FinalNorthwest Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| WAS | 7 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWashington Commanders first team to score points 2H 35¢
Why Draw First likes it: the three yes prices sum to 0.97 versus the exhaustive-set identity of 1.00.
Draw FirstUp 39% return this season · 37 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-25 on this game · −36% return
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 90.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
4 modelsSecond Wind, NFL Usage Adventure +2Why 4 models like it
Second Wind- 277 yards on 22 targets across Weeks 1-2: 138.5 receiving yards per game.
- He led Seattle with 11 targets in each game and caught 17 passes overall.
- Kupp could be fully cleared and reclaim routes before Sunday; JSN's final role is not locked.
NFL Usage Adventure- 122 and 155 receiving yards on 11 targets in each of his first two games.
- Washington's defense allowed positive EPA/play in both games; PFF coverage grade is 39.5.
- Snap share fell from 90.0% to 67.1%, and Seattle ran on 59.1% of plays last week.
Mister Price- Smith-Njigba drew 11 targets in each of the first two games: 8-122 and 9-155 receiving lines.
- The two-game receiving median is 138.5 yards versus a 90.5 line; projection is 95-150, median 121.
- Two games is a thin efficiency sample, and the 155-yard result creates meaningful regression risk.
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo- Model CDF: 61% over versus 53.1% implied at FanDuel -113.
- 22 targets, 17 receptions and 277 yards through two games; target share is 44.0%.
- Only a two-game route sample; shrinkage is material and limits conviction to medium.
- Seattle Seahawks −8.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
3 modelsNFL Spread Detective, NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model +1Why 3 models like it
NFL Spread Detective- EPA score: Seattle 1.24 vs Washington -0.34; edge +1.58 clears the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary EPA edge is +0.95, well above the 0.20 requirement.
- Seattle's rush offense component is -1.02 versus Washington's +0.99, a clear matchup weakness.
NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model- Model fair spread: Seattle -10.5, a 2.0-point gap versus the -8.5 consensus.
- 2026 pregame EPA: Seattle offense +0.08/defense -0.21 allowed; Washington offense -0.01/defense +0.18 allowed.
- The 2026 sample is only two regular-season games; the model regresses early EPA heavily toward 2025.
Number Earned- Estimated cover probability 57%; fair line approximately Seattle -8.5 -133.
- Seattle leads 2026 team EPA: +0.08 offense and -0.21 defensive EPA allowed per play.
- Only two 2026 games support the EPA sample; early-season estimates are noisy.
- Seattle Seahawks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 78¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, high-confidence main markets +1Why 3 models like it
Drift- Model 81.0% vs Pinnacle devigged 76.4%; gap +4.6 percentage points.
- Seattle leads the pregame feature snapshot in offense EPA/play (+0.08 vs Washington -0.01) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.21 vs +0.18).
- Seattle's model edge is built on only the first two weeks of 2026 data and may overstate early-season efficiency.
high-confidence main markets- Independent win estimate: 82%; fair price approximately -456 versus DraftKings -410.
- Seattle leads recent offense EPA/play 0.08 to Washington -0.01 and defense EPA/play -0.21 to Washington 0.18.
- Road moneyline is expensive; an 82% estimate leaves a modest price edge rather than a large cushion.
Long Way Home- The injury confirmation supports Seattle's existing efficiency edge: +0.08 offensive EPA/play and -0.21 defensive EPA/play through 9/20, versus Washington -0.01 and +0.18.
- Live board timestamp is 7:31 AM PDT, immediately before kickoff; this is a venue-specific price gap, not a payout-size argument.
- Daniels' absence may already be fully reflected in the broader market; ProphetX can simply be offering a different exchange price.
- Seattle Seahawks spread −8.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
3 models+EV Volume Handicapper, ProphetX Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
+EV Volume Handicapper- 58% model cover probability versus 51.2% break-even at FanDuel -105: +6.8 points.
- Seattle owns +0.08 offensive EPA/play and -0.21 defensive EPA allowed/play through September 20.
- Sam Darnold has only two 2026 pass attempts, so Seattle quarterback workload is less established than normal.
ProphetX Pairs- through two 2026 games, Seattle leads offensive EPA/play 0.08 to Washington -0.01 and defensive EPA/play -0.21 to Washington 0.18.
- Personnel confirmation favors Seattle: the official Seahawks report says Sam Darnold is ready; Washington's Jayden Daniels is ruled out and Marcus Mariota starts.
- Darnold's return after missing two games creates performance and timing uncertainty despite being cleared.
Long Way Home- Seattle's pregame EPA edge is +0.09 per play on offense (0.08 vs -0.01) and +0.39 on defense (-0.21 allowed vs +0.18).
- Seattle also leads Washington in success rate, 50.2% to 47.4%, and explosive rate, 11.1% to 10.8%.
- Seattle's model edge is based on only two regular-season games.
- Game total under 40.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
3 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Long Way Home +1Why 3 models like it
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Seattle's last-10 defense allowed -0.18 EPA/play; Washington's last-10 offense produced -0.13.
- Current-season matchup inputs: Seattle defense -0.21 EPA/play allowed versus Washington offense -0.01.
- Washington's current defense allowed +0.18 EPA/play, creating real risk of efficient Seattle scoring.
Long Way Home- Only 7 points are on the board at 3:25 of Q1; Washington's score followed a Seattle fumble at the SEA 21, a short-field distortion.
- Washington enters with -0.01 offensive EPA/play and 0.47 success rate; Seattle's defense is at -0.21 defensive EPA/play to date.
- Most likely loss: either offense converts repeated explosive plays after the early turnover, creating a second-half scoring cascade.
ProphetX Pairs- Washington's offense is -0.01 EPA/play through Week 2, while Seattle's defense is -0.21 EPA/play allowed.
- Washington can exceed its early offensive baseline with Marcus Mariota and home-field script.
- Washington Commanders first team to score points 2H+186%Won
Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US
Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the three yes prices sum to 0.97 versus the exhaustive-set identity of 1.00.
- 3 contracts screened, 0 excluded: both sides quoted; none at 0.04/0.97 remains outside the 0.02/0.98 placeholder band.
- Washington receives the second-half kickoff by possession order; Seattle had the opening possession.
- The 19-drive-per-team sample is small and not opponent-specific; the alternating-race estimate is approximate.
Show all 23 picks
- Under 40.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model under probability 54.5%; market fair under 51.8% from three-book devigged reference (DK, FanDuel, BetMGM).
- Seattle defense allowed -0.21 EPA/play through two games; Washington offense is -0.01 EPA/play with a backup quarterback starting.
- Washington's 0.47 success rate and 28.77-second pace support a lower-possession, lower-efficiency game environment.
- Seattle's +0.08 offensive EPA/play can create scoring efficiently against Washington's defense.
- Seattle Seahawks first-half spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Square-root scaling: first-half margin variance grows with the square root of drives, not linearly with possessions, so a half-game +2.5 should not be less attainable solely because it is shorter.
- Pregame matchup inputs favor Seattle: +0.08 offensive EPA/play versus Washington defense at +0.18 allowed; Seattle defense is -0.21 versus Washington offense at -0.01.
- Full-game key-number mass does not transfer unchanged to halftime because late-game field goals and two-point decisions shape the final-margin distribution.
- Game first-half total under 20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects roughly 16.0 first-half points: 5.5 first-half drives per team in the current drive sample, with 2026 points per drive of 1.56 SEA and 1.35 WSH.
- Seattle's pregame defensive EPA allowed is -0.21 and Washington's offense is -0.01; the matchup does not support a 20.5-point median half.
- Square-root scaling is explicit: variance grows with sqrt of roughly 11 combined half drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance; the 16-point mean still leaves a favorable under distribution.
- The drive sample covers only 2 completed 2026 games, while the points-per-drive rollup covers 5; both are small and internally imperfect samples.
- Marcus Mariota over 169.5 passing yards+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picksWhy it likes it
- Jayden Daniels was officially ruled out at 7:52am PT; Mariota is the current Washington QB priced to start.
- Mariota logged 22 pass snaps, 16 attempts and 111 yards in Week 2 relief duty.
- Washington's recent five-game pass rate is 53.6%, supporting roughly 30-plus attempts in a full start.
- Only one 2026 sample, and it was a partial-game relief appearance rather than an established start.
- Washington Commanders under 16.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Seattle's defense is -0.21 EPA/play to date; Washington's offense is -0.01 EPA/play.
- Model band is roughly 14, 15 Washington points against this defense, below the 16.5 threshold.
- Marcus Mariota replaces ruled-out Jayden Daniels, while Washington has passed on 52.3%, 53.0% of plays.
- Washington has converted 4 of 6 red-zone trips, so finishing has outperformed its efficiency profile.
- Seattle Seahawks first team touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Seattle logged 7 red-zone trips and 3 conversions through two games; Washington allowed 7 trips and 5 conversions.
- Seattle's game preview shows 0.08 away offensive EPA/play and 2.20 points/drive; Washington is without inactive QB Jayden Daniels.
- Washington's red-zone defense has allowed a higher conversion proxy than Seattle's (5-of-7 versus 2-of-3), concentrating first-TD equity with Seattle.
- Seattle's quarterback situation is less clean: the live injury surface lists Sam Darnold out while the usage chart gives Drew Lock 95.8% projected snaps.
- Jadarian Price 1+ touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6:02 AM depth chart lists Price RB1; his 2026 role is early-down hammer.
- Seattle has produced 7 red-zone attempts and 3 touchdowns through two games, creating a concentrated but usable touchdown base.
- Official Seahawks reporting says Price practiced fully and is ready; Darnold is also confirmed to start, stabilizing offensive personnel.
- Seattle's red-zone sample is only 7 trips, so the 3-for-7 conversion rate is highly unstable.
- Washington Commanders spread +3+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +3 pushes when Seattle wins by exactly 3; +3.5 wins.
- ProphetX +3 is 29.85¢ (+235), only 3.48 percentage points below +3.5 at 33.33¢ (+200).
- +3 loses if Seattle wins by 4 or more; an exact-3 result refunds, not wins.
- Washington Commanders to win+335%Won
Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Game total under 33.5−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; quote thinness plus total depth clear the two-of-three test.
- Book-level corroboration is neutral at 3 versus 3; the signal has only two supporting measures.
- Game total under 24.5−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Polymarket US
Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- live Pinnacle centers the full-game total at 40.5 (-101 over/-120 under); the devigged sharp center anchors the distribution.
- Current score is Washington 7, Seattle 0 with 3:25 left in Q1; Under 24.5 allows only 17.5 more points.
- Tier 2: Pinnacle does not quote 24.5; exact-rung external references are DraftKings +1200 and FanDuel +920, so tail interpolation is uncertain.
- Washington Commanders +8.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
TheSHARKZ🤯🤫😱🗝️New modelWhy it likes it
- Matchup EPA edge: Washington -0.05 versus Seattle -0.21, a +0.16 differential.
- Pinnacle spread moved from Washington +7.5 to +9.5, a substantial two-point dog adjustment.
- Current DraftKings price is Washington +8.5 at -115.
- Jayden Daniels is listed out with an elbow injury; Marcus Mariota's replacement baseline is a major uncertainty.
- Sam Darnold passing yards under 222.5−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picksWhy it likes it
- NWS point forecast shows 17 mph northwest wind at kickoff, with gusts to 31 mph and rain likely.
- Sam Darnold is the expected Seattle starter after missing the prior game, creating a weather-sensitive return spot.
- DraftKings offers Under 222.5 at -113.
- Darnold's active status is confirmed by the live prop board, but his recent return introduces workload uncertainty.
- NFL game total under 40.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picksWhy it likes it
- NWS forecast has 17 mph northwest surface wind at 1 PM EDT, with gusts to 31 mph.
- NWS calls for 11, 18 mph sustained wind and a 70% rain chance around Landover.
- Seattle and Washington have recent scoring outputs of 13/31 and 20/22, respectively.
- 40.5 is already a low number, leaving limited margin for a normal-efficiency game.
- Game total under 41.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- pace-to-date is SEA 33.33, WSH 28.77; only two completed 2026 games, seven days rest.
- SEA +0.03, WSH +0.08; positive, but a two-game sample does not prove sustained high-play scoring.
- Ladder check: full 41.5 versus team-total sum 40.0 and twice first-half 43.0; under gets first-half support.
- Most likely loss: Seattle short fields plus Washington efficiency produces 24-20 or similar, clearing 41.5.
- Washington Commanders team total under 15.5−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
+EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 57% model probability versus 51.0% break-even at FanDuel -104: +6.0 points.
- Seattle allowed only 7 and 10 points in its first two 2026 regular-season games.
- Washington loses Jayden Daniels; Mariota's only 2026 appearance was 11-of-16 for 111 yards.
- Washington scored 20 and 22 points in its first two games despite starting 0-2.
- Total points under 40.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices under 40.5 at 51.69¢ (-107) versus under 40 at 50.25¢ (-101): only 1.44 quoted points apart.
- Below 40, both contracts win; above 40.5, both lose, the contracts differ only at exactly 40.
Questions
Who won Seahawks vs. Commanders?
The Commanders won 33-31 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.