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Chargers vs. SeahawksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLumen Field
Chargers0-3
23–30Final
Seahawks2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
LAC3371023
SEA71310030

Top model pick, graded

Won

Emanuel Wilson first touchdown +700

Why TD Value Model · DraftKings likes it: Model P(first TD) 14.5%; fair price +590 versus DraftKings +700.

TD Value Model · DraftKingsUp 6% return this season · 68 picksLongshots
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-28 on this game · −48% return

  1. Seattle Seahawks spread −74 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    4 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, CLV Sharp ATS +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • 0.46 net EPA/play matchup differential from the PIT game-feature matrix favors Seattle.
    • Seattle leads success rate 50.4% to 38.9% and explosive rate 13.6% to 10.9%.
    • Seattle's running-back room is depleted, with Zach Charbonnet out and George Holani limited.
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • DraftKings -7 is 0.5 points better than the sharp -7.5 consensus, capturing primary key number 7.
    • Five-game EPA/success blend projects Seattle -10.5, a 3.0-point edge versus the -7.5 consensus.
    • Drew Lock and Justin Herbert are listed as the depth leaders, but formal game-day active designations are not posted.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game sample: Seattle offense +0.09 EPA/play and defense -0.17 versus Chargers offense -0.27 and defense -0.07.
    • PFF’s latest 2026 card favors Seattle 84.3 overall, 79.5 offense and 76.8 defense versus Los Angeles at 66.2, 57.8 and 74.2.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle wins by 1-6 points or Los Angeles wins outright, missing -7.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Seattle's +0.09 offensive EPA/play versus Los Angeles' -0.27 creates a +0.36/play gap.
    • Seattle leads success rate .5039-.3887 and explosive rate .1358-.1094 through three games.
    • Likeliest loss path: Justin Herbert creates enough explosive passes for Los Angeles to stay within one score.
  2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −139 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Mister Price +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 9.0 receptions per game over the last three; outputs were 8, 9, and 10.
    • Chargers carry a 61.0 PFF coverage grade; Seattle has passed on 55.9% of recent plays.
    • Only three regular-season games support the recent usage sample.
    Mister Price
    • JSN has 11, 11 and 14 targets with 8, 9 and 10 receptions in Seattle's first three games.
    • His route snaps rose to 46 in Week 3 and his season snap share is 80.2%, ranked WR1.
    • This is still a three-game early-season sample, and 100% reception-line clearance is unstable.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model estimate: 66.5% over versus 58.2% break-even at -139, a +8.3-point edge.
    • Smith-Njigba has 27 receptions on 36 targets through three games, averaging 9.0 catches.
    • The sample is only three games, and 36 targets may regress toward a larger-season baseline.
  3. Seattle Seahawks −73 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread: Seattle -8.5 versus DraftKings -7, a 1.5-point edge.
    • Through Week 3, Seattle leads LAC by 0.36 EPA/play on offense and 0.10 defensive EPA/play.
    • ESPN's independent predictor projects Seattle by 6.76, essentially matching the spread rather than our larger edge.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Seattle EPA Strategy Score 0.93 vs Los Angeles -0.16: EPA Edge +1.09.
    • Component z-scores, OPass +1.14/-0.92, ORush -0.66/-0.54, DPass +0.83/+0.01, DRush +2.28/+0.42 (SEA/LAC).
    • Only three 2026 regular-season games inform each team, so early-season league-relative z-scores are unstable.
    House Rules
    • Seattle -7 refunds on exactly a 7-point win; -7.5 loses and -6.5 wins on that outcome.
    • The read is specifically Seattle Seahawks -7; the submitted leg matches that exact whole-number contract.
    • Seattle -7 loses on a 1-6 point win or any Seattle loss; Seattle -6.5 is superior if the margin is exactly 7.
  4. Seattle Seahawks −7.02 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model estimate: 59.5% cover versus 52.8% break-even at -112, a +6.7-point edge.
    • Seattle leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.09 to Los Angeles' -0.27; defense EPA allowed is -0.17 versus -0.07.
    • Both teams have only three 2026 games, so early-season efficiency is noisy.
    Number Earned
    • Independent pre-kickoff estimate makes Seattle -9.5 fair; 56% cover probability at -7.
    • Seattle leads to-date home offense EPA/play 0.09 to Los Angeles' -0.27; success rate is 0.50 vs 0.39.
    • The model is built on only three 2026 regular-season games, so early-season EPA and efficiency are noisy.
  5. Seattle Seahawks to winFavorite2 models agree
    +32%Won

    Taken at 76¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Brewing NFL Ml
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Seattle 3 versus Chargers 3: tied, so the two supporting measures are thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count does not corroborate with an advantage.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Seattle leads current opponent-adjusted EPA: +0.09 offense and -0.17 defense versus Chargers -0.27 and -0.07.
    • QB edge is substantial: Drew Lock grades 91.4 passing with 1.9% TWP; Justin Herbert grades 46.8 with 6.0% TWP.
    • Seattle lost its latest game 33-31; the model relies heavily on only three games of 2026 form.
  6. Game total under 43.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring averages combine for 39.7 points through three games, 3.8 below the total.
    • Last-10 points per drive sum to 3.59; both offenses are below-average in the supplied EPA profile.
    • Seattle allows -0.13 defensive EPA/play and the Chargers offense is -0.13 EPA/play over the last-10 window.
    • Only three current-season games anchor the scoring average; Seattle scored 31 in each of its first two wins.
Show all 36 picks
  1. Under total 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  2. Under total 43
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model under 54.5% with a 40.5-point projection; current-season scoring averages total 39.7 points.
    • Seattle home defense: -0.17 EPA/play; Chargers offense: -0.27 EPA/play and 1.31 points/drive.
    • Both teams have seven rest days; neither side brings an unusually fast pace (30.94/31.98 seconds per play).
    • Most likely loss: Seattle's .1358 explosive-play rate creates short fields or touchdowns despite the defensive matchup.
  3. Oronde Gadsden II anytime touchdown overLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +360 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 24.0%; fair price +317 versus DraftKings +360.
    • Charlie Kolar is ruled out; Gadsden ran 31 routes last week and owns 40.8% season snap share.
    • Gadsden has seven targets and one touchdown in three games despite a modest early role.
    • Los Angeles averages only 1.53 points per drive over the recent ten-game window.
  4. Emanuel Wilson first touchdownLong shot
    +700%Won

    Taken at +700 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 14.5%; fair price +590 versus DraftKings +700.
    • 32 carries and 109 rushing yards through three games; Seattle lost Charbonnet and Price to outs.
    • Seattle owns strong recent offense: +0.11 and +0.22 offensive EPA/play in its last two games.
    • Wilson has zero touchdowns this season and only 0.18 route participation; passing-down work may stay limited.
  5. Game first-half total under 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PPD baseline: Seattle 2.26 plus Los Angeles 1.31; a 5.5-drive half calibration yields approximately 19.6 points.
    • EPA matchup inputs favor restraint: Seattle offense +0.09, Los Angeles offense -0.27; defensive EPA allowed is -0.17 and -0.07.
    • Full-game total SD is 13.95 across 2,809 games; square-root drive scaling gives half SD about 9.86, model under probability approximately 65%.
    • Only three 2026 games per team make the PPD and EPA inputs an early-season, thin sample.
  6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 93.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle’s OL/DL matchup: 63.9 pass-block grade, 97.2 PBE versus LAC’s 66.4 pass-rush grade.
    • Mechanism confirmed: Darnold had 3.29-second time-to-throw and only 5.9% pressure-to-sack rate this season.
    • JSN cleared 122, 155, and 128 yards on 11, 11, and 14 targets; 4.35 yards per route run.
    • Sharp devigged reference is only 49.8% over, so the model disagrees materially with Pinnacle.
  7. Tre Harris over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role trend: Week 1 74.5% snaps/31 routes, Week 2 82.1%/25, Week 3 58.0%/26.
    • Observed WR2 by season snap rank; latest chart lists him WR3, while the live board confirms Harris Active.
    • Most likely loss: targets concentrate on Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, leaving Harris at three or fewer catches.
  8. Justin Herbert over 18.5 passing completions
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Herbert attempted 27, 27, and 34 passes across his first three games: stable, rising opportunity.
    • A 76.0% prior-season accuracy baseline implies 66.9 completions on 88 attempts; he has 52, a 22.3% shortfall.
    • He played 100% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in each of those three games.
    • Completion-rate regression from a prior-season baseline may not carry into this season’s offense.
  9. Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17 targets over three games; his 2025 rate implies 141 expected yards, or 47.0 per game.
    • Snap share rose 78.2% → 80.6% → 87.0%; route snaps were 30, 26, and 37.
    • The 47.0-yard projection is 28.8% above DraftKings’ 36.5-yard line.
    • Three-game sample; a few missed deep opportunities can keep the regression from arriving.
  10. Total Points under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game to-date efficiency: Chargers offense -0.27 EPA/play versus Seattle defense -0.17; Seattle offense is +0.09 versus Chargers defense -0.07.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Seattle 84.3 overall to Los Angeles 66.2, with defenses graded 76.8 and 74.2; a Seattle-controlled game need not become a shootout.
    • Sportsbook reference spans 42.5 to 43, while ProphetX offers the under at 42.5; venue self-reference confirms the exact live rung and size.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle's +0.09 offensive EPA/play and pass tendency create explosive scores or short fields above 42.5.
  11. Los Angeles Chargers team total under 16.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LAC averages 1.31 points per drive; roughly 10, 11 possessions projects to about 13, 14 points.
    • LAC is 5-for-9 in regular-season red-zone conversions, offering little margin against a strong Seattle defense.
    • Board shape looks spread-split: roughly 17 LAC plus 24.5 Seattle is near the 42.5 game total and seven-point spread; matchup data drives this pick.
    • Only three regular-season games underpin the EPA, drive, and red-zone samples; substantial regression risk remains.
  12. Seattle Seahawks spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle’s 2026 EPA profile is stronger: +0.09 offense and -0.17 defense versus Chargers -0.27 and -0.07.
    • 2026 PFF team grades favor Seattle 84.3 to 66.2; Herbert and Drew Lock are current QB1s without an Out/Doubtful designation.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle wins by 7 or fewer; exactly 7 loses at -7.5.
  13. Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards over 91.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-draw CDF: 60% for 92+ yards versus 52.8% implied at -112.
    • Smith-Njigba has 30 receptions on 36 targets for 405 yards through three games.
    • Simulated game total 43.3 versus the 42.5 market total; environment gate passes by 0.8 points.
    • His route-share range is wide, so the model retains meaningful role variance despite three games.
  14. Game under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chargers season offense: -0.27 EPA/play and 1.31 points/drive; Seattle defense: -0.17 EPA/play.
    • Last six: Chargers offense -0.14 EPA/play; Seattle defense -0.12; both support a lower-scoring matchup.
    • Pace is slow: 30.24 seconds/play for Los Angeles and 32.57 for Seattle in recent form.
    • Seattle offense is efficient: 0.09 EPA/play and 2.26 points/drive to date.
  15. Game total under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 points through 7:33 Q1, but 17 plays produced only 81 yards and three turnovers.
    • -0.51 EPA/play, 36.4% success, 0% explosive rate across 11 plays.
    • 0.11 EPA/play and 66.7% success across six plays; current pace is not sustaining the early touchdown.
    • The sample is only 17 plays; SEA's 33.3% explosive rate is driven by two early gains.
  16. Emanuel Wilson over 0.5 touchdowns
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle produced 12 red-zone attempts and 7 makes through three games; LAC allowed 12 attempts and 7 makes.
    • Current depth chart lists Wilson RB1; Charbonnet is out and Jadarian Price is on injured reserve.
    • Wilson's 57.1% run-snap rate supports a derived goal-line-role judgment, not a literal goal-line stat.
    • Wilson's season snap share was only 29.9%; the promotion creates an unproven workload change.
  17. Seattle Seahawks first team touchdownFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle has 12 red-zone possessions and 7 conversions through three games (58.3%); LAC has allowed 5 scores on 9 trips (55.6%).
    • Seattle leads the pregame efficiency read: +0.09 offensive EPA/play and 2.26 points/drive versus LAC at -0.27 and 1.31.
    • AJ Barner (86.1% snap share) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (80.2%) provide concentrated, active red-zone-capable personnel rather than a single fragile RB dependency.
    • Seattle's quarterback identity is conflicted: the depth chart lists Sam Darnold first, while the usage feed led with Drew Lock and ESPN's Darnold status is Out.
  18. Game total under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 42.5 wins at exactly 42; adjacent under 42 pushes there.
    • ProphetX under 42 +111 (47.39¢) versus under 42.5 +105 (48.78¢).
    • Historical exact-42 frequency may not represent this matchup's scoring distribution.
  19. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 122, 155, and 128 receiving yards in his first three games: 135.0 average.
    • That average is 45.9% above the 92.5 PrizePicks line; he cleared it in all three.
    • BetMGM is posting the same 92.5-yard line at -115; the sportsbook market confirms a live, active participant.
    • Three-game sample is thin, and the 155-yard outlier inflates the average.
  20. Game total under 28.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s live 43.0 total was -102 over / -110 under, devigging to roughly 49.1% over.
    • the pace/PROE/drive model centers at 41.5 points with a 13.0-point SD; Under 28.5 is estimated near 15%.
    • Three-game inputs produce 39.8 raw projected points: 61 plays per side, Chargers 1.31 PPD, Seahawks 2.26 PPD; sharp 43.0 is the center anchor.
    • The 43.0 sharp reference is 14.5 points above this rung, so this is Tier 2 interpolation rather than a same-line sharp quote.
  21. Total points under 43
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The current-season offensive EPA/play average is -0.09: Seattle +0.09, Los Angeles -0.27; the Chargers’ offense is the key drag on the total.
    • Seattle’s defense is -0.17 EPA/play and Los Angeles’ is -0.07; both teams have played three current-season games and pace averages 31.46 seconds/play.
    • Likeliest loss path: Seattle’s +0.09 offensive EPA/play and explosive plays overcome the Chargers’ offensive drag, pushing the game above 43.
  22. Seattle Seahawks second-half spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game SEA -10.5 and 1H SEA -3.5 imply roughly SEA -7 in the second half; the board offers -4.5.
    • SEA to-date offense is +0.09 EPA/play and defense -0.17; LAC offense is -0.27 EPA/play.
    • Square-root scaling matters: half-margin standard deviation scales with √drives, not a linear half-game spread.
    • Second-half distributions are conditioned on halftime score; to-date averages cannot fully model game-state adjustments.
  23. Los Angeles Chargers first-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current pace is 31.98 seconds/play for Seattle and 30.94 for Los Angeles; the EPA/PPD gap favors Seattle but does not imply a runaway half.
    • The fitted half-margin distribution uses square-root scaling: margin SD grows with sqrt(drives), not linearly; 14.14 full-game signed-margin SD implies roughly 10.0 half SD.
    • Seattle's 2026 points per drive is 2.26 versus Los Angeles at 1.31; sustained efficiency could push the half margin beyond the model's 4, 4.5-point center.
  24. Quentin Johnston under 36.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21.3 receiving yards per game over the last three, with results of 17, 7, and 40.
    • He had exactly six targets in each game, while the 36.5-yard line sits well above that recent production.
    • Los Angeles averaged only -0.27 offensive EPA per play and 1.31 points per drive in its last three.
    • Johnston's snap share rose from 78.2% to 80.6% to 87.0%, preserving a large route opportunity.
  25. Jaxon Smith-Njigba fantasy points over 22.2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi Week 4 scoring is PPR: +1 reception, +0.1 yard, +6 rush/receiving TD, +4 passing TD.
    • 36 targets, 27 receptions, 405 receiving yards, and 6 receiving TDs through three games.
    • Jaxon owns a 92.7 PFF offense grade, 93.1 route grade, and 4.35 yards per route run.
    • Only three current-season games; six receiving TDs create substantial touchdown regression risk.
  26. Jaxon Smith-Njigba receptions over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −139 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 64% to reach 7+ receptions versus DraftKings -139 implied 58.2% (+5.8 points).
    • Smith-Njigba has 27 receptions on 36 targets through three games: 9, 9, and 10 catches.
    • His 93.0% route rate and 80.2% offensive snap share establish a stable every-down role.
    • Seattle quarterback deployment has changed during the season, so passer volatility can lower catchable targets.
  27. Los Angeles Chargers team total under 17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Chargers stay under 17.5 points 63% versus FanDuel -136 implied 57.6% (+5.4 points).
    • Los Angeles has scored 14, 14, and 16 points in its three 2026 games.
    • Chargers' current-season offensive EPA/play is -0.27 with 1.31 points per drive.
    • Ladd McConkey remains questionable, and a full workload could improve the Chargers passing offense.
  28. Seattle Seahawks spread −7.0
    0%Push

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Seattle covers 58% versus DraftKings -112 implied 52.8% (+5.2 points).
    • Seattle leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.09 to -0.27 and success rate 0.50 to 0.39.
    • Seattle's 2.26 points/drive trails a Chargers 1.31 mark by nearly one point per drive.
    • The estimated edge is only just above the 5-point low-conviction threshold; variance can dominate.
  29. Seattle Seahawks spread −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle leads 7-3 in Q1 and has the stronger live process: -0.14 offensive EPA/play versus Los Angeles at -0.65.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles stabilizes its offense and Seattle wins by nine or fewer, despite controlling the game.
  30. Game total under 43
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's defense is -0.17 EPA/play allowed through Week 3; Los Angeles' offense is -0.27 EPA/play.
    • Points per drive are 2.26 for Seattle and 1.31 for Los Angeles, supporting a low-scoring game script.
    • Pinnacle also prices the under at -110 at 43; ProphetX is the better venue price.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle's efficient offense turns short fields or explosive plays into a 44+ point game.

Questions

Who won Chargers vs. Seahawks?

The Seahawks won 30-23 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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