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Broncos vs. 49ersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLevi's Stadium
Broncos2–1
14–24Final
49ers3–0
Score by period
Team1234T
DEN3001114
SF0371424

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Francisco 49ers to win −156

Why Brewing NFL Ml likes it: Brock Purdy's 81.0 PFF passing grade and 0.0% pressure-to-sack rate materially exceed Bo Nix's 48.0 and 11.6%.

Brewing NFL MlDown 4% this season · 64 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 32-10 on this game · +799% return

  1. San Francisco 49ers to win7 models agreeHigh conviction
    +64%Won

    Taken at −156 on FanDuel

    7 modelsBrewing NFL Ml, Quantitative +EV Analyst +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Brock Purdy's 81.0 PFF passing grade and 0.0% pressure-to-sack rate materially exceed Bo Nix's 48.0 and 11.6%.
    • San Francisco's offensive line has 73.7 pass-block grade and 16 pressures allowed; Denver has 59.7 and 30.
    • Nick Bosa is out and Mike Evans remains questionable, reducing San Francisco's defensive and receiving ceilings.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • FPI projects San Francisco by 7.9 points against a market spread near 3.
    • Last-10 net EPA/play is +0.091 for San Francisco versus -0.008 for Denver, a +0.100 differential.
    • FPI is a vendor baseline, not an independent calibrated model; the current-season feature sample covers only three games.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • San Francisco leads current-season offensive EPA/play 0.3379 to -0.1472, a +0.4851 gap.
    • The 49ers lead success rate .5942 to .4022 and explosive rate .1617 to .1123 through three games.
    • Likeliest loss path: Denver's pass rush and Bo Nix's mobility turn a close road game into a Broncos upset.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • ESPN FPI projects San Francisco at 77.9% to win; FanDuel break-even is 60.9%.
    • SF leads current EPA/play 0.338 to Denver's -0.147 and success rate 59.4% to 40.2%.
    • Mike Evans remains questionable on the 12:22pm PT game-day report; his absence could reduce SF's passing edge.
  2. San Francisco 49ers spread −3.54 models agree
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Key Number Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • through 3 completed 2026 games, San Francisco offense is +0.3379 EPA/play versus Denver defense at +0.0276; Denver offense is -0.1472 versus San Francisco defense at -0.0605.
    • Latest 2026 PFF card favors San Francisco 80.8 overall and 82.2 offense versus Denver 64.8 and 63.7; both teams have 3 completed feature rows.
    • Most likely loss: San Francisco wins by 1-3 points or Denver wins outright, missing -3.5.
    Key Number Pairs
    • To-date EPA: SF offense +0.3379 versus Denver -0.1472; SF defense -0.0605 versus Denver +0.0276.
    • DraftKings and Pinnacle reference the 49ers at -3, corroborating the favorite direction.
    • Most likely loss: Denver wins outright or San Francisco wins by three points or fewer.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • ProphetX's live board prices SF moneyline -150 (60.00¢) but SF -3.5 at +124 (44.64¢), an unusually wide same-event relationship.
    • Through three games, San Francisco leads Denver in offensive EPA/play, 0.3379 to -0.1472, and success rate, .5942 to .4022.
    • Likeliest loss path: Denver wins outright or San Francisco wins by three or fewer, making the 3.5-point margin decisive.
    Long Way Home
    • San Francisco averaged +0.338 offensive EPA/play through three regular-season games; Denver averaged -0.147.
    • The 49ers’ regular-season margins are +20, +22, and +6, versus Denver’s -21, +7, and +4.
    • Most likely loss: San Francisco wins by three or fewer, or Denver wins outright, leaving the -3.5 uncovered.
  3. San Francisco 49ers spread −32 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score SF +1.302 vs DEN -0.276; EPA edge +1.579.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.929: SF +0.720 vs DEN -0.208.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • SF PIT offense EPA/play is +0.3379 versus Denver -0.1472; defense allowed EPA is -0.0605 versus +0.0276.
    • Success rate is .5942 to .4022 and PFF overall grade 80.8 to 64.8, supporting a fair line near SF -4.5.
    • Nick Bosa is out; Mike Evans and Dre Greenlaw remain questionable, so final availability can move the fair line.
  4. 2-leg parlayLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +32600

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • 25 finals show exact 3-point margins in 406 games, 14.715% of the sample; SF -3 is the exact priced contract.
    • Detroit -4 pushes on an exact four-point Detroit win; adjacent -4.5 cannot push.
    • The 14.715% and 4.639% figures are all-game key-number masses, not team-specific conditional probabilities.
    Long Way Home
    • NE live EPA/play .3042 vs BUF .2027; success 53.3% vs 43.8% at 7-7.
    • SF PPD to date 3.725 vs Denver 1.7185; recent scoring margins +16.0 vs -3.3.
    • Most likely failure: Buffalo's stronger pregame prior converts the tied game into second-half control.
  5. San Francisco 49ers −32 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Blended 2025/2026 EPA matchup model makes San Francisco -4.6, a 1.6-point edge at -3.
    • 2026 pre-kickoff offense EPA: San Francisco +0.3379 versus Denver -0.1472; success rates are 0.5942 versus 0.4022.
    • Nick Bosa is out, while Mike Evans and Dre Greenlaw remain questionable near kickoff.
    House Rules
    • A San Francisco -3 ticket pushes if San Francisco wins by exactly 3; the adjacent -2.5 wins on that same margin.
    • ProphetX prices SF -3 at +102 (49.50¢) versus SF -2.5 at -120 (54.55¢), a 5.05-point gap.
    • ProphetX's own ladder is the price comparison, not an independent sharp reference; the exchange may be efficiently incorporating the push option elsewhere.
  6. Second half ends levelLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Quoted 2H draw is 0.07: a 0.06 probability-point contradiction on the same venue.
    • Contract text names the second half directly; the handicap pair is the same isolated half.
    • Contract slug: atc-nfl-den-sf-2026-10-04-winner-2h-draw; reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • All quoted prices were live, but the market is lightly traded relative to the full-game board.
Show all 30 picks
  1. San Francisco 49ers first-half spread over 2.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest is even at 7 days each; SF has no rest disadvantage.
    • EPA gap: SF offense +0.3379 vs DEN -0.1472 (+0.4851); SF defense -0.0605 vs DEN +0.0276.
    • Success rate is .5942 to .4022, while points per drive are 3.725 to 1.7185 for San Francisco.
    • Denver leads 3-0 with 1:43 left in Q1; current field position and possession state can prevent a three-point halftime margin.
  2. Courtland Sutton over 39.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 PFF yprr was 1.53; 2026 is 0.91 through three games, a 40.5% efficiency shortfall.
    • Sutton has 90 routes and 78.6% average snap share across the last three games.
    • DraftKings moved 40.5 to 39.5, but the lower number still leaves the regression edge.
    • Only 16 targets over three games, just 5.3 per contest, so opportunity may not fully convert.
  3. Game total under 22.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION class, Tier 2: sharp Pinnacle live center is 40.5; this rung is 18 points into the wing.
    • Derived reference: 40.5 mean with roughly 13.1-point SD puts Under 22.5 near 7.3%.
    • The 22.5 tail is intrinsically less certain than the central total; a single short-field score can erase the edge.
  4. San Francisco 49ers spread 3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived p_anchor at SF wins by over 3.5 is 46.3%; Kalshi mid differs 1.8p, inside the 3p reference limit.
    • Partial coverage: both teams have only 3 current-season games, so the 1.0-point model shift is sample-sensitive.
  5. San Francisco 49ers first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: San Francisco 7 days, Denver 7; efficiency, not rest, drives the position.
    • to-date gap: SF offense +0.338 and defense -0.061 versus Denver offense -0.147 and defense +0.028.
    • Success rate is .594 SF versus .402 Denver; points per drive are 3.725 versus 1.719.
    • Equal rest removes the brief's strongest lever; this is an efficiency projection rather than a rest mismatch.
  6. San Francisco 49ers spread −2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.224 recent offensive EPA/play for San Francisco versus -0.071 for Denver.
    • 49ers defense allowed -0.112 EPA/play versus Denver's +0.001.
    • PFF overall grades favor San Francisco 80.8 to 64.8; passing grades 81.0 to 48.0.
    • Mike Evans is questionable and Nick Bosa is out; the final impact of San Francisco's personnel is uncertain.
  7. Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers 2Q total under 13.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier: RECOMMENDED; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; named class: PROJECTION.
    • Season-to-date points per drive: Denver 1.719 and San Francisco 3.725 across three games; two possessions each projects roughly 10.9 points.
    • Denver entered with -0.147 offensive EPA/play; San Francisco's defense allowed -0.061 EPA/play, suppressing the lower-efficiency side of this matchup.
    • San Francisco starts Q2 at the Denver 37 on an unfinished drive; an early touchdown makes 13.5 vulnerable.
  8. George Kittle anytime touchdown
    +165%Won

    Taken at +165 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kittle has 16 targets and 3 receiving touchdowns through three games.
    • His PFF pass-route grade is 90.2 with 3.11 yards per route run.
    • Route involvement rose to 28 routes and 46 snaps last week in San Francisco's 3.725 points-per-drive offense.
    • Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans materially divide San Francisco red-zone work.
  9. Game total under 29.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • 48.5 full-game total plus 24.5 first-half anchor implies roughly 24, 26 second-half points, not 29.5.
    • Square-root scaling makes half-game SD about 0.71 of full-game SD, not a linear half; the lower second-half mean still dominates this mismatch.
    • Only three 2026 games feed the current PPD inputs: San Francisco 3.725 versus Denver 1.719.
  10. Total Points under 48.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game sample: Denver offense is -0.1472 EPA/play versus San Francisco defense at -0.0605 allowed; San Francisco's +0.3379 offense faces Denver's +0.0276 defense.
    • PFF reference favors San Francisco 80.8 overall and 82.2 offense versus Denver 64.8 and 63.7, supporting a controlled 49ers game rather than a two-way shootout.
    • the captured sportsbook total is also 48.5; it is context only, not the placement argument.
    • Most likely loss: San Francisco converts its +0.3379 offensive EPA/play efficiently and the game reaches 49 points.
  11. Denver Broncos under 23.5 team points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.75 baseline points: Denver's 1.7185 points/drive across 10.33 drives.
    • Denver offense is -0.1472 EPA/play; San Francisco defense allows -0.0605 EPA/play.
    • PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE; 48.5 total and SF -2.5 imply roughly 23 Denver points, a spread-split rung this matchup model rejects.
    • Three-game sample: Denver averages only 2.0 red-zone makes on 3.33 trips per game.
  12. Game over 48.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF's current offense is +0.3379 EPA/play with a 0.5942 success rate; Denver is -0.1472 and 0.4022.
    • Last-six form favors scoring: SF offense +0.1733 EPA/play and 2.784 points/drive; Denver defense allows +0.0276 EPA/play.
    • Personnel grades show an 82.2 SF team versus 63.7 Denver, with an 81.0-to-48.0 passing-grade gap.
    • Denver's last-six offense is -0.0667 EPA/play, while SF's defense allows -0.0907; the Broncos could contribute very little.
  13. RJ Harvey over 33.5 receiving yards
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live 3-0 at start of Q2; Denver has thrown on 80% of 16 first-quarter plays.
    • Harvey already has 4 receptions on 4 targets for 17 yards, matching his current role immediately.
    • Denver generated +0.0753 EPA/play with a 50% success rate; SF allowed +0.0753 EPA/play in the quarter.
    • One-quarter usage sample can regress sharply; 4 targets may not persist.
  14. George Kittle receiving yards over 62.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-draw CDF: 58% for 63+ yards versus 53.1% implied at -113.
    • Kittle has 12 catches on 16 targets for 174 yards in three games, including 80 and 82 yards in the last two.
    • His route share jumped to 85.2% last week after 46.2% and 48.1%; the three-game sample remains usable but volatile.
    • Route participation is highly volatile across the three games, limiting conviction to medium.
  15. San Francisco 49ers first touchdown
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Verified SF usage concentrates goal-line equity: Christian McCaffrey is the RB1/workhorse at 63.2% snaps; Kittle and Deebo are the primary skill complements.
    • Denver's defense has allowed 5 red-zone scores on 11 opponent possessions (45.5%); SF's offense EPA/play is +0.338 versus Denver's -0.147.
    • The red-zone sample is only 10 possessions, so the 90% conversion rate can regress sharply.
  16. Christian McCaffrey touchdowns over 0.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco has 10 red-zone trips and 9 conversions through three games (3.3 trips per game).
    • McCaffrey is the depth-chart RB1, labeled workhorse, with a 63.2% snap share plus 35 rushes and 17 targets.
    • San Francisco's +0.338 offensive EPA-to-date versus Denver's -0.147 supports a favorable home game script and concentrated goal-line equity.
    • Denver opponents have converted only 5 of 11 red-zone trips, a meaningful defensive counter-signal.
  17. San Francisco 49ers −2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: San Francisco 49ers 2 vs Denver Broncos 2; neutral, while the core two-measure pattern qualifies.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 2 levels.
  18. Total points over 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, ProphetX's own ladder, with no independent sharp reference used.
    • Book levels are tied 3 to 3, so two of three measures agree. Direction check: backing over 48.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: book_levels are tied 3-3, so this is not a three-measure signal.
  19. Christian McCaffrey under 16.5 rushing attempts
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.7 carries per game through three weeks, 29% below the 16.5 line.
    • Under 16.5 in all three games: 10, 10, and 15 attempts.
    • McCaffrey is active, RB1 on the official depth chart, and fully practiced Friday.
    • San Francisco is favored, and a positive game script can create extra McCaffrey carries.
  20. Pat Bryant over 22.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70.1% snap share and 31 routes in Week 3, up from 58.8% and 22 in Week 1.
    • 86 receiving yards through three regular-season games: 28.7-yard trailing average.
    • FanDuel posts 22.5 at -113, below 85% of Bryant's 28.7-yard trailing projection.
    • Only 9 targets across three games; the 42/44-yard games surround a zero-yard outing.
  21. Bo Nix under 222.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair probability 58.5%; DraftKings -112 implies 52.8%, an estimated +5.7-point gap.
    • Nix averages 201.7 passing yards through three games, with 605 yards on 93 attempts.
    • His 48.0 PFF passing grade and 11.6% pressure-to-sack rate meet San Francisco's 39-pressure defensive front.
    • San Francisco is without Nick Bosa, reducing pressure upside and increasing completion opportunities.
  22. Denver Broncos team total under 23.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair probability 63%; FanDuel -122 implies 55.0%, an estimated +8.0-point gap.
    • Denver averages 20.0 points through three games and posts only 1.7185 current-season points per drive.
    • San Francisco's current defense allows -0.0605 EPA/play; its recent five-game defensive EPA allowed is -0.1122.
    • Denver scored 30 last week, and Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton are active receiving options.
  23. Brock Purdy over 233.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 263 passing yards per game through three 2026 starts: 205, 287, 297.
    • Purdy has cleared 233.5 yards in two of three games and averages 9.5 yards per attempt.
    • SF's +0.3379 offensive EPA/play meets a Denver defense at +0.0276 EPA/play allowed.
    • The three-game sample includes one clear miss: 205 yards in Week 1.
  24. Game total under 39.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The under is directionally coherent with the existing San Francisco spread position: a controlled 49ers win does not require a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: two quick touchdown drives or a short-field turnover create 37 or more additional points.

Questions

Who won Broncos vs. 49ers?

The 49ers won 24–14 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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