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Cardinals vs. GiantsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMetLife Stadium
Cardinals1–2
24–36Final
Giants2–1
Score by period
Team1234T
ARI1437024
NYG3168936

Top model pick, graded

Won

Michael Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards −110

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: Actual receiving yards averaged 54.3 across the last three games, a 34.1% shortfall.

NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-19 on this game · −2% return

  1. Game total under 44.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    4 models+EV Volume Handicapper, House Rules +2
    Why 4 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated under probability 59%; FanDuel -115 breaks even at 53.5%: +5.5 points.
    • The teams’ six 2026 games produced a blended 40.8-point average.
    • Arizona’s defense has allowed +0.1196 EPA/play over its recent 10-game window, creating shootout risk.
    House Rules
    • Under 44.5 wins at exactly 44; adjacent Under 44 pushes and refunds at exactly 44.
    • ProphetX prices Under 44.5 at 52.61c (-111) versus Under 44 at 50.98c (-104), only a 1.63c increment to turn 44 into a win.
    • The adjacent price gap can reprice or disappear before kickoff; this is a live exchange quote.
    Pace Ledger
    • 2 × the ProphetX first-half 20.5 total is 41.0, below the 44.5 full-game rung.
    • PROJECTION context: combined pace_to_date is 62.55 plays (ARI 30.13, NYG 32.42) across three 2026 games each; both teams have seven rest days and the game is not neutral.
    • The internal gap is modest: only 0.5 point versus team totals, while the first-half comparison is not strictly additive.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model estimates 59% under probability versus 53.5% implied by FanDuel -115: +5.5 points.
    • Combined current-season PPD is 3.918; Arizona and New York average only 21.0 and 15.3 points recently.
    • Arizona's defense has allowed 0.1196 EPA per play, creating turnover and short-field over risk.
  2. New York Giants spread +2.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power model 54.5% cover probability: NYG owns a +0.0492 defensive EPA/play edge and a +4.53-point explosive-rate edge; offense EPA and success rate are nearly even, and rest is 7 days each.
    • Opening Pinnacle fair price was 48.8% Giants cover; current is 50.5%, a +1.6-point move toward this side and not yet to the 54.5% rating.
    • The current-season efficiency sample is only three games, so the power rating has meaningful early-season variance.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score NYG -0.546 vs ARI -1.052; EPA edge +0.506.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.266: NYG -0.291 vs ARI -0.557.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
    Bills Belichicks
    • J. Harbaugh’s 182-114 career record implies 61.5% wins versus M. LaFleur’s 1-2 (33.3%), a 28.2-point coaching gap.
    • Giants’ recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.1325/play versus Arizona’s +0.1311 across the five-game window.
    • Arizona’s latest overall PFF team grade is 69.9 versus New York’s 62.5, with a large Cardinals offense-grade edge.
  3. Total Points under 44.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Key Number Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Both current offenses are negative at -0.0489 EPA/play (Arizona) and -0.0469 (New York) through 3 games.
    • Coverage gate passed: both teams have exactly 3 regular-season nfl_game_features rows; rest is even at 7 days and the venue is non-neutral.
    • Arizona's defense allows 0.1196 EPA/play, giving New York a path to exceed its -0.0469 offensive baseline.
    Key Number Pairs
    • Both current offenses are below zero EPA/play: Arizona -0.0489 and New York -0.0469; the projection stays near the 44-45 key-number cluster.
    • Pinnacle's reference total is also 44.5; the edge is the ProphetX rung density, not a sportsbook price.
    • Most likely loss: 45 or more points, with both defenses allowing positive current EPA/play: Arizona +0.1196 and New York +0.0704.
  4. Michael Wilson over 59.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Actual receiving yards averaged 54.3 across the last three games, a 34.1% shortfall.
    • Route participation stayed elite: 85.3%, 94.0%, and 93.0%; targets rose 7, 7, 17.
    • His 2026 yards per target is below last season's baseline, so the efficiency rebound may not arrive.
  5. New York Giants to winHigh conviction
    +118%Won

    Taken at +118 on FanDuel

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 60.1% Giants win probability from 538-game EPA-to-margin calibration; +118 implies 45.9%.
    • Last-10 net EPA/play differential favors New York by 0.216: +0.096 Giants versus -0.120 Arizona.
    • PIT current features through 9/27 give New York a +0.051 net-EPA differential, with equal seven-day rest.
    • The current-season sample is only three games; early-season efficiency estimates can be unstable.
  6. Over total 44.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US quotes Over 44.5 at 49c with Under 44.5 at 51.5c; status OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted.
    • Most likely loss: stalled red-zone possessions or turnovers leave the game below 45 despite pass-game intent.
Show all 29 picks
  1. Arizona Cardinals spread over 7.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial tier: both QBs confirmed, but each team has only 3 current-season games; calibrated p_anchor at ARI over 7.5 is 29.0%.
    • Model shifts the margin +0.5 points on near-even EPA, Arizona's 2.0212 versus 1.897 points per drive and +0.1588 PROE; p_model 30.5%, gap 1.5p. EV_anchor +7.4%, EV_model +13.0%, RECOMMENDED Tier 2.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona wins by 7 or fewer, with the 7.5 threshold offering no push.
  2. Trey McBride anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +155 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 34 targets and 26 catches in three games make McBride Arizona's most consistent high-value receiving option.
    • He already has two touchdowns and an 86.3% snap share, combining usage with proven finishing involvement.
    • Model anytime-TD probability about 45%; fair odds near +122 versus DraftKings +155.
    • DraftKings has already shaded him as a favorite; the edge depends on sustaining an unusually large target share.
  3. Michael Wilson first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1100 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 90.5% snap share gives him the clearest wideout route and red-zone access behind McBride.
    • Model first-TD probability about 9%; fair odds near +1010 versus DraftKings +1100.
    • Arizona has scored 63 points in three games; the market still offers a long first-score price.
    • First-TD outcomes are highly concentrated and one short-yardage call can bypass the passing game.
  4. New York Giants first-half spread +3.5Long shot
    +488%Won

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • ARI/NYG pregame offensive EPA are -0.049/-0.047; points per drive are 2.02/1.90, a near-even per-drive matchup.
    • ARI first-half -3.5 is priced at 76¢, while full-game ARI -3.5 is 61¢ and second-half ARI -1.5 is 43%; the half tail is overstated.
    • Live possession, field position, and injury information are incomplete; one short-field turnover can decide 3.5 points.
  5. Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants 2H total over 19.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; INTERNAL COHERENCE with VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: full-game 44.5 versus 1H 21.5 and 2H 21.5 leaves a 1.5-point reconciliation gap.
    • My fitted means are 21.5 first half and 23.0 second half, using current pace, EPA, points-per-drive and the full-game anchor.
    • Second-half over 19.5 prices at 60¢; the fitted probability is approximately 65%, a five-point disagreement.
    • Second-half scoring is conditioned on halftime game state; to-date pace and points-per-drive cannot model that state dependence.
  6. Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 90.7% snap share and 52 routes last week, up from 80.0% and 37 in Week 1.
    • 13, 10, and 11 targets across the last three regular-season games; 8.7 receptions per game.
    • He caught 9, 8, and 9 passes in that span, making 6.5 roughly 75% of the trailing reception projection.
    • target game is an obvious high-water mark and could regress sharply toward his 10-target baseline.
  7. Theo Johnson under 1.5 receptionsFavorite
    +40%Won

    Taken at −250 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role collapsed: 46.4% snaps/15 routes (W1), 27.6%/6 (W2), 17.2%/7 (W3).
    • Observed TE3: 30.9% season snaps and 28 routes; latest depth chart lists him TE2 behind Isaiah Likely.
    • Only 1 reception on 5 targets in his two receiving games; no reception in Week 3's 7-route role.
    • Theo is active, and the official inactive list removes TE4 Thomas Fidone II; late personnel usage could restore routes.
  8. Arizona Cardinals spread −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Through 3 games, Arizona's offense (-0.0489 EPA/play) versus New York's defense (+0.0704 allowed) rates better than New York's offense (-0.0469) versus Arizona's defense (+0.1196 allowed): roughly a 0.0472 EPA/play matchup edge.
    • PFF reference supports the side: Arizona offense 72.8 versus New York defense 57.9; both teams have 3-game current-season cards.
    • Rest is even at 7 days and the game is not neutral; Pinnacle's -2.5 reference is -103, making ProphetX's +102 the favorable venue price.
    • The efficiency sample is only 3 games per team; early-season variance remains meaningful despite clearing the coverage gate.
  9. Arizona Cardinals team total under 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 44.5 game total with NYG -2.5 implies roughly NYG 23.5 / ARI 21.0; the board reverses that with ARI 23.5 / NYG 20.5.
    • ARI is -0.0437 EPA/play with 1.968 points per drive; NYG allows -0.0291 defensive EPA/play in the to-date rollup.
    • Game features corroborate ARI offense at -0.0489 EPA/play, 30.13 seconds per play, and 2.0212 points per drive.
    • No starting-quarterback confirmation appears in the official injury reports; a surprise QB change could materially alter ARI's scoring outlook.
  10. Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nabers already has 2 receptions on 2 targets for 48 yards with 1:47 left in Q1.
    • He owns a 97.3% route rate and 12 receptions on 19 season targets through three games.
    • Receptions is preferred to his 101.5-yard market: five catches are needed, while 54 more yards are required there.
    • Five additional catches are still required; the live sample is only four Giants pass attempts.
  11. Trey McBride receiving yards over 64.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-draw CDF: 59% for 65+ yards versus 52.4% implied at -110.
    • McBride has 24 catches on 34 targets for 211 yards across three games.
    • Simulated game total 44.3 versus the 44.5 market total; environment gate passes by 0.2 points.
    • Exactly three games still requires shrinkage and keeps conviction below the high-conviction bar.
  12. Cam Skattebo first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +460 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 20.5% estimated first-score probability versus 18.2% implied by +460; fair price about +388.
    • Giants red-zone conversion: 4 touchdowns on 8 attempts through three games; Arizona allows +0.1196 defensive EPA/play to date.
    • Skattebo is the Giants' RB1 and workhorse: 65.4% snap share, 55 run snaps, 49 route snaps, and 50 carries in three games.
    • Giants' offense is only -0.0469 EPA/play and 0.4542 success rate; Arizona's defense is a fallback, not a full opponent-adjusted matchup model.
  13. Cam Skattebo first New York Giants touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cam owns a 65.4% live snap share and the warehouse labels him a workhorse.
    • Declared depth chart has Skattebo RB1; Devin Singletary is game-day Out via espn_live, leaving no unresolved runner ahead.
    • Goal-line role is derived from RB1 status and observed usage, not a single ground-truth goal-line column.
    • Live red-zone attempts and conversions were not yet populated, so current goal-line touch concentration is unknown.
  14. Trey McBride over 0.5 touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 34 targets through three games (13, 10, 11) with an 86.3% snap share; he is Arizona's TE1.
    • Arizona has converted 6 of 11 red-zone trips; New York has allowed the same 6-for-11 rate in its opponents' offense rows.
    • McBride's current depth-chart rank is 1, with no current-week injury designation ahead of him; Brissett is also confirmed as Arizona's QB1.
    • The red-zone figures are team-level proxies, not McBride-specific goal-line-touch data; his direct share is unknown.
  15. Jameis Winston under 206.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated under probability 60%; DraftKings -111 breaks even at 52.6%: +7.4 points.
    • Winston has thrown for 111 and 118 yards in his two 2026 regular-season starts.
    • Those starts used 27 and 22 attempts; both finished below the 206.5-yard line.
    • The two-game current-season sample is thin; Winston’s 2025 Giants sample included a 366-yard outlier.
  16. Total points over 44
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are over 3 versus under 3: neutral, but the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing qualifies. Backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides show 3 book levels.
  17. Arizona Cardinals −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied, 3 to 3; two of three measures agree, so this clears the desk's recommended two-measure bar but is not a three-measure signal.
    • Directional check: backing Arizona Cardinals -5.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the Arizona side: 3 versus 3, leaving the read dependent on availability and total depth.
  18. New York Giants spread +3
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Giants +3 refunds on an Arizona win by exactly 3; it covers on a Giants win or a loss by 1, 2.
    • ProphetX quotes Giants +3 at -123 (55.16¢), versus Giants +3.5 at -144 (59.02¢): only a 21-cent American-price gap.
    • The adjacent Giants +3.5 contract wins rather than pushes on an exact 3-point loss, so the price gap is the entire comparison.
  19. Arizona Cardinals first-half wins by over 2.5 points NO
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 7-7: no fatigue edge, so the case is against an oversized first-half rung.
    • to-date is nearly level offensively; NYG defensive EPA allowed is better, 0.0704 versus ARI 0.1196.
    • ARI PPD edge is only 0.1242; five drives imply roughly a 0.62-point margin, not 2.5.
    • The NO loses if Arizona leads by 3 or more; first-half scoring variance is wide.
  20. New York Giants spread +2
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Giants’ current defense allows +0.0704 EPA/play versus Arizona’s +0.1196; lower is better, supporting the home side.
    • New York is 2-1 with a -3.0 average margin over its last three, while Arizona is 1-2 at -6.0.
    • Personnel gate, ESPN lists Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston as the starters; neither starter is Out/Doubtful in the current injury surface.
    • Likeliest loss path: Arizona’s road offense, averaging +0.1084 EPA/play, creates enough explosive drives for a multi-score win.
  21. Michael Wilson over 5.5 receptions
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role trend: 92.3% and 91.2% route rates in Weeks 1-2; targets rose from 7 to 7 to 17.
    • Matchup: Giants have allowed wide receivers 155.7 yards and 37 receptions per game over three games.
    • Price context: FanDuel is +112 at 5.5 receptions, with the trailing average just above the line.
    • Two of three games stayed below 5.5; the 17-target Week 3 game drives the projection.
  22. Arizona Cardinals first touchdown
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona has 11 red-zone drives and 6 conversions through three games; New York has 8 and 4.
    • Arizona's pregame points per drive is 2.021 versus New York's 1.897, a modest scoring-opportunity edge.
    • Arizona's current depth chart has a healthy top-three RB/TE/WR structure; New York's game-day report lists RB Devin Singletary out.
    • First touchdown is highly sequence-dependent; opening-kick result and scripted opening-drive tendencies are unverified.
  23. Arizona Cardinals spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My pregame estimate gives Arizona a 45% chance to win by 4+, based on 2026 points per drive (2.0212 ARI vs 1.8970 NYG) and comparable offensive success.
    • Current reports identify Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston as the starting quarterbacks, removing the largest pregame identity uncertainty from the projection.
    • Most likely loss: New York keeps the game within a field goal or wins outright, so Arizona fails to clear -3.5.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Giants?

The Giants won 36–24 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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