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FinalHighmark Stadium
Chargers0-2
16–24Final
Bills2-0
Score by period
Team1234T
LAC1003316
BUF01001424

Top model pick, graded

Won

First quarter does not end level 81¢

Why Level Terms likes it: Chargers +0.5 is 0.44 minus Chargers winner 0.28, implying a 0.16 draw.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 32-11 on this game · +43% return

  1. Buffalo Bills spread −76 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    6 modelsKey Number Pairs, Resting Money +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Bills' current offense EPA/play is +0.34 versus the Chargers' -0.31; Buffalo is 2-0 while Los Angeles is 0-2.
    • NFL margin history shows an absolute 7-point result in 237 of 2,792 games (8.5%), making the -7 rung materially preferable to -7.5.
    • A Buffalo win by 1-6 loses; the exact-7 cluster pushes rather than wins.
    Resting Money
      • Venue self-reference is not independent confirmation; stale or concentrated orders can mimic patient demand.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • feature-based fair estimate is 55% on Buffalo -7; edge is the matchup lens, not a payout argument.
      • Buffalo off EPA/play is +0.34 versus Los Angeles at -0.31; success rate is .5988 versus .3844.
      • Week 3 supplies only two current-season games; this is Partial/Tier 2 rather than a Full-tier NFL leg.
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • 2026 efficiency through 2 games: Buffalo offense +0.34 EPA/play versus Los Angeles offense -0.31; the current sample is partial, so this is LEAN.
      • PFF 2026 card favors Buffalo's offense 80.8 to 56.6; Buffalo is at home and has 10 rest days versus 7 for Los Angeles.
      • Two-game current-season samples require a prior-season blend; the coverage gate caps this at LEAN.
    • Buffalo Bills to winFavorite5 models agree
      +31%Won

      Taken at −325 on DraftKings

      5 modelsBrewing NFL Ml, Quantitative +EV Analyst +3
      Why 5 models like it
      Brewing NFL Ml
      • Josh Allen: 0.47 EPA/dropback and weighted +3.3 CPOE; Justin Herbert: 0.02 and -2.9.
      • Buffalo leads current EPA/play 0.34 to -0.31 and success rate 59.9% to 38.4%.
      • Only two 2026 games inform the efficiency sample; Buffalo's zero turnovers versus Los Angeles' five should regress.
      Quantitative +EV Analyst
      • PIT feature row: Buffalo offensive EPA/play +0.34 versus Los Angeles -0.31; success rate 59.9% versus 38.4%.
      • Recent-10 net EPA gap is +0.29/play for Buffalo: +0.23 versus Los Angeles -0.06; points/drive 3.88 versus 1.24.
      • The current-season feature sample is only two games; the recent-10 window includes prior-season results.
      high-confidence main markets
      • Independent estimate: Buffalo wins 79%; fair price approximately -376 versus DraftKings -325.
      • Current-season EPA/play gap is +0.65 for Buffalo's offense; success rate is 59.9% Bills versus 38.4% Chargers.
      • Bills have fresh game-day questionable tags on DJ Moore, Keon Coleman, Ed Oliver and Terrel Bernard.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • own 78% win estimate from Buffalo's +0.34 offensive EPA/play versus Los Angeles' -0.31 through two games.
      • ProphetX's -310 matches the captured board and is the live venue price; no outside price is needed for the projection claim.
      • Justin Herbert and Josh Allen were identified as the expected starters, but game-day inactive information is not fully posted at this wake.
    • Buffalo Bills −73 models agree
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      3 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, NFL baby +1
      Why 3 models like it
      CLV Sharp ATS
      • Bills -7 at DraftKings is 0.5 points better than the -7.5 consensus and protects the key 7.
      • Last-five net EPA blend: Buffalo +0.28 versus Los Angeles Chargers -0.09, a +0.37 differential.
      • Official game-day inactives are not posted at 6:00 a.m. PT; Josh Allen's active status is not formally confirmed.
      NFL baby
      • PIT net EPA is +0.17 for Buffalo versus -0.28 for Los Angeles, a +0.45/play differential.
      • Buffalo leads success rate 59.9% to 38.4% and explosive rate 19.4% to 10.5%.
      • The public remains heavily on Buffalo, so the hold is not clean reverse line movement.
      NFL Spread Detective
      • Bills score 0.57 vs Chargers -0.03; EPA edge is +0.59.
      • Primary EPA: Bills 0.26 vs Chargers -0.10; edge is +0.35, clearing both required triggers.
      • Only two 2026 games: 63/55 Bills and 59/49 Chargers offensive pass/rush plays.
    • First quarter does not end levelFavoriteHigh conviction
      +23%Won

      Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US

      Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chargers +0.5 is 0.44 minus Chargers winner 0.28, implying a 0.16 draw.
      • The direct draw is quoted 0.20; the complementary NO contract is 0.81 versus the 0.84 implied complement.
      • Winner legs sum to 1.02, close enough to the exhaustive 1.00 identity; no far-sum cap applies.
      • 2025 sample: 69 isolated Q1 ties in 334 games, 20.7%; approximate 95% interval 16.5%-25.3%, not supportive of the NO direction.
    • Buffalo Bills exact margin 1-6Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Normal baseline with empirical signed-margin dispersion 14.16, centered on Buffalo -7.5; key-number reweighting gives Buffalo 1-6 about 20.9%.
      • Exact-margin buckets are high variance; a Buffalo win by 7 lands outside this 1-6 contract.
    • Los Angeles Chargers spread +7High conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chargers +7 pushes on a Bills win by exactly 7; Chargers +7.5 would win on that margin.
      • Chargers lose by 8 or more and the whole-number contract loses; a Chargers win or loss by 6 or fewer is required to cash.
    Show all 32 picks
    1. Under 48.5 total
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    2. Buffalo Bills first-half spread over 4.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest gap: Buffalo has 10 days versus Los Angeles’ 7; the three-day freshness edge is concentrated in the scripted first half.
      • Pinnacle’s full-game BUF -7.5 scaled by a 55% first-half front-load gives 4.1 points; rest and efficiency lift the projection to roughly 5.3, about 56% to clear 4.5.
      • The 10-versus-7 rest edge and first-half uplift are model assumptions, not a directly quoted first-half sportsbook line.
    3. Game first-half total under 25.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game total is 50.5 while the 1H 25.5 and 2H 24.5 anchors sum to only 50.0 before the usual small second-half scoring bump.
      • The matchup inputs are high-scoring overall (BUF 3.88 PPD and +0.34 offensive EPA/play; LAC 1.24 PPD and -0.31 offensive EPA/play), so this is a first-half allocation edge, not a low-total thesis.
      • Using square-root drive scaling, not linear halving, leaves the half distribution wider; with late scoring allocated to 2H, the 1H center sits below 25.5.
      • Current PPD/EPA estimates use only two 2026 games and may be heavily opponent- or turnover-driven.
    4. Los Angeles Chargers first-half spread +2.5
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PM US prices Chargers +1.5 and +2.5 at the same 39¢, giving the +2.5 rung no cost for the extra point.
      • The fitted matchup center is about 3.5 Bills points in the first half from current EPA, pace and points-per-drive inputs; +2.5 is roughly 46% in the fitted distribution versus 39¢.
      • Full-game margin SD is 14.16 points across 2,792 games; square-root-of-drives scaling puts a half SD near 10.0, not the 7.08 from linear halving, supporting the underdog cushion.
      • The square-root scaling assumes roughly independent drives; turnovers, fourth-down choices and halftime game state can make the half distribution wider or narrower.
    5. Tre Harris over 29.5 receiving yards
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 74.5% to 82.1% snap share across his last three games, a clear rising primary role.
      • 49 routes and 9 targets across two 2026 games; receiving yards rose from 20 to 53.
      • Buffalo's 41.6 coverage grade is a favorable matchup signal for Chargers wideouts.
      • Targets fell from 6 to 3 last week despite the snap-share surge.
    6. Buffalo Bills spread −7.5
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    7. Under total 47.5
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    8. Justin Herbert pass yards under 229.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9:30 AM statuses: Herbert active; LAC guards Kayode Awosika and Trey Pipkins out; BUF T.J. Sanders out, Ed Oliver questionable.
      • Pass trench: LAC OL grade 65.0 versus BUF DL pass-rush grade 70.1 and 15.1% win rate; Bills have 48 pressures.
      • Run trench is not the thesis: LAC run-block grade 56.3 versus BUF run-defense grade 53.7, leaving a possible Hampton outlet.
      • LAC tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt each played 100% of prior snaps; replacing low-snap Pipkins may not materially weaken protection.
    9. Buffalo Bills −7.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at +100 on FanDuel

      NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Blended fair spread: Buffalo -10.0, a 2.5-point gap versus the -7.5 consensus.
      • At kickoff cutoff, Buffalo led in offense EPA/play (+0.34 to -0.31), success rate (59.9% to 38.4%), and points/drive (3.88 to 1.24).
      • 2025 prior still favors Buffalo: +0.10 offensive EPA/play and 2.75 points/drive versus the Chargers' -0.01 and 2.07.
      • The current-season sample is only two regular-season games, so Buffalo's EPA and scoring gap can regress sharply.
    10. Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −122 on FanDuel

      Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Jim Harbaugh is 66-33-1 (.665) in NFL regular-season coaching; Joe Brady has never been a head coach at any level.
      • Live coach lookup shows a major experience gap: Harbaugh has 6 NFL coaching years versus Brady's 0.
      • Chargers have the posted underdog cushion at +7.5, clearing the +3.5 value threshold for a medium-conviction position.
      • Chargers are 0-2 while Buffalo is 2-0, and the pregame model gives Buffalo large EPA and points-per-drive advantages.
    11. Los Angeles Chargers under 21.5 team points
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Matchup fit is a conservative 18, 19 LAC points: Buffalo's defense is permissive (+0.17 EPA/play allowed), but the Chargers offense has been materially worse.
      • The board looks spread-split: 50.5 game total and Buffalo -7.5 imply roughly 21.5 Chargers points; the matchup model says that split overstates LAC.
      • Buffalo's +0.17 defensive EPA allowed is a real escape route for Chargers scoring via explosive plays or short fields.
    12. Game total under 50.5
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      Pigskin PeteDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chargers −0.17 offensive EPA/play and 1.45 points/drive versus Buffalo +0.19 and 3.06.
      • Last-six scoring averages combine for 44.2 points: Chargers 14.0, Bills 30.2.
      • Both confirmed starters are active: Justin Herbert and Josh Allen; no backup-QB uncertainty.
      • Buffalo's 3.06 points/drive and 14.7% explosive-play rate can threaten 30 points alone.
    13. James Cook first touchdown scorerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +425 on DraftKings

      NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fallback strength-adjusted read: Buffalo is +0.34 EPA/play, 59.9% success, and 3.88 points/drive; the Chargers allow -0.03 EPA/play.
      • Buffalo has 8 red-zone attempts and 6 conversions in two games; Cook owns 4 red-zone carries, 3 inside the 10, and 73.3% of RB snaps.
      • Cook is the Bills' verified workhorse and has 34 rushing attempts plus 7 receiving targets through two games.
      • Two-game sample makes the red-zone allocation estimate noisy.
    14. Josh Allen under 2 passing touchdowns
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION / venue self-reference: Polymarket US prices NO at 44¢ with both sides quoted and tradable.
      • Josh Allen has 0 passing TDs, 5 attempts, 2 completions, 9 yards and 1 interception after the opening drives.
      • Buffalo has produced 0 red-zone trips through the live snapshot; its first three offensive possessions ended fumble, punt and interception.
      • The sample is only the opening quarter; Buffalo can create multiple late red-zone drives.
    15. James Cook III first Buffalo Bills touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Buffalo has 8 red-zone attempts and 6 conversions through two games.
      • Cook is the declared RB1, a workhorse, and carries a 73.3% snap share.
      • Buffalo's +0.34 offensive EPA-to-date and home-favorite script should concentrate late-drive rushing equity.
      • Josh Allen's designed-run role and Buffalo's tight-end usage can displace Cook at the goal line.
    16. James Cook III touchdowns over 1
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 73.3% offensive snap share and RB1 workhorse label; Buffalo's next backs are at 14.5% and 11.5%.
      • Cook posted 21 carries and a rushing touchdown in Week 2 after 13 carries in Week 1.
      • Only two 2026 games support the 8-trip Buffalo red-zone sample; the conversion rate can regress sharply.
    17. Justin Herbert under 31.5 passing attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −119 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 10-game baseline: 27.2 attempts per game; under 31.5 in 8 of 10.
      • Herbert has stayed at 27 attempts in both 2026 regular-season starts.
      • DraftKings -119 implies a 54.3% break-even rate; estimated true probability 66%, +11.7 points.
      • Herbert was over this line in 2 of the 10-game sample, including 32 and 33 attempts.
    18. Game total under 51 (push at exactly 51)
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 51 pushes on exactly 51 total points; under 51.5 wins at 51.
    19. Game total under 43.5
      +223%Won

      Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels corroborate equally at 3 versus 3; two of three measures qualify the pattern. Directional coherence: backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX self-reference is not an independent statistical edge; resting orders can be stale, strategic, or cancelled.
    20. Los Angeles Chargers to winLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    21. Omarion Hampton over 59.5 rushing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 68.5 rushing yards per game through two starts is 15.1% above the 59.5 line.
      • Usage rose from 12 to 23 carries; rushing production rose from 43 to 94 yards.
      • Buffalo allowed positive defensive EPA per play in both games: +0.12 and +0.21.
      • A Bills lead could force Los Angeles into a pass-heavy script and reduce late carries.
    22. Buffalo Bills first-half winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Buffalo has 10 rest days versus the Chargers' 7, a material 3-day first-half freshness edge.
      • BUF offensive EPA to date is 0.34/play versus LAC -0.31, a +0.65/play gap; points per drive are 3.88 versus 1.24.
      • first-half Buffalo -264 versus LAC +224 is 70.1% Buffalo after de-vigging, conditional on a non-tie.
      • The contract requires Buffalo to lead at halftime; a tie loses rather than pushes, and the 7.5% tie adjustment is only an estimate.
    23. Dalton Kincaid over 57.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PFF REGPO, 2 games: depth-weighted aDOT 13.4; deep-plus-medium share is 57.1%, up from 53.3% in 2025.
      • NGS REG, 2 games: intended air yards average 12.70; separation rose 2.00 to 4.09.
      • Air-yards share rose 26.7% to 35.1%; PFF REGPO route grade is 91.0 with 4.69 yprr.
      • Most likely loss: Buffalo leads early, turns run-heavy, and Chargers bracket Kincaid underneath, leaving his 42.9% short-depth share dominant.
    24. Justin Herbert passing yards under 229.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Sustained Buffalo wind forecast at 16, 17 mph supplies the qualifying weather catalyst.
      • Herbert has 401 passing yards through two games, a 200.5-yard average versus the 229.5 line.
      • DraftKings offers the live Under 229.5 at -112; the market names Herbert as the active quarterback prop subject.
      • Only two games support the season average, so the sample is thin.
    25. NFL game total under 50.5
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Sustained Buffalo wind forecast at 16, 17 mph clears the >15 mph catalyst.
      • DraftKings has a live Under 50.5 at -115, checked at 9:01am PT.
      • Outdoor venue makes wind directly relevant to passing and kicking efficiency.
      • This is a single-catalyst spot; no qualifying East Coast-to-west short-week travel edge.
    26. Total Points under 50.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Two-game sample: Buffalo offense +0.34 EPA/play versus Los Angeles offense -0.31.
      • Matchup is asymmetric: Buffalo offense +0.34 against Chargers defense -0.03; Chargers offense faces Buffalo defense +0.17.
      • Recent 10-game blended window: Chargers offense -0.11 EPA/play; Bills offense +0.16.
      • Both offenses have high pace: 31.19 and 31.71 seconds per offensive play proxy, increasing possession variance.

    Questions

    Who won Chargers vs. Bills?

    The Bills won 24-16 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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