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FinalEverBank Stadium
Patriots1-1
6–35Final
Jaguars1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
NE03036
JAX01414735

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jacksonville Jaguars to win −158

Why Brewing NFL Ml likes it: Last-five opponent-adjusted offense: Jacksonville +0.10 EPA/play versus New England -0.19; success rate 52.0% versus 41.4%.

Brewing NFL MlDown 5% this season · 66 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 33-5 on this game · +66% return

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars to win11 models agreeHigh conviction
    +63%Won

    Taken at −158 on FanDuel

    11 modelsBrewing NFL Ml, Key Number +9
    Why 11 models like it
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Last-five opponent-adjusted offense: Jacksonville +0.10 EPA/play versus New England -0.19; success rate 52.0% versus 41.4%.
    • Trevor Lawrence leads Drake Maye 77.2 to 50.2 in 2026 PFF passing grade; weighted CPOE is about +7.5% versus +3.2%.
    • New England's defense is stronger by recent EPA allowed: -0.19 versus Jacksonville -0.10; that can keep the Patriots live.
    Key Number
    • Current form: JAX +0.09 offensive EPA/play, 55.2% success, 2.61 points/drive; NE: -0.11, 45.9%, 1.15.
    • Both starting QBs were confirmed at 6:02 PDT; no load-bearing skill-position absence was identified in the latest game-day feed.
    • Only two current-season games per team, so coverage is Partial rather than Full.
    Drift
    • Power rating 62.0%; Jacksonville matchup blend is +0.08 EPA/play over New England.
    • Jaguars lead current success rate 55.2%, 45.9% and explosive rate 12.9%, 9.9%; two games each.
    • Only two regular-season games per team; early-season efficiency is noisy.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
    • JAX leads two-game form: offensive EPA 0.09 vs NE -0.11, success 55.2% vs 45.9%, points/drive 2.61 vs 1.15.
    • Only two current-season games; partial coverage makes the 62.5% model estimate sensitive to early-season variance.
  2. Game total under 46.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsPace Ledger, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Ledger
    • ProphetX's full-game 46.5 is 1.5 points above its team-total sum, Jaguars 23.5 plus Patriots 21.5.
    • ProphetX's first-half total is 21.5; doubling it gives 43.0, 3.5 points below the full-game rung.
    • The 1.5-point gap versus team-total lines is modest; team totals are not guaranteed to add to the game total.
    Long Way Home
    • Jacksonville's defense is allowing -0.12 EPA/play; New England's defense is also at -0.15 EPA/play allowed.
    • One explosive-play game or short-field turnovers can overwhelm the defensive profile and clear 46.5.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars −32 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, NFL baby
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Exact rule: Jaguars -3 pushes if Jacksonville wins by exactly 3; it wins by 4+ and loses by 0-2 or a Patriots win.
    • A three-point Jacksonville win only pushes, returning stake rather than producing profit; value requires the non-push outcomes to perform as the paired price implies.
    NFL baby
    • Net efficiency: Jacksonville +0.21 versus New England +0.04 EPA/play, a +0.17 gap.
    • Jacksonville leads current points per drive 2.61 to 1.15; the derived margin clears the 2.5-point threshold.
    • The efficiency sample is only two 2026 games; a small-sample estimate can overstate Jacksonville's advantage.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −32 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Sunday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • book_levels are Jacksonville 3 and New England 3; this third measure is neutral, while the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing qualifies the read.
    • Directional check: backing Jacksonville Jaguars -3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp reference or projection; the hypothesis may have no repeatable edge.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • ProphetX prices Jacksonville -150 on the moneyline, yet Jacksonville -3 is +101; the spread rung is unusually generous relative to its own ML.
    • Jacksonville's 2026 offense is +0.09 EPA/play versus New England's -0.11 through two games; PFF offense grades are 78.6 versus 61.4.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville wins by one or two, or New England wins outright, so the -3 fails despite the ML signal.
  5. New England Patriots exact margin 7-12Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle spread is Jacksonville -2.5 (-116), providing the smooth baseline center.
    • Jacksonville is the sharp-reference favorite, so this underdog tail needs the key-number reweighting to be right.
  6. New England Patriots spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game spread ladder was read untruncated; Patriots +1.5 and Jaguars -1.5 were both quoted, with status OPEN and tradable true.
    • Jacksonville's current offense is +0.09 EPA/play with a 33.50-second pace versus New England at -0.11 EPA/play and 31.15 pace.
Show all 25 picks
  1. Under total 45.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both defenses posted negative EPA allowed: Jacksonville -0.12, New England -0.15 per play.
    • New England offense is -0.11 EPA/play and 1.15 points per drive; Jacksonville pace is 33.49 seconds/play.
    • Key-number mass computed from 2,792 regular/postseason games; Jacksonville weather is sunny, 7-mph wind, no rain.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville's offense is efficient at +0.09 EPA/play and 2.61 points per drive.
  2. Under 45.5 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current pace is 33.49 seconds/play for Jacksonville and 31.15 for New England; lower is faster, so both are slow by the ledger and support a total-down adjustment.
    • Dre'Mont Jones is out for New England and Albert Regis is doubtful for Jacksonville; defensive personnel uncertainty can lift scoring despite the adjustment.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half winner
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacksonville first-half -1.5 is offered around 43¢; covering -1.5 is a strict subset of winning the half, so the winner contract is misaligned below its board anchor.
    • Fresh 2026 inputs over three games: Jacksonville 1.74 points per drive and -0.02 offensive EPA/play versus New England 0.76 and -0.16.
    • The 2026 efficiency sample is only three games per team; early-season PPD and EPA are noisy.
  4. New England Patriots first-half spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • JAX full-game anchor is -2.5, while its 1H -2.5 contract costs 51¢; NE +2.5 costs 50¢.
    • Fresh features: JAX home offensive EPA +0.09 versus NE -0.11; defensive EPA allowed is -0.12 versus -0.15.
    • Half-drive pace is 33.50 seconds/play for JAX and 31.15 for NE; halving possessions does not halve margin variance.
    • The 2026 form inputs are an early, thin sample; the 2.61 versus 1.15 points-per-drive gap may regress.
  5. Game first-half total under 23.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: roughly 20, 21 first-half points from current pace (33.49/31.15 sec per play) and PPD (JAX 2.61, NE 1.15).
    • Both defenses are suppressing EPA: JAX -0.12 and New England -0.15 points per play allowed to date.
    • Internal coherence: 1H 23.5 plus 2H 23.5 totals 47, above the Polymarket US full-game 45.5 anchor; the 1H number is the mispriced leg.
    • 2026 PPD is only a two-game sample; JAX 2.61 and NE 1.15 can regress sharply.
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −7.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle wake reference: Jaguars -2.5 -116 / Patriots +2.5 +105; devigged Jaguars cover probability is 52.4%.
    • The 2,791-game key-number histogram gives p_anchor 32.9% at -7.5; a +1.0-point form adjustment gives p_model 35.7%.
    • Partial coverage: Week 3 provides only two current-season games for each team, below the four-game Full threshold.
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    CLV Sharp ATSDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jaguars recent offense EPA/play +0.06 versus New England -0.12; success rate 49.3% versus 42.6%.
    • EPA/success blend projects Jacksonville about 5.5 points, roughly 2.5 above the -3 consensus.
    • FanDuel offers Jacksonville -2.5 while the consensus is -3, crossing the primary key number 3.
    • The model relies on a small two-game current-season sample and a mixed 10-game window.
  8. New England Patriots team total under 23.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE offense is -0.11 EPA/play to date against Jacksonville defense at -0.12 EPA/play allowed.
    • New England has averaged about 10 drives per game but only 1.15 points per drive in the matchup inputs; its four-game red-zone sample is 1 conversion in 3 trips.
    • Only two games of 2026 team data make EPA, pace, and points-per-drive estimates noisy.
  9. Game total under 47
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NFL margin/total histogram: 47 points occurred 91 of 2,792 games (3.3%); the whole-number rung protects a key total.
    • Recent form is low-scoring: New England's last two totals were 23 and 23; Jacksonville's were 44 and 33.
    • Recent EPA form is negative for both offenses (-0.12 NE, -0.04 JAX) while both defenses rate positively (-0.07 and -0.16 EPA allowed.
    • Jacksonville's recent offense averaged 2.0 points per drive and produced a 12.1% explosive-play rate.
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars first touchdown
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection + internal coherence; venue self-reference at Polymarket US 55c, with no sharp granular reference.
    • JAX pregame offense: +0.09 EPA/play and 2.61 points/drive versus NE -0.11 and 1.15.
    • JAX converted 3 of 4 early red-zone trips; NE converted 1 of 3, a small but directionally supportive sample.
    • Red-zone sample is only four JAX trips and three NE trips through two games.
  11. Bhayshul Tuten touchdown over 1
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tuten has 28 carries, 131 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown through two games.
    • Live usage leaders show RB1, 49.6% snap share, and an early-down-hammer role; depth chart also lists him first.
    • Jacksonville has converted 3 of 4 red-zone trips; the Patriots have allowed 0 of 3, both tiny samples.
    • Chris Rodriguez still has a committee role: 30.8% snap share and 12 carries through two games.
  12. Drake Maye under 30.5 passing attempts
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 59% under probability versus 53.1% DraftKings break-even: +5.9 percentage points.
    • Maye averaged 27.5 attempts through two 2026 games; his 2025 regular-season average was 28.9.
    • New England's 2026 regular-season pass rate is 46.2%; its 10-game baseline is 52.1%, with a slow 31.15 seconds per offensive play.
    • The 2026 sample is only two games, and Jacksonville's 57.7 defensive grade does not indicate a dominant matchup.
  13. New England Patriots to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing New England Patriots, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is neutral: Patriots 3 versus Jaguars 3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
  14. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half to win
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is neutral: Jacksonville 7 days, New England 7 days; no short-week distortion.
    • Jacksonville's offense is +0.09 EPA/play to date versus New England at -0.11, a 0.20 gap.
    • Rest provides no positive differential; this is an efficiency play, not the brief's strongest rest angle.
  15. First-half total over 22.5 NO
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Jacksonville 7 days, New England 7; no mismatch, making this an efficiency/script play rather than a rest play.
    • JAX offense +0.09 EPA/play and NE offense -0.11; both defenses are negative EPA, supporting roughly 22.0, 22.3 first-half points.
    • JAX's favorite profile pairs with a weak NE offense and two strong defenses, not an over script.
    • Only a slight edge: quarter-Kelly is approximately 0.4% of bankroll, so this is LEAN-sized rather than RECOMMENDED.
  16. Parker Washington over 69.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80.0% snap share and 33 routes in Week 2, up from 61.4% and 18 routes in Week 1.
    • Washington has 181 receiving yards on 18 targets across two 2026 games; 69.5 is 77% of his 90.5-yard average.
    • PFF grades Washington at 90.2 in route play with 3.93 yards per route run, an elite early-season efficiency signal.
    • New England's defense has allowed -0.15 EPA/play through two games and carries a 62.3 coverage grade, so the matchup is not a clear plus.
  17. game 1H total under 23.5
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 20.5 first-half points, 3.0 below the 23.5 market line.
    • FanDuel's 45.5 full-game total implies 22.75 at a naive half split; projected divergence is 2.25 points.
    • The teams averaged 22 combined first-half points through Week 2; New England's 2026 points-per-drive marks were 1.11 and 1.18.
    • Jacksonville scored 24 first-half points in Week 1 and has the stronger recent offensive profile.
  18. Game total under 45.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects approximately 43.0 total points from last-10 scoring and opponent-allowed averages.
    • Last-10 points allowed: New England 15.0 per game; Jacksonville 16.7.
    • Both defenses show negative EPA allowed over the last 10: New England -0.17, Jacksonville -0.13.
    • Jacksonville's offense grades 78.6 overall and produced 2.49 points per drive in the recent sample.
  19. Total Points under 46.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample: NE pace 31.15 and JAX 33.49 seconds/play; neither offense projects fast.
    • current PROE is modest: NE 0.04, JAX 0.05; the read does not require a shootout.
    • current offense EPA is split, NE -0.11 versus JAX +0.09, not two efficient attacks.
    • Only 2 regular-season games per team; coverage is below the 3-game gate, so this is LEAN and prior-season blended.

Questions

Who won Patriots vs. Jaguars?

The Jaguars won 35-6 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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