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Packers vs. BuccaneersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium
Packers1–2
17–14Final
Buccaneers0–3
Score by period
Team1234T
GB0107017
TB070714

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tucker Kraft over 40.5 receiving yards −111

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: Projected 63.0 yards from 5.7 targets per game and his 2025 11.1 yards-per-target baseline.

NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-15 on this game · +10% return

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Brewing NFL Ml +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; the signal comes from ProphetX's own ladder, with no independent sharp reference used.
    • Venue self-reference is not independent validation; order flow can be stale, cancelled, strategic, or unrelated to outcome quality.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Tampa Bay’s opponent-adjusted offense EPA/play is -0.007 versus Green Bay’s -0.135; success rate is .464 versus .411.
    • Tampa Bay’s defense EPA allowed is -0.003 versus Green Bay’s +0.079; its OL pass-block grade is 71.7 versus Green Bay’s 48.8.
    • Daniels has only 4 NFL dropbacks; his CPOE and pressure response are effectively unmodeled, making this a backup-QB scenario.
    NFL baby
    • 0.209 net EPA/play gap favors Tampa Bay: -0.0042 versus Green Bay's -0.2131.
    • Tampa leads current-season success rate 46.4% to 41.1% and defense EPA allowed is -0.0029 versus Green Bay's +0.0786.
    • Jalon Daniels is making his first NFL start after Baker Mayfield was ruled out; the quarterback downgrade could erase the efficiency edge.
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread +2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Luck Regression, NFL Trench Mismatch
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • LuckScore: Green Bay 0.095 vs Tampa Bay -0.418; LuckDifference 0.513 favors fading Green Bay.
    • PrimaryLuck: Green Bay 0.202 vs Tampa Bay -0.350; difference 0.552 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • The signal barely clears both thresholds; variance can dominate a 0.513 LuckScore gap.
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • GB offense vs TB defense TrenchScore: -0.80; TB offense vs GB defense: +0.04.
    • TrenchEdge is -0.84 toward Tampa; primary pass-trench edge is -0.87, clearing both required thresholds.
    • GB's defense still has a stronger pass-rush-win proxy than Tampa's front, limiting the offensive-line advantage.
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread +32 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score TB +0.074 vs GB -0.521; EPA edge +0.596.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.555: TB +0.144 vs GB -0.412.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Tampa Bay 3 versus Green Bay 3; two measures agree and thin-side quote size exceeds $900.
    • SHARP REFERENCE secondary only: Pinnacle shows Tampa Bay +3 at -110; ProphetX offers -105. Directional check: backing Tampa Bay +3, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
  4. Total points under 38.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Under 3 versus Over 3; two measures agree and thin-side quote size exceeds $700.
    • SHARP REFERENCE secondary only: Pinnacle prices Under 38.5 at -111; ProphetX offers +108. Directional check: backing Under 38.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Current offenses average -0.0708 EPA/play: Green Bay -0.1345 and Tampa Bay -0.0071; success rates are .4112 and .4642.
    • Personnel is confirmed live: Tampa Bay starts rookie Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out; Green Bay starts Jordan Love.
    • Green Bay's .1172 explosive-play rate and fast 26.50-second pace can create extra scoring chances.
  5. Tucker Kraft over 40.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 63.0 yards from 5.7 targets per game and his 2025 11.1 yards-per-target baseline.
    • 79.3% season snap share and 82.4% route rate clear the opportunity gate; routes rose 22, 33, 41.
    • DraftKings line is 40.5, over priced at -111; projection is 55.6% above the market threshold.
    • Three-game sample and an eight-game 2025 baseline make the efficiency estimate noisy.
  6. Over total 39.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model Over 52.5%; three-game scoring blend is 46.2 points, reduced to 41.1 for Tampa Bay's rookie-QB debut.
    • Tampa Bay averages 20.7 points and Green Bay allows 30.3; the matchup supports scoring despite the low total.
    • Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield out; the QB downgrade may be understated.
Show all 30 picks
  1. Matthew Golden anytime touchdownLong shot
    +225%Won

    Taken at +225 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 35.0% versus DK's 30.8% implied at +225.
    • Golden has a team-high 30 targets and 15 receptions through three games.
    • His 93.4% route rate and 83.4% snap share indicate a full-time receiving role.
    • Golden has converted only one of 30 targets into a touchdown so far.
  2. Christian Watson first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +750 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(1st TD) 14.0% versus DK's 11.8% implied at +750.
    • Watson has 29 targets and 4 touchdowns through three games.
    • 95% route rate and 82% snap share give him reliable early-possession access.
    • Tampa Bay's 69.8 coverage grade is the stronger defensive unit in this matchup.
  3. Evan Williams over 5.5 tackles + assists
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Novig

    NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13 of 20 regular/postseason games cleared 5.5; 2026 totals are 7, 10, and 10.
    • Full-time usage: 65, 74, and 71 defensive snaps in the first three 2026 games; PFF credits 210 snaps.
    • Tampa averaged 62.7 offensive plays across its first three regular-season games (54, 66, 68).
    • Only three current-season games; the 20-game blend includes prior-year usage and tackle-credit variance.
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup EPA proxy: TB offense (-0.007) versus GB defense allowed (+0.079) is +0.036 EPA/play; GB offense (-0.135) versus TB defense (-0.003) is -0.069.
    • TB's pace input is 29.16 versus Green Bay's 26.50, while points per drive is nearly even (1.672 vs 1.661), creating a modest first-half opportunity edge.
    • Square-root scaling matters: the 8.937 full-game margin SD implies roughly 6.32 for a half under sqrt(2), not 4.47 from linear halving; that preserves a modest TB mean better than a mechanically halved spread.
    • Only three 2026 games feed the current EPA, pace, and PPD inputs; the additive EPA conversion is not a calibrated half-win model.
  5. Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-half total under 18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace is 26.50 GB / 29.16 TB; PPD is 1.661 / 1.672. A 5.5-drive-per-side base implies about 18.3 first-half points.
    • Square-root scaling matters: half-game standard deviation scales with the square root of drives, not by mechanically halving full-game variance; the half distribution retains broader tails.
    • Internal check is coherent: 18.5 first half plus 18.5 second half, with an approximately 2.5-point late-scoring bump, reconciles to the 39.5 full-game total.
    • PPD and pace are early-season inputs through September 27, so the fitted 18.3 mean has meaningful estimation error.
  6. Christian Watson over 67.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80.3%-89.8% snaps and 35-46 routes in all three regular-season games.
    • Watson has 8, 11, and 10 targets for 147, 41, and 96 yards; 94.7-yard average.
    • PFF credits Watson with 2.51 yards per route run and 29 targets through three games.
    • Tampa Bay's 69.8 coverage grade and -0.0029 recent defensive EPA allowed are not a soft matchup.
  7. Green Bay Packers to win
    +64%Won

    Taken at −156 on FanDuel

    PickEmDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay officially starts rookie Jalon Daniels; Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb.
    • Green Bay's live depth chart lists Jordan Love as QB1, with no current injury designation.
    • Last-six net EPA differential favors Tampa Bay by 0.0735 EPA/play: -0.0623 versus Green Bay's -0.1358.
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 10.5 first-half pointsFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • my fitted Tampa Bay first-half total is about 9 points, below the 10.5 board line.
    • Tampa Bay’s season-to-date offense is -0.0071 EPA/play with 1.6721 points per drive; its three-game red-zone conversion is only 3-for-10.
    • Baker Mayfield is officially out; Tampa Bay will start rookie Jalon Daniels, creating a direct first-half scoring downgrade.
    • Green Bay’s defense has allowed +0.0786 EPA/play to date, a favorable matchup that can overcome the quarterback downgrade.
  9. Green Bay Packers winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA blend projects Green Bay +5.3 margin versus the market's Packers -2.5 spread.
    • Last-five EPA: Green Bay offense -0.0338, Tampa defense -0.0698 allowed; matchup differential favors Green Bay.
    • Key-number mass at 3 and 6 lifts the Packers 1-to-6 band to an estimated 28%.
    • The five-game window is noisy and includes limited 2026 regular-season data; model estimate is sensitive to the blend.
  10. Bucky Irving over 0.5 touchdownsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.9% projected snap share with a current workhorse role label.
    • TB's declared RB1 is Bucky Irving; Kenny Gainwell is the next back, not an unresolved starter-ahead gate.
    • Tampa Bay produced 10 red-zone drives through three games; Irving's workload concentrates the team's goal-line equity.
    • Gainwell still carries a 42.4% usage share, so this is not a pure every-down monopoly.
  11. Green Bay Packers first touchdown
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 41.7% GB red-zone touchdown conversion (5-for-12) versus 30.0% for Tampa Bay (3-for-10).
    • Tampa Bay's game-day QB status is a confirmed Baker Mayfield OUT; Jordan Love is GB's live QB1.
    • GB's QB/goal-line package has the cleaner usage baseline; script assumption favors GB sustaining early scoring pressure.
    • Opening-kick and first-possession variance are unconfirmed; scripted first drives can overwhelm the broader usage read.
  12. Jordan Love over 33.5 passing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 64%; DraftKings -112 implies 52.8%, an 11.2-point edge.
    • Love has 124 attempts in three regular-season games: 53, 29, and 42.
    • Packers have thrown on 68.5% of 181 current-season offensive plays.
    • The 29-attempt game shows a low-tail outcome if Green Bay controls the game.
  13. Game total under 40
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 40 wins at 39 or fewer, pushes at exactly 40, and loses at 41 or more.
  14. Green Bay Packers −3
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Packers -3 pushes on a three-point Packers win; Packers -3.5 loses there.
    • The leg loses on every non-push Packers failure to cover; only a Packers win by exactly 3 returns stake.
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-half spread +2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; PROJECTION with square-root drive scaling.
    • Matchup EPA: TB offense-vs-GB defense −0.0857 versus GB offense-vs-TB defense −0.1316 per play.
    • To-date points per drive are nearly level: TB 1.6721, GB 1.6611; the fit centers the half near even.
    • The game is live at 0-0, Q1 1:17; field position, turnovers, or an early score can dominate a short half.
  16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
    0%Push

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair line: Tampa Bay -0.5; +3.0 creates a 3.5-point discrepancy.
    • Estimated cover probability is approximately 55%, with roughly 2, 3% push probability at the key number.
    • Tampa Bay's 2026 defense allows -0.0029 EPA/play versus Green Bay's +0.0786.
    • Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield out; his four-dropback sample includes one interception.
  17. Game total under 39.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • combined pace is 55.67 plays (GB 26.50, TB 29.16), based on three played feature rows per team.
    • Game-day personnel supports the under: Baker Mayfield is Out; Jordan Love is the Packers' active usage leader.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa's replacement quarterback produces efficient drives or short fields push the game to 40+.
  18. Matthew Golden over 57.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 253 receiving yards and 30 targets through three games: 84.3 yards and 10 targets per game.
    • Snap share rose from 82.4% to 87.0%; the live usage board still lists him as Green Bay's WR1.
    • Tampa Bay allowed 357 WR yards on 45 targets over its last three games: 119 yards and 15 targets per game.
    • Christian Watson and Jayden Reed remain competing high-snap receivers, so target concentration can swing.
  19. Total Points under 43.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s main total is 39.5, with under -111, supporting a low-total direction.
    • Green Bay’s current offense is -0.1345 EPA/play; Tampa Bay’s recent offense is -0.1329 EPA/play across five games.
    • Tampa Bay’s 2026 recent form is 1.343 points/drive, while its defense grades 68.4 overall and 69.8 in coverage.
    • Most likely loss: a rookie-quarterback scramble or short-field turnover creates enough scoring to reach 44.
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 18.5 team points
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 17.1 Tampa points, producing 59% under probability versus 53.1% implied at -113.
    • Jalon Daniels is confirmed for his first NFL start; Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb.
    • Tampa's recent five-game offense averages only 1.343 points per drive and -0.1329 EPA per play.
    • Green Bay has allowed 91 points in three current-season games, a 30.3-point average.
  21. Jordan Love 1+ passing touchdownsFavorite
    +18%Won

    Taken at 85¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jordan Love is live and verified as Green Bay's QB1; 6 passing TDs through 3 games is a sanity check.
    • Green Bay has 92 yards on 16 first-quarter plays and reached the Tampa Bay 3 before the quarter ended.
    • Packers' pregame PROE is +23.2%, supporting sustained passing involvement despite a balanced opening quarter.
    • The game is still 0-0; Green Bay's current team row shows 0 red-zone attempts despite the drive nearing the goal line.
  22. Packers-Buccaneers game under 38.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 55% under probability and a 40.0-point fair total.
    • Current-season points per drive: Green Bay 1.661, Tampa Bay 1.672.
    • Baker Mayfield is officially inactive; Tampa's quarterback change lowers its scoring distribution.
    • Green Bay has allowed 30.3 points per game through three contests, creating short-field risk.
  23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread +3.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay reached the Green Bay 32 before an interception; the home offense has shown a scoring path despite trailing 6-0.
    • Green Bay's current possession reached the Tampa Bay 3 but stalled on fourth down and an incomplete second-down pass, supporting a tighter game than the margin suggests.
    • The existing close-game read is directionally consistent with taking the live home cushion rather than adding another total position.
    • Most likely loss: Green Bay finishes its current red-zone pressure, extends the lead, and wins by four or more.
  24. Game total over 39
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw three-game offense/defense blend projects Green Bay 22.5 plus Tampa Bay 25.5: 48.0 points, nine above 39.
    • Green Bay has allowed 30.3 points per game; Tampa Bay has allowed 26.3, creating multiple scoring routes.
    • ProphetX team totals reinforce a low-threshold game: Green Bay over 17.5 is 71.83¢ and Tampa Bay over 17.5 is 52.15¢.
    • Most likely loss: rookie starter Jalon Daniels struggles, Tampa Bay stalls, and the game stays below 39.

Questions

Who won Packers vs. Buccaneers?

The Packers won 17–14 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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