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FinalEmpower Field at Mile High
Rams1-1
26–30Final
Broncos1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
LAR7901026
DEN00161430

Top model pick, graded

Won

Denver Broncos exact margin 1-6 17¢

Why Exact Change likes it: Pinnacle's live anchor is Rams -1.5 (-103), making Denver a narrow underdog.

Exact ChangeUp 93% return this season · 93 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 13-24 on this game · −20% return

  1. Los Angeles Rams to win8 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    8 models+EV Volume Handicapper, ProphetX Pairs +6
    Why 8 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • PIT matchup features favor Los Angeles: -0.07 away offensive EPA/play vs Denver's -0.18 and .5249 vs .4066 success rate.
    • Rams also lead in explosive-play rate (.1499 vs .1192) and points/drive (1.62 vs 1.53).
    • Denver has home altitude and one extra rest day; its pass-rush grade is 78.2 versus Los Angeles at 63.3.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • PIT matrix favors LAR: +0.11 offensive EPA/play, +0.09 defensive EPA/play, +0.12 success rate versus Denver.
    • Pinnacle is Rams -117; reference agrees directionally, while the projection makes the fair line -122 (55%).
    • NFL sample is Partial: the PIT features use only two current-season games, below the three-game Full threshold.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • That historical pattern was profitable in 2023 (+2.6%) and 2024 (+4.3%).
    • Model B projects Los Angeles at 58%: +0.11 offensive EPA and +0.09 defensive EPA edge.
    • Denver has home field, altitude, one extra rest day, and a strong 78.2 pass-rush grade.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Rams lead opponent-adjusted form in offense EPA/play (-0.07 vs -0.18), success rate (.5249 vs .4066), and points/drive (1.62 vs 1.53).
    • Rams defense is better by EPA allowed (-0.11 vs -0.02); recent five-game EPA/play is +0.03 vs Denver -0.06.
    • Denver has home-field and one additional rest day, while altitude can increase late-game variance.
  2. Los Angeles Rams −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    2 modelsNFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model, NFL Spread Detective
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread: Rams -3.0, a 1.5-point discrepancy versus the current Rams -1.5 consensus.
    • 2026 PIT features favor Los Angeles: +0.09 EPA/play offensive edge, .525 vs .407 success rate, and 1.62 vs 1.53 points/drive.
    • Pinnacle moved from Rams -2.5 to -1.5 before kickoff, so sharp money may already reflect late information.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Rams EPA strategy score +0.79 vs Denver +0.11: +0.68 edge.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.40 clears the 0.20 trigger; full edge clears 0.50.
    • Last-10 sample contains only two 2026 games plus eight prior regular-season games.
  3. Game total under 44.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Pigskin Pete
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent total estimate: 59% under, with a fair total near 41.5 versus the 44.5 market.
    • Rams’ recent defense allowed -0.09 EPA/play; Denver’s recent offense produced -0.06 EPA/play and a 0.43 success rate.
    • Denver home altitude and short fields from turnovers can overwhelm a low-tempo projection.
    Pigskin Pete
    • 64.96 combined seconds per offensive play supports a below-market pace projection.
    • Through two games, Denver trails Los Angeles by 0.11 EPA/play on offense and 0.09 on defense.
    • Denver's defense has the stronger recent allowed-EPA figure (-0.11 over the six-game window).
  4. Denver Broncos exact margin 1-6Long shot
    +488%Won

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is Rams -1.5 (-103), making Denver a narrow underdog.
    • Empirical 2016-2026 NFL histogram: margins 3, 4, and 6 contribute 728 of 2,800 absolute margins; the 1-6 band is 39.8%.
    • A normal baseline centered on Rams +1.5 with empirical 14.15-point margin SD, reweighted to that histogram, estimates Denver 1-6 at about 19.4%.
    • Denver must win, and specifically by 1-6; a Rams win, tie, or Denver win by 7+ loses.
  5. Under total 39.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current form is offense-down: Denver/L.A. off EPA -0.18/-0.07 and points per drive 1.53/1.62.
    • Full key-number mass computed this wake; the 39.5 rung is live on both sides at status OPEN and tradable true.
    • Two-game samples make the -1.0-point model adjustment fragile; this is PARTIAL, not FULL coverage.
  6. Denver Broncos spread −3.5
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The shifted SD-13.5 distribution gives p_anchor 35.0% for Denver -3.5; modest home/Puka adjustment gives p_model 35.5%.
    • Puka Nacua is listed doubtful; if he plays effectively, the modest Denver adjustment is wrong.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Los Angeles Rams spread over 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 16% last 7 days
  2. First-half total over 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver has 7 days, Los Angeles 6; the gap is small, not a short-week edge.
    • QB gate: current slot-rank-1 chart lists Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix; the official Denver preview expects both starters.
    • Pinnacle first-half total 22.5, Over -111/Under -103; devigged Over is 50.9%.
    • The 62% reference is derived across rungs, not a directly posted sharp 20.5 line.
  3. Davante Adams receiving yards over 69.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.5% snap share and 28 routes in Week 2, up from 54.1% and 23 in Week 1.
    • Adams posted 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 195 yards last week; the 69.5-yard line is 37% below his two-game average.
    • Rams have passed on 54.3% of plays this season, while the near-pick'em game market does not project a strongly run-heavy script.
    • Puka Nacua is doubtful, but the exact target redistribution is unconfirmed; Denver can bracket Adams.
  4. Under 43 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial model ledger moves the total down 1.0 point: slow paces 32.08/32.88 seconds per play and early offensive EPA -0.18/-0.07.
    • p_model under 43 is 48.2%, producing EV_model +6.9%; the main 44 is the CLV reference number at this wake.
    • Stafford and Nix are confirmed QB1s; 2,805-game key-number mass was computed this wake, with the partial tier limiting the adjustment.
    • Both teams have positive PROE (Denver 13.7%, Los Angeles 8.3%) and the Rams' early explosive rate is 15.0%, creating quick-score upside.
  5. Los Angeles Rams spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial tier, +1.0-point Rams margin adjustment: p_model 46.6% versus p_anchor 43.7%; EV_anchor +13.5%, EV_model +21.2% at ProphetX +160 (38.46c).
    • Puka Nacua is Doubtful and Kamren Kinchens is Doubtful for Los Angeles; the exchange may not yet fully reflect final inactive decisions.
  6. Kyren Williams over 53.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • O-line gate passed: Rams core OL logged 98.4%-100% prior-game snaps; only inactive Bill Murray is not a listed starter.
    • Run trench edge: Rams PFF run-block grade 85.1 versus Denver run-defense grade 49.3; Denver also has two DL ruled out.
    • Mechanism confirmed: Williams produced 126 yards on 23 carries, including +34.3 rush yards over expected last week despite 58.3% stacked-box attempts.
    • Pass trench is unfavorable: Rams pass-block grade 57.0 versus Denver pass-rush grade 70.5, which could create negative script or early-down disruption.
  7. Denver Broncos team total under 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver's offense is -0.26 EPA/play with 1.21 points per drive through three games.
    • The Rams' defense allows only +0.02 EPA/play; that matchup does not support Denver's 21.5-point median.
    • the board's full-game total 44.5 and Denver -1.5 imply roughly DEN 23.0/LAR 21.5, while the team-total ladder centers nearer DEN 21-22 and LAR 23-24; I believe the spread is the mispriced number, not this team total.
    • The Rams defense is not dominant by EPA allowed (+0.02), and Denver's home field could turn drives into field-goal range.
  8. Davante Adams over 71.5 receiving yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model CDF: 59% over versus 52.6% implied at DraftKings -111.
    • Adams has 16 targets and 221 yards on 51 routes through two games; early target share is 28.1%.
    • Puka Nacua is currently doubtful in both official and ESPN feeds, supporting target reallocation; simulated total 44.2 is within 0.3 points of the 44.5 market.
    • Nacua is doubtful, not confirmed inactive; active participation would materially reduce Adams's reallocation boost.
  9. Kyren Williams touchdowns 1+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 59.3% snap share and committee-lead RB; depth chart rank 1 at 6:02 AM PDT.
    • 12 rushing attempts in each of Los Angeles' first two games; he has scored twice across those games.
    • Los Angeles converted 4 of 6 red-zone trips; Denver allowed 3 touchdowns on 5 opponent red-zone trips.
    • Kyren's 59.3% share still leaves a meaningful Blake Corum committee role.
  10. Los Angeles Rams spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams -3 returns a push on an exact 3-point Rams win; Rams -3.5 loses that same outcome.
    • ProphetX prices Rams -3 at 41.67¢ (+140) versus Rams -3.5 at 38.46¢ (+160): only a 3.21¢ premium for the whole-number push outcome.
    • ProphetX is the only price reference used here; no independent sharp comparison is asserted.
  11. Game total over 44
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree and raw stakes are substantial.
    • Venue self-reference is the primary and only reference; no independent sharp confirmation was used.
  12. Denver Broncos spread +1.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing Denver +1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is 51.92¢ (displayed -108).
    • Venue self-reference is not independent evidence; queued orders can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among a few participants.
  13. Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sutton averages 2.5 receptions through two games, 28.6% below the 3.5-reception line.
    • He has only nine targets total, averaging 4.5 per game.
    • Denver's offense ranks poorly through two games: -.182 EPA per play and .407 success rate.
    • Two games is a very small sample, and Sutton can beat this with one efficient deep connection.
  14. Davante Adams over 68.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 110.5-yard average through two games is 61.3% above the 68.5-yard line.
    • Adams has 16 targets in two games, including 10 in Week 2.
    • Rams lead-in form: .525 offensive success rate and .150 explosive-play rate.
    • The two-game sample is thin and inflated by Adams's 195-yard Week 2.
  15. Los Angeles Rams first-half spread over 2.5Favorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver has the rest edge, 7 days to Los Angeles' 6; the counterweight is outweighed by the efficiency gap.
    • EPA to date: Rams offense -0.07 vs Denver -0.18 and Rams defense -0.11 vs Denver -0.02, a +0.20/play composite edge.
    • The 7-to-6 rest mismatch favors Denver in the exact first-half window this model targets.
  16. Los Angeles Rams first-half winner
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver has 7 rest days to Los Angeles' 6; the Rams still show a +0.12 success-rate edge (.5249 vs .4066).
    • Rams' offense is +0.11 EPA/play versus Denver's baseline, while the Rams' defensive EPA allowed is better by 0.09.
    • One rest day favors Denver, and Denver is at home; this is a small edge, not a rest-driven table-banger.
  17. Game total under 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver's offense is -0.18 EPA/play with a .4066 success rate through two games; the Rams defense is -0.11 EPA/play allowed.
    • Rams offensive EPA is only -0.07 despite a .5249 success rate; the matchup points to Denver struggling to sustain scoring.
    • Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix are the reported matchup QBs, but final game-day inactive confirmation is not yet posted at the time of the board read.
  18. Davante Adams over 5.5 receptions
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16 targets and 11 receptions through two games; 5.5 catches per game already clears this line.
    • DraftKings -118 is a modest lean versus FanDuel -130 and BetMGM -115; no recommendation-level price gap.
    • Denver has allowed only 186.5 passing yards per game, creating a difficult efficiency matchup.
  19. Game second-half total over 21.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1H 21.5 is 52¢ over, 2H 21.5 is 50¢, while the full-game total is 44.5.
    • Current-season points per drive are 1.53 Denver and 1.62 Los Angeles; the 32.08/32.88-second pace inputs keep possessions adequate.
    • Square-root scaling matters: half-game SD grows with sqrt(drives), not linear halving, leaving a wider 2H tail around the late-scoring bump.
    • Only two 2026 games per team make EPA and points-per-drive estimates noisy.
  20. Total Points under 45
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Through 2 completed 2026 games, Rams offense is -0.07 EPA/play and Broncos offense -0.18; both defenses are negative EPA allowed.
    • Pace is slow: 32.88 seconds/play for Los Angeles and 32.08 for Denver, versus 2025 priors near 29.93 and 29.62.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card has the Rams at 77.3 defense; Denver's current offense grade is 64.4, reinforcing a one-sided scoring drag.
    • Week 3 is partial coverage with only 2 completed games; the prior-season blend is flagged and this is capped at LEAN.
  21. Los Angeles Rams spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 to-date: LAR offense -0.07 vs DEN defense -0.02; DEN offense -0.18 vs LAR defense -0.11, producing a net Rams efficiency edge.
    • Latest 2026 PFF card: Rams 82.5 overall and 77.3 defense versus Denver 63.9 overall and 59.4 defense; coverage is 82.0 versus 57.5.
    • Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix are both rank-1 depth-chart QBs, roster-active as of 6:02 AM PT; the current game report has no QB designation. Rest is Denver 7 days versus Los Angeles 6, non-neutral.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's home field and one extra rest day turn the efficiency gap into a Broncos win or a one-point Rams win.
  22. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +26900

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle references backed both positions: Dallas +3.5 at -116 and Rams -1.5 at -112 on the captured board.
    • Most likely ticket loss: Baltimore wins by 4 or more, making Dallas +3.5 fail despite the home-offense projection.

Questions

Who won Rams vs. Broncos?

The Broncos won 30-26 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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