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Rams vs. EaglesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLincoln Financial Field
Rams1–2
24–20Final
Eagles2–1
Score by period
Team1234T
LAR3701424
PHI3170020

Top model pick, graded

Won

Philadelphia Eagles spread +6.5 60¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: The ladder misprices the key-number transition: Eagles +6.5 is the largest qualifying rung after price and coverage filters.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 32-19 on this game · +15% return

  1. Los Angeles Rams to win9 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    9 modelsDrift, high-confidence main markets +7
    Why 9 models like it
    Drift
    • Power model: Rams 65.5% win probability; Eagles feature -0.105 home offensive EPA/play versus Rams -0.007, while Rams defense is -0.097 versus Eagles +0.035.
    • Rams lead current-season success rate .513 to .441 and explosive rate .143 to .129; seven rest days versus Philadelphia's six.
    • Rams lose Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson, while Philadelphia has home field and Jalen Hurts can create explosive rushing plays.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent win estimate: 67%; fair price approximately -203 versus FanDuel -184.
    • Rams lead recent five-game EPA profile: +0.0427 offensive EPA/play and -0.0865 defensive EPA allowed versus Eagles -0.1226 and +0.0608.
    • Rams are only 1-2 this season and Philadelphia has home field plus Jalen Hurts.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Rams recent 10-game EPA/play: +0.0809 offense and -0.0305 defense allowed; Eagles: -0.1185 and +0.0171.
    • Point-in-time features show Rams ahead in success rate (.5127 vs .4409) and explosive rate (.1425 vs .1294).
    • The model edge is only about 3.4% at the offered price, so normal NFL variance dominates.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • To-date EPA profile favors Los Angeles by +0.229 combined: offense +0.098, defense +0.131.
    • Success rate favors Los Angeles .513 to .441; PFF team grade favors Rams 81.4 to 72.7.
    • Philadelphia home field and Hurts’ rushing ability can erase the efficiency gap.
  2. Los Angeles Rams spread −3.56 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    6 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating is 54.0% Rams cover: Rams away offensive EPA -0.0071 vs Philadelphia -0.1046, and defensive EPA -0.0965 vs +0.0347.
    • Rams lead success rate .5127-.4409 and explosive rate .1425-.1294; they have seven rest days versus Philadelphia's six.
    • Most likely loss: Philadelphia home field and Jalen Hurts' rushing/explosive playmaking keep Los Angeles from winning by four.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Through 3 2026 games, Rams offense is -0.0071 EPA/play against Eagles defense at +0.0347; Eagles offense is -0.1046 against Rams defense at -0.0965.
    • PFF 2026 card supports the mismatch: Rams offense/defense grades 75.6/77.3 versus Philadelphia's 72.3/62.7.
    • Only 3 current-season games per team: this clears the coverage gate but remains an early-season sample.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score LAR +0.461 vs PHI -0.163; EPA edge +0.624.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.366: LAR +0.205 vs PHI -0.161.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Rams lead current-season offense EPA/play by 0.0975 (-0.0071 vs Philadelphia -0.1046) and success rate .5127-.4409.
    • Rams defense EPA/play is -0.0965 versus Philadelphia's +0.0347, a 0.1312-play edge; Los Angeles also has 7 rest days versus 6.
    • Likeliest loss path: Hurts' run game and home field turn a close game into a Philadelphia four-point win.
  3. Total Points under 42.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game sample: Rams offense -0.0071 EPA/play; Eagles offense -0.1046 EPA/play.
    • Rams defense allows -0.0965 EPA/play; Eagles defense allows +0.0347, limiting the stronger scoring path.
    • Most likely loss: explosive passes, short fields, or defensive scores push the game to 43 points.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels were tied 3-3, so the core two-measure read qualifies but the third measure does not corroborate.
    • Venue self-reference is not independent confirmation; no sharp-reference edge is claimed.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Rams and Eagles offensive EPA/play are -0.0071 and -0.1046; points/drive are only 1.8041 and 1.9259.
    • Philadelphia's game-day inactives include DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goedert and Lane Johnson.
    • Likeliest loss path: the teams' explosive rates (.1425 Rams, .1294 Eagles) produce a few chunk plays and efficient touchdowns.
  4. Davante Adams over 61.5 receiving yards2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • Snap share climbed from 54.1% to 64.5% to 82.6%; he ran 60 routes in Week 3.
    • Targets rose 6 to 10 to 13, with 195 and 137 yards in the last two games.
    • Three-game sample is thin; 195- and 137-yard games invite regression toward his 26-yard opener.
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 20,000-path sim: 66% over 61.5 versus 52.8% market-implied.
    • 29 targets and 358 yards through three games with a 94.6% route rate.
    • The Eagles' low 42.5 total can cap total Rams pass attempts.
  5. Davante Adams over 59.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsTarget Quality Yards, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Target Quality Yards
    • NGS REG 2026, 3 rows: 15.10 intended air yards and 2.57 separation, up from 2025 averages of 13.76 and 2.24.
    • PFF REGPO 2026, 3 games: 72.4% deep-plus-medium targets, up from 65.2% in his 2025 same-team baseline.
    • Current Adams-versus-Eagles CB assignment is unresolved; no true shadow or current CB coverage grade surfaced, capping this at 0.75u.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 119.3-yard 2026 average versus the 59.5 line: 100.5% divergence; cleared in 2 of 3 games.
    • Philadelphia's defensive EPA is +0.0347 to date, while Los Angeles has a +13.2% pass-rate-over-expectation mark.
    • The sample is only three games, with one 26-yard result; the mean is highly skewed by 195 yards in Week 2.
  6. Los Angeles Rams −3.52 models agree
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on BetMGM

    2 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Rams recent offense EPA/play is +0.081 versus Eagles -0.119.
    • Rams recent defense allowed -0.031 EPA/play; Philadelphia allowed +0.017.
    • Aaron Donald is officially out, reducing the Rams' strongest defensive matchup edge.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; the thin-at-quote plus deep-behind-it pairing supplies two supporting measures.
    • Directional check: backing Los Angeles Rams -3.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is not independent confirmation; no projection model is being used.
Show all 33 picks
  1. Over total 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
  2. Philadelphia Eagles spread +6.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The ladder misprices the key-number transition: Eagles +6.5 is the largest qualifying rung after price and coverage filters.
    • Most likely loss: Rams win by 7 or more, clearing the key number.
  3. Kyren Williams anytime touchdown
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 58%; fair price about -138 versus DraftKings -105.
    • Rams workhorse logged 38 carries and 12 targets through three games, with two total touchdowns.
    • His 64.1% snap share and 52.8% route participation lead the Rams backfield.
    • Blake Corum still owns 32.1% of Rams snaps and 28 carries, creating goal-line competition.
  4. Philadelphia Eagles first-half spread +2.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchor is Rams -3.5 while both half ladders center near Rams -2.5; summing half expectations overstates the full-game margin.
    • Rams average 20.3 points versus Philadelphia's 18.3; the 2.0-point scoring gap does not justify laying 2.5 in one half without more.
    • Square-root scaling matters: halving possessions halves expected margin, but standard deviation contracts only with the square root of drives, favoring the underdog half spread.
    • The current warehouse lacks matchup-specific pace, EPA, and points-per-drive rows, so this is not a complete fitted half-distribution.
  5. Game first-half total under 23.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring averages are 20.3 Rams points and 18.3 Eagles points per game; combined output is 38.7 through three games.
    • Current points-per-drive are 1.804 (LAR) and 1.926 (PHI), with 30.45/31.01 seconds per play; the fitted first-half midpoint is about 20.5.
    • Square-root drive scaling, not linear halving, leaves a wide half distribution but puts Under 23.5 near 64% in the fitted model.
    • Only three 2026 games are in the form sample; LAR has produced totals of 34, 34, and 56, while PHI has produced 46, 44, and 34.
  6. Over 43.5 total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  7. Los Angeles Rams spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial model shifts the mean 1.0 point toward Los Angeles: Rams current success rate 51.3% vs Philadelphia 44.1%, and defensive EPA allowed -0.096 vs +0.035; p_model at -7.5 is 40.0%, EV_model +12.0%.
    • QB gate cleared: latest 6:04 AM depth charts list Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts as QB1, with no game-day QB injury designation; Tier 2, flat 1u, and the Pinnacle -3.5 wake number is the CLV reference.
    • The most likely loss is a Rams win by 1, 7 points; -7.5 has no push protection, and a Philadelphia outright win also loses.
  8. Dontayvion Wicks under 56.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 179 yards on 15 targets through three games implies 36.1 yards at his 2025 7.22 yards/target baseline.
    • Recent actual average is 59.7 yards, 65% above the opportunity-based projection: clear negative-regression anomaly.
    • FanDuel's 56.5-yard line is 57% above the 36.1-yard projection; the line stayed flat from the 5:55 a.m. opener.
    • Only three regular-season games inform the projection, and Wicks is new to Philadelphia after a 2025 Green Bay baseline.
  9. Philadelphia Eagles under 20.5 total points
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia's offense is -0.1046 EPA/play with a 44.1% success rate through three games.
    • The Rams defense is -0.0965 EPA/play allowed; that specific matchup is materially better for Los Angeles than Philadelphia's offense profile.
    • 42.5 game total plus Philadelphia's 3.5-point favorite status implies roughly 23-19.5, while the team-total ladder centers near 20.5-19.5; the game total/spread split appears to overrate Philadelphia scoring.
    • Only three 2026 games inform the EPA, success-rate, pace, and points-per-drive inputs.
  10. Philadelphia Eagles spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NFL regular/postseason history has 413 of 2,808 games ending on exactly 3 points (14.7%).
    • The +3/+3.5 Eagles ladder gap is only 5.38 probability points; ProphetX prices key-3 mass too flat.
    • Rams -3.5 implies 49.26¢ versus 54.13¢ at -3; Rams ML -172 and -0.5 -174 remain directionally coherent.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins by 4 or more, clearing the key-number protection.
  11. Game under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent six-game pace is slow: Rams 30.2 and Eagles 29.7 seconds per offensive play.
    • Eagles recent offense is -0.1682 EPA/play and 1.614 points per drive.
    • Philadelphia is without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Hollywood Brown; both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.
    • Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford are healthy starters, and one early explosive touchdown can break a low total.
  12. Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles under 40.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3-3 with 2:08 left in Q1; 25 plays have produced only six points.
    • Live EPA is negative for both offenses: PHI -0.310/play, LAR -0.175/play.
    • PHI success rate is 33.3%; LAR's 13-play, 58-yard drive still ended only in a field goal.
    • Only 25 live plays are in the sample; early efficiency can regress sharply.
  13. Kyren Williams first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +500 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18% model probability versus 16.7% implied at FanDuel +500; fair price approximately +456.
    • Rams produced 5 red-zone touchdowns on 10 attempts; Kyren logged 9 red-zone involvements and 5 inside-10 involvements.
    • Kyren leads the Rams backfield with a 64.1% snap share and 38 carries through three games.
    • Rams usage is split: Blake Corum has a 32.1% snap share and 29 carries through three games.
  14. Los Angeles Rams first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams' Kyren Williams is the charted RB1/workhorse at a 64.1% snap share; Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley is a committee lead at 48.1%.
    • Rams have 10 red-zone drives and 5 scores through three games; Eagles have 9 and 6, but Philadelphia has two major live offensive outs: DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
    • Philadelphia's offense is at -0.1046 EPA/play to date versus -0.0071 for Los Angeles; the Eagles also lose Lane Johnson, strengthening the Rams' early defensive matchup.
    • Rams' own red-zone conversion is only 50% (5-of-10), versus Philadelphia's 66.7% (6-of-9).
  15. Kyren Williams touchdowns over 0.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.1% season snap share, RB1 and labeled workhorse; Blake Corum is second at 32.1% and labeled committee.
    • Kyren has 38 carries, 11 receptions and 2 touchdowns through three games, giving him the clearest Rams backfield access.
    • Rams have produced 5 red-zone scores on 10 trips; Philadelphia opponents have converted 7 of 12 red-zone trips.
    • The red-zone sample is only 10 Rams trips and 12 Eagles defensive trips, so conversion rates are noisy.
  16. Matthew Stafford over 250.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 61% fair estimate versus 53.1% break-even implies roughly +7.9 points.
    • Stafford has 872 yards and 111 attempts through three games: 290.7 yards and 37 attempts per game.
    • Rams lead recent 10-game form at +0.0809 offensive EPA/play; Eagles defense is +0.0347 EPA/play allowed.
    • Only three 2026 games: Stafford's yardage has ranged from 155 to 390.
  17. Los Angeles Rams spread −3
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams -3 pushes on a 3-point Rams win; Rams -3.5 loses in that same result.
    • ProphetX prices Rams -3 at 54.13c versus Rams -3.5 at 48.78c: only a 5.35c gap for the push option.
    • This is not a projection claim: Rams wins by 1, 2, or 4+ still lose on -3.
  18. Los Angeles Rams first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LAR has 7 rest days versus PHI's 6; the only rest mismatch favors the away side in the scripted window.
    • LAR offense is -0.0071 EPA/play versus PHI's -0.1046 (+0.0975); LAR defense is -0.0965 allowed versus PHI's +0.0347 (+0.1312).
    • Kalshi has a separate 9.5-cent tie contract; two-way sportsbook -160 treats a tied half as a push, so the sharp comparison is not a clean unconditional probability.
  19. Jalen Hurts first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +950 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 12%; fair price about +733 versus DraftKings +950.
    • Hurts has 16 rushing attempts and one rushing touchdown through three games while playing 97.8% of Eagles snaps.
    • Philadelphia's receiver and tight-end absences concentrate short-yardage and goal-line creation on Hurts and Barkley.
    • Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby remain competing goal-line rushers; Hurts can also hand off on the first scoring chance.
  20. Tyler Higbee over 3.5 receptions
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Active on the live participant board; latest depth chart lists Higbee TE3, with TE1 Colby Parkinson out and TE2 Terrance Ferguson on IR.
    • Recent role: Week 1 19.7% snap share/5 routes; Week 2 25.8%/4; Week 3 70.9%/48, 2026 trend is sharply upward.
    • Rams ran 57, 61, and 86 plays; pass rates were 48.2%, 55.2%, and 72.0%. Project 68 plays and 38 dropbacks; Higbee model is 4.1 receptions.
    • Most likely loss: the Rams revert to the Week 1-2 tight-end rotation, leaving Higbee near four-to-five routes and three or fewer catches.
  21. Los Angeles Rams–Philadelphia Eagles first-half total under 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 1H total 19.5: 2.0 points below the posted 21.5, with 60% modeled cover probability.
    • Full-game 42.5 implies a naive 1H 21.25; the projection diverges by 1.75 points, clearing the 0.75 gate.
    • All six recent Rams/Eagles game-level 1H totals were 21 or lower; the sample is 3 games per team.
    • Stafford and Hurts are active, while Rams and Eagles PROE is 13.2% and 9.4%; efficient passing can create early explosives.
  22. Kyren Williams fantasy points over 13.6
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi Week 4 scoring is PPR: +1 reception, +0.1 yard, +6 rush/receiving TD, +4 passing TD.
    • Kyren produced 13.1, 17.5, and 21.8 points in Weeks 1-3; two of three cleared 13.6.
    • Three-game totals are 38 carries, 12 targets, 11 receptions, 214 rushing yards, and 106 receiving yards.
    • Only three games support the current role and efficiency estimates; the distribution remains right-skewed.
  23. Kyren Williams receptions over 2.5
    +118%Won

    Taken at +118 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 58.0% for three or more receptions versus FanDuel +118 implied 45.9%: +12.1 points.
    • Williams has 11 receptions on 12 targets through three games, averaging 3.7 catches per game.
    • His 64.1% snap share ranks first among Rams backs; the live board lists him active as the workhorse RB.
    • The edge relies on only 12 targets; three games can badly overstate a running back's receiving role.
  24. Matthew Stafford passing yards over 250.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 60.0% over versus FanDuel -113 implied 53.1%: +6.9 points.
    • Stafford has 872 yards on 111 attempts in three games: 290.7 yards and 37 attempts per game.
    • His 95.2% offensive snap share confirms a stable QB1 role; he is listed active on the live prop board.
    • Rain can reduce downfield efficiency and create a more conservative passing plan.
  25. Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles game total under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 56.0% for the under versus FanDuel -102 implied 50.5%: +5.5 points.
    • The teams have scored 61 and 55 points through three games, a combined 38.7 points per game.
    • Philadelphia's current offense is -0.1226 EPA/play against Los Angeles' -0.0865 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Los Angeles' recent offense is positive at +0.0427 EPA/play against Philadelphia's +0.0608 defensive EPA allowed.
  26. Philadelphia Eagles team total under 19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates Philadelphia stays below 19.5 points 59.0% versus FanDuel -104 implied 51.0%: +8.0 points.
    • Philadelphia's recent offense produces -0.1226 EPA/play, 43.4% success, and 1.797 points per drive.
    • Los Angeles allows -0.0865 EPA/play on defense; Philadelphia's Smith, Goedert, and Lane Johnson are out.
    • Jalen Hurts' rushing and red-zone usage can create points without Philadelphia's top receivers.
  27. Los Angeles Rams spread +2.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stephen A. Smith's Oct. 3 First Take final pick: “Jalen Hurts will outplay Matt Stafford.”
    • The direct fade is Rams staying within 2.5 points, not requiring an outright win.
    • Polymarket US quotes Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at 68 cents, a live, identifiable contract.
    • “Outplay” is not identical to covering; Hurts can win the quarterback comparison while the Rams cover.

Questions

Who won Rams vs. Eagles?

The Rams won 24–20 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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