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FinalFord Field
Jets1-1
24–31Final
Lions1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
NYJ0731424
DET01071431

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over total 51.5 41¢

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-20 on this game · −11% return

  1. New York Jets spread +6.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    4 modelsNFL Spread Detective, Always wins +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Jets EPA Strategy Score +0.33 vs Lions -0.28; EPA Edge +0.61 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Jets defensive pass EPA z-score +1.05 and defensive explosive z-score +1.36.
    • Only two 2026 regular-season games feed the current-season league-relative z-scores; pass/rush samples range from 46 to 75 plays per team.
    Always wins
    • 76% of spread tickets backed Detroit, clearing the >65% public-concentration gate.
    • Detroit moved from -9.5 to -6.5 despite heavy Lions support: a three-point reverse move toward New York.
    • The Jets' last-10 offense EPA/play is -0.22 versus Detroit's +0.01.
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread: Detroit -4.8; market consensus is Detroit -6.5.
    • Jets defense is -0.19 EPA/play allowed through Week 2 versus Detroit offense at +0.04.
    • The model edge is only 1.7 points, below the 2.5-point high-conviction threshold.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Jets defensive EPA/play is -0.19 versus Detroit's +0.16, a 0.35 EPA/play defensive gap favoring the cushion.
    • Week 3 has only two current-season games; the NFL gate is Partial and this is Tier 2.
  2. Detroit Lions to winFavorite2 models agree
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Current-season efficiency through two games: DET off EPA +0.04, defensive EPA +0.16, success .504, PPD 2.83; NYJ: -.047, -.191, .424, 1.75.
    • Detroit has a 10-to-7 rest-day edge; Jared Goff and Geno Smith are the named starting quarterbacks.
    • The rating is built on only two regular-season games, so early-season variance is substantial.
    Long Way Home
    • Detroit has 10 rest days versus New York's 7, supporting the home favorite in a short-price projection.
    • The directional read is Lions win, consistent with the existing low-total game script rather than opposing it.
    • Detroit's early-season sample is only two regular-season games and its defensive EPA allowed to date is poor at .1562.
  3. Amon-Ra St. Brown over 7.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 13 and 14 targets produced 10 and 9 receptions in his first two games.
    • Snap share rose from 89.6% to 95.4%; route snaps climbed from 39 to 45.
    • The sample is only two regular-season games, so the 9.5 average is fragile.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Own fair probability 54%; FanDuel break-even is 43.5% (+10.5 percentage points).
    • St. Brown has 19 receptions on 27 targets in 2026, with 9 and 10 catches in the first two games.
    • His 2025 last-10 sample went over 7.5 in only 5 of 10 games and averaged 6.7 receptions.
  4. Over total 51.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
  5. Detroit Lions spread over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate passed: Jared Goff and Geno Smith were rank-1 depth-chart QBs at 6:02 PDT; latest game injury feed had no QB row.
    • Jets current defensive EPA allowed is -0.19 versus Detroit's +0.16, opposing the model's small positive adjustment.
  6. Detroit Lions first-half spread over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit has 10 rest days versus New York’s 7; the three-day freshness edge is largest before halftime.
    • To-date success rate is .5042 Detroit versus .4235 New York; points per drive is 2.83 versus 1.75.
    • The live state is 0-0 with 1:06 left in Q1; one stalled Detroit drive or Jets explosive play erases a narrow margin.
Show all 34 picks
  1. Detroit Lions first-half winner
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is the primary lever: Detroit has 10 rest days versus New York's 7, a 3-day first-half freshness gap.
    • Baseline features were computed through September 20, not through this morning; recent form and late information may be under-reflected.
  2. NY Jets vs DET Lions 3Q total over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's season-to-date profile is fast (28.5 seconds/play), pass-heavy (+14.6% PROE), and positive on offense (+0.04 EPA/play).
    • New York's 33.7-second pace and +4.3% PROE still provide enough possession opportunity; its offense is weaker (-0.05 EPA/play), but combined points-per-drive are 2.83 and 1.75.
    • Fitted probability is approximately 58%, a 13-point separation from the venue price; the projection is wide but clears the quarter-market threshold.
    • Only two 2026 games inform the team efficiency and points-per-drive estimates.
  3. New York Jets first-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jets defense is -0.19 EPA/play allowed through two games; Detroit's defense is +0.16, a material first-half matchup gap.
    • 2026 to-date points per drive are 1.75 for New York versus 2.83 for Detroit, but the Jets' 33.66-second pace creates extra possession opportunity.
    • Square-root scaling matters: first-half margin SD scales with sqrt(drives), not a linear half of full-game variance, preserving more close-game and underdog-win mass.
    • Only two completed 2026 games per team support the EPA, pace, and points-per-drive inputs; sampling error is substantial.
  4. New York Jets first-half spread +3.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 to date: NYJ defense -0.19 EPA/play allowed; DET defense +0.16, reversing much of the raw favorite gap.
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA points toward a compressed early margin despite Detroit's 2.83 versus New York's 1.75 points/drive.
    • With roughly half the drives, margin variance scales by square root of drives, not linearly; +3.5 captures wider half-game tails.
    • Only two 2026 games inform the matchup; EPA and points/drive are extremely noisy.
  5. New York Jets @ Detroit Lions second-half total over 23.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1H 23.5 plus 2H 23.5 totals 47, versus the live full-game total 48.5; the 2H number is the low anchor.
    • Current PPD: Detroit 2.83 and New York 1.75 across two games; pace inputs are 28.48/33.66, with 63.5/68.5 plays per game.
    • The fitted 2H center is about 25.0-25.5 after a modest late-scoring bump, making over 23.5 roughly a 6-point probability disagreement at 50c.
    • PPD is a thin two-game 2026 sample, and the game-feature EPA fields were null, so defensive matchup adjustment is limited.
  6. Detroit Lions spread −3.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  7. Detroit Lions −6.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    CLV Sharp ATSDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lions recent offense EPA/play +0.01 versus Jets -0.22; success rate 47.5% versus 39.8%.
    • Defense-adjusted EPA/success blend projects Detroit about 9.5 points, roughly 2.5 above the -7 consensus.
    • FanDuel offers -6.5 while the market consensus is -7, gaining the primary key number 7.
    • The current-season sample is only two games; the 10-game window also mixes prior-season results.
  8. Detroit Lions team total under 26.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit offense is +0.04 EPA/play against New York's strong -0.19 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Detroit's 2.83 points per drive meets the Jets' defense, the matchup's key downward adjustment.
    • Detroit has converted 12 of 16 red-zone trips (75%), creating efficient scoring opportunities.
  9. New York Jets spread +7
    0%Push

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA form narrows Detroit's margin: Lions offense +0.04 vs Jets -0.05, but Jets defense allows -0.19 EPA/play vs Detroit +0.16.
    • Pace and film support a competitive script: Jets 33.66 seconds/play, Lions 28.48; Jets defense grade 73.4 versus Detroit 61.6.
    • Sharp reference has Detroit -7 +104 at Pinnacle versus -6.5 -120 at DraftKings; ProphetX supplies the Jets +7 rung rather than laying the key number.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit wins by 8 or more, overcoming the Jets' key-number cushion.
  10. Jahmyr Gibbs first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +300 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 29% first-touchdown probability; fair price +245 versus FanDuel's +300.
    • Detroit's pregame offense leads New York in EPA/play (+0.04 vs -0.05), success rate (.5042 vs .4235), and points/drive (2.83 vs 1.75).
    • Gibbs is Detroit's RB1/workhorse: 78.2% snap share, 50 run snaps, 50 route snaps, and 57.5% route participation across two games.
    • Only two current-season games underpin Gibbs's red-zone sequence and first-score history; touchdown ordering is highly volatile.
  11. New York Jets exact margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main spread centers Detroit at -7, but this underdog bucket is concentrated around football key numbers.
    • The 16.7% estimate is an unconditional historical reweight, not a team-specific matchup model.
  12. Jared Goff 2+ passing touchdowns
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Goff is confirmed QB1, depth-chart rank 1, and has taken all 9 Detroit pass attempts live.
    • Detroit has produced 7 red-zone touchdowns on 9 trips this season; Jets opponents have converted 3 of 5.
    • Gibbs' workhorse role is the goal-line proxy, but Detroit's overall scoring efficiency still supports two passing scores.
    • Only 0 red-zone trips and 0 passing touchdowns through the opening quarter; the live sample is tiny.
  13. Amon-Ra St. Brown 1+ touchdowns
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • St. Brown has 27 targets and 4 receiving touchdowns through two 2026 games.
    • He owns a 92.3% projected snap share, supporting route and red-zone-package access.
    • Detroit has produced 9 red-zone drives with 7 conversions; its 2.83 points/drive leads the Jets' 1.75.
    • Jahmyr Gibbs has the clearer workhorse role and three touchdowns already, creating goal-line cannibalization.
  14. Detroit Lions first team to score points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit is at +0.04 offensive EPA/play and 2.83 points/drive to date; New York is at -0.05 and 1.75.
    • Detroit has converted 7 of 9 red-zone trips; New York has converted 4 of 6, supporting more efficient early scoring equity.
    • Current depth chart confirms Jahmyr Gibbs as RB1; his workhorse role carries a 78.2% snap share, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has 92.3%.
    • First score is highly sensitive to the coin toss and opening-drive script; possession outcome is not yet known.
  15. Jared Goff over 33.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own fair probability 63%; DraftKings break-even is 50.5% (+12.5 percentage points).
    • Goff has 38 and 39 attempts in 2026; his 2025 last-10 average was 37.5 with 7/10 over 33.5.
    • Detroit has a 61.1% 2026 pass rate, while Goff has played 100% of offensive snaps in both games.
    • Jets' pregame defensive EPA allowed is -0.19, creating sack and stalled-drive risk.
  16. New York Jets @ Detroit Lions game total over 49
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 49 pushes if the final total is exactly 49; over 49.5 loses at 49.
    • ProphetX quotes over 49 at -110 (52.38c) but adjacent over 49.5 at -103 (50.74c).
    • The 69-game exact-total estimate spans 2016-2025 and may not match this matchup's scoring distribution.
  17. Detroit Lions spread −7
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit -7 pushes on a literal 7-point win; Detroit -7.5 loses.
    • ProphetX prices Detroit -7 at 47.62¢ (+110) versus -7.5 at 44.05¢ (+127), only a 3.57-point price gap for the push protection.
    • The 3.57-point ladder gap is modest and may already reflect the matchup's current margin distribution.
  18. Game total over 51.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 over versus 3 under; two of three measures agree, and backing over 51.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire primary read; no independent sharp reference is being used.
  19. New York Jets spread −0.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Jets 3 versus Lions 3; tie, so two of three measures agree.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3.
  20. First-half total under 24.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit has 10 rest days to New York's 7; offensive EPA gap favors Detroit by 0.09.
    • NYJ defensive EPA is -0.19 and its pace is 33.66 sec/play, limiting first-half possessions.
    • pace-normalized four-drive model with 10% script uplift projects 20.7 points versus 24.5.
    • Jets defense is a major counter-signal; Detroit's defensive EPA is +0.16, allowing efficient Lions drives.
  21. Game total over 49.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • pace_to_date is 33.66 NYJ and 28.48 DET; blended pace is 31.07.
    • Both PROE readings are positive: +0.04 NYJ and +0.15 DET, supporting pass rate and play-count variance.
    • team-total lines sum to 51.0, 1.5 points above the 49.5 game total.
    • Coverage is only two completed 2026 feature rows per team, so this is capped at LEAN.
  22. game 1H total under 24.5
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 21.5 first-half points, 3.0 below the 24.5 market line.
    • 48.5 full-game total implies a naive 24.25 first-half split; projected first-half divergence is 2.75 points.
    • The teams combined for 17 first-half points per game through Week 2; the Jets averaged only 1.75 points per drive in 2026.
    • Detroit averaged 2.83 points per drive across its first two games and plays quickly, creating early scripted-drive upside.
  23. New York Jets +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup model projects Detroit by 5.4 points, 1.1 points inside the market spread.
    • New York's defense is -0.19 EPA allowed/play; Detroit's defense is +0.16, a 0.35 EPA/play matchup swing.
    • DraftKings offers +6.5 at +100; FanDuel is -105 and BetMGM -102 on the same line.
    • The EPA feature sample is only two 2026 games and is PIT-cut through September 20.
  24. Total Points under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jets offense is -0.05 EPA/play and operates at 33.66 seconds per play, limiting efficient possessions.
    • Detroit is faster at 28.48 seconds per play, but New York's defense is -0.19 EPA/play.
    • Geno Smith and Jared Goff are both current QB1s; neither is ruled out in the fresh pregame report.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit's +0.16 defensive EPA/play creates enough Jets scoring efficiency to overwhelm the under.
  25. Detroit Lions spread −6.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; 2 current-season games, prior-season blend flagged: Detroit offense +0.04 EPA/play vs New York defense -0.19.
    • New York offense -0.05 EPA/play vs Detroit defense +0.16; the opponent-adjusted matchup differential points to a Detroit margin.
    • Detroit has 10 rest days to New York's 7 and is at home; the game is not neutral.
    • LEAN cap: only 2 2026 games; the EPA sample is noisy and requires a prior-season blend.
  26. Game total under 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jets have the slower profile: 33.66 seconds/play and only 1.75 points per drive; Detroit averages 2.83.
    • New York enters with Mason Taylor, Kiko Mauigoa, and Minkah Fitzpatrick out; Adonai Mitchell remains questionable, reducing offensive continuity.
    • Detroit's defense is the counterpoint: +0.16 defensive EPA/play through two games can create a scoring environment.
  27. New York Jets @ Detroit Lions under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 56% win probability versus DraftKings break-even 52.4%.
    • Fair total is approximately 47 points, below the posted 49.5.
    • Jets defense has allowed -0.19 EPA per play through two games.
    • Detroit's offense has produced 2.83 points per drive and a 0.11 explosive-play rate.
  28. Game total under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Personnel gate cleared live: declared QB1s are Geno Smith and Jared Goff in 6:02 AM depth-chart snapshots; nfl_injury_latest returned no QB designation rows.
    • Partial NFL tier: both teams have only two current-season games, below the brief's three-game Full threshold.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Lions?

The Lions won 31-24 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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