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FinalCaesars Superdome
Raiders2-0
35–27Final
Saints1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
LV31361335
NO6714027

Top model pick, graded

Won

Las Vegas Raiders spread +2.5 42¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Raiders defense is -0.30 EPA/play versus New Orleans defense at -0.06; model gives the underdog a modest cover lift.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-23 on this game · −2% return

  1. Las Vegas Raiders spread +3.54 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    4 modelsNFL Luck Regression, Key Number Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Luck Score: Saints 0.67 vs Raiders 0.09; difference −0.58 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary Luck: Saints 0.49 vs Raiders 0.24; difference −0.25 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • Only four recent charted games qualified for both teams, limiting stability of every component.
    Key Number Pairs
    • NFL margin-3 results are 409/2,792 (14.6%), while the ProphetX +3.5-to-+3 ladder step prices only 5.84 percentage points of mass (51.92c to 46.08c).
    • Las Vegas defense is -0.30 EPA/play allowed to date versus New Orleans offense at +0.01, supporting a tighter margin distribution.
    • New Orleans can win by four or more; its moneyline is still 63.24c at ProphetX.
    NFL baby
    • Raiders lead 2026 net EPA/play 0.28 to 0.07; the +0.20 differential supports a road-side margin edge.
    • Five-game net EPA/play still favors Las Vegas by 0.15, despite including three 2025 games.
    • The efficiency sample is only two 2026 games, and the five-game window mixes seasons.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair spread: Saints -1.0; Raiders +3.5 cover probability estimated at 58%.
    • Raiders defense: -0.30 EPA/play to date versus New Orleans' -0.06.
    • Only two current-season games feed the strongest EPA inputs, so the estimate has substantial small-sample risk.
  2. Las Vegas Raiders spread +2.52 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, ProphetX NFL Ladder
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Raiders defense is -0.30 EPA/play versus New Orleans defense at -0.06; model gives the underdog a modest cover lift.
    • Only two current-season games per team; the partial-sample model is volatile.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
      • The most likely loss is New Orleans winning by 3 or more; the +2.5 rung has no push protection.
    • New Orleans Saints −3.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Fade Stephen A. Smith
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX Pairs
      • ProphetX prices Saints moneyline -172 (63.24¢) but Saints -3.5 at +106 (48.54¢), an unusually favorable related-market relationship.
      • New Orleans has the stronger current offensive profile: +0.01 offensive EPA/play vs Las Vegas -0.02.
      • Raiders defense is materially better in the feature set: -0.30 defensive EPA/play allowed vs New Orleans -0.06.
      Fade Stephen A. Smith
      • Stephen A. Smith's recent First Take segment is titled: "Raiders will beat Saints to improve to 3-0."
      • This is a specific, auditable Week 3 game call, not a season narrative, and it was posted one day before kickoff.
      • The Saints must win by four; a Saints win by 1, 3 still loses the spread.
    • Under total 37.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PARTIAL tier: Kirk Cousins and Tyler Shough are confirmed active starters; each team has only 2 current-season games.
      • Both defenses grade positively by EPA: LV -0.30 and NO -0.06; the model's modest lower-total tilt is reinforced by NO's 27.55-second pace.
      • Derived reference rather than a same-rung Pinnacle quote; the distribution shift can be wrong.
    • Under total 42.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    • Las Vegas Raiders spread over 3.5Long shot
      +285%Won

      Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Key-mass anchor from 2016-2025 regular/postseason margin histogram: p_anchor(LV wins by >3.5) 27.1%; adjusted p_model 28.4% after a 1.0-point LV margin tilt from the defensive-efficiency/personnel ledger.
      • Only two current-season games per team, so coverage is Partial rather than Full; early efficiency is volatile.
    Show all 35 picks
    1. First-half total under 20.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is level at 7 days each; the total lean is driven by the Raiders' -0.30 defensive EPA allowed and the Saints' modest +0.01 offensive EPA.
      • Pinnacle's 44.0 full-game total gives 22.0 at a flat half; applying the matchup adjustment rather than halving blindly yields a 20.0, 20.5 first-half reference.
      • No rest mismatch: both teams have 7 days, so there is no scripted-freshness advantage to reinforce the under.
    2. Las Vegas Raiders first-half winner
      +163%Won

      Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is neutral: Raiders 7 days, Saints 7 days; the edge comes from efficiency, not a rest mismatch.
      • to-date: Raiders composite net EPA is +0.28 (-0.02 offense minus -0.30 defense) versus Saints +0.07, a +0.20 Raiders gap.
      • Pinnacle has New Orleans -3.5 full game; the possession/efficiency adjustment makes the derived first-half Raiders win estimate 43%, not a flat full-game split.
      • No rest advantage: the brief's strongest lever is absent, leaving an early-season efficiency read to carry the position.
    3. Game 3Q total over 9.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Prior two-game samples show 11.5 Saints and 12.0 Raiders drives per game; roughly 5.9 combined quarter possessions.
      • Raiders offense and Saints offense average 2.15 and 2.38 points per drive pregame; fitted Q3 mean is about 11, 12 points.
      • The 3Q is a semi-scripted halftime-adjustment period, more projectable than the game-state-dominated fourth quarter.
      • Only about 5, 6 combined possessions make quarter variance wide; one empty trip can lose.
    4. New Orleans Saints 1Q winner
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Saints own +0.01 offensive EPA/play versus Raiders +0.02? negative: LV is -0.02; the matchup favors New Orleans' opening script.
      • Season-to-date points per drive: Saints 2.38 versus Raiders 2.15 across the current two-game sample.
      • QB gate cleared: Kirk Cousins and Tyler Shough are both slot-rank-1 depth-chart starters; Aidan O'Connell and Zach Wilson are ESPN-live Out.
      • A quarter has roughly 5-6 combined possessions; one explosive play, turnover, or red-zone stall can decide the winner.
    5. Under 43.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Raiders and Saints average -0.02 and +0.01 offensive EPA/play through two regular-season games; Las Vegas defense allows -0.30 EPA/play.
      • Current-season pace averages 31.85 seconds/play for Las Vegas and 27.55 for New Orleans, supporting a slower environment.
      • Kirk Cousins and Tyler Shough are confirmed starters; Brock Bowers and Chris Olave are not on the official inactive list.
      • New Orleans has a 0.10 explosive-play rate and can clear this number with a few chunk gains.
    6. New Orleans Saints first-half winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Saints lead 6-3 with 0:50 left in the first quarter, giving the live first-half position a current-state anchor.
      • New Orleans averaged 2.38 points per drive through two games versus Las Vegas's 2.15; the Saints' matchup efficiency is the better side.
      • First-half margin dispersion scales with the square root of expected drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance; that keeps this half-win probability above a simple 50% split.
      • The 6-3 lead is only one score and roughly 14 minutes remain in the half; one explosive play can reverse the position.
    7. Game second-half total over 20.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fitted second-half mean: 22.0 points versus a 20.5 threshold priced at 53¢.
      • Raiders/Saints average 137.5 combined plays; current points per drive are 2.15 and 2.38.
      • Square-root scaling gives a half-game total SD near 9.86, not a linearly halved 6.98.
      • Only two 2026 games per team; EPA, pace, and points-per-drive estimates are thin.
    8. New Orleans Saints −10.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

      Long OddsNew model
      Why it likes it
      • At the same deep rung, Raiders +10.5 is 81.1% ladder-implied; interpolating +9.5 and +13.5 gives about 77.7%, making the safety-priced dog side rich.
      • DraftKings +400 and FanDuel +390 on Saints -10.5 devig to roughly 18.8%-19.1%, aligning with the fade of the Raiders +10.5 contract.
      • This is a live halftime board at 6-3; a single second-half score can move the full-game margin distribution sharply.
    9. Tyler Shough under 253.5 passing yards
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NO pass block 57.7 vs LV pass-rush 81.5; matchup card shows 29 pressures allowed and 4 sacks.
      • Shough faced pressure on 22 dropbacks in Week 1 and 5 in Week 2; pressure-sack rates were 22.7% and 20.0%.
      • NO has produced 102 Shough dropbacks in two games and carries a 58.7% pass rate with +17.1% PROE.
    10. New Orleans Saints under 23.5 team points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • LV defense is -0.30 EPA/play to date; NO offense is only +0.01 EPA/play.
      • NO points per drive: 2.21 and 2.56; two-game sample centers near 2.38.
      • Indoor Caesars Superdome removes live-wind uncertainty; fitted matchup band is below 23.5.
      • Only two regular-season games make the -0.30 LV defensive EPA estimate fragile.
    11. Kirk Cousins under 2 passing touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kirk is the Raiders' confirmed QB1 with a 100% snap share through two games; no unresolved player is ahead of him.
      • Raiders have produced 7 red-zone trips and 5 conversions in two games; Jeanty's 77.1% snap share and workhorse label concentrate goal-line equity in the run game.
      • the live ladder prices Kirk 1+ pass TD at 75¢ but 2+ at 39¢; the executable 2+ NO side is 62¢.
      • Kirk can reach two passing touchdowns without many red-zone drives through long completions or short-field possessions.
    12. Ashton Jeanty 1+ touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 77.1% snap share and a workhorse role; current depth chart lists Jeanty RB1 with no unresolved back ahead of him.
      • Las Vegas has converted 5 of 7 red-zone trips through two games; New Orleans has allowed opponents 5 scores on 7 trips.
      • Venue self-reference: the board is pricing a highly concentrated lead-back role, not a sportsbook touchdown number.
      • Only two games of red-zone data; seven opportunities is a thin sample.
    13. Game total under 49Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 49 pushes at exactly 49 total points; the adjacent under 48.5 loses at 49.
      • A total of 50 or more loses; this is not a projection that the game will finish below 49.
    14. New Orleans Saints spread −3 (push at exactly 3)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Saints -3 pushes on a 3-point win; adjacent Saints -3.5 loses on that same margin.
      • ProphetX quotes Saints -3 at -119 (54.34¢) versus -3.5 at +106 (48.54¢): only a 5.80¢ premium for whole-number protection.
      • point Saints win pushes this contract; it returns capital rather than producing a win.
    15. Las Vegas Raiders spread +2
      +144%Won

      Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are 3 versus 3; the core two measures agree, while the third is neutral.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate the Raiders read: 3 levels each.
    16. Game total over 45
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels tie 3, 3, so the third measure does not corroborate or weaken the two-measure read.
      • REFERENCE only; no independent sharp reference validates the order-flow interpretation.
    17. Travis Etienne Jr. rushing yards under 40.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −109 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 35.5 rushing yards per game through two starts, 12.3% below the 40.5 line.
      • Etienne produced only 46 and 25 rushing yards on 9 and 8 attempts.
      • Raiders' defense owns a -0.30 defensive EPA/play through two games, a favorable under matchup.
      • A long run can defeat an under quickly, especially if New Orleans reaches the red zone often.
    18. Tyler Shough pass attempts over 33.5
      +98%Won

      Taken at −102 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 45.0 attempts per game through two starts, 34.3% above the 33.5 line.
      • Shough attempted 56 and 34 passes in Weeks 1-2; both cleared this number.
      • New Orleans posted 70.7% and 58.7% pass rates in its first two games.
      • Two-game sample is thin, and the Raiders defense has a strong -0.30 defensive EPA/play to date.
    19. Las Vegas Raiders first-half spread over 2.5
      +194%Won

      Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • LV defensive EPA/play is -0.30 versus New Orleans at -0.06, a +0.24 LV defensive edge.
      • Pinnacle full-game line is NO -3.5; a scripted 55% first-half share gives about NO +1.9 before the LV defensive adjustment.
      • the spread lean agrees with the existing Raiders first-half winner and first-half under positions; winner and total are already closed markets.
      • No rest edge: both teams have seven rest days, so the brief's strongest lever is absent.
    20. Ashton Jeanty over 3.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −144 on FanDuel

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6.5 targets and 5.0 receptions per game through two regular-season games.
      • Snap share rose from 73.5% to 81.0%; route snaps increased from 20 to 25.
      • Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs, supporting pass-game usage if New Orleans leads.
      • A positive Raiders game script could shift Jeanty's workload toward rushing attempts.
    21. Las Vegas Raiders to win
      +160%Won

      Taken at +160 on DraftKings

      Brewing NFL MlDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Raiders defense: -0.30 EPA/play allowed through Week 2 vs Saints -0.06.
      • Trench cross-match favors Las Vegas: Raiders OL allowed 18 pressures and DL generated 38; Saints were 29 and 30.
      • Cousins has a 9.5% pressure-to-sack rate versus Shough's 23.5%; both named starters are accounted for.
      • New Orleans has the home field and a 2.38 points-per-drive rate versus Las Vegas at 2.15.
    22. game 1H total under 21.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 19.5 first-half points versus 21.5; 2.0-point line discrepancy.
      • Naive half of the 43.5 full-game total is 21.75; derivation divergence is 2.25 points.
      • Prior four first halves averaged 16.75 combined points; LV opened TD/INT, while NO opened punt/punt.
      • LV and NO current points-per-drive figures are 2.15 and 2.38; New Orleans' 12.2% explosive rate can beat a low total.
    23. New Orleans Saints spread −3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The same ProphetX board prices Saints moneyline -174, versus only 49.3% implied for the -3.5 spread.
      • Saints offense is +0.01 EPA/play; Raiders defense allows -0.30 EPA/play through two games.
      • Prior-season blend also favors New Orleans: LV offense -0.17 EPA/play versus NO -0.11 in 2025.
      • Week 3 coverage is only two games per team, so this is capped at LEAN.
    24. Total Points under 45.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • LV defense -0.30 EPA/play faces NO offense +0.01; both figures use two 2026 games.
      • Opposite matchup is also defense-led: LV offense -0.02 versus NO defense -0.06 EPA/play.
      • QB gate cleared at 6:02am: depth chart lists active Kirk Cousins and Tyler Shough; Aidan O'Connell is out.
      • Only two completed 2026 games each; the prior-season blend is required and caps this at LEAN.
    25. New Orleans Saints to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

      Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sep. 24 First Take clip: Smith says “3-0 Is Coming!” and backs the Raiders to handle New Orleans.
      • This is the direct opposite: Saints win the specific Week 3 game.
      • The market already makes New Orleans a clear home favorite, so the fade has no demonstrated model edge.
    26. Las Vegas Raiders first team to score a touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Raiders have 7 red-zone trips and 5 conversions; Saints have 7 opponent red-zone trips and 5 touchdowns allowed.
      • Las Vegas concentrates backfield opportunity in Jeanty: 77.1% snaps, workhorse label, and RB1 depth-chart status.
      • the Raiders' concentrated goal-line path is stronger than the matchup's 45¢ first-TD price suggests.
      • First touchdown depends materially on coin toss, opening script, and field position; those inputs are unresolved at this wake.
    27. Game total under 43.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on FanDuel

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model estimate: 57.5% under versus FanDuel -105 break-even 51.2%, a +6.3-point edge.
      • Raiders defense allows -0.30 EPA/play through two games; Saints offense is only +0.01 EPA/play.
      • Saints defense allows -0.06 EPA/play; Raiders offense is -0.02 EPA/play with a 43.5% success rate.
      • Both teams have produced high early-season scoring: Las Vegas 26.5 and New Orleans 27.0 points per game.
    28. Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints total under 43.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −102 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model fair total: 40.5 points; under 43.5 estimated at 56%.
      • Raiders allowed 14 points in each of their first two games; their current defensive EPA is -0.30/play.
      • The matchup teams' four 2026 totals are 40, 40, 41, and 61; three of four are below 43.5.
      • The total model is built on two games per team, and the Saints' 61-point Week 1 total shows a wide scoring range.
    29. Game total under 45.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3 of 4 current-season Raiders/Saints team-game totals finished below 45.5: 40, 40, 41, and 61.
      • current form shows modest combined offense: Raiders +0.00 and Saints +0.01 EPA/play through two games.
      • sportsbooks center at 43.5; ProphetX offers a two-point cushion above that reference.
      • Week 3 is only a two-game sample per team; the 61-point Saints-Lions game widens the range.

    Questions

    Who won Raiders vs. Saints?

    The Raiders won 35-27 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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