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FinalLevi's Stadium
Cardinals1-1
30–36Final
49ers2-0
Score by period
Team1234T
ARI0671730
SF71061336

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Francisco 49ers first-half winner 67¢

Why Split Decision likes it: Pinnacle/DraftKings 1H SF moneyline -273/-278 devigs to 70.5%; Kalshi raw 0.67 is 67 cents.

Split DecisionUp 8% return this season · 199 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-25 on this game · −16% return

  1. San Francisco 49ers −7.56 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    6 modelsNFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model, NFL baby +4
    Why 6 models like it
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Regressed 2025/2026 opponent-adjusted blend makes San Francisco approximately 9.5-point favorites, a 2-point model gap.
    • San Francisco leads 2026 EPA/play 0.28 to Arizona -0.18 and success rate 59.7% to 41.2%.
    • Pinnacle moved San Francisco from -8.5 to -7.5 before kickoff; sharp movement favors Arizona and may reflect information not fully captured by the model.
    NFL baby
    • PIT matrix: SF net efficiency is 0.47 EPA/play versus Arizona -0.12, a 0.59 gap.
    • SF leads 3.69 to 1.53 in points per drive, supporting a material margin advantage.
    • The efficiency sample covers only two 2026 games and may regress substantially.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • SF strategy score +0.19 vs ARI -0.77; EPA edge +0.96.
    • Primary EPA edge +0.54 clears the +0.20 trigger.
    • Only two 2026 games; five-game form blends three prior-season games, limiting current-season certainty.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 49ers' 2026 pregame model: +0.27 offensive EPA/play versus Arizona -0.18.
    • San Francisco defense allows -0.19 EPA/play versus Arizona's -0.05; success-rate edge is 59.7% to 41.2%.
    • Only two 2026 games inform the current efficiency gap; early-season variance is substantial.
  2. San Francisco 49ers spread −7.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 55.0% SF cover: +0.28 offensive EPA/play and -0.19 defensive EPA/play through two regular-season games.
    • Arizona rates -0.18 offensive EPA/play and -0.05 defensive EPA/play; SF's efficiency gap supports margin separation.
    • Two-game samples make both teams' EPA and success estimates noisy.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • SF offense EPA/play +0.28 vs Arizona -0.18 (+0.45); SF defensive EPA allowed -0.19 vs Arizona +0.22.
    • SF leads early-season success rate .612-.383 and explosive rate .204-.021 on the two-game sample.
    • Partial NFL tier: both teams have only two current-season games, so EPA and explosiveness are noisy.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • SF offense is +0.27 EPA/play against ARI defense at -0.05; ARI offense is -0.18 against SF defense at -0.19 (2 games each).
    • The required prior-season fallback still favors SF: 2025 SF offense averaged +0.04 EPA/play while ARI defense allowed +0.10; ARI offense was +0.00 while SF defense allowed +0.00.
    • LEAN only: both teams have just 2 current-season games, so the desk must blend in prior-season data rather than rely on a 3-game sample.
  3. San Francisco 49ers to winFavorite3 models agree
    +25%Won

    Taken at −395 on DraftKings

    3 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Brewing NFL Ml +1
    Why 3 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Model estimate: San Francisco wins 82%; fair price approximately -456 versus DraftKings -395.
    • SF leads 2026 form in offensive EPA/play (0.28 vs -0.18), success rate (59.7% vs 41.2%), and points/drive (3.69 vs 1.53).
    • Nick Bosa is out and Mike Evans remains questionable, reducing SF's defensive and receiving edges.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • SF is +0.27 offensive EPA/play and -0.19 defensive EPA/play allowed through two games; Arizona is -0.18 and -0.05.
    • Brock Purdy is confirmed to start: 5 TD, 1 INT, 81.9 PFF pass grade and 11.7-point weighted CPOE through two games.
    • Only two regular-season games support the efficiency sample; opponent adjustment and turnover regression remain noisy.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • San Francisco is 8-2 across the preview's last 10; Arizona is 1-9.
    • Last-10 net EPA/play advantage is 0.18: 49ers +0.07 versus Cardinals -0.11.
    • The 83% projection is my estimate, not a published model probability; the current-season sample is only two games.
  4. Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions2 models agree
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Snap Share
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • McBride has 17 receptions on 23 targets through two games, averaging 8.5 catches and 11.5 targets.
    • His game logs are 9-13 and 8-10; both clear the 7.5-reception line.
    • Two-game sample is thin, and San Francisco's defense is materially stronger than Arizona's recent opponents.
    Snap Share
    • TE1 by observed usage: 83.2% season snap share, 104 snaps; 17 receptions on 23 targets.
    • Arizona averaged 62 plays and 58.3% pass rate; project 63 plays, 36.7 dropbacks, 10.9 targets and 7.8 receptions.
    • McBride is active, but target distribution can change with San Francisco coverage or an early Arizona lead.
  5. Arizona Cardinals to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Sharp Cohort NFL
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing Arizona Cardinals, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is a ProphetX self-reference read, not an independent projection or proven statistical edge.
    Sharp Cohort NFL
    • Game-day espn_live data lists Arizona QB Carson Beck and San Francisco QB Kurtis Rourke out; neither listed starter, Jacoby Brissett or Brock Purdy, is designated out, and NFL confirms Purdy will start.
    • Qualifying positions average 22.0c, 23.0c; current price has moved no more than roughly 0.5c in their favor, so the 4-point decay limit is not breached.
    • Arizona can lose outright if San Francisco's home-field and roster edge overwhelm the cohort signal.
  6. San Francisco 49ers first-half winnerFavoriteHigh conviction
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle/DraftKings 1H SF moneyline -273/-278 devigs to 70.5%; Kalshi raw 0.67 is 67 cents.
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; no short-week penalty, while SF's scripted baseline is materially stronger.
    • EPA gap: SF offense +0.27 vs ARI -0.18; SF defense -0.19 vs ARI -0.05.
    • No rest advantage exists; this is an efficiency projection, not the brief's strongest rest signal.
Show all 27 picks
  1. San Francisco 49ers exact margin 1-6Long shot
    +525%Won

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is San Francisco -7.5 at -105; direction matches this home-favorite bucket.
    • Evaluated: San Francisco 7-13 was roughly 19% at 19¢; 14-20 roughly 14% at 22¢; 21+ roughly 16% at 24¢.
    • The baseline is an all-game margin distribution reweighted around the spread, not a team-specific simulation.
  2. San Francisco 49ers spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF leads ARI in current form: offensive EPA .2749 vs -.1762, success .5971 vs .4123, explosive rate .1543 vs .0431.
    • Polymarket US is OPEN, tradable, and both sides are quoted: SF -6.5 costs 57¢; no placeholder price.
    • Only two current-season games per team, so coverage is PARTIAL rather than FULL; prior-year form is volatile.
  3. Over total 49.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main total is 48.5 at Over -106 / Under -106; devigged reference is 50.0% Over.
    • Partial coverage: both teams have only 2 current-season games, below the 4-game Full threshold; the adjustment is sample-sensitive.
  4. San Francisco 49ers spread over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main SF -7.5 was -105/-105; devigged SF-cover probability is 50.0%; this SF -8.5 rung is one point away.
    • Current form favors San Francisco: offense EPA/play +0.28 vs Arizona -0.18, defensive EPA allowed -0.19 vs -0.05, success rate .597 vs .412.
    • Nick Bosa is currently Out and Mike Evans is Questionable; San Francisco personnel absences can compress the margin despite the form edge.
  5. First-half total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; SF EPA/play is +0.27 offense and -0.19 defense versus ARI -0.18 and -0.05.
    • Full-game Pinnacle total is 48.5; PPD and pace imply about 25.1 points over 4.8 combined first-half drives, plus a 4% script premium gives approximately 26.1.
    • Rest provides no mismatch; the strongest first-half lever is absent, so this is an efficiency/script projection rather than a rest edge.
  6. Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers 2Q total under 14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 completed-game Q2 average is 12.07 points.
    • Only 16 of 42 completed Q2s reached at least 14 points, bounding the 15+ tail.
    • SF pregame PPD was 3.69; Arizona’s was 1.53, supporting a moderate two-possession window.
    • Q2 is historically the highest-scoring quarter; one short field or explosive play breaks 14.5.
  7. Game first-half total under 25.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fresh inputs: ARI offense −0.18 EPA/play; SF defense −0.19 EPA/play allowed.
    • Fitted first-half mean 22.3 points; sqrt(drives) scaling preserves half variance, not a linear game split.
    • Under 25.5 costs 56¢; model 62%, six-point disagreement, with the 48.5 full-game total as anchor.
    • Only two 2026 games per team; current points-per-drive inputs are thin.
  8. Arizona Cardinals first-half spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco: +0.28 offensive EPA/play and -0.19 defensive EPA allowed; Arizona: -0.18 offense and -0.05 defense through two games.
    • Pace is mixed rather than a clear SF early-possession advantage: 36.55 seconds/play for SF versus 31.09 for Arizona.
    • Using square-root scaling, first-half margin dispersion is about 10.0 points (14.16 full-game SD / sqrt(2)); variance does not halve linearly.
    • The current-season sample is only two games per team; SF's 3.69 points/drive and Arizona's 1.53 points/drive are thin and volatile.
  9. Under total 47
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  10. Arizona Cardinals 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +185 on DraftKings

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona and San Francisco are confirmed NFC West divisional rivals.
    • Arizona scored 20 first-quarter points across its last five games: 4.0 per game, exactly meeting the scripted-scoring gate.
    • San Francisco allowed 0.08 first-quarter EPA per play across its last five games, above the -0.05 slow-start threshold.
    • Arizona's first-quarter scoring differential is -4 across those five games, so the high-conviction bar is not met.
  11. Arizona Cardinals under 20.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fit: Arizona's 1.53 points/drive and -0.18 offensive EPA/play face San Francisco's -0.19 defensive EPA/play; fitted band is 16, 19 points.
    • Arizona averaged 16.5 points through two games with 3-of-6 red-zone conversions; San Francisco has allowed 10.0 points per game.
    • The board looks spread-split-derived: 48.5 game total and San Francisco -7.5 imply roughly 20.5, 28.0, while this matchup model prices Arizona below that anchor.
    • Nick Bosa and Romello Height are out, weakening San Francisco's pass rush; the to-date defensive data may overstate the matchup.
  12. San Francisco 49ers spread −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF current off EPA/play is +0.27 versus Arizona -0.18; SF defensive EPA allowed is -0.19 versus Arizona -0.05 through two games.
    • PFF 2026 team grades favor San Francisco 79.4 to 69.1; records are SF 2-0 and Arizona 1-1.
    • exact 7-point margins occurred 237 of 2,792 NFL regular/postseason games (8.5%); -7 preserves a push where -7.5 loses.
    • Nick Bosa is listed Out and Mike Evans Questionable for San Francisco, creating personnel uncertainty not fully captured by the team-grade card.
  13. George Kittle first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1000 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco posted +0.28 offensive EPA/play, 59.7% success and 3.69 points/drive through two 2026 games.
    • Kittle has 3 verified red-zone targets, 1 red-zone touchdown and 9 total targets in two games; he ran 15 routes on 47% of snaps last week.
    • Estimated first-touchdown probability 10.5%; fair price +852 versus FanDuel's live +1000, with Kittle confirmed active in the participant feed.
    • Christian McCaffrey has 8 red-zone touches and two rushing touchdowns, creating the clearest competing first-score path.
  14. Trey McBride under 1 touchdownFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McBride has an 83.2% snap share, but no verified player-level red-zone share or goal-line role.
    • Arizona has only six red-zone trips through two games, converting three.
    • SF allowed one touchdown on five opponent red-zone trips, a strong defense-side constraint.
    • McBride's 83.2% field presence can convert a scarce chance into a touchdown.
  15. San Francisco 49ers first touchdown
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF has +0.27 offensive EPA/play to date versus Arizona at -0.18.
    • SF converted 7 of 8 red-zone trips; Arizona's defense has allowed 5 touchdowns on 8 trips.
    • Arizona converted 3 of 6 red-zone trips; SF's defense allowed only 1 touchdown on five opponent trips.
    • Mike Evans has an ESPN game-day Questionable designation, reducing SF's receiving certainty.
  16. San Francisco 49ers spread −7 (push at exactly a 7-point win)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The exact -7 contract pushes at a 7-point 49ers win; adjacent -7.5 loses that outcome.
  17. San Francisco 49ers −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  18. Game total over 64.5Long shot
    +614%Won

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Point-in-time inputs show SF at 36.6 seconds/play and +6.5% PROE, ARI at 31.1 seconds/play and +13.1% PROE; season PPD is 2.89 SF and 2.35 ARI.
    • Exact full-game rung is 16 points above the sharp center, in the desk's wing; both sides are quoted and the listing is open/tradable.
    • This is a far-tail extrapolation, not a central-total play; the model is materially less reliable in this region.
  19. Game total under 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • through Week 2, Arizona owns -0.18 offensive EPA/play and 1.53 points/drive; San Francisco defense is -0.19 EPA/play.
    • San Francisco's 0.27 offensive EPA/play and 3.69 points/drive are strong, but the matchup's weak Arizona offense creates a lower-scoring path than the 48.5 market.
    • Live depth chart lists Jacoby Brissett and Brock Purdy first at QB; neither has a current Out/Doubtful designation, with Brissett also full in the latest official report.
    • Only two current-season games feed the efficiency sample; the NFL brief grades this Partial rather than Full.
  20. San Francisco 49ers spread −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF's pre-kick model leads Arizona by 0.45 EPA/play offensively, 0.18 success rate, and 0.11 explosive rate.
    • SF leads 3.69 to 1.53 points per drive and 0.60 to 0.41 in success rate through two regular-season games.
    • ProphetX's related prices point the same way: SF moneyline -350 and main spread -7.5 at -103; positioning supports, but does not prove, the projection.
    • The most likely loss is a San Francisco win that stays inside two touchdowns; the alt spread needs a 15-point margin.
  21. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona has -0.18 offensive EPA/play and 1.53 points/drive through two games; San Francisco's defense is at -0.19 EPA/play allowed.
    • The 49ers' 4.38 points/drive offense is the counterweight, but Arizona's recent 0.7 points/drive makes a high-scoring contribution less likely.
    • This is a one-leg ticket, so no combination tax applies; the 48-point push protection matters at a near-market number.
    • San Francisco's 0.27 offensive EPA/play and 4.38 points/drive can produce an efficient blowout that clears 48 without Arizona carrying the scoring.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. 49ers?

The 49ers won 36-30 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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