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Titans vs. RavensFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalM&T Bank Stadium
Titans0–3
18–24Final
Ravens2–1
Score by period
Team1234T
TEN703818
BAL7170024

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tennessee Titans spread +6.5 33¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Pinnacle Ravens -11.5, -105/-105; devigged home-cover probability 50.0%.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-19 on this game · +2% return

  1. Baltimore Ravens spread −11.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, ProphetX NFL Ladder +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Baltimore also has the better defensive EPA mark (-0.0162 vs. -0.0082) and points per drive (2.704 vs. 1.307); both teams have seven rest days.
    • Zay Flowers and Ronnie Stanley are currently questionable, while Trey Hendrickson is out; late availability can reduce Baltimore's margin.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
    • Pinnacle wake main is Ravens -11.5 -105 / Titans +11.5 -105; devigged Ravens probability is 50.0%.
    • Lamar Jackson and Cam Ward are latest QB1s at 6:04 AM; Ravens lead current form inputs in EPA, success, explosiveness and points/drive. Pinnacle main -11.5 is the CLV wake number.
    • Partial coverage: both teams have only three 2026 regular-season games, below the four-game Full threshold.
    Pigskin Pete
    • +0.2176 current offensive EPA/play gap favors Baltimore.
    • Baltimore leads recent six-game EPA/play, success rate, explosive rate, and points/drive.
    • -11.5 requires a decisive win; a late Titans score creates backdoor-cover risk.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score BAL +0.513 vs TEN -0.329; EPA edge +0.841.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.421: BAL +0.207 vs TEN -0.214.
    • Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
  2. Baltimore Ravens −11.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSunday Board Pairs, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game to-date: Baltimore offense is +0.1005 EPA/play versus Tennessee defense at -0.0082; Tennessee offense is -0.1171 versus Baltimore defense at -0.0162.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Baltimore 82.8 overall, 78.2 offense and 73.1 defense versus Tennessee at 60.8, 60.2 and 62.7.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore wins by 1-11, leaving the Titans inside +11.5 despite the Ravens winning.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model true probability 60.0% versus 52.4% break-even at -110: +7.6 percentage points.
    • Baltimore's pregame EPA profile leads Tennessee by 0.218 points per play on offense and by 0.066 in success rate.
    • The spread has held at 11.5 with neutral movement, so no sharp line-move confirmation exists.
    Number Earned
    • Modeled 56% cover probability versus 52.4% break-even at -110; fair spread Ravens -13.5.
    • Baltimore leads current EPA/play by 0.218: +0.1005 offense versus Tennessee -0.1171.
    • Three-game 2026 samples are thin, and early-season EPA can move sharply.
  3. Total Points under 42.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Three-game 2026 sample: Tennessee offense -0.1171 EPA/play versus Baltimore defense -0.0162 allowed.
    • Baltimore offense is +0.1005 EPA/play against Tennessee defense at -0.0082; the matchup favors a Ravens lead without requiring a high Titans score.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore creates short fields or explosive scores and carries the game into the mid-to-high 40s.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • analyst fair is 55%; Tennessee's -0.1171 offensive EPA/play and both defenses near -0.01 EPA/play support a lower-scoring script.
    • Baltimore operates at 33.37 seconds/play, while Tennessee's +0.1215 PROE raises pass-heavy incompletion risk despite its faster 27.45-second pace.
    • Baltimore's +0.1005 offensive EPA/play can turn efficient drives into touchdowns and erase the under edge.
  4. Tennessee Titans to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Two of three measures agree: thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total; book_levels are tied 3-3, so depth, not level count, is the corroborator.
    • Directional check: backing Tennessee Titans, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is +580 (14.71¢).
    • Book_levels do not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
    Long Way Home
    • captured sharp pricing does not corroborate the angle; this is a venue-order-flow thesis only.
    • Live state was 7-7 with seven seconds left in Q1, reducing the basis for an 82.7% Baltimore win assumption; the contract is now re-read at 17.39¢.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore's pregame advantage reasserts itself and the Ravens pull away after the tied opening quarter.
  5. Tennessee Titans spread +112 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • FPI projects Baltimore by 10.46 points; +11 is 0.54 points of cushion versus that estimate.
    • NFL margin density: exact 3-point margins occur 413/2,808 games (14.7%), 7-point margins 239 (8.5%), and 10-point margins 131 (4.7%); +11 captures those key clusters.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore wins by 12 or more; the Ravens have +0.1005 offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee at -0.1171.
    Long Way Home
    • Titans' three regular-season losses were by 13, 9, and 5; +11 covers two of those three observed margins and gives one-score protection.
    • Baltimore's three regular-season margins were +18, -7, and +3; its latest two wins were decided by 3 and 18, not a stable 11-point baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore's superior offense turns Tennessee's weak recent efficiency into an early multi-score lead and wins by 12 or more.
  6. Tennessee Titans spread +6.5Long shot
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Ravens -11.5, -105/-105; devigged home-cover probability 50.0%.
    • Ravens efficiency leads: +0.1005 versus Titans -0.1171 offensive EPA/play through three games.
Show all 30 picks
  1. Derrick Henry first touchdownLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at +270 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 30%; fair odds about +233 versus DraftKings +270.
    • Henry has 66 carries, 301 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs through three games.
    • Baltimore rushes on 68.2% of first downs; Henry is the 58.4%-snap, early-down back.
    • Three-game touchdown sample is small and invites regression.
  2. Baltimore Ravens first-half winnerFavorite
    +32%Won

    Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live BAL offense is +0.677 EPA/play in the game versus TEN at -0.697; pregame to-date gap was +0.1005 versus -0.1171.
    • To-date points per drive favor Baltimore 2.704 to 1.307, supporting a positive first-half scoring differential despite the 7-7 start.
    • The game is tied 7-7 with only 5:56 elapsed in Q1; one explosive play or turnover can reverse the half script.
  3. Tennessee Titans first-half spread +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted first-half margin is roughly Ravens by 5.5-6 points, leaving +7.5 above the central projection; the board's 54% price is modestly below the fitted 59% cover estimate.
    • Full-game margin SD is 14.14 points; square-root scaling gives roughly 10.0 points for a two-half margin SD, not a mechanically halved 7.07, widening the underdog's half-cover tail.
    • 2026 efficiency inputs cover just three games and do not fully adjust for turnovers, red-zone variance, or late lineup news.
  4. Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens first-half total under 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: INTERNAL COHERENCE plus PROJECTION.
    • Baltimore's 2.704 points per drive and Tennessee's 1.307, over only three 2026 games, produce a restrained first-half scoring fit.
    • The full-game 42.5 anchor and listed 2H 20.5 imply a 1H number below 21.5; late scoring normally makes a 21.5/20.5 split especially suspect.
    • Three-game PPD/EPA samples are highly unstable and may overstate Baltimore-Tennessee scoring separation.
  5. Rashod Bateman under 2.5 receptions
    +56%Won

    Taken at −180 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline catch rate was 50.0%; 13 current targets imply 6.5 expected receptions over three games.
    • Snap share is elite and broadly stable at 77.9% → 93.1% → 87.5% (86.2% average).
    • Zay Flowers is officially questionable; a limitation or late absence could redirect targets to Bateman.
  6. Gunnar Helm over 18.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: 6.49 yards per target; 11 targets imply 71.4 expected yards over three games.
    • Snap share held 76.0% → 86.8% → 81.7%; 81.5% average and 24/19/23 routes show stable opportunity.
    • Projection is 23.8 yards per game versus the 18.5-yard line, a 28.6% market gap; FanDuel -113 is live.
    • Three-game sample is small, and a single explosive catch can dominate this low line.
  7. Tennessee Titans under 17.5 team pointsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE (venue self-reference): Tennessee's -0.1171 offensive EPA/play meets Baltimore's -0.0162 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • The 17.5 threshold is about two points above the 15.5 Titans number implied by the 42.5 game total and Baltimore -11.5 spread, not a simple spread split.
    • Fresh weather temperature, wind gust, and precipitation fields were null; M&T Bank Stadium is marked outdoor, leaving wind uncertainty.
  8. Tennessee Titans under 48.5 total
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 2:25 Q1, score is 7-7; Baltimore's latest drive went 5 plays for 10 yards and ended in a punt.
    • Tennessee is at -0.060 live offensive EPA/play with a 33.3% pass rate; its pregame last-10 offense was -0.052 EPA/play.
    • The main under 48.5 at -120 is materially better than DraftKings alternate under 50.5 at -155 after accounting for the two-point cushion.
    • Fourteen points have already scored in the opening quarter, and another early touchdown would sharply damage the under.
  9. Derrick Henry first touchdown scorerLong shot
    +275%Won

    Taken at +275 on DraftKings

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baltimore is +0.1005 EPA/play with 2.704 points per drive; Tennessee allows -0.0082 defensive EPA/play.
    • Ravens have converted 8 of 12 red-zone trips into touchdowns through three games.
    • Henry has 66 carries, 301 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns; he ranks RB1 with 58.4% of snaps.
    • First-touchdown outcomes are highly volatile; Lamar Jackson and Baltimore pass-catchers have multiple scoring paths.
  10. Rashod Bateman over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +134 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 58% versus FanDuel +134 implied 42.7%: +15.3 percentage points.
    • Bateman has 13 targets and 9 catches through three regular-season games.
    • His current 90.2% route rate and 85.8% snap share support stable opportunity.
    • Bateman opened the season with zero catches on one target; the sample is only three games.
  11. Baltimore Ravens first score
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Ravens lead Tennessee 0.1005 to -0.1171 in current offensive EPA/play.
    • Baltimore has converted 8 of 12 red-zone trips; Tennessee opponents have converted 5 of 9.
    • Baltimore is an approximately 11-point home favorite, supporting the script assumption of early possession and sustained scoring pressure.
    • Opening-kick winner and scripted first-drive tendencies are unconfirmed; first score includes field goals, not just touchdowns.
  12. Derrick Henry 1+ touchdownFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.4% snap share and an early-down-hammer role make Henry Baltimore's clearest goal-line proxy.
    • Henry has 66 carries and 6 rushing touchdowns through three games; his weekly carry counts are 24, 16, and 26.
    • Baltimore has produced 12 red-zone trips and 8 conversions; Tennessee's defense has allowed 5 scores on 9 opponent red-zone trips.
    • Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Justice Hill can absorb red-zone touchdowns; Henry's goal-line role is derived from proxies, not a direct red-zone-touch field.
  13. Baltimore Ravens team total over 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model true probability 60.0% versus 50.0% break-even at +100: +10.0 percentage points.
    • Baltimore averages 30.7 points through three games; it scored 34 and 41 in two of three.
    • Ravens lead the matchup in offensive EPA/play, 0.1005 to Tennessee's -0.1171, and points per drive, 2.704 to 1.307.
    • Baltimore scored only 17 in Week 2; red-zone variance can strand an otherwise strong offense below 28.
  14. Game total under 42
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 42 pushes and refunds at exactly 42; under 42.5 loses at 42.
    • ProphetX quotes Under 42 at 49.02¢ (+104) versus Under 42.5 at 50.74¢ (-103); the push option is not priced higher.
    • Under 42 loses at 43 or more; a late touchdown makes the whole-number option irrelevant.
  15. Baltimore Ravens −14
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.074%: exact 14-point margins occurred in 140 of 2,759 NFL regular/post games (2016, 25).
    • ProphetX quotes Baltimore -14 at 42.37c (+136) versus -14.5 at 39.37c (+154), only a 3.00c gap.
    • The 14-point frequency is league-wide and not team- or matchup-specific; direction and current scoring environment may differ.
  16. Game total under 30.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live distribution centered near 47.5 with rough 14.5-point SD gives approximately 12% for Under 30.5.
    • Point-in-time inputs: Baltimore 33.37 sec/play and 2.704 points/drive; Tennessee 27.45 sec/play and 1.307 points/drive.
    • The game is 14-14 late in Q1; Under 30.5 needs no more than 16 additional points, but the low Tennessee scoring baseline supports the extreme tail.
    • 30.5 is roughly 17 points below the 47.5 live center; central efficiency inputs are least reliable here.
  17. First-half total over 28.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Baltimore 7 days, Tennessee 7; the zero-day gap removes fatigue but leaves the script-efficiency read clean.
    • Pace/PPD: BAL pace 33.37 versus TEN 27.45 seconds/play; PPD is 2.704 versus 1.3074.
    • The 30.05 projection depends on four remaining possessions per team; a slower game produces a materially lower total.
  18. Baltimore Ravens first-half spread over 6.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PPD gap is 2.704 to 1.3074, with pace 33.37 to 27.45; the scripted-possession profile favors Baltimore.
    • QB gate passed, current depth chart has Lamar Jackson and Cam Ward at QB1; both roster-active, with no unresolved game-day QB Q/D designation. Venue self-markets are directionally coherent: BAL 1H winner is 74c and BAL over 6.5 is 56c.
    • Rest is neutral: both teams have 7 days, removing the brief's strongest first-half lever.
  19. Baltimore Ravens spread −11
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ravens lead current-season offensive EPA/play 0.1005 to Tennessee’s -0.1171, a +0.2176 gap.
    • Baltimore’s defense is slightly better by EPA allowed: -0.0162 versus Tennessee’s -0.0082.
    • Official Ravens preview lists Lamar Jackson and Cam Ward as the starters; Lamar is full participation with no game status.
    • Likeliest loss path: Tennessee stays within 11 through a low-turnover Cam Ward performance and a one-score finish.
  20. Wan'Dale Robinson under 37.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF REGPO 2026, 3 games: depth-weighted aDOT about 6.3, with 15 short targets and one deep target.
    • NGS REG 2026, 2 games: 4.76 intended air yards; separation fell from 3.37 to 2.08 and averages 2.73 versus a 3.44 own-2025 baseline.
    • 1.28 YPRR despite a 95.3% route rate; he finished 38, 9, and 57 yards in three games.
    • Partial coverage: only three current-season box/PFF games and two current-season NGS rows.
  21. Elic Ayomanor over 19.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80.0% Week 3 snap share, up from 52.0% and 52.8%; route snaps rose to 29.
    • 30.3 receiving yards per game over the last three versus a 19.5-yard line.
    • Ayomanor is an active participant on the current board with no game-day injury designation listed.
    • Baltimore has allowed -0.0162 defensive EPA per play over its last three and carries a 73.1 PFF defense grade.
  22. Jeffery Simmons over 0.25 sacks
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +118 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 58% for at least one sack versus DraftKings +118 implied 45.9%: +12.1 percentage points.
    • Simmons has 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hits through three regular-season games.
    • He recorded a sack in each of his last two games and is listed active for this matchup.
    • Three games is a thin sack sample, and sack outcomes are highly volatile.
  23. Derrick Henry over 21.5 rushing attempts
    +99%Won

    Taken at −101 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Henry averages 22.0 carries across three regular-season games: 24, 16, and 26.
    • Baltimore's current rushing grade is 82.6, and Henry owns 66 carries with 301 yards.
    • Rain forecast and a projected Baltimore lead both favor a sustained early-down rushing plan.
    • The three-game carry sample includes one 16-carry outlier, so workload variance remains material.
  24. Game total under 42.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baltimore's offense leads Tennessee by 0.217 EPA/play, but both defenses are negative EPA allowed, favoring Ravens control more than a shootout.
    • Tennessee's 1.3074 points per drive trails Baltimore's 2.7040; Pinnacle's same 42.5 under at -111 independently backs the direction.
    • Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE; the ProphetX offer is the exact live contract, not a theoretical price.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore's explosive offense creates short fields or Tennessee contributes a defensive/special-teams score, pushing the game above 42.5.

Questions

Who won Titans vs. Ravens?

The Ravens won 24–18 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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