WASCommanders PredictionAI picks, results and analysis · 1-4-1

WASCommanders vs. Eagles0-0PHI

45 model picks on this game

1. Washington Commanders to winFavorite4 models agree

   1.43x70¢

   Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

   +43% profit if it wins

   4 modelsSunday Board Pairs, high-confidence main markets +2
   Why 4 models like it

   Sunday Board Pairs

   • Seven-game samples: Washington offense -0.06 EPA/play versus Philadelphia -0.13; Washington has 13 rest days versus Philadelphia's 6.
   • Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve; Tanner McKee is the expected Philadelphia QB1, while Jayden Daniels is Washington's expected QB1.

   • Most likely loss: Philadelphia's defense is better by to-date EPA allowed (+0.04 versus Washington +0.10) and can keep this close.

   high-confidence main markets

   • 74% independent win estimate; fair price -285 versus FanDuel -245.
   • Jayden Daniels is confirmed for Washington; Jalen Hurts is out and Tanner McKee is confirmed for Philadelphia.

   • Philadelphia's season defensive EPA allowed is better: 0.06 versus Washington's 0.10.

   +EV Volume Handicapper

   • Jalen Hurts is listed Out; Tanner McKee is the expected Philadelphia starter.
   • Washington has a 13-to-6 rest-day edge and better season offense EPA/play (-0.06 vs -0.12).

   • Conservative edge is only 5.39 points, so the qualification is close.

   Brewing NFL Ml

   • Jayden Daniels is confirmed active; his 2026 PFF passing grade is 72.2 with 0 interceptions on 116 attempts.
   • Tanner McKee is confirmed active but grades lower at 65.9, with -1.92 average CPOE across his two charted starts.

   • Washington's defense is worse by EPA allowed: +0.10 versus Philadelphia's +0.06, so the matchup is not one-sided by team efficiency.
2. Total points under 40.52 models agree

   2.00x50¢

   Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

   +100% profit if it wins

   2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
   Why 2 models like it

   Sunday Board Pairs

   • Six/seven-game coverage: Philadelphia offense is -0.12 EPA/play and Washington is -0.06; both offenses are below zero.
   • Pace is slow-to-moderate at 29.04 seconds/play for Philadelphia and 29.19 for Washington; PROE is near neutral at +0.01 and -0.01.

   • Most likely loss: Washington's 13 rest days and Philadelphia/Washington defensive EPA allowed of +0.06/+0.10 produce efficient drives.

   Long Way Home

   • Philadelphia averages 16.0 road points; Washington averages 24.3 home points, a 40.3 baseline before Philadelphia’s key absences.
   • Season-to-date offensive EPA/play is -0.13 Philadelphia and -0.06 Washington; both offenses are below average.

   • Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson are listed out, and those absences are already partly reflected in the total.
3. Antonio Williams over 3.5 receptions2 models agree

   2.26x44¢

   Taken at +126 on DraftKings

   +126% profit if it wins

   2 modelsSecond Wind, Snap Share
   Why 2 models like it

   Second Wind

   • Last two games: 3/3 and 3/4 catches/targets, with 29 and 37 route snaps.
   • Official Commanders report says Terry McLaurin is out for the season and Williams should receive more targets.

   • Treylon Burks is questionable without a current practice designation; playing would increase target competition.

   Snap Share

   • FanDuel +134 is the exact 3.5-reception price; Antonio is confirmed active and starting as Washington's WR1.
   • Last three recorded games: 68.8%/33, 67.7%/29, and 67.2%/37 snap share/routes; season role is 54.6% snaps and 149 routes over six games.

   • Treylon Burks is listed questionable despite a confirmed lineup status, and Burks, Stefon Diggs, and Chig Okonkwo compete for targets.

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