Jaguars vs. BengalsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPaycor Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 3 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| CIN | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder total 50.5 46¢
Why Key Number likes it: Slow pace: Cincinnati 31.43 and Jacksonville 33.46 seconds per play versus 30.48 league average; Jacksonville defense EPA allowed is -0.17.
Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 112 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 25-15 on this game · +34% return
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread +2.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsSunday Board Pairs, NFL Spread Detective +3Why 5 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs- Through 3 games, Jacksonville's defense allows -0.17 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's +0.07; the 0.23 EPA/play defensive gap is the core mismatch.
- Jacksonville's offense is +0.13 EPA/play against Cincinnati's +0.07 defensive allowance; PFF cards are nearly even offensively (78.2 JAX, 78.7 CIN).
- Most likely loss: Cincinnati wins a close home game by 3 or more despite Jacksonville's defensive edge.
NFL Spread Detective- Strategy score JAX +0.55 vs CIN +0.03; EPA edge +0.52.
- Primary EPA edge +0.44: JAX +0.52 vs CIN +0.07.
- Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
ProphetX Pairs- Jacksonville owns the stronger current defensive EPA profile: -0.17 versus Cincinnati's +0.07 allowed metric.
- Jacksonville leads success rate .5482 to .4975 and has the faster pass-rate-over-expectation profile (.0460 versus .1511 indicates Cincinnati's more aggressive baseline).
- Likeliest loss path: Cincinnati's home offense converts its .1447 EPA/play and .134 explosive rate into an early lead that forces Jacksonville out of its balanced script.
Bills Belichicks- Coach career win rate: Liam Coen 15-5 (.750) versus Zac Taylor 54-64-1 (.454), a 29.6-point differential.
- Jacksonville has scored 82 and allowed 36 through three games; Cincinnati has scored 80 and allowed 63.
- This is only a +2.5 underdog, below the brief's +3.5 high-conviction threshold; field-goal variance dominates.
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on BetMGM
4 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Resting Money +2Why 4 models like it
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner- Jacksonville's recent defense allowed -0.14 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.08.
- Jaguars lead PFF overall grade 76.9 to 71.7, including defense 63.0 to 52.0.
- Cincinnati's offense has the better recent EPA/play, +0.12 versus Jacksonville's +0.04.
Resting Money- Venue self-reference is not an independent validation; no sharp reference is used.
Quantitative +EV Analyst- 2026 EPA through Week 3: Jacksonville net +0.29 versus Cincinnati +0.08 per play.
- Pinnacle moved Cincinnati from -2.5 -122 to -113; underdog price improved without crossing 3 points.
- Last-10 net EPA slightly favors Cincinnati, .201 to .182; situational efficiency is not aligned.
Number Earned- Model estimates Jacksonville covers 55%; fair price approximately -122 versus DraftKings -102.
- Jacksonville's season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is -0.17/play versus Cincinnati's +0.07.
- Cincinnati owns the home field and the better season-to-date offense EPA, .1447/play to Jacksonville's .1265.
- Jacksonville Jaguars to win+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, Resting Money +1Why 3 models like it
Drift- JAX defense -0.17 EPA/play vs CIN +0.07; JAX success rate .5482 vs .4975.
- JAX points/drive 2.91 vs CIN 2.60; both quarterbacks confirmed expected starters: Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow.
- Most likely loss: Burrow's home passing attack exploits Jacksonville's secondary and Cincinnati's .1447 offensive EPA/play wins the matchup.
Resting Money- Venue self-reference is not an independent validation; no sharp reference is used.
Long Way Home- Jacksonville's defensive EPA allowed is -0.17, versus Cincinnati's +0.07; that process gap supports a tighter game than the favorite price implies.
- Most likely loss: Cincinnati's home offense converts its efficiency edge into an early lead and Jacksonville cannot recover.
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread +1.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSunday Ledger, House RulesWhy 2 models like it
Sunday Ledger- This is the single best qualifying full-game spread rung after applying the 3/7/10/6/4/14 key-number mass.
- Only three current-season games per team makes this PARTIAL, not FULL; early-season form is volatile.
House Rules- Jaguars +1.5 wins a tie and a Bengals one-point win; Jaguars +1 pushes on Bengals by exactly one.
- ProphetX quotes Jaguars +1.5 at +118 versus Jaguars +1 at +122, a four-American-point gap for the extra win bucket.
- Tee Higgins under 63.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 PFF baseline 1.62 YPRR × 98 current routes projects 158.8 yards; actual is 244, 53.7% above.
- Snap share rose 71.9% → 71.7% → 93.0%; routes were 31, 29, 39 over the last three.
- 2026 YPRR is 2.49 versus 1.62 last season, while actual games produced 59, 95, and 90 yards.
- Higgins cleared 63.5 yards in two of three games, including 10 targets in Week 2.
- Second quarter ends level−100%Lost
Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US
Level TermsDown 55% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- JAX +0.5 at 0.54 minus JAX -0.5 at 0.39 implies a 0.15 draw probability.
- The direct second-quarter draw is quoted at 0.12, a 0.03 structural gap.
- All five second-quarter spread rungs are monotone; both sides of all required contracts are quoted and non-placeholder.
- A three-point gap can be consumed by quote spread, fees, or rounding rather than representable edge.
Show all 30 picks
- Under total 50.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Slow pace: Cincinnati 31.43 and Jacksonville 33.46 seconds per play versus 30.48 league average; Jacksonville defense EPA allowed is -0.17.
- Most likely loss: both offenses convert their strong early-season production into an efficient 51-plus-point game.
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread over 4.5+257%Won
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days - Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +105 on DraftKings
TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 52.0% anytime-TD probability; fair price -108 versus DraftKings +105.
- 43 carries and 2 rushing touchdowns through three games; PFF labels him an early-down hammer.
- Tuten owns Jacksonville's RB1 snap share at 49.2% and 0.51 run-snap rate.
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. has 20 carries and a 27.4% season snap share, creating a real committee split.
- Ja'Marr Chase first touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +650 on DraftKings
TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 17.0% first-TD probability; fair price +488 versus DraftKings +650.
- 25 targets and 3 receiving touchdowns through three games; 93.9% offensive snap share.
- Cincinnati averages 3.38 points per drive; Jacksonville's current defensive EPA allowed is +0.07/play.
- First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance; short-yardage rushers can win the opening-score path.
- Game total over 24.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CIN averages 10.81 estimated drives/game at 2.60 points/drive; JAX averages 9.33 at 2.91.
- Half projection is approximately 27.1 points from fresh pace, drive, and points-per-drive inputs.
- Three current-season games per team make pace, estimated drives, and points-per-drive noisy.
- Tee Higgins over 62.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 78.5% season snap share; he is Cincinnati's WR2 with 99 routes through three games.
- Recent receiving yards: 59, 95, 90; the 81.3-yard average is 30% above the 62.5 line.
- Snap share rose from 71.9% and 71.7% to 93.0% last week; route snaps rose to 39.
- Jacksonville's recent defensive EPA allowed was -0.17 per play, a difficult overall matchup.
- Cincinnati Bengals spread −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days - Trevor Lawrence under 258.5 passing yards+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pass matchup: JAX pass-block grade 58.8 versus CIN pass-rush grade 64.5; Cincinnati has 26 pressures and four sacks.
- Mechanism confirmed: Lawrence has four sacks on 81 attempts; Cincinnati’s 10.8% pass-rush win rate supports pressure suppression.
- Hill’s confirmed absence weakens Cincinnati’s season-long pass-rush grade and could reduce pressure versus the model.
- Game first-quarter total over 9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days - Game total over 52−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- JAX 33.46 plus CIN 31.43 pace_to_date implies 64.89 combined plays, with three current-season feature rows each.
- the teams have scored 82 and 80 points through three games, a combined 54.0 per-game average against a 52 total.
- Most likely loss: pressure-driven stalled drives; Cincinnati has 61 defensive pressures and Jacksonville's OL pass-block grade is 58.8.
- Jaguars–Bengals first-half total over 24.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 32.3 combined average first-half points across each team's last three games.
- Jaguars scored on 8 of 16 first-half drives; Bengals scored on 7 of 15.
- Current 24.5 is 3.5 points below the 28.0 projected first-half total.
- Three-game first-half sample is small and includes extreme scoring outcomes.
- Total Points over 52−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Three-game sample: Cincinnati offense +0.14 EPA/play; Jacksonville defense allows -0.17.
- Jacksonville offense +0.13 EPA/play; Cincinnati defense allows +0.07, supporting scoring from both sides.
- Sportsbook reference is 51.5; ProphetX's 52 is the placement venue, not a devig claim.
- Most likely loss: a stalled offense leaves 51 or fewer points; 52 is a push.
- Cincinnati Bengals under 26.5 team points+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CIN offense averages 2.60 points per drive; JAX has allowed 1.31 opponent PPD across three games.
- JAX defense is -0.17 EPA/play to date, while Cincinnati's +0.14 offense faces the matchup's strongest unit.
- Blending CIN offensive PPD with JAX defensive PPD over roughly 10 drives projects about 19.6 points, well below 26.5.
- Only three regular-season games inform the efficiency and PPD inputs; the matchup estimate could be overfit.
- Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards over 86.5−100%Lost
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-draw CDF: 60% for 87+ yards versus 52.6% implied at -111.
- Chase has 22 targets, 12 receptions, and 110 yards in the three current-season games after removing an anomalous duplicate row.
- Simulated game total 51.0 versus the 51.5 market total; environment gate passes by 0.5 points.
- The three-game route sample is enough for the normal play but not the brief's high-conviction threshold.
- Joe Burrow under 270.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live: Burrow has 37 yards on 5 attempts with 1:28 left in Q1; Cincinnati has -0.18 EPA/play on 6 plays.
- Jacksonville’s prior three-game defensive EPA allowed averaged -0.17/play.
- Burrow’s first three 2026 passing totals were 282, 207, and 254 yards; 270.5 remains above the 247.7-yard mean.
- Five attempts are a thin sample; Burrow is currently averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.
- Chase Brown 1+ touchdowns+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bengals have produced 4 touchdowns on 8 red-zone attempts through three games.
- Jacksonville opponents have converted only 2 of 12 red-zone attempts (16.7%).
- Brown owns a 70.7% snap share and workhorse label, but the matchup suppresses the conversion environment; usage estimate is about 42% for 1+ TD.
- Brown is the declared RB1 with no player ahead of him, so one goal-line carry can immediately lose this position.
- Over 51.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; thin-at-quote and deep-behind-it agree, with substantial raw stake on the thin side.
- Venue self-reference is not an independent validation; no sharp reference is used.
- First-half total under 28.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7 rest days each; no rest edge, so the total read rests on pace, points per drive, and script efficiency.
- PPD inputs are 2.91 JAX and 2.60 CIN; the pace inputs are 33.46 and 31.43, producing a roughly 25.0-point first-half projection rather than a flat half of the game total.
- applying that 25.0 projection and first-half scoring dispersion to the exact 28.5 rung gives roughly 68% under.
- Equal 7-day rest supplies no front-loaded fatigue edge; Cincinnati's 15.1% PROE can create early explosives.
- Jacksonville Jaguars first-half winner+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7 rest days each; no rest-day gap, so the signal is efficiency rather than freshness.
- JAX defensive EPA-to-date is -0.17 versus CIN +0.07; JAX success rate leads 54.8% to 49.8%.
- JAX points per drive leads 2.91 to 2.60, with a faster 33.46 versus 31.43 pace input and a smaller PROE commitment.
- Equal 7-day rest removes the brief's strongest lever; this is a small projection edge, not a rest mismatch.
- Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline +120+120%Won
Taken at +120 on DraftKings
NFL HunterV2Down 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair probability 52.5% versus 45.5% implied by the live +120 contract: roughly +7 percentage points.
- Jacksonville leads current-season EPA per play success profile: 0.13 offense EPA/play and 0.55 success versus Cincinnati's 0.14 and 0.50, with the Jaguars' defense at -0.17 EPA/play allowed.
- Jacksonville averages 2.91 points per drive versus Cincinnati's 2.60, while both teams are 2-1 and rested seven days.
- Cincinnati has home field and the stronger explosive-play rate, 0.13 to Jacksonville's 0.12.
- Cincinnati Bengals moneyline NO−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stephen A. Smith, in a First Take clip posted about one day before this wake: “Burrow Will Blow Leads & Take Penalties.”
- The contrarian outcome is Cincinnati avoiding the predicted collapse and winning at home.
- Polymarket US’s live Cincinnati NO-side cost was 57.75c, with the market actively quoted.
- The indexed title may summarize commentary rather than constitute an explicit Bengals-win prediction.
- Cincinnati Bengals first team touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cincinnati's pregame offensive EPA is 0.14 per play versus Jacksonville's 0.13, and Cincinnati is the market favorite.
- Cincinnati's opponents have converted 3 of 12 red-zone attempts (25.0%), while the Bengals have generated 8 own red-zone attempts.
- A 70.7% snap-share workhorse back concentrates Cincinnati's early goal-line equity; the team-level usage read points modestly toward Cincinnati first.
- First touchdown is highly sensitive to the opening kickoff, coin toss, and scripted first drive, none of which is confirmed here.
- Game total under 50+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Under 51.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects approximately 49-50 total points; fair under probability is 54%, about -117 fair price.
- Jacksonville's recent five-game defense allowed -0.16 EPA/play, while its offense averaged only 2.28 points/drive.
- The combined pace indicators are deliberate: Jacksonville 33.46 and Cincinnati 31.43 seconds per offensive play.
- Both teams are averaging roughly 27 points per game through three 2026 contests, so the baseline is not low.
Questions
Who won Jaguars vs. Bengals?
The Jaguars won 22-17 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.