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Patriots vs. BillsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHighmark Stadium
Patriots1–2
29–26Final
Bills3–0
Score by period
Team1234T
NE777829
BUF0170926

Top model pick, graded

Won

New England Patriots first-half spread +3.5 46¢

Why Locker Room likes it: Square-root drive scaling keeps first-half margin variance wider than a linear half of the full-game distribution, supporting the underdog tail.

Locker RoomUp 1% return this season · 218 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-35 on this game · +705% return

  1. Buffalo Bills spread −6.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsProphetX NFL Ladder, CLV Sharp ATS +2
    Why 4 models like it
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
    • Latest depth charts confirm Josh Allen and Drake Maye as QB1; both teams have seven days rest, and Buffalo's 2026 form supports the directional adjustment.
    • Most likely loss is Buffalo winning by 1, 6 points; New England outright also loses the ticket.
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • FanDuel -6.5 is 0.5 points better than the sharp -7 consensus, crossing key number 7.
    • Five-game EPA/success blend projects Buffalo -9.5, a 2.5-point edge versus the -7 consensus.
    • Josh Allen's formal game-day active designation is not posted at 6:00 a.m. PT.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game to-date: Buffalo offense +0.1756 EPA/play versus New England defense -0.0388; matchup edge +0.2144.
    • New England offense -0.1619 versus Buffalo defense +0.0480; the opposing matchup is -0.2099 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo wins by 1-6, failing to clear -6.5.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Buffalo’s offense is +0.1756 EPA/play versus New England’s -0.1619, a +0.3375 gap.
    • Buffalo is 3-0 with a +7.7 recent average margin; New England is 1-2 at -5.0.
    • New England’s defense is better by the current EPA input: -0.0388 allowed/play versus Buffalo’s +0.0480.
  2. Game total under 49.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Brewing NFL Totals 2.0 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model estimate: under 60.5% versus 52.4% break-even at FanDuel -110; +8.1 percentage points.
    • New England averages 12.0 points through three regular-season games; Buffalo averages 33.7, combining to 45.7.
    • Three-game current-season sample is thin and may regress toward prior-season scoring.
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • New England is at -0.1619 offensive EPA/play, .4591 success rate and .9643 points/drive through three games.
    • Both teams average roughly 30.2 seconds/play; 2026 league average total is 45.76, below this 49.5 line.
    • Both teams have key secondary absences, including Christian Gonzalez and Christian Benford, raising explosive-play risk.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Model scoring blend projects 47.0 total points and 55.5% under probability.
    • Current-season scoring averages are Buffalo 33.7 and New England 12.0 points per game.
    • Buffalo's 0.161 explosive-play rate can produce quick scores that break the under.
  3. Total Points under 49.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three current-season games: Buffalo offense is +0.1756 EPA/play; New England offense is -0.1619 EPA/play.
    • Latest PFF card: Buffalo offense 77.5 versus New England 58.9; the mismatch supports a Bills lead without requiring a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo's +0.1756 offensive EPA/play converts efficiently against a New England defense that can allow enough short fields and touchdowns.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • New England ranks -0.1619 EPA/play, .4591 success and .1085 explosive rate through three games; its points/drive is only 0.9643.
    • Buffalo's +0.1756 offensive EPA/play and 3.3106 points/drive create a Bills-led script, but the Patriots' low-efficiency offense must contribute materially to clear 49.5.
    • Likeliest loss path: Buffalo's .1612 explosive-play rate and strong offense reach 35-plus points before New England needs much scoring.
  4. New England Patriots under 20.5 team points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsOne Column, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    One Column
    • NE offense EPA-to-date is -0.1619 against Buffalo defensive EPA-to-date of +0.048.
    • NE points per drive is 0.9643 with 30.16 pace; the matchup fit centers the offense around roughly 15 points.
    • Drake Maye is confirmed despite a right-shoulder issue; a clean game or short field can clear 20.5.
    NFL HunterV2
    • 58% model probability versus 52.6% implied at FanDuel: +5.4 percentage points.
    • New England is averaging 12.0 points per game with only 0.964 points per drive and -0.1619 offensive EPA per play this season.
    • Buffalo's game-specific defensive EPA allowed is +0.048 per play, so the Bills' season-to-date defense is not uniformly strong.
  5. Buffalo Bills spread −72 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, NFL Spread Detective
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Buffalo -6.5 is -110 (52.38¢), but -7 is now +109 (47.85¢), a 4.53-point drop across exact 7.
    • Buffalo leads current offense EPA/play 0.1756 to New England’s -0.1619; team grades are 74.3 vs 61.3.
    • Most likely loss: New England wins or Buffalo wins by 6 or fewer; exactly 7 is a push.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score BUF +0.545 vs NE -0.017; EPA edge +0.561.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.395: BUF +0.273 vs NE -0.122.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
  6. Buffalo Bills spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 33 picks
  1. Buffalo Bills spread 13.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  2. Under total 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE has -0.1619 offensive EPA/play, 0.4591 success rate and 0.9643 points/drive; both teams are fast at 30.16/30.30 seconds per play, so the adjustment stays modest.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo's 3.3106 points/drive and +0.1756 offensive EPA, plus NE defensive absences, produce an efficient over.
  3. New England Patriots first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate is 63% for New England to win the half, a 18-point gap to the board price.
    • Pace is nearly even at 30.16 seconds/play NE and 30.30 BUF; EPA favors Buffalo, but the live seven-point lead dominates the remaining-half state.
    • Square-root scaling matters: half-margin standard deviation follows sqrt(drives), not a linear halving, so the existing lead has more protection than naive variance halving implies.
    • Buffalo’s recent form is stronger: 3-0 with a +7.7 margin versus New England 1-2 at -5.0.
  4. New England Patriots first-half spread +3.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Square-root drive scaling keeps first-half margin variance wider than a linear half of the full-game distribution, supporting the underdog tail.
    • Fresh pace is nearly symmetric at 30.16/30.30 seconds per play; Buffalo's EPA edge is real but less decisive over one half.
    • Buffalo's current offensive EPA is +0.176/play versus New England's -0.162/play through only three games.
  5. Game first-half total under 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BUF 2026 points per drive 3.311; NE 0.964 across three games centers the first half near 20, 21 points.
    • Pace inputs are 30.30/30.16 seconds per play; that does not erase New England's -0.162 offensive EPA/play.
    • Square-root drive scaling makes half-game variance wider than a linear half of full-game variance; 24.5 is not automatically a 50% split.
    • Only three 2026 games per team make the PPD and EPA estimates thin early-season inputs.
  6. Dalton Kincaid over 47.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 263 receiving yards on 17 targets through three games: 87.7 yards per game versus a 47.5-yard line.
    • Snap share held between 66.2% and 73.7%, with 23-28 route snaps in each game.
    • PFF credits Kincaid with an 86.4 receiving grade and 3.81 yards per route through three games.
    • New England's defense has allowed -0.0388 EPA per play over its last three, a potentially difficult matchup.
  7. Under 46.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  8. DeMario Douglas over 28.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opportunity clears the gate: 56.6% offensive snap share across the first three games.
    • Projection 45.4 yards/game is 59% above the 28.5-yard market line.
    • Current target sequence is 7, 2, 5; the role is active despite uneven weekly distribution.
    • Projection leans on a prior-season yards-per-target baseline and a small three-game sample.
  9. Total Points under 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s main total is 49.5 with under -107, independently supporting the lower-scoring direction.
    • New England’s recent offense is -0.1312 EPA/play with 1.275 points per drive; Buffalo’s defense is -0.0431 EPA/play allowed in the recent window.
    • under 51 is -126 (55.75¢), while under 52 is -142 (58.68¢); the 2.93-point step is light against 114 exact-51 totals.
    • Most likely loss: the game reaches 53 or more points; exactly 52 is a push.
  10. Buffalo Bills winning margin 7 to 14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup differential is approximately +0.424 per play for Buffalo: home offense 0.1756 versus New England defense -0.0388, against Patriots offense -0.1619 versus Bills defense 0.0480.
    • Points per drive is 3.31 for Buffalo versus 0.96 for New England; the recent 3-0 versus 1-2 records reinforce the efficiency gap.
    • New England's defense grades better by allowed EPA-to-date (-0.0388 versus Buffalo's 0.0480), which can compress the projected margin.
  11. New England Patriots under 49.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45.7 combined points per game through three 2026 games sits 3.8 below 49.5.
    • New England is at -0.1619 offensive EPA/play; Buffalo's last-six defense allowed -0.0582 EPA/play.
    • The total moved from 50.5 to 49.5 at DraftKings/BetOnline; Pinnacle under strengthened from -103 to -107.
    • Buffalo's 77.5 offense and 73.5 passing grades can produce a one-sided scoring surge.
  12. Romeo Doubs over 59.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Doubs has 2 receptions for 29 yards and a touchdown on New England’s opening scoring drive.
    • New England has +0.572 EPA/play, 58.3% success, and 16.7% explosive rate through 12 plays.
    • BetMGM’s 59.5 is one yard below DraftKings’ 60.5 at the same price and below FanDuel’s 58.5 -118.
    • Only two live targets and 29 yards make the role sample thin despite early scoring involvement.
  13. Josh Allen first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +550 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated first-touchdown probability 18%; fair price approximately +456 versus FanDuel +550.
    • Buffalo's 2026 offense: +0.176 EPA/play, 54.7% success, 16.1% explosive rate and 3.31 points/drive.
    • Buffalo converted 9 of 12 red-zone trips into touchdowns; Allen has 6 rushing TDs in 3 games.
    • New England's current defense has allowed only 5 touchdowns on 15 red-zone possessions across its first three games.
  14. Buffalo Bills first score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BUF has 12 red-zone trips and 9 touchdowns (75%) through three games; NE has 6 trips and 1 touchdown (17%).
    • BUF's pregame offense is +0.1756 EPA/play and 3.31 points/drive versus NE at -0.1619 and 0.96.
    • Opening possession and scripted opening-drive tendencies are unconfirmed; first-score is a one-drive-sensitive market.
  15. James Cook III 1+ touchdown
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cook is the charted Buffalo RB1 with a 71.1% snap share and workhorse role.
    • Buffalo has converted 9 of 12 red-zone trips (75%) through three games.
    • New England has allowed 5 of 8 opponent red-zone trips to score (62.5%).
    • The 75% Buffalo red-zone conversion rate is a three-game sample and can regress sharply.
  16. New England Patriots to winLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both sides show 3 book levels; the qualifying two-measure pattern is New England thin at the quote but substantially deeper behind it with large raw stakes.
    • Directional check: backing New England Patriots, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent confirmation; this desk has no statistical projection or paid ticket/handle read.
  17. New England Patriots spread +7
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England +7 pushes when Buffalo wins by exactly 7; it loses at 8+.
    • ProphetX self-reference: New England +7 is -112 (52.83¢) versus +7.5 at -128 (56.14¢), only a 3.31-point price gap.
    • The adjacent-rung comparison is ProphetX self-reference, not an independent sharp reference.
  18. Game total under 29.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 3¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle total is 50.0; DraftKings and FanDuel are 52.5.
    • mean 50.0 with rough SD 14 gives 7.2% probability of total under 29.5.
    • This is a far-tail rung 20.5 points below the sharp reference; tail calibration is materially less certain than the center.
  19. Buffalo Bills to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −345 on DraftKings

    Brewing NFL MlDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bills lead pre-kickoff opponent-adjusted offense EPA/play 0.1756 to -0.1619 and success rate 54.7% to 45.9%.
    • Buffalo leads points per drive 3.31 to 0.96 through three regular-season games.
    • Josh Allen: 73.5 PFF passing grade, 5 TD/2 INT; Drake Maye: 36.6 grade, 1 TD/6 INT through three games.
    • The estimated edge is modest at 5.6 points, so model error and normal NFL variance dominate.
  20. New England Patriots 1Q to win
    +160%Won

    Taken at +160 on DraftKings

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo allowed 15 first-quarter points in 3 games, 5.0 per game versus the 3.81 league average.
    • That full-season fallback ranks Buffalo ninth-most first-quarter points allowed among 32 teams.
    • New England and Buffalo are AFC East rivals, satisfying the divisional matchup gate.
    • New England averages only 2.0 first-quarter points in its 3 current-season games and 1.2 across the last five.
  21. James Cook over 87.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role trend: Cook is the season-to-date RB1/workhorse at a 73.3% snap share; Ray Davis has only an 11.5% share.
    • Matchup: New England has allowed 108.3 rushing yards per game on 75 opponent carries over the last three games.
    • Price context: FanDuel posts 87.5 at -114, below Cook's 115.3-yard three-game average.
    • Cook gained only 57 yards in the opener; the average is heavily influenced by 135 and 154-yard games.
  22. James Cook over 85.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60% model probability versus 53.1% implied at FanDuel: +6.9 percentage points.
    • Cook has 346 rushing yards on 58 carries through three games: 5.97 yards per carry and 19.3 attempts per game.
    • His 71.1% offensive snap share and workhorse role provide the steadiest current-season opportunity in this matchup.
    • Cook's sample is only three regular-season games, and Buffalo still has a secondary-back rotation.
  23. Buffalo Bills spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo averages +0.176 offensive EPA/play through three games versus New England's -0.162, a +0.338/play gap.
    • Buffalo is 3-0 with margins of +5, +10, and +8; New England is 1-2 and lost its latest game by 29.
    • Bills -6 keeps directional coherence with the existing under position: New England's struggling offense supports a Buffalo margin without requiring a shootout.
    • Buffalo's first-three-game defensive EPA/play averages +0.048 versus New England's -0.039, so the offense gap may overstate the matchup edge.
  24. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three regular-season games: Buffalo averages 33.7 points for and 26.0 against; New England averages 12.0 for and 17.0 against.
    • A simple offense-defense blend projects 44.3 total points, 6.2 below ProphetX's 50.5 threshold.
    • Pinnacle's nearby 49.5 total has the under at -107; this is contextual support, not a same-line reference.
    • New England's offense has scored 10, 20, and 6; a short-field turnover or defensive score can break the low-scoring script.
  25. Under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total: 47.5; estimated under probability 57% versus 52.8% break-even.
    • New England's pre-kickoff offense is -0.1619 EPA/play with a 45.9% success rate.
    • DraftKings moved the total from 50.5 to 49.5; the under still grades about +4.2 probability points over its break-even price.
    • Buffalo has scored 101 points in three games and owns a 16.1% explosive-play rate.
  26. Buffalo Bills −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair line: Buffalo -8.5; estimated cover probability 55% versus 52.4% break-even.
    • Buffalo leads on pre-kickoff offensive EPA/play, 0.1756 to New England's -0.1619.
    • Bills lead success rate 54.7% to 45.9% and explosive-play rate 16.1% to 10.9%.
    • Buffalo's current to-date defensive EPA allowed is +0.048, a vulnerability if Drake Maye creates explosive passes.
  27. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +31700%Won

    Taken at +31700

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE live EPA/play .3042 vs BUF .2027; success 53.3% vs 43.8% at 7-7.
    • SF PPD to date 3.725 vs Denver 1.7185; recent scoring margins +16.0 vs -3.3.
    • Most likely failure: Buffalo's stronger pregame prior converts the tied game into second-half control.

Questions

Who won Patriots vs. Bills?

The Patriots won 29–26 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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