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Chiefs vs. RaidersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegiant Stadium
Chiefs3–0
30–27Final
Raiders3–0
Score by period
Team1234T
KC7302030
LV7601427

Top model pick, graded

Won

Las Vegas Raiders spread +7.5 62¢

Why House Rules likes it: A Raiders +7 spread pushes on an exact 7-point loss; Raiders +7.5 wins on that same margin.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 20-19 on this game · −4% return

  1. Las Vegas Raiders to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsFade Stephen A. Smith, Resting Money +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • Stephen A. Smith / First Take, Oct. 1: “Patrick Mahomes will show Kirk Cousins who OWNS the league!”
    • The opposite is a Raiders outright win; Polymarket US offers the Raiders NO side at 35.25¢.
    • The quoted take is framed as skepticism and a quarterback hierarchy claim, not a fully explicit score prediction.
    Resting Money
    • book_levels: Raiders 3, Chiefs 3; levels do not corroborate, but the two primary measures qualify and thin-side size is substantial.
    • Book-level count is tied, so the third measure adds no confirmation.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Las Vegas net EPA/play is +0.2583 versus Kansas City +0.2429; the home defense and home field support a higher upset probability than the price implies.
    • live NFL injury data has Patrick Mahomes active with full practice and Aidan O'Connell out; Raiders' official preview identifies Kirk Cousins as the quarterback.
    • Likeliest loss path: Kansas City's .1542 explosive-play rate and Mahomes-led offense turn its efficiency edge into multiple scoring drives.
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • HITC/Yahoo Sports (Oct. 3) reports Skip Bayless picked the Raiders to beat the Chiefs.
    • This is a specific Week 4 game starting today; no conflicting Skip reversal surfaced in the scan.
    • The article is a paraphrase, not a directly verified Skip transcript; the take could be overstated.
  2. Travis Kelce over 47.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • Kelce averaged 77.0 receiving yards over the last three games: 71, 101, and 59.
    • The 47.5-yard line is 62% of the three-game trailing projection.
    • Yardage is volatile on only three games; one low-target game would erase the apparent pricing gap.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 77.0 receiving yards per game through three weeks, 62.1% above the 47.5-yard line.
    • Kelce cleared 47.5 in all three games: 71, 101, and 59 yards.
    • Las Vegas has a strong -0.2112 defensive EPA/play to date, which can suppress efficiency.
  3. Kenneth Walker III over 86.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 73.1% average snap share across the last three games, with 23, 24, and 18 carries.
    • 120.0 rushing-yard three-game average; 86.5 is only 72% of that trailing projection.
    • Las Vegas has allowed negative defensive EPA per play in all three games; the matchup is not a bottom-tier defense.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability 59%; -110 implies 52.4%, a +6.6-point edge.
    • Walker averages 120.0 rushing yards through three games and cleared 86.5 in 2 of 3.
    • The 70-yard miss came last week, so the recent distribution remains volatile.
  4. Kansas City Chiefs spread −4.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, NFL Spread Detective
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game current-season sample: KC offense +0.1048 EPA/play versus LV defense -0.2112; LV offense +0.0471 versus KC defense -0.1381.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Kansas City 83.3 overall and 82.5 offense versus Las Vegas at 73.1 and 69.1.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas City wins by 1-4 points or Las Vegas wins outright, missing -4.5.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA strategy scores: Kansas City +0.936 vs Las Vegas +0.139; EPA edge +0.798.
    • Primary EPA scores: Kansas City +0.496 vs Las Vegas +0.079; primary edge +0.418. QUALIFIES: YES.
    • Only three current-season games feed the z-scores; early-season rankings are materially volatile.
  5. Total Points under 48.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Key Number Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game sample: KC offense +0.1048 EPA/play versus LV defense -0.2112; LV offense +0.0471 versus KC defense -0.1381.
    • Seven rest days each and an indoor, non-neutral venue provide no rest or weather boost to the scoring outlook.
    • Most likely loss: explosive passes, short fields, or defensive scores push the game to 49 or more.
    Key Number Pairs
    • The rung pair implies roughly 1.92 percentage points too little probability for exactly 48, creating value on under 48.5 relative to ProphetX’s own adjacent ladder.
    • Kansas City and Las Vegas defenses allow -0.1381 and -0.2112 EPA/play to date; PFF defense grades are 71.7 and 66.9.
    • Most likely loss: the game reaches 49 or more points through explosive plays, turnovers, or red-zone variance.
  6. Las Vegas Raiders spread +4.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBills Belichicks, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Bills Belichicks
    • +4.5 underdog price clears the brief's +1.5 gate; DraftKings posts +100.
    • Kubiak is 3-0 (.1000) as an NFL head coach versus Reid's 278-152-1 (.646), a +35.4-point career-rate gap.
    • Kubiak's 3-0 career sample is only three games; it does not establish durable coaching superiority.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Las Vegas combines the stronger defense (-0.2112 EPA/play) with home field and 4.5 points; the exchange still prices Kansas City -4.5.
    • Pinnacle shows Raiders +4.5 at +100; reference only, while ProphetX improves the price to +105.
    • Kansas City's offense has the better current EPA/play (+0.1048 versus Las Vegas +0.0471), and Patrick Mahomes is confirmed to start.
Show all 30 picks
  1. Game total over 47.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsPace Ledger, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Ledger
    • 62.76 combined pace_to_date (KC 32.04, LV 30.72) across three 2026 games per team; both have seven rest days.
    • Both teams have scored 88 points through three games (58.7 combined per game); Allegiant Stadium is indoors.
    • Most likely loss: pressure or red-zone regression turns 62.76 plays into 47 or fewer; Las Vegas has an 80.8 pass-rush grade versus Kansas City’s 64.4 pass-block grade.
    Number Earned
    • 58.7 combined points per game across both teams' first three 2026 games.
    • Current-season points per drive: Kansas City 2.750, Las Vegas 2.461.
    • Three-game current-season sample can overstate early scoring efficiency and pace.
  2. Ashton Jeanty over 16.5 rushing attemptsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeanty has logged 23, 21, and 19 carries in his first three games.
    • He owns a 79.6% snap share, 64 run snaps, and a workhorse role.
    • Kansas City’s current run-defense grade is only 61.3; the +4.5 spread supports a competitive script.
    • Raiders may trail and shift Jeanty’s workload toward routes and short receptions.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders spread +7.5High conviction
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A Raiders +7 spread pushes on an exact 7-point loss; Raiders +7.5 wins on that same margin.
    • Historical NFL exact-7 final-margin frequency: 234 of 2,759 games, 8.481% (2016-25 regular season and playoffs).
    • ProphetX prices +7.5 at 61.83c (-162) versus +7 at 62.41c (-166): the better contract is 0.58c cheaper.
    • The 8.481% pooled exact-7 rate is not a game-specific projection or a directional Raiders estimate.
  4. Michael Mayer anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +370 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14 targets, 12 catches and one touchdown through three games; 84.1% snap share.
    • Model anytime-touchdown probability: 29%; fair odds approximately +245 versus DraftKings +370.
    • The Raiders’ 47.5-point total and Mayer’s sustained target role support repeat scoring access.
    • Bowers’ 13-target return can siphon red-zone opportunities.
  5. Las Vegas Raiders first-half winner
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live warehouse score is Raiders 7, Chiefs 6; a one-point lead materially improves Las Vegas's first-half win path with 18:10 left in Q1.
    • Pace is near 31, 32 seconds per play and the half has fewer drives; margin SD scales with the square root of drives, not linearly, preserving value in a one-point lead.
    • Board triage: first-half winner is RECOMMENDED; first-half spreads are LEAN/illiquid, and second-half markets are exploratory rather than publishable.
    • Las Vegas's pregame offensive/defensive EPA profile was slightly weaker than Kansas City's, so the live lead may not persist.
  6. Game first-half total under 23.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • Fitted first-half center is approximately 22, 23 points from 31.38-second blended pace, EPA matchup, and 2.46/2.75 points-per-drive inputs; under estimated near 56% versus 47c.
    • The 2H 23.5 line plus 1H 23.5 sums to 47, against the full-game 47.5 anchor; the normal late-game scoring bump argues 1H should be below 23.5, not equal to 2H.
    • KC and LV pace/EPA/PPD estimates are early-season, three-game samples; current efficiencies can regress sharply.
  7. Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders second-quarter total under 15.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid full-game anchors agreed: margin mean 3.6, SD 10.0; total mean 51.2, SD 8.5.
    • Self-referential fit gives Q2 mean 12.8 and SD 4.25 under sqrt-drives scaling.
    • Fitted Q2 over-15.5 probability is 26.3% versus the board's 49% Over quote: 22.7-point disagreement.
    • Quarter variance scaling is an approximation, not an independently estimated NFL period model.
  8. Michael Mayer over 25.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mayer produced 87 yards in three games, 32.4% below that route-based expectation.
    • Snap share rose 80.9% → 84.1% → 87.1%; routes rose 25 → 28 → 34.
    • FanDuel line is 25.5; projection is 68% above the posted threshold.
    • Current-season efficiency is only 1.09 yards per route versus 1.48 last season.
  9. Kansas City Chiefs team total under 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no sharp team-total feed; conservative band applied.
    • Matchup fit: 24.5, 25.5 KC points; KC +0.1048 EPA/play meets LV defense at -0.2112 allowed.
    • KC averages 2.75 points/drive; red-zone conversion is 9-for-15 (60%) through three regular-season games.
    • Mahomes’ KC explosive rate is 0.1542; a few chunk plays or short fields can erase the cushion.
  10. Kansas City Chiefs to winFavorite
    +44%Won

    Taken at −225 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent win probability 70%; fair price about -233 versus FanDuel -225.
    • KC's recent defense allowed -0.0949 EPA/play over 10 games, better than Las Vegas at -0.0542.
    • KC leads the PFF profile 83.3 overall to 73.1, including a 90.2-to-67.8 passing-grade edge.
    • The estimated edge is small: -225 requires roughly 69.2%, leaving limited margin for model error.
  11. Xavier Worthy under 81.5 receiving yards
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 0:52 of Q1, the game is tied 7-7; Worthy is active and has 1 reception for 41 yards on 1 target.
    • Kansas City has produced -0.393 EPA/play and a 47.1% success rate across 17 live offensive plays.
    • Through three games, Worthy has 63 yards on 15 targets, 0.64 YPRR, and a 55.5 PFF pass-route grade.
    • One explosive catch already supplies 41 yards; another deep completion can break the under quickly.
  12. Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair cover probability: 56% versus DraftKings’ 50.0% at +4.5.
    • LV’s current net EPA/play edge is 0.0154 after three games.
    • Raiders pass-rush grade is 80.8 against Kansas City’s 64.4 pass-block grade.
    • Kansas City’s overall PFF grade is 83.3 versus Las Vegas at 73.1.
  13. Kirk Cousins under 3 passing touchdownsFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Las Vegas has 0 red-zone trips and Cousins has only 3 pass attempts at Q1 3:10.
    • Polymarket US quotes both sides, with NO at 68¢ and YES at 33¢.
    • Usage-based read: the 7-0 lead has not produced a Raiders offensive red-zone opportunity, so three passing scores is an aggressive tail outcome.
    • This is an early live sample; one efficient drive can materially change the touchdown path.
  14. Kenneth Walker over 0.5 touchdowns
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, 83 touches through 3 games (65 rushes, 18 targets), a 75.1% snap-share workhorse.
    • Chiefs have converted 9 of 15 red-zone trips; KC leads this matchup in pregame points per drive, 2.75 to 2.46.
    • Raiders have allowed opponents to convert 7 of 9 red-zone trips (77.8%), a favorable scoring-chance matchup.
    • Red-zone samples are only three games; 9/15 and 7/9 conversion rates are noisy.
  15. Patrick Mahomes over 238.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 60%; -111 implies 52.6%, a +7.4-point edge.
    • Mahomes averages 270.7 passing yards through three games; he cleared this line in 2 of 3.
    • Kansas City has a 90.2 passing grade; Las Vegas has a 50.7 coverage grade.
    • Three-game sample is thin; the two overs were 246 and 382 yards, with one 184-yard miss.
  16. Total points over 48.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  17. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +21400

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raiders +7 pushes on a Chiefs win by exactly 7; Raiders +7.5 would win that result.
    • ProphetX Raiders +7 is 63.50¢ (-174) versus Raiders +7.5 at 62.12¢ (-164): only a 1.38-point gap for that push option.
    • the live offers showed $182 at Raiders +7 and $497 at under 48; ProphetX re-quoted the exact parlay at +215.
    • The parlay requires both legs: an 8-point-or-more Chiefs win loses Raiders +7, and 49 total points loses under 48.
  18. Game total under 73.5Favorite
    +5%Won

    Taken at 95¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Band: RECOMMENDED; edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • Same-rung DERIVED REFERENCE: sharp Pinnacle total is 48.0; this rung is 25.5 points into the tail.
    • Under 73.5 is quoted at 94.5¢, while the less-inclusive Under 70.5 is 96.0¢, a 1.5-point monotonicity break.
    • This is an extreme tail; the normal approximation is much less reliable than at central rungs.
  19. Kansas City Chiefs first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • KC leads LV by 0.0577 offensive EPA/play, 0.0156 success rate, and 2.7500 to 2.4613 points/drive.
    • KC's 0.0923 PROE versus LV's 0.0324 supports the stronger scripted passing profile; pace is 32.04 versus 30.72 seconds/play.
    • Pinnacle's first-half KC -175/LV +153, adjusted for Kalshi's 7.5% tie price, implies roughly 57.1% KC.
    • No rest edge: both teams have exactly 7 days, removing the brief's strongest lever.
  20. Las Vegas Raiders 1Q moneyline +130
    0%Push

    Taken at +130 on FanDuel

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AFC West divisional matchup; Las Vegas is the pregame underdog.
    • KC allowed positive first-quarter EPA/play in all three 2026 games: +0.404, +0.054, +0.006.
    • That is roughly +0.155 EPA/play allowed across 52 first-quarter plays.
    • Las Vegas averaged only 2.0 first-quarter points across its last five games, below the 4.0 scoring gate.
  21. Game under 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season defensive EPA allowed is -0.1381 for Kansas City and -0.2112 for Las Vegas.
    • Six-game defensive EPA allowed remains negative for both teams: -0.1113 Kansas City and -0.1027 Las Vegas.
    • The market is aligned toward the under: 47.5 at DraftKings/FanDuel and 48 at Pinnacle, with Pinnacle under -114.
    • Both teams are 3-0 and each has scored 88 points; current points per drive are 2.75 Kansas City and 2.4613 Las Vegas.
  22. Ashton Jeanty over 3.5 receptions
    +122%Won

    Taken at +122 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeanty has caught 6, 4, and 3 passes on 6, 7, and 3 targets.
    • His 64.2% route participation and 70 routes show a stable receiving role.
    • A trailing or close-game script boosts his checkdown and designed-pass opportunities.
    • He missed this line in the most recent game with three receptions.
  23. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp pregame total was 48; the refreshed live threshold is only 2.5 points higher despite 14 first-quarter points.
    • 2026 regular-season finals: Kansas City totals 41, 63, 34; Las Vegas totals 40, 40, 62, both team samples average below 50.5.
    • Live process is mixed but small: Kansas City has 0.0147 EPA/play on 18 plays; Las Vegas has 0.2737 on only 8 plays.
    • Most likely loss: 37 or more points arrive across the final three quarters after the 14-point opening quarter.
  24. Las Vegas Raiders spread +7
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, My low-60s cover projection exceeds ProphetX's 59.35¢ price.
    • Both teams are 3-0; recent scoring margins are +11.3 for Las Vegas and +12.7 for Kansas City, only a 1.4-point gap.
    • The seven-point cushion is materially wider than the recent-form separation, while Las Vegas also has home field.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas City converts its stronger recent offensive EPA and wins by eight or more.

Questions

Who won Chiefs vs. Raiders?

The Chiefs won 30–27 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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