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FinalHuntington Bank Field
Steelers2-1
24–27Final
Browns2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
PIT7301424
CLE0210627

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Browns +3.5 57¢

Why Key Number Pairs likes it: Pinnacle's current Cleveland +3 reference supports a short Pittsburgh-favorite game script, not a Browns blowout thesis.

Key Number PairsDown 8% this season · 101 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-32 on this game · −36% return

  1. Denzel Boston over 37.5 receiving yards3 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 59, 95, and 41 receiving yards in his last three games average 65; 37.5 is 58% of that output.
    • FanDuel offers over 37.5 at -113, while the line sits well below the recent usage-based projection.
    • Denzel has only 4, 7, and 4 targets; a low-target game can miss despite full-time snaps.
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 20,000-simulation CDF: 71% over 37.5 yards versus 53.3% implied at -114.
    • Boston has 195 yards on 15 targets through three games; yardage cleared 37.5 in all three.
    • Route charting is only a two-game live sample, so usage is partially shrunk toward the depth-chart prior.
    Second Wind
    • 195 receiving yards on 15 targets through three games (65.0 yards per game).
    • Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. is OUT; Ramsey and Echols remain Questionable after limited Wednesday practices.
    • Three-game receiving sample is thin and Boston's 195 yards may include a high-end outlier.
  2. Cleveland Browns spread +2.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    2 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • DraftKings offers Browns +2.5 at +100; live Odds API quote captured 8:00 AM PT.
    • Pinnacle deals Browns +3 at -118, creating half-point protection versus the sharper reference.
    • Steelers defense grades much better: PFF 75.2 versus Cleveland 53.9.
    Number Earned
    • Model cover probability 55%; fair price approximately -122.
    • Steelers current net-EPA profile leads, but Cleveland home field and similar 3-game success rates compress the margin.
    • Joey Porter Jr. is out and Jalen Ramsey remains questionable/active with a wrist injury, weakening Pittsburgh's secondary.
  3. Harold Fannin Jr. over 4.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • Current TE1 role: 85.7% snap share, 88.3% route rate, 53 routes, and 18 targets through three games.
    • Recent opportunity climbed from 3 to 6 to 9 targets; receptions were 2, 5, and 7.
    • Target growth is a three-game trend and can regress toward the 2025 6.7-target-per-game role.
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 20,000-simulation CDF: 64% over 4.5 receptions versus 49.5% implied at +102.
    • Fannin has 14 receptions on 18 targets through three games, averaging 4.7 catches.
    • The route-participation sample is two charted games, requiring hierarchical shrinkage and capping conviction at medium.
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Through 3 2026 games, Pittsburgh's defense is -0.05 EPA/play versus Cleveland's +0.04; PFF defense grades are 75.2 vs 53.9.
    • Pittsburgh's offense is -0.09 EPA/play versus Cleveland's -0.15; the broader offense-defense efficiency profile favors Pittsburgh by roughly 0.15 EPA/play.
    • The efficiency sample is only 3 current-season games, so early-season variance is substantial.
    Long Way Home
    • Pittsburgh's current 2026 defense allows -0.06 EPA/play versus Cleveland's +0.06 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Pittsburgh also holds the offensive EPA edge: -0.10 per play versus Cleveland's -0.13, supporting the favorite's side.
    • The current-season sample is only six team-game rows, so EPA differences are noisy.
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent estimate 62.5% versus 58.7% devigged market probability; fair price approximately -167.
    • Steelers to-date defense EPA allowed -0.05/play versus Cleveland's +0.04.
    • Cleveland's recent five-game offense is better: -0.09 EPA/play, 45.2% success, and 1.79 points/drive versus Pittsburgh's 1.2 points/drive.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • through 3 games, Pittsburgh leads Cleveland by 0.06 offensive EPA/play and 0.09 defensive EPA/play.
    • Cleveland's official report lists C/G Elgton Jenkins, G Teven Jenkins and WR Tylan Wallace out; starters Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson were confirmed.
    • Only 3 current-season games inform the efficiency sample; early-season estimates are volatile.
  6. Game total under 37.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsShawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
    • Model estimate: 58% to finish under 37.5; fair price approximately -138.
    • Current score is 7-0 with 1:21 left in Q1; only 7 points are banked against a 37.5 live total.
    • The efficiency sample is extremely thin: 17 EPA-covered Pittsburgh plays and 3 Cleveland plays.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated under probability 57.5%; FanDuel break-even at -108 is 51.9% (+5.6 points).
    • Combined points per drive is 2.94; both teams rank poorly in current-season offensive EPA per play.
    • Cleveland's defense is weak: +0.04 EPA/play allowed to date can create short fields and explosive drives.
Show all 41 picks
  1. Fourth quarter ends levelLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT -0.5 at 0.43 and PIT +0.5 at 0.65 imply a 0.22 draw probability.
    • Direct fourth-quarter draw is 0.14: an eight-point structural contradiction on the same venue.
    • Screened 100 period contracts; 86 retained after 14 placeholder exclusions; the q4 ladder is monotonic.
    • Measured 2021, 2026 regular-season q4 ties were 15/279, 5.4%; 95% Wilson interval is 3.3%, 8.7%.
  2. Cleveland Browns +3.5High conviction
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's current Cleveland +3 reference supports a short Pittsburgh-favorite game script, not a Browns blowout thesis.
    • Both teams are 2-1, and the efficiency sample covers only three 2026 games.
  3. Jaylen Warren over 25.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 36.7 receiving-yard average over his last 3 games is 43.9% above the 25.5 line.
    • Warren cleared this number in all 3 games: 27, 34, and 49 yards.
    • Current usage data lists Warren as Pittsburgh's RB1; he has 27 route snaps in the latest usage sample.
    • Three-game sample; the 49-yard game came inside a 176-yard all-purpose eruption.
  4. Under total 37.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both offenses are negative in current-season EPA/play: Pittsburgh -0.09, Cleveland -0.15; points per drive are 1.42 and 1.52.
    • Forecast shows 70% rain probability with southwest winds 5, 10 mph and gusts to 20 mph, supporting lower scoring.
    • Each team has only three current-season games, so the form sample is below the FULL threshold.
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers spread over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number mixture gives p_anchor 42.7% for Pittsburgh winning by over 4.5; 1.7 points above the 41¢ price, within the 3-point derived-reference limit.
    • Partial rather than Full coverage: both teams have only 3 current-season games, below the 4-game form requirement.
  6. Cleveland Browns first team to score points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20 opening drives in 20 games each: Pittsburgh scored on 10 (50%); Cleveland scored on 5 (25%).
    • Current 10-game points per drive: Pittsburgh 1.56, Cleveland 1.39; offense EPA/play: -0.07 vs -0.18.
    • The first-score YES prices sum to 1.06 including a one-sided 0.01 none placeholder; Cleveland YES at 0.48 is the more overstated team leg.
    • Opening-kick receiver was not posted; possession order is the largest unmodeled input.
  7. Game 2Q total under 12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Regular-season points per drive are 1.42 for Pittsburgh and 1.52 for Cleveland across three games each.
    • Pace is moderate at 29.68 seconds/play for Pittsburgh and 31.01 for Cleveland; no extreme possession-count case supports 13+ points.
    • Both teams are pass-leaning, but season-to-date offensive EPA remains negative: Pittsburgh -0.09 and Cleveland -0.15 per play.
    • Pittsburgh leads 7-0 with 2:21 left in the first; a short field or Cleveland tempo can inflate the second-quarter script.
  8. Under 37.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both offenses are negative EPA/play: Pittsburgh -0.09 and Cleveland -0.15 through three games.
    • Combined points per drive is 2.94, with current pace inputs of 29.68 seconds/play Pittsburgh and 31.01 Cleveland.
    • Total moved from 38.5 open to 37.5 current; ProphetX under 37.5 shortened from +114 to +101, travelling toward this side.Starters Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson were confirmed in the current pregame report.
    • Only three current-season games per team; the partial-tier shrink is doing meaningful work in the 53.5% model estimate.
  9. Jaylen Warren over 65.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-week rushing line: 46, 43, 127 yards on 10, 11, 17 carries; 72.0-yard average.
    • Cleveland allowed 126, 137, and 98 opponent rushing yards; its first-three-game defensive EPA allowed was +0.04 per play.
    • DraftKings -113 and FanDuel -114 at 65.5: a modest price, so this is a lean rather than a recommendation.
    • The 127-yard Week 3 spike drives the average; Warren was below 65.5 in both prior games.
  10. PIT-CLE game first-half total under 19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean 16.2 first-half points: roughly 5.5 drives per team-half × current PPD sum 2.94.
    • Current pace is 29.68 seconds/play (PIT) and 31.01 (CLE); current drive lengths imply a slower, lower-possession first half.
    • PIT and CLE average -0.09 and -0.15 offensive EPA/play; opponent defensive EPA inputs also keep the matchup below league scoring efficiency.
    • The matchup PPD inputs are only three 2026 games per team; the 2,812-game halftime sample averages 23.03 points, above this fit.
  11. Under 35.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  12. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle wake number is Cleveland +3 / Pittsburgh -3 for CLV; Tier 2, flat 1u.
    • Most likely loss is Pittsburgh winning by 1-3 points; -3.5 has no push protection.
  13. Deshaun Watson under 186.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland's current C Elgton Jenkins and G Teven Jenkins are both officially out, changing the protection unit behind a 73.6 OL pass-block grade.
    • Pittsburgh's pass rush grades 75.3 with a 12.2% win rate; Watson carries a 26.9% pressure-to-sack rate and 10.6% sack rate.
    • Watson's first three passing-yard totals are 205, 238, and 144, while his time-to-throw has not produced stable efficiency.
    • Watson exceeded 186.5 in two of three starts; the sample is only three games.
  14. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weighted 2025/2026 efficiency blend makes Pittsburgh fair around -4.5, a roughly 2-point edge at -2.5.
    • 2026 Pittsburgh defense: -0.05 EPA allowed/play; Cleveland: +0.04, with a 75.3 vs 55.1 current pass-rush grade.
    • Steelers DL pass-rush win rate is 12.2% versus Cleveland's 7.3%; Cleveland has two interior OL starters officially out.
    • Only three 2026 games are charted, so early-season efficiency remains noisy despite heavy 2025 regression.
  15. Quinshon Judkins under 55.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Role is real but efficiency has collapsed: 2026 YCO per attempt is 1.83 versus 3.20 in 2025, with 0.0% breakaway rate.
    • Recent carries were 12, 12, and 18; rushing yards were 33, 21, and 70, projecting 38-65 with a 52-yard median.
    • Steelers show -0.05 defensive EPA allowed per play and a 78.4 run-defense grade; DraftKings posts 55.5 at -113.
    • Cleveland's season rush rate is 45.5%; a positive home script could create 20-plus attempts.
  16. Roman Wilson over 22.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 role jump: WR2 with 63.2% snaps and 94.5% route rate versus 33.1% snaps as 2025 WR3.
    • Recent window: 6 targets in each of Weeks 1-3; 26, 28, and 60 receiving yards.
    • Season opportunity: 69 routes, 18 targets, 11 receptions, 114 yards; projection range 24-48, median 31.
    • Three-game sample; the 60-yard Week 3 result adds volatility to the median.
  17. Under 38 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game to-date: Pittsburgh offense -0.09 EPA/play and Cleveland offense -0.15; Pittsburgh defense allows -0.05 vs Cleveland +0.04.
    • Pace/PROE: Pittsburgh 29.68 seconds/play and +15.9% PROE; Cleveland 31.01 and +8.7%, modest possession pace with both offenses below zero.
    • PFF reference: Pittsburgh defense 75.2 overall and 85.3 pass-rush grade versus Cleveland defense 53.9; OL-DL read also favors Pittsburgh's rush edge.
    • Most likely loss: Cleveland's weak defense creates short fields or explosive Pittsburgh scores, pushing the game to 39+.
  18. Cleveland Browns under 19.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CLE posted -0.15 offensive EPA/play; PIT defense is -0.05 EPA/play allowed through three games.
    • CLE averaged 1.52 points per drive versus a 2.13 league average; Pittsburgh's matchup suppresses the scoring baseline.
    • Fresh official report lists Cleveland C Elgton Jenkins, G Teven Jenkins, and WR Tylan Wallace out.
    • The fitted scoring band is roughly 15, 18 points, so the margin at 19.5 is useful but not enormous.
  19. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns under 37.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 35.7 combined points per game across both teams' first three 2026 games.
    • Combined recent points-per-drive is 2.95; both offenses carry negative season EPA/play.
    • Pittsburgh's recent defense EPA allowed is -0.04 versus Cleveland's +0.02.
    • Cleveland scored 21 and 23 in its last two games; Watson has 5 TDs against 1 interception.
  20. Jaylen Warren over 0.5 touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 48c YES with both sides quoted and tradable; venue self-reference, not a sharp reference.
    • Warren is Pittsburgh's declared RB1 and committee lead with a 48.1% snap share.
    • Rico Dowdle, the declared RB2, is officially out; Warren's goal-line role is derived from depth order plus usage proxies.
    • Warren's 48.1% share still signals a committee, and post-Dowdle replacement usage is not directly confirmed.
  21. Cleveland Browns spread +3
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  22. Cleveland Browns spread −4.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied at 3 versus 3, so two of three measures agree: thin-at-quote plus deep-behind-it.
    • Directional check: backing Cleveland -4.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count does not corroborate it.
  23. Game total under 36
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: Under 36 is thin at the quote and materially deeper across the ladder; raw stakes are well beyond a handful of dollars.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Under 3 versus Over 3.
  24. Cleveland Browns to win
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: Cleveland is thin at the quote and deeper across the ladder; both raw stakes are large enough to clear the small-quote concern.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Cleveland 3 versus Pittsburgh 3.
  25. Quinshon Judkins under 54.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Judkins averages 41.3 rushing yards over his last 3 games, 24.2% below the 54.5 line.
    • His recent rushing outputs are 33, 21, and 70 yards; the under hit in 2 of 3.
    • Pittsburgh has allowed -0.05 defensive EPA per play, materially stronger than Cleveland's +0.04.
    • A Browns lead would create a favorable rushing script and more fourth-quarter attempts.
  26. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half spread over 2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 75¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest is 4 days for Pittsburgh and 4 for Cleveland; no rest mismatch, but no fatigue penalty against Pittsburgh.
    • EPA matchup favors Pittsburgh: PIT offense -0.09 vs CLE defense +0.04; PIT defense -0.05 vs CLE offense -0.15.
    • Live state: Pittsburgh leads 7-0 with 2:59 in Q1; the contract needs only a 4.5-point adverse swing to lose.
    • No rest edge exists, and Cleveland's 1.52 points per drive exceeds Pittsburgh's 1.42 baseline.
  27. First-half total under 18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 4 days vs. 4 days: no rest gap, so this is not a rest-driven recommendation.
    • EPA gap is defensive: Pittsburgh -0.05 allowed/play versus Cleveland +0.04; both offenses are negative.
    • Combined points per drive is 2.94; the projection trims the 18.5-point rung to roughly 17.8.
    • Equal four-day rest removes the brief's strongest first-half lever; no structural rest advantage exists.
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers 1H winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: Pittsburgh 4 days, Cleveland 4 days; no fatigue edge is being invented.
    • PIT offensive EPA is 0.06/play better and defensive EPA allowed is 0.09/play better; combined gap +0.15.
    • Pittsburgh's PROE is 0.16 versus Cleveland's 0.09, supporting a more aggressive scripted opening plan.
    • No rest mismatch removes the brief's strongest first-half lever.
  29. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT current-season offense EPA/play -0.09 vs CLE -0.15; defense EPA/play -0.05 vs +0.04.
    • PIT explosive rate 10.8% vs 7.7%; PROE +15.9% vs +8.7% supports the backed side.
    • Personnel gate: depth chart lists Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson first; both current roster status Active, no QB Out/Doubtful.
    • Cleveland is home; its current-season points/drive 1.52 vs Pittsburgh 1.42 cuts against the side.
  30. Cleveland Browns +2.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV ModelUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DK offers Browns +2.5 at +100; Pinnacle and BetOnline hold Browns +3 at -119/-120.
    • FPI baseline projects Pittsburgh by 1.42, leaving a 1.08-point cushion against the DK -2.5 spread.
    • Pinnacle stayed at Browns +3 from 9/30 5:55pm through 10/1 12:55pm, implying positive expected CLV on the stale +2.5.
    • Pittsburgh's 2026 defense is better by EPA allowed: -0.05 versus Cleveland's +0.04.
  31. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup fit centers Pittsburgh about +0.8 first-half points: PIT offense EPA -0.09 vs CLE -0.15, and PIT defense EPA allowed -0.05 vs CLE +0.04.
    • Historical first-half pace is 5.5 drives per team; square-root scaling with drives, not linear half-game scaling, supports the +1.5 cushion against wider half-margin variance.
    • Only three 2026 games inform the current EPA and points-per-drive inputs; early-season estimates are noisy.
  32. Cleveland Browns 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland is an AFC North divisional underdog: full-game +2.5 and 1Q Cleveland YES at 34¢.
    • Pittsburgh's 1Q defensive EPA allowed over its three 2026 games averaged +0.19/play (0.48, 0.17, -0.09), above the -0.05 gate.
    • Pittsburgh allowed 7 first-quarter points in each of its three 2026 games, supporting the slow-starting-defense fallback.
    • Cleveland's own 1Q scoring is only 1.0 PPG (0, 3, 0), so scripted-offense execution does not confirm.
  33. Harold Fannin Jr. over 3.5 receptionsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Targets rose 3→6→9 over Weeks 1-3; receptions rose 2→5→7.
    • PFF route rate rose 88.9%→91.7% in the two charted games; he ranks TE1 in Browns usage.
    • Pittsburgh allowed tight ends 25 targets, 19 catches and 198 yards over its last three games.
    • Week-3 route-rate data is not yet charted; the role read relies on rising targets and the first two route reports.
  34. Jaylen Warren fantasy points over 14.8
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-PPR rules: 1 point per reception, 0.1 per rushing/receiving yard, 6 per touchdown.
    • Consensus projections are 16.55 (ESPN) and 18.57 (Sleeper PPR), both above 14.8.
    • Rico Dowdle is officially out; Warren led Pittsburgh backs with 51 snaps and 0.48 share in the latest chart.
    • Only three games inform the current-season role; the sample is thin despite a 2025 baseline.
  35. Game first-half total under 19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.5 is the live FanDuel first-half total; 37.5 full-game total implies a naive 18.75 half.
    • Projected first-half total is 18.0: 1.5 points below the posted line and 0.75 below naive derivation.
    • Six recent first-half game totals averaged 19.8, but three landed 13, 15; the matchup profile supports a lower central estimate.
    • Recent first-half totals were volatile: 13, 13, 15, 20, 24, and 34; the historical sample is only six games.

Questions

Who won Steelers vs. Browns?

The Browns won 27-24 on Thursday, Oct 1, 2026.

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