Colts vs. CommandersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTottenham Hotspur Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 |
| WAS | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonJonathan Taylor over 89.5 rushing yards −113
Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: 4.91 prior-season yards per carry × 22.0 carries per game projects 108.0 yards.
NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 21-15 on this game · +15% return
- Tyler Warren over 5.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on FanDuel
3 modelsMister Price, Snap Share +1Why 3 models like it
Mister Price- Warren is Indianapolis' TE1 with a 92.1% season snap share and 1st position-room rank.
- His route snaps are 31, 28, 38 and targets are 5, 7, 10 across the three games.
- The three-game sample is early and the apparent reception trend can regress sharply.
Snap Share- Active and role confirmed: latest 10/1 depth chart lists Warren TE1; observed snap share/routes were W1 92.6%/31, W2 89.2%/28, W3 94.4%/38.
- Warren's targets/receptions rose 5/3, 7/6, 10/9; season usage is 92.1% snap share and TE1 by position-group rank.
- No clean historical Allen-absence sample exists; redistribution is treated as league average, capping this to Tier 3 conviction.
Early Down- Targets rose 5→7→10 and receptions 3→6→9 across Weeks 1-3.
- 90.8% snap share and 60 routes in the first two charted games show a high role.
- Tuesday injury information is incomplete; a practice absence or new committee-mate invalidates this lean.
- Jonathan Taylor over 89.5 rushing yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
2 modelsNFL Regression Radar, Second WindWhy 2 models like it
NFL Regression Radar- 4.91 prior-season yards per carry × 22.0 carries per game projects 108.0 yards.
- Taylor has 66 carries across his last three games: 19, 24, 23.
- Washington can force inefficient rushing with early-down boxes or negative game script.
Second Wind- Taylor produced 98 and 92 rushing yards in the first two games despite a 68-yard Week 3 result.
- Washington's defense carries a poor +0.156 defensive EPA/play to date, a matchup weakness.
- Efficiency has fallen from 5.2 to 3.8 to 3.0 yards per carry across the last three weeks.
- Indianapolis Colts to win+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, high-confidence main marketsWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Independent power probability 70.0%; current-season net EPA is slightly better for IND (-0.0811 vs WSH -0.0845) and IND allows 0.0633 defensive EPA/play vs WSH 0.1138.
- Personnel gate cleared at quarterback: Daniel Jones is Indianapolis' starter; Washington's Jayden Daniels is out and Marcus Mariota starts.
- Washington's current offense has the better raw EPA/play (+0.0293 vs IND -0.0178) and success rate (.481 vs .4466), so the matchup is not one-way.
high-confidence main markets- Daniel Jones is confirmed for Indianapolis; Marcus Mariota starts for Washington with Jayden Daniels ruled out.
- Colts lead current EPA/play (-0.012 vs -0.035), success rate (.473 vs .451), and points per drive (2.30 vs 2.10).
- London travel and neutral outdoor conditions add variance; no weather advantage is confirmed.
- Indianapolis Colts −4.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
2 modelsNFL Luck Regression, Quantitative +EV AnalystWhy 2 models like it
NFL Luck Regression- Washington Luck Score 0.804 vs Indianapolis -0.042; 0.846 difference clears the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary luck: Washington 0.428 vs Indianapolis -0.020; 0.448 difference clears the 0.20 trigger.
- Fumble recovery expectation assumes a 50% recovery rate; small opportunity counts make the +4.0 Washington raw value noisy.
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Current-season net EPA: Colts -0.0843 versus Washington -0.1907, a +0.1064 per-play edge.
- Colts lead current-season success rate 47.3% to 45.1% and defensive EPA allowed 0.072 to 0.156.
- Last-10 net EPA is slightly better for Washington, -0.1350 versus Indianapolis -0.1459.
- Game total over 47−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- this exact over 47 contract pushes when the game total is exactly 47; over 47.5 loses on 47.
- ProphetX prices over 47 at 50.25c versus over 47.5 at 48.08c: only a 2.17c step for the push protection.
- This desk is not projecting the scoring distribution; the over can still lose at 46 or fewer.
Long Way Home- Indianapolis averages 24.0 points and Washington 25.0 through three 2026 games.
- Both defenses allow over 30 points per game: 30.3 for Indianapolis and 30.7 for Washington.
- Most likely loss: stalled red-zone drives keep the game near 24-20 or lower.
- Indianapolis Colts spread −4.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs- through three games, Indianapolis leads Washington in offense EPA (-0.0122 vs -0.0347), success rate (.4731 vs .4506), and points per drive (2.30 vs 2.10).
- Indianapolis defense EPA is +0.0721 versus Washington's +0.1560; both teams have seven days' rest in a neutral London game.
- The market likely already absorbed Daniels' absence; ProphetX and the sharp reference are close, so the projection edge may be overstated.
Number Earned- Model: 55.5% cover probability, fair line about -125; DraftKings -118 implies 54.1%.
- Colts lead Washington in to-date offensive EPA/play (-0.0122 vs -0.0347) and success rate (.473 vs .451).
- The estimated edge is only about 1.4 probability points, so ordinary NFL variance dominates.
Show all 28 picks
- Washington Commanders to win−100%Lost
Taken at +190 on FanDuel
2 modelsBrewing NFL Ml, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Brewing NFL Ml- Marcus Mariota is confirmed to start; his 2026 PFF passing grade is 67.3 versus Daniel Jones at 61.2.
- Mariota pressure-to-sack rate is 8.7% versus Jones at 15.0%; average CPOE is approximately +3.2% versus +2.3%.
- Washington's trench card trails Indianapolis: OL/DL grades 57.4/57.1 versus 65.1/67.4.
Long Way Home- Pinnacle's live same-line Washington +100 converts to 50.0¢, a SHARP REFERENCE that is materially shorter than ProphetX.
- The home lead and superior early live process support a Washington fair chance above the matched ProphetX price.
- Most likely loss: Washington's opening lead is an outlier and Indianapolis's stronger underlying team profile takes control.
- Washington Commanders exact margin 7-14−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live main spread is Indianapolis -4.5 (-107), anchoring the home margin at -4.5.
- The bucket contains +7, +10, and +14, where touchdown/field-goal arithmetic creates lumpy mass generic smoothing can underweight.
- Indianapolis -4.5 makes this a counter-direction underdog tail; the 15.7% estimate is model-dependent.
- Washington Commanders first team to score a touchdown+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FTD qualified-set sum is 1.02; Washington yes is the structurally rich leg.
- Opening-drive touchdown rate: Washington 5/31 (16.1%) versus Indianapolis 7/18 (38.9%), 2023-26 regular season.
- With kickoff order unknown and a 50/50 possession prior, the drive-rate model puts Washington first-TD probability near 0.27; no-side estimate near 0.73.
- The opening-drive sample is only 49 drives across 49 games and is not opponent-adjusted.
- IND @ WAS first-half total under 23.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION, with secondary INTERNAL COHERENCE; tier RECOMMENDED.
- WSH 2.10 and IND 2.30 points per drive plus pace proxies produce roughly 22.3 first-half points.
- At 52c, the fitted under probability is approximately 55%, a four-point disagreement.
- Drive count is inferred from pace, not directly observed; early-season inputs span only five games.
- Laquon Treadwell over 27.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 78.9% snap share and 35 routes last week, up from 35.2% and 9 in Week 1.
- Washington allowed +0.156 EPA per play over its last three; its 42.6 coverage grade is a favorable matchup proxy.
- FanDuel's 27.5-yard line at -113 is attackable after Treadwell's clear role expansion.
- Treadwell's last-three receiving-yardage line is 0, 61, 20; the mean is only 27.0.
- Jonathan Taylor under 93.5 rushing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colts' current OL state is verified: the five primary linemen each have 100% of offensive snaps; no Colts OL injury is listed.
- Run matchup favors Indianapolis on grade (69.6 run block vs Washington's 62.1 run defense), but latest NGS mechanism was -39.3 rush yards over expected (-1.79 per attempt).
- Taylor has 258 yards on 66 carries (3.91 per carry), a workhorse 88.9% snap share, and a 22-carry-per-game role.
- The trench grade points toward efficiency: Washington's pass-rush side is also modest at 57.1, and its run-defense grade is only 62.1.
- Jonathan Taylor over 21.5 rushing attempts−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picksWhy it likes it
- Taylor is Indianapolis' RB1 and workhorse: 88.9% season snap share across three games.
- His carries are 19, 24, 23; median 23 and average 22.0 against a 21.5 line.
- Projection: 19-26 attempts, median 23; Washington's recent defense EPA allowed is 0.122 per play.
- Two of three games clear the line; the sample is only three regular-season games.
- Washington Commanders over 20.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Washington averages 25.0 points, 2.10 points per drive, and 11.33 drives through three games.
- Indianapolis has allowed 30.3 points per game; its +0.0721 defensive EPA allowed remains a favorable scoring matchup.
- Jayden Daniels is officially out and Marcus Mariota is expected to start; the backup-quarterback downgrade may erase the matchup edge.
- Indianapolis Colts spread −3.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NFL regular/postseason histogram records 413 absolute three-point margins; the -3/-3.5 interval appears light around key 3.
- DraftKings, FanDuel and Pinnacle all show the main market at Colts -4.5; -3.5 preserves key-number protection.
- Daniel Jones is Indianapolis's latest QB1; the current game report carries no Out/Doubtful designation for him.
- Most likely loss: Washington keeps this within three points or wins outright despite the quarterback change.
- Daniel Jones under 211.5 passing yards+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jones has 6 passing yards on 6 attempts with one sack and a lost fumble.
- Colts have -1.1497 EPA/play, 12.5% success, and 0% explosive rate through 8 offensive plays.
- 211.5 is the best live threshold: 15 yards higher than DK's 196.5 while priced five cents better.
- Eight Colts plays are a very small live sample; one explosive completion can erase the cushion.
- Jonathan Taylor first touchdown scorer+250%Won
Taken at +250 on FanDuel
NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Estimated first-TD probability 32%; fair price +212 versus FanDuel +250, which implies 28.6%.
- Colts lead the fallback efficiency read: -0.012 EPA/play, 47.3% success, 2.30 points/drive versus Washington's -0.035, 45.1%, 2.10.
- Washington allows +0.156 defensive EPA/play versus Indianapolis +0.072; the Colts also carry a 26.5-point team total.
- Colts and Washington each converted 6 of 9 red-zone trips, while Warren, Downs and other Colts players retain scoring paths.
- Jonathan Taylor over 0.5 touchdowns+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Taylor is the declared RB1/workhorse with an 88.9% snap share; the depth chart confirms no back ahead of him, and the official report has him full participation.
- Indianapolis has converted 6 of 9 red-zone possessions; Washington has allowed 9 conversions on 12 opponent red-zone possessions, derived from team-game rows.
- Taylor has four rushing touchdowns through three games, while Indianapolis averages 2.30 points per drive; the role and scoring-chance proxies align.
- Tyler Warren already has two receiving touchdowns and Daniel Jones can steal a short-yardage score.
- Marcus Mariota under 206.5 passing yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
+EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 60% estimated true probability versus 53.1% price break-even: +6.9 percentage points.
- Mariota's two 2026 starts produced 111 and 183 passing yards, both below 206.5; 147-yard average.
- Official Commanders source confirms Mariota starts with Jayden Daniels ruled out; the live board lists Mariota active.
- Only two starts create a thin quarterback sample; one efficient deep-passing game can clear 206.5.
- Total points under 48+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels corroborate: Under 3 versus Over 2. Backing Under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- ProphetX is the only reference; no independent sharp confirmation is used, so venue self-reference may be noise rather than predictive information.
- Washington Commanders spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Washington +3.5 wins if Indianapolis wins by exactly 3; Washington +3 pushes instead.
- NFL regular-season history 2016-25: exact 3-point margins occurred in 381 games, 14.448% of the sample.
- ProphetX charges 46.08¢ for Washington +3.5 versus 42.02¢ for Washington +3, a 4.06¢ upgrade for the added exact-3 win.
- The 14.448% figure is unconditional historical exact-margin mass; matchup-side and price-specific mass can differ.
- Indianapolis Colts first-half winner+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rest gap 0 days: Indianapolis 7, Washington 7; no rest bonus, so the call rests on efficiency.
- EPA gap: Indianapolis offense -0.0122 vs Washington -0.0347 and defense allowed +0.0721 vs +0.1560; the Colts profile is better on both sides.
- The sharp moneyline is tie-push while Kalshi's YES loses on a tied half; the 7.5% tie adjustment is venue-derived, not independent.
- Stefon Diggs first touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +1300 on DraftKings
TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scenario model: 9.0% first-TD probability, fair odds about +1011 versus +1300.
- Diggs has 22 targets and 3 receiving touchdowns through three 2026 games.
- His 85 routes and 57.6% season snap share provide established scoring access.
- McLaurin remains officially questionable; unexpected full participation would reduce Diggs' target concentration.
- Washington Commanders under 13.5 first-half points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Cross FootUp 114% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Venue self-reference only: +1.5/+2.5/+3.5 spread anchors fit Colts margin μ≈−1.5, σ≈8.0 points.
- Venue self-reference only: 43.5, 46.5 total anchors fit game total μ≈45.0, σ≈14.5 points; spread and total anchors agree.
- WAS first-half over ladder is non-monotonic: 10.5 is 66%, while 13.5 and 14.5 are both 80%; history shows activity through 6:52am.
- The 13.5 quote jumped from roughly 39, 40c over at 6:52am; this may be a thin repricing rather than a stable error.
- Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −102 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 catch rate was 83.3%; 7.33 targets per game imply 6.11 receptions.
- His recent target counts are 9, 6, and 7, providing stable opportunity rather than a disappearing role.
- Diggs is active and has an 88.2% season route rate.
- Marcus Mariota's quarterback change and Washington's distribution can reduce target quality.
- Washington Commanders winning margin 1 to 6−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season PIT matchup EPA implies Washington by roughly 3.7 points: opponent-adjusted EPA favors Washington by 0.0614 per play.
- Key-number weighting concentrates probability at 3 and 6; estimated Washington 1, 6 margin probability is about 31%.
- The 1, 6 band captures the projected Washington margin while avoiding the thinner 15+ tail.
- Last-five opponent-adjusted EPA instead leans Indianapolis by roughly 2.8 points, a material form conflict.
- Indianapolis Colts −12.5+257%Won
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two of three measures agree: Colts are thin at the quote and deep behind it; book levels are tied 3-3, not corroborating.
- Directional check: backing Indianapolis Colts -12.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Only two of three measures support the read; equal 3-versus-3 book levels reduce conviction.
- Indianapolis Colts–Washington Commanders total under 46.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Washington is at -0.0347 offensive EPA/play, .4506 success rate and 29.09 seconds/play; official team news confirms Mariota starts for ruled-out Daniels.
- Colts' current defensive EPA profile is stronger: .0721 allowed versus Washington's .1560; Washington's points per drive is 2.10.
- ProphetX offers under 46.5 at 50.0¢ with $32,537 offered at the matched contract; the line stayed 46.5 while the over price moved from 50.0¢ to 51.22¢.
- Three-game scoring averages are not low: Indianapolis averages 24.0 points and Washington 25.0.
Questions
Who won Colts vs. Commanders?
The Colts won 30–13 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.