Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Final Score & Model Picks

FinalHard Rock Stadium

Chiefs2-0

24–10Final

Dolphins0-2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
KC	7	7	0	10	24
MIA	7	0	3	0	10

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kansas City Chiefs to win −550

Why PickEm likes it: Last-six net EPA/play: Kansas City +0.05 versus Miami -0.41, a +0.46 matchup differential.

PickEmDown 12% this season · 17 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 30-9 on this game · +94% return

Kansas City Chiefs −104 models agree
+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
4 modelshigh-confidence main markets, NFL Spread Detective +2
Why 4 models like it
high-confidence main markets
- Current-season EPA/play averages: KC offense +0.13 and defense allowed -0.14 versus Miami offense -0.20 and defense allowed +0.22.
- PFF team grades favor Kansas City 84.7 to 57.5, with a 20.9-point offense-grade gap and 19.2-point defense-grade gap.
- Kansas City allowed 30 points last week, creating late-game and backdoor-cover variance.
NFL Spread Detective
- KC EPA strategy score 0.63 vs Miami -1.08; full EPA edge +1.71.
- Primary EPA score: KC 0.38 vs Miami -0.62; primary edge +1.00.
- Only two current-season games per team; early-season z-scores are volatile.
NFL baby
- Kansas City offense +0.12 and defense allowed -0.14; Miami sits at -0.20 and +0.22.
- Action Network snapshot showed Miami at 87% of spread bets but 13% of money; the spread moved toward KC from -9.5 to -10.
- Only two regular-season games are in the sample; the EPA gap is noisy and not opponent-adjusted.
Number Earned
- Model fair line: Kansas City -12.0; estimated cover probability 55.5% versus 51.9% breakeven at -108.
- Points per drive favors Kansas City 2.79 to 1.40, while the team-grade gap is 84.7 to 57.5.
- The current-season sample is only two games; the feature window also blends in prior-season games.
Kansas City Chiefs to winFavorite3 models agreeHigh conviction
+18%Won
Taken at −550 on BetMGM
3 modelsPickEm, Brewing NFL Ml +1
Why 3 models like it
PickEm
- Last-six net EPA/play: Kansas City +0.05 versus Miami -0.41, a +0.46 matchup differential.
- Gates passed: official injury report was fresh at 7:52 AM PT; Mahomes practiced fully and Malik Willis was identified as Miami's starter.
- -550 leaves limited margin for ordinary NFL variance and requires the Chiefs to win outright, not merely control the game.
Brewing NFL Ml
- 2026 PIT EPA: KC offense +0.12/play vs Miami -0.20; KC defense -0.14 allowed vs Miami +0.22.
- Current report confirms Mahomes will start; PFF pass grade is 87.5 vs Willis 62.8, with pressure-to-sack 16.7% vs 32.1%.
- Two-game CPOE samples do not provide a clean KC edge: Mahomes averages about -5.3% versus Willis about -3.7%.
Quantitative +EV Analyst
- Kansas City’s last-10 net EPA edge is 0.21/play, or 20.6 points per 100 plays, above the 2.5-point situational gate.
- Chiefs lead current points per drive 2.79 to 1.40 and are 2-0 versus Miami’s 0-2 start.
- Chiefs tackle Josh Simmons is out, and Chris Jones/L'Jarius Sneed carry injury uncertainty.
Kansas City Chiefs −9.53 models agree
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on BetMGM
3 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, CLV Sharp ATS +1
Why 3 models like it
NFL Trench Mismatch
- KC trench score +0.45 vs Miami -0.73; TrenchEdge +1.18 clears the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary pass-trench scores: KC +0.29 vs Miami -0.61; edge +0.90 clears the 0.25 trigger.
- The pressure and sack inputs cover only two regular-season games; small samples can swing sharply.
CLV Sharp ATS
- Kansas City -9.5 at DraftKings is 1.0 point better than the -10.5 consensus and captures the key 10.
- Last-five net EPA blend: Kansas City +0.08 versus Miami -0.38, a +0.45 differential.
- Patrick Mahomes has a knee listing and full practice, but official game-day active confirmation is not yet posted.
Pigskin Pete
- KC leads current offensive EPA/play 0.12 to -0.20 and success rate 0.46 to 0.34.
- KC defensive EPA allowed is -0.14 versus Miami's 0.22 through two games.
- Josh Simmons is out at left tackle, reducing Kansas City's protection margin.
Travis Kelce over 51.5 receiving yards2 models agree
+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Early Down
Why 2 models like it
NFL Usage Adventure
- 86 receiving yards per game through two regular-season games; the 51.5 line is 60% of that baseline.
- Snap share rose from 71.0% to 85.0%; he has 16 targets and 66 routes in the two games.
- Only two regular-season games of usage and production make the projection sample thin.
Early Down
- Snap share rose 71% to 85%; routes climbed 27 to 42 in the first two games.
- Kelce produced 71 and 101 receiving yards; the trailing-three regular-game average is 61.3.
- Rice, Worthy, or Kenneth Walker can absorb targets despite Kelce's rising route role.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −102 models agree
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, +EV Volume Handicapper
Why 2 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs
- current 2-game sample: KC offense +0.12 EPA/play, while Miami offense is -0.20; KC defense is -0.14 EPA/play allowed versus Miami's +0.22.
- 2025 prior-season blend also favors Kansas City: KC offense +0.02 and defense -0.06 versus Miami offense -0.03 and defense +0.06 over 17 games each.
- Most likely loss: Miami's home-field advantage and explosive plays keep the Dolphins within ten despite the efficiency gap.
+EV Volume Handicapper
- Estimated 57.0% cover probability versus 51.9% break-even at -108: +5.1 percentage points.
- KC leads current offensive EPA/play 0.12 to Miami -0.20 and defensive EPA/play allowed -0.14 to +0.22.
- Only two regular-season games feed the current EPA, success-rate, and scoring baselines.
Kansas City Chiefs exact margin 1-6Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- live Pinnacle has Kansas City -10 (+106).
- Margins 1-6 comprise 1,108 of 2,792 historical games (39.7%); key 3, 4, and 6 contribute 726.
- Evaluated Kansas City buckets: 7-12 ~16.6%/20¢; 13-18 ~14.5%/21¢; 19-24 ~9.1%/14¢; 25+ ~9.0%/19¢.
- The bucket includes non-key 1, 2, and 5 margins; historical reweighting may not transfer to this matchup.

Show all 30 picks

Miami Dolphins to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
Under total 44.5
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
Miami Dolphins spread +6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US
Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
Kansas City Chiefs spread over 10.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
Kansas City Chiefs first-half to winFavorite
+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Rest: Kansas City 7 days, Miami 7 days; gap 0, so no rest advantage is claimed.
- EPA gap: KC offense +0.12 vs Miami -0.20; KC defense -0.14 vs Miami +0.22.
- Equal rest removes the brief's strongest lever; this is talent/script, not a rest mismatch.
Miami Dolphins first team to score points 2H
+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Second-half possession flips by rule; Miami receives the restart after Kansas City opened the game with the first possession.
- Miami's first possession today produced a touchdown; the current score is 7-7 after both teams' first drives reached the end zone.
- Team-first-drive sample: Miami scored points in 1 of 3 first possessions; league opening-drive sample was 11 of 42 drives, 26.2%.
- Miami's team-specific sample is only 3 games and the market's exclusive first-score sum is rich at 1.06.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins 2Q total under 13.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Kansas City averages 2.79 points per drive and Miami 1.40 through two regular-season games.
- Both teams operate near 30.35 seconds per play; two-to-three drives each does not require 14 points.
- Quarter variance is materially wider than a full-game distribution, so this 12-point separation clears the quarter-market bar.
- The first quarter is already 7-7, and live EPA has been strong for both offenses; continuation makes 14+ plausible.
Under total 45
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 53.0% under: Miami current offense is -0.20 EPA/play, 0.34 success, 0.08 explosive; Kansas City defense is -0.14 EPA/play.
- Kansas City offense is efficient, but Miami’s two-game offense has produced only 1.40 points/drive; both teams have seven rest days.
- Kansas City’s current offense is +0.12 EPA/play with a 0.14 explosive rate; efficient drives can break the under quickly.
Over 51.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Computed 2,791-game margin distribution anchors the total rung at p_anchor 32.1%; the +1.0-point total adjustment gives p_model 34.8%.
- Partial coverage: both teams have only two current-season regular-season games, so form-driven precision is limited.
Miami Dolphins under 16.5 team points
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami's offense is -0.20 EPA/play to date; Kansas City's defense is -0.14 EPA/play allowed.
- Miami averages 1.40 points per drive through two regular-season games and has converted 1 of 5 red-zone trips.
- The board's central split looks spread-derived: roughly 27-28 Kansas City and 17 Miami from a 44.5 total and -9.5 spread; this matchup projects Miami below that.
- Only two regular-season games support the efficiency and red-zone sample; early-season variance is substantial.
Miami Dolphins spread +10.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 form favors a competitive-margin cushion: Miami's offense is -0.20 EPA/play versus Kansas City's defense at -0.14 allowed.
- Kansas City's +0.12 offensive EPA/play and Miami's 0-2 start can produce a margin beyond 10.5.
Kenneth Walker III over 1+ touchdown
+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 75.8% snap share, workhorse label, and 6:02 AM depth chart rank him RB1 with no player ahead.
- Walker has 47 carries, 9 targets, and 2 touchdowns through two games.
- Kansas City has 10 red-zone trips and 6 conversions; Miami opponents have gone 8-for-9 inside the red zone.
- Only a two-game sample; the estimated six-point edge is modest and touchdown variance is wide.
Miami Dolphins +7 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami +7 wins when Miami covers; an exact 7-point Kansas City win is a push/refund, not a loss.
- ProphetX Miami +7 is +132 (43.10c) versus +117 (46.08c) on adjacent Miami +7.5; only 15 American points separate the rungs.
- The +7.5 comparator has a different win threshold and payout; the 15-point price gap may be fair rather than mispriced.
Game total under 43.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Miami Dolphins spread +7
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami has 3 book_levels vs Kansas City 2; backing Miami, thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Kansas City’s market-implied strength can win comfortably; no independent sharp reference is used as the primary case.
Game total under 37.5Long shot
+1900%Won
Taken at 5¢ on Polymarket US
Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Under 37.5 costs 0.04 while adjacent Under 36.5 costs 0.17.
- More-permissive Under 37.5 contract is materially cheaper than the nested Under 36.5 outcome.
- Live sharp reference is 52.5 at Bovada (-115/-115); 37.5 is 15 points into the desk’s tail.
- Tail uncertainty is high: 14 points were already scored early, and one short field can break the under.
First-half total under 24.5 pointsLong shot
+245%Won
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- rest is neutral, Kansas City 7 days, Miami 7 days; no short-week boost inflates the script.
- KC offensive EPA +0.12 versus Miami -0.20; KC defensive EPA -0.14 versus Miami +0.22.
- 5.5 combined first-half drives × 4.20, with a 10% scripted uplift, centers near 25.4; under 24.5 modeled at 44%.
- DraftKings directly comparable live 1H total is 27.5, under -125; the 24.5 rung remains a separate, tighter contract.
Kansas City Chiefs first-half spread over 6.5 points
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Rest: Kansas City 7 days, Miami 7; zero-day gap, so no rest penalty.
- KC offense +0.12 vs MIA -0.20, a 0.33 per-play gap.
- Defense: KC -0.14 vs MIA +0.22, a 0.36 EPA gap toward Kansas City.
- No rest advantage: the brief's strongest lever is absent.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −9.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX prices Kansas City ML -530 (84.13¢) but Chiefs -9.5 at -102 (50.5¢), a large related-market mismatch.
- Current-season EPA/play favors Kansas City: offense +0.12 vs Miami -0.20; defense -0.14 vs Miami +0.22.
- Personnel gate checked: Patrick Mahomes is expected to start; Malik Willis is identified as Miami's quarterback, with latest injury status null rather than Out/Doubtful.
- NFL Partial tier: both teams have only two current-season games, below the three-game Full threshold.
Tyquan Thornton over 18.5 receiving yards
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 60.0% deep-target share at a 35.7-yard deep aDOT; the downfield role is stable.
- 25.1 intended air yards and 3.24 separation across three charted weekly rows.
- PFF REGPO route rate is 98.4% in 2026 versus 93.8% across 11 same-team games in 2025.
- Current-season NGS separation is absent; the fallback is 2025 REG, only three weekly charted rows.
Kansas City Chiefs first-half team total over 13.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projected Chiefs first-half points: 15.3 versus the 13.5 line, a 1.8-point discrepancy.
- KC's 27.5 full-game team-total market implies a naive 13.75 first-half split; scripting lifts projection to 15.3.
- Kansas City averages 2.79 points per drive, +0.12 offensive EPA/play, and +10.8% PROE through two games.
- Caleb Douglas and Jaylen Wright are out, potentially shortening Miami possessions and changing scoring distribution.
Total Points under 46
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 through two games: Miami offense -0.20 EPA/play versus Kansas City defense -0.14 allowed.
- Pace is moderate: Miami 30.35 and Kansas City 31.31 seconds per offensive play.
- 2026 PFF card favors Kansas City 84.7, 57.5 overall, supporting controlled Chiefs game script.
- Only two 2026 games per team; prior-season blend is required and this is capped at LEAN.
Miami Dolphins first touchdown 2H
−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Live PBP shows Miami reached the red zone and scored via Ollie Gordon from the goal line.
- Miami's active RB1 De'Von Achane carries an 80.7% snap share; Gordon has demonstrated short-yardage touchdown access.
- KC received the opening kickoff; alternating possession supports Miami getting the second-half opening drive.
- Miami's prior two-game offense produced only 1 touchdown on 5 red-zone trips.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −17.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION; KC has +0.12 offensive EPA/play and 0.14 explosive rate versus Miami's -0.20 and 0.08.
- Most likely loss: Miami stays within 17 despite KC control, particularly through late backdoor scoring.