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FinalRaymond James Stadium
Vikings2-0
23–16Final
Buccaneers0-2
Score by period
Team1234T
MIN1070623
TB733316

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 42.5 50¢

Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 112 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-10 on this game · +33% return

  1. Minnesota Vikings to win5 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsProphetX Pairs, Brewing NFL Ml +3
    Why 5 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • EPA form: Minnesota net EPA/play is 0.13 versus Tampa Bay -0.10 from the pregame features.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Vikings' official team article says Kyler Murray cleared protocol and will start; current depth chart lists him QB1.
    • Tier 2 Partial: Week 3 supplies only two completed current-season games, so the EPA sample is thin.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • PIT net EPA/play is +0.13 for Minnesota versus -0.10 for Tampa Bay; turnover-regressed model still favors Minnesota.
    • Minnesota's defensive front leads the trench matchup: 10.1% pass-rush win rate and 45 pressures versus Tampa Bay's 6.7% and 20.
    • Kyler has only 5 regular-season pass attempts in the current feed; his CPOE/pressure sample is too thin, so the model uses a team-passing fallback.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Last-10 net EPA/play: Minnesota +0.14 versus Tampa Bay -0.05, a +0.19 differential.
    • Current PIT features show Minnesota defense EPA/play allowed -0.16 versus Tampa Bay +0.13.
    • The 10-game window includes 2025; the 2026 sample contains only two games per team.
    Long Way Home
    • MIN’s defense is -0.16 EPA/play to date versus TB’s +0.13, a 0.29-play gap.
    • Offensive output is close by points per drive (MIN 1.96, TB 1.97), making the defensive separation the matchup swing.
    • The projection uses only two 2026 games, so Minnesota’s defensive EPA edge is highly sample-sensitive.
  2. Under total 42.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  3. Minnesota Vikings spread 7.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  4. First-half total over 20.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Same-rung 20.5: the 22.8 projection clears the Kalshi threshold by 2.3 points.
    • Pace is adequate: Tampa Bay 30.77 versus Minnesota 32.26 seconds per play; combined pace is 63.02.
    • Points per drive is balanced but productive: Tampa Bay 1.97, Minnesota 1.96; both quarterbacks cleared the gate.
    • No rest mismatch: both teams have seven days, removing the brief’s strongest first-half lever.
  5. Minnesota Vikings spread −1
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating 53.0% Vikings -1 versus Pinnacle devigged 48.8%; gap 4.2 points.
    • Vikings defensive EPA-to-date is -0.16 versus Tampa Bay's +0.13, a 0.29/play defensive differential.
    • Kyler Murray is officially cleared and starting; Baker Mayfield completed full practices, resolving the quarterback gate.
    • Tampa Bay leads current offensive EPA-to-date (+0.03 to Minnesota's -0.03) and success rate (.505 to .423), both against this side.
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 48% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota Luck Score +0.63 vs Tampa Bay -0.30: 0.93 gap clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary luck: Minnesota +0.28 vs Tampa Bay -0.45, a 0.73 gap versus the 0.20 trigger.
    • Minnesota produced +2 fumble-recovery luck and a +1 interception-differential fallback; Tampa Bay was -1.5 on fumble luck.
    • Both teams have only two 2026 regular-season games; every luck component is an early-season small sample.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Minnesota Vikings first-half winnerFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIN’s to-date defense is materially better: -0.16 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Tampa Bay’s +0.13.
    • Pace inputs are 30.77 seconds/play for Tampa Bay and 32.26 for Minnesota; the fitted half-margin spread scales with the square root of expected drives, not a linear half of full-game variance.
    • Only three 2026 regular-season games inform the team efficiency inputs; the sample is thin.
  2. Minnesota Vikings first-half spread +2.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup blend favors Minnesota: MIN offense -0.03 plus TB defensive EPA allowed 0.13 versus TB offense 0.03 plus MIN defense -0.16.
    • Current-season pace is 30.77, 32.26 seconds per play with 58, 60 plays per game; the fitted first-half mean is roughly Minnesota +1.8 points.
    • Square-root scaling: half-margin standard deviation is scaled by the square root of half-drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance; model cover probability is about 66, 68%.
    • A modest roughly 1.8-point mean can be overwhelmed by one explosive play, turnover, or early red-zone miss.
  3. Game second-half total over 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the live board has 1H 21.5 plus 2H 21.5 against a 42.5 full-game total; the late-half share is underpriced.
    • Current points per drive are 1.96 for Minnesota and 1.98 for Tampa Bay, with 58 and 60 offensive plays per game to date.
    • My fitted split is approximately 20.3 first-half points and 22.2 second-half points, versus a 21.5 line priced at 47c for over.
    • Second-half scoring is conditional on halftime score and play-calling; the to-date averages cannot model that state dependence.
  4. Aaron Jones over 52.5 rushing yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share jumped from 46.2% to 89.7%; Jones handled 23 carries in Week 2.
    • Jordan Mason is on injured reserve, removing the main early-down competitor.
    • Tampa Bay's pregame defensive EPA allowed is +0.13, materially softer than Minnesota's -0.16.
    • Tampa Bay's five-game defensive EPA allowed is -0.02, better than its season-to-date feature.
  5. Minnesota Vikings spread −1.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    NFL Trench MismatchDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Primary pass-trench edge is +0.89 weighted points: Minnesota about +0.53 versus Tampa Bay about -0.36, clearing the +0.25 trigger.
    • Minnesota has allowed 12 pressures versus the 2026 NFL average of 18.9; Tampa Bay has allowed 19, a +1.20 z pressure-protection edge for Minnesota.
    • Tampa Bay has produced 20 pressures versus a 29.4 average; Minnesota has produced 45, a +3.01 opponent-pressure z edge for Minnesota.
    • Only two 2026 regular-season games are charted, so pressure, sack and rushing inputs are small-sample.
  6. Bucky Irving under 57.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Official reports verify Tampa Bay has no listed offensive-line absences; Irving is confirmed active by the live prop roster.
    • TB run-block grade is 43.1 versus Minnesota run-defense grade 65.7, a clear run-side trench disadvantage.
    • Irving posted -1.47 rush yards over expected on 17 Week 2 carries; 0% of those attempts faced eight-plus defenders.
    • Irving averaged 67 rushing yards across Tampa's two losses, so one explosive run can clear 57.5.
  7. Minnesota Vikings −4.5 spread NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live full-game spread rungs imply Vikings -4.5 YES near 42%, versus board YES 55%.
    • That is a 13-point disagreement; buying NO moves the outlier toward the neighboring ladder consensus.
    • Anchors agreed: nearby spread rungs and the 50.5, 54.5 total ladder were monotonic before pricing this outlier.
    • The fit is self-referential and approximate; a live repricing may reflect information not yet propagated across rungs.
  8. Minnesota Vikings first-half team total over 10.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota offense is -0.03 EPA/play; Tampa Bay defense allows +0.13 EPA/play, a +0.09 matchup differential.
    • Minnesota has 1.96 points per drive through Week 2, and official team news confirms Kyler Murray starts.
    • The board looks mechanically derived: both first-half team totals are 10.5 despite a 42.5 game total and Tampa -1.5 spread.
    • Regular-season form is only a two-game sample; EPA and points per drive are noisy.
  9. Minnesota Vikings spread +3
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • sportsbooks make Minnesota roughly a 1.5-point favorite while ProphetX offers +3.
    • Minnesota defense is -0.16 EPA/play allowed to date; Tampa Bay is +0.13, a major matchup-side gap.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins by 4+ after Kyler Murray struggles in his return from concussion.
  10. Justin Jefferson first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +850 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13% model estimate; FanDuel +850 implies 10.5%; fair price +669.
    • Jefferson has 4 red-zone targets, including 1 inside-10 target, in Minnesota's first two games.
    • Jefferson owns a 94.7% snap share, 91.5% route rate, and 15 targets through two games.
    • Minnesota's 5 red-zone trips are a tiny sample, and Jefferson has only one inside-10 target.
  11. Minnesota Vikings first team to score a touchdown
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota converted 4 of 5 red-zone trips; Tampa Bay allowed opponents 3 touchdowns on 8 red-zone trips.
    • Kyler Murray is officially active and presumed to start; Aaron Jones is the Vikings' committee-lead RB at 59.6% snap share.
    • The near-coin-flip board leaves room for Minnesota's red-zone conversion and backfield usage edge.
    • The red-zone rates cover only two games: five Minnesota offensive trips and eight Tampa defensive trips.
  12. Bucky Irving touchdowns 1+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bucky is Tampa Bay's declared RB1 and workhorse; season snap share is 64.0%.
    • TB's +0.03 offensive EPA/play and +0.12 PROE versus Minnesota's -0.03 and -0.02 provide modest script support; a lead would favor run-heavy goal-line usage.
    • Only two games of red-zone data: TB has 8 attempts and 3 conversions, a thin sample.
  13. Minnesota Vikings −1.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Our fair cover estimate is 56.5%; FanDuel -104 breaks even at 51.0% (+5.5 points).
    • Minnesota’s 2026 defense allows -0.16 EPA/play versus Tampa Bay’s +0.13 allowed.
    • Minnesota is 2-0 with a +23 point differential; Tampa Bay is 0-2 at -10.
    • The efficiency inputs cover only two regular-season games, so the fair-cover estimate has meaningful sample risk.
  14. Game total under 40 (push at exactly 40)
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quoted under 40 at +134 versus under 40.5 at +129; the whole-rung price gap is only 5 American points.
    • Only exactly 40 pushes; totals 39 or below win, 41 or above lose.
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • exact 3-point Tampa win pushes -3; the adjacent -3.5 loses.
    • ProphetX -3 is +162 (38.17¢) versus +184 (35.21¢) at -3.5, only a 2.96-point implied-probability gap.
    • No independent sharp reference was used; the price comparison is ProphetX venue self-reference only.
  16. Minnesota Vikings spread −3
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing Minnesota Vikings -3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures support the read: book_levels do not corroborate, tied 3-3.
  17. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are over 3 versus under 3; the first two measures agree, while levels do not corroborate.
    • The venue self-reference is not an independent statistical or sharp-book confirmation.
  18. Game total over 41.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.02 combined plays/game (MIN 32.26, TB 30.77) from the current 2026 feature row; both teams have 7 rest days.
    • ProphetX full-game 41.5 is below the 42.0 midpoint implied by team totals 20.5 + 21.5 and 2x first-half 21.
    • Game-day identity check: Minnesota's official inactive page confirms Kyler Murray starts with Carson Wentz behind him; Tampa's Baker Mayfield status is full practice with no game-day inactive designation.
    • Minnesota's current PFF-linked defensive profile shows 45 pressures versus Tampa's 20; pressure-driven stalled drives can keep this below 42.
  19. Justin Jefferson fantasy points over 16.9
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi rules: 1 point per reception, 0.1 per receiving yard, 6 per receiving TD.
    • Blended PPR forecast is 17.5 points, 0.6 above the 16.9 contract line.
    • Jefferson owns a 35.4% target share and 94.7% snap share through two games.
    • Only two 2026 games; target and efficiency samples are thin.
  20. Total Points under 45.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current 2-game sample: MIN offense -0.03 EPA/play versus TB defense +0.13 allowed; TB offense +0.03 versus MIN defense -0.16.
    • Prior-season 17-game blend tempers the tiny sample: MIN offense -0.05 EPA/play and TB offense +0.00; MIN defense allowed -0.09.
    • Official Vikings reporting says Kyler Murray cleared protocol and will start; Baker Mayfield's latest official practice status is full participation.
    • Only two 2026 games per team, below the three-game coverage threshold; this is a LEAN using prior-season blend.
  21. Minnesota Vikings spread +1
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX makes Minnesota -109 on the moneyline while pricing Minnesota +1 at -116.
    • Minnesota's 2026 defense is -0.16 EPA/play allowed versus Tampa Bay's +0.13, through 2 games.
    • Minnesota's offense is -0.03 EPA/play versus Tampa Bay's +0.03; both teams have 7 rest days and the game is not neutral.
    • LEAN only: each team has just 2 current-season games, so the efficiency sample is below the 3-game coverage threshold.
  22. Game total under 42
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota and Tampa Bay posted negative Week-2 offensive EPA/play: -0.10 and -0.08.
    • Week-2 success rates were only 42.6% and 45.5%; explosive-play rates were 13.0% and 12.1%.
    • Pinnacle supports the low-scoring direction at under 43 (-117); the main-board under is 42.5 (-105 to -108).
    • Most likely loss: an early turnover creates short fields and one offense pushes the game above 42.

Questions

Who won Vikings vs. Buccaneers?

The Vikings won 23-16 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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