Get app
FinalAcrisure Stadium
Bengals2-0
27–30Final
Steelers1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
CIN7103727
PIT1437630

Top model pick, graded

Won

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 spread 49¢

Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX prices PIT +3 at +105 versus adjacent PIT +3.5 at -118: 23 American-price points apart.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 15-16 on this game · −3% return

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.54 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    4 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, NFL Luck Regression +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Model EPA profile gives Pittsburgh a roughly 2.6-point matchup advantage before home field; Cincinnati's 2026 offense EPA edge is offset by Pittsburgh's stronger defense.
    • Pittsburgh's recent five-game defense allowed -0.12 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.17; the matchup is closer than the spread implies.
    • Pittsburgh's offense has produced only -0.18 EPA/play in the recent window and 0.38 success rate in the 2026 sample.
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Luck scores: Cincinnati +0.63 vs Pittsburgh -0.19; difference +0.82 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary luck: Cincinnati +0.44 vs Pittsburgh -0.41; difference +0.84 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • Only two completed regular-season games underpin every luck estimate; variance is extreme.
    Bills Belichicks
    • Mike McCarthy is the live Steelers head coach with 18 years' experience and a .608 regular-season win rate.
    • Zac Taylor's current Bengals tenure is 54-64 (.458) in the warehouse; the coaching gap is about 15 percentage points.
    • Pittsburgh has a -2 current turnover margin: 1 takeaway against 3 giveaways; Cincinnati is even at 1-1.
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread: Cincinnati -1.9; the consensus line is Cincinnati -3.5, a 1.6-point Steelers edge.
    • Pittsburgh's defense grades 75.2 overall and 85.3 in pass rush versus Cincinnati's 62.5 pass-block grade.
    • The line moved from Cincinnati -1.5 open to -3.5 current, and Pinnacle still makes Cincinnati -3 the sharp reference.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 spreadHigh conviction
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices PIT +3 at +105 versus adjacent PIT +3.5 at -118: 23 American-price points apart.
  3. First quarter ends levelFavorite
    +25%Won

    Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.58 Bengals +0.5 via the -0.5 contract’s NO side minus 0.43 Bengals -0.5 implies a 0.15 draw.
    • 94 period contracts screened; 10 placeholder quotes excluded; this quarter’s handicap ladder is monotone.
    • No independent sharp first-quarter three-way reference; this is venue self-reference only.
  4. Over total 45.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PARTIAL tier: both QBs are current depth-chart starters; key-number mass was recomputed this wake, but each team has only 2 current-season games.
    • Only two current-season games per team makes the PARTIAL form sample volatile rather than FULL coverage.
  5. Under 37.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EV_anchor +1.6%; EV_model +7.6%; derived-rung market gap 1.06p, and 37.5 is the best qualifying rung within seven points of 43.
    • Only two games per team makes the Partial-tier -0.75-point model adjustment volatile.
  6. CIN/PIT 3Q total over 7.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted mean is roughly 11 points: CIN 3.81 and PIT 1.58 points per drive, with pace supporting about two drives per team.
    • Adjusted 3Q game plan is closer to 1Q projectability than 4Q chaos; both starting QBs are active in live passing data.
    • This is a venue self-reference, not a sharp quarter-line comparison; the mechanism is the pace/PPD mismatch.
    • Only roughly 5-6 combined possessions are expected; quarter variance is materially wider than full-game variance.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Cincinnati Bengals to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 63.0% Bengals win probability from current-season EPA, success, explosiveness and points-per-drive inputs.
    • Bengals points per drive is 2.21 versus Pittsburgh's 0.63 through two games; both starting QBs are confirmed: Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers.
    • Pittsburgh has home field and a stronger current defense by defensive EPA allowed (-0.18 versus Cincinnati -0.05).
  2. Under total 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's 2026 regular-season offense is -0.29 EPA/play, 0.38 success rate, 0.08 explosive rate and 0.63 points per drive.
    • Cincinnati's offense is stronger at 0.10 EPA/play and 0.51 success rate, while Pittsburgh's defense is -0.18 EPA/play allowed; the matchup profile is low-scoring overall.
    • The efficiency sample is only two 2026 regular-season games and the feature snapshot was computed through September 20.
  3. Barrett Carter under 7.5 tackles + assists
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NB projection: 6.4 tackles + assists, 67% probability of staying under 7.5.
    • Six-game recent sample totals 8, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3; mean 4.8.
    • Four-game PFF snap baseline is approximately 95%, with about 9-point standard deviation.
    • The recent sample includes an 8-tackle game, so the distribution has meaningful right-tail variance.
  4. Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers second-half total under 24.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace inputs are 28.50 seconds/play (PIT) and 31.15 (CIN); the two-game PPD form is extreme at 0.63 PIT and 2.21 CIN, supporting a cautious lower 2H scoring fit after shrinkage.
    • Half variance scales with sqrt(drives), not linear halving: the 2H distribution is wider than a mechanically halved full-game distribution, but the 24.5 threshold remains above the fitted 20-22 point center.
    • Second-half scoring is conditional on halftime score, possession, and game script; the 2H projection is less reliable than the 1H projection.
  5. Tee Higgins over 52.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Higgins has 16 targets, 8 receptions, and 154 yards through two 2026 games; Week 2 rose to 10 targets and 95 yards.
    • His three-game receiving-yard sample is 67, 59, and 95; the 52.5 line is about 71% of the 73.7-yard mean.
    • PFF grades Higgins at 79.5 as a route-runner with 2.57 yards per route run in 2026.
    • The current-season usage sample is only two games; the third comparison is Cincinnati's 2025 Week 18 game.
  6. Over total 44.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati current form: +0.10 offensive EPA/play, 2.21 points/drive and .132 explosive rate versus Pittsburgh at -0.29, .625 and .082; model ledger adds 0.75 total points.
    • Only two current-season regular-season games per team, so this is Partial coverage rather than Full.
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers to win
    +154%Won

    Taken at +154 on DraftKings

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 48.7% calibrated home-win rate across 76 historical games in this feature bucket.
    • Bengals hold a 0.24 EPA/play net-efficiency edge over Pittsburgh across the last-10-game window.
    • Joe Burrow was reported healthy and off the injury report for Week 3 on September 23.
    • The current-season feature sample is only two games, so the 48.7% calibration is noisy.
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers under 22.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT offense is -0.29 EPA/play with 0.38 success rate and 0.63 points/drive.
    • PIT has WR Michael Pittman and RB Jaylen Warren questionable; Gennings Dunker and Rico Dowdle are officially out.
    • At 42.5 game total and Bengals -3.5, this TT ladder looks independently modeled/noisy rather than mechanically split.
    • Only two regular-season games inform PIT efficiency and points-per-drive.
  9. Game total under 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have 2026 offensive EPA/play of +0.10 and -0.29; both defenses are negative EPA allowed, favoring a lower-scoring script.
    • Pinnacle's captured reference is 43 under -113; the exchange's QB1 gate is met with Joe Burrow listed first on Cincinnati's depth chart at 6:02 AM PDT and no Out/Doubtful designation.
    • Joe Burrow remains listed Questionable in the latest injury surface, dated September 20; the depth-chart confirmation reduces but does not eliminate availability uncertainty.
  10. Tee Higgins over 50 receiving yards
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Higgins has 16 targets, 8 receptions and 154 yards across the first two games.
    • Joint game-total projection 42.8 versus the 42.5 market total passes the 1.5-point gate.
    • Two-game sample is below the brief's >3-game high-conviction bar.
  11. Game total under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-six double-weighted form: Cincinnati offense +0.08 EPA/play and Pittsburgh -0.15; both defenses allow negative EPA/play.
    • PIT's current feature row is -0.29 offensive EPA/play, 0.38 success rate and 0.63 points/drive.
    • Sharp market agrees: Pinnacle is Under 43 at -116; FanDuel offers the better 42.5 at -105.
    • Cincinnati's 0.13 explosive-play rate can clear the total through a few explosive passes.
  12. Ja'Marr Chase first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +600 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 17.5% estimated probability, fair price +471; FanDuel offers +600.
    • Cincinnati is +0.10 EPA/play, 50.5% success, 13.2% explosive rate and 2.21 points/drive through two games.
    • Cincinnati's 2025 baseline was also strong: +0.09 EPA/play, 47.2% success and 2.27 points/drive.
    • Only six Cincinnati red-zone trips: the red-zone sample and player-specific goal-line data are thin.
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers exact margin 14-20Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is Cincinnati -3 (-110), centering the margin model near Bengals +3.
    • The sharp spread favors Cincinnati by 3, so Pittsburgh winning by 14-20 is directionally adverse; the key-number reweight is the sole explanation for the tail.
  14. Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns under 3Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.63 pregame Steelers points per drive and -0.29 offensive EPA/play are weak baseline scoring inputs.
    • Steelers have 0 red-zone attempts and 0 red-zone touchdowns live despite one early 38-yard passing score.
    • Rodgers is the verified No. 1 quarterback, at 99.1% snap share; no unresolved player ahead creates a usage gate issue.
    • Rodgers already has one passing touchdown with 5:50 left in the first quarter; another fast score breaks the under.
  15. Chase Brown 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chase Brown is Cincinnati's declared RB1 and workhorse, with 72.6% snap share through two games
    • His RB room rank is 1; Samaje Perine is a pass-down satellite at 31.6% snap share and Tahj Brooks is depth
    • Small two-game red-zone sample; 3-for-3 conversion is highly noisy
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers under 19.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 56% under probability versus 49.5% FanDuel break-even: +6.5 percentage points.
    • Pittsburgh averages 11.5 points through two games, with 0.63 points per drive.
    • Steelers current-season offense averages -0.29 EPA/play and 38.4% success rate.
    • Two-game scoring sample is thin; Pittsburgh scored 20 in its opener and can regress upward.
  17. Game total under 43
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are under 3 versus over 3; two of three measures agree, with raw stakes large enough for the read.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
  18. Cincinnati Bengals first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CIN 2.21 vs PIT 0.63; CIN pace 31.15 vs PIT 28.50 supports scripted possessions.
    • Live state is 7-7 with 5:50 in Q1; Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers are depth-chart QB1s and active.
    • Rest gap 0 days: CIN 7, PIT 7; the strongest front-loaded freshness lever is absent.
  19. Cincinnati Bengals first-half wins by over 2.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 7 days vs. 7 days: no rest edge; the position is driven by the efficiency gap instead.
    • EPA gap: Cincinnati offense +0.10 vs. Pittsburgh -0.29, a +0.39 EPA/play advantage; success rate is 0.50 vs. 0.38.
    • Model projection is Cincinnati -3.0 with approximately 53% cover probability: a modest PROJECTION edge, not a recommended-grade discrepancy.
    • No rest mismatch: the brief's strongest first-half lever is absent.
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers 1Q to win
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bengals and Steelers are confirmed AFC North divisional opponents; both warehouse standings rows carry AFC conference group 8.
    • The first-quarter market prices Pittsburgh as the underdog, matching the brief's required divisional-underdog setup.
    • Pittsburgh scored 0, 3, 0, 0, 3 in its last five games' first quarters: only 1.2 PPG, below the 4.0 scripted-scoring threshold.
  21. Cincinnati Bengals spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati's offensive success rate is 50.5% versus Pittsburgh's 38.4% through September 20.
    • Cincinnati's defense also rates better by EPA/play allowed: -0.06 versus Pittsburgh's -0.18.
    • Steelers home field and a divisional matchup can compress the true margin.
  22. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • regular-season data: Pittsburgh averages 0.63 points per drive and -0.29 offensive EPA/play through two games.
    • Pittsburgh's 0.08 explosive-play rate and Cincinnati's 31.15-second pace point toward fewer clean scoring possessions.
    • Cincinnati's offense is efficient at 0.10 EPA/play, but the Steelers defense allows -0.18 EPA/play; low Pittsburgh output is the key projection.
    • The Bengals' 2.21 points per drive can carry the game over if Pittsburgh's offense improves sharply.

Questions

Who won Bengals vs. Steelers?

The Steelers won 30-27 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.