus is the point margin while a player or lineup is on the floor. Points per 100 possessions are points divided by possessions. Trade terms from ESPN and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel; pick ownership from Hoops Rumors.