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FinalAT&T Stadium
Commanders0-1
20–37Final
Cowboys0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
WAS0103720
DAL107101037

Top model pick, graded

Won

Both teams score a touchdown first half over 0.5 11¢

Why Answered Back likes it: 0.11 first-half YES is below Q1 YES at 0.13 and Q2 YES at 0.12.

Answered BackNew
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How the picks did

Models went 17-17 on this game · +9% return

  1. Washington Commanders to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Washington 3 versus Dallas 3: no corroboration there, but thin-at-quote plus deep-total agree; backing Washington, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure is neutral: both sides have 3 book levels, so the signal is only two-measure consistent.
    Long Way Home
    • Dallas allowed +0.31 EPA/play in Week 1, creating a defensive regression and upset path the market may underweight.
    • Washington's offense was only mildly negative at -0.04 EPA/play, not the collapse implied by a 65.3% Dallas win price.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas repeats its Week 1 offensive efficiency (+0.22 EPA/play) and Washington cannot sustain drives.
  2. Dallas Cowboys to winFavorite2 models agree
    +2%Won

    Taken at 98¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSkip Bayless Tracker, Fade Stephen A. Smith
    Why 2 models like it
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • @RealSkipBayless's 9/20 feed item says Dallas has “dodged disaster again and again today” and “it is just our day.”
    • Read as a Cowboys win call in the live Washington-Dallas game.
    • The feed wording is rhetorical and does not explicitly say “Dallas will win.”
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • First Take clip headline records Stephen A.'s emphatic stance: “Commanders will send Cowboys fan to hell”; he “can't see Dallas win in Week 2.”
    • The opposite contract is live and executable: Dallas is priced at 66c on Polymarket US.
    • Dallas can lose despite the favorite price if Washington wins the matchup or repeats its Week 1 defensive success.
  3. Both teams score a touchdown first half over 0.5Long shotHigh conviction
    +809%Won

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Answered BackNew model
    Why it likes it
    • 0.11 first-half YES is below Q1 YES at 0.13 and Q2 YES at 0.12.
    • Strict nesting: either quarter event implies both teams scored a touchdown in the first half.
    • 2025 regular-season direct sample: 98 of 272 games (36.0%) had both teams score a touchdown in the first half.
    • The 272-game historical sample is broad and not a game-specific forecast; Washington and Dallas had only one 2026 game each.
  4. Dallas Cowboys exact margin 7-13Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; Tier 1 key-number mass is 44.2% (1,229 of 2,779 historical games).
    • Pinnacle centers Dallas at -4 (-103); a normal baseline reweighted by the empirical margin histogram gives Dallas 7-13 about 15.2%.
    • Dallas can still land 7-13 through a normal touchdown/field-goal sequence; exact-margin variance is large.
  5. Washington Commanders second-quarter drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington +0.5 at 0.53 minus its period-winner contract at 0.37 implies a 0.16 draw.
    • Direct second-quarter draw is quoted at 0.13: a 3-point structural discrepancy.
    • One touchdown or field goal breaks the quarter tie; scoring timing is highly discrete.
  6. Over total 52.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • p_model 50.0%: Dallas posted 0.22 offensive EPA/play and 3.0 points/drive in Week 1.
    • Both teams show positive PROE; Dallas pace was 26.55 seconds/play, supporting a modest scoring lift.
    • Only one current-season game per team; this is PARTIAL coverage, not FULL.
Show all 32 picks
  1. Over total 51.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  2. Washington Commanders spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SD 13.5 distribution calibrated to Pinnacle's -4 reference gives p_anchor 56.3% at Washington +3.50.
    • PARTIAL coverage: each team has only 1 current-season game, below the 4-game FULL threshold.
  3. Dallas Cowboys first-half winnerFavorite
    +9%Won

    Taken at 92¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas leads 10-0; its offense has 18 plays and 5.0 current points per drive versus Washington's 4 plays and 0.0.
    • To-date efficiency favors Dallas: +0.22 EPA/play and 3.0 PPD versus Washington's -0.04 EPA/play and 2.0 PPD.
    • Square-root scaling matters: half-margin SD grows with √drives, not linear halving; the fit preserves comeback tails.
    • Washington must outscore Dallas by 11+ from 0-10 to overturn the half, but one turnover or explosive touchdown can create that swing.
  4. Stefon Diggs over 47.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 targets and 55 yards in Week 1; 62.9% snap share and 28 routes clear the 50% usage gate.
    • Current PFF card shows 2.20 yards per route run; 28 routes imply roughly 61.6 receiving yards.
    • Dallas ranks worst among 2026 PFF coverage units in quarterback rating allowed and has +0.31 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Washington's offense produced -0.04 EPA/play in Week 1, so total pass efficiency could disappoint.
  5. Dallas Cowboys spread −4
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current matchup read: Dallas offense +0.22 EPA/play versus Washington defense +0.02 allowed, while Washington offense is -0.04 versus Dallas defense +0.31 allowed; net Dallas edge +0.54.
    • Coverage is only 2 pre-kickoff 2026 feature rows per team, so this is LEAN and uses the 2025 prior blend: Dallas offense +0.09 versus Washington +0.01 EPA/play.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card also favors Dallas: 66.4 offense and 52.4 defense versus Washington's 59.3 and 42.8; rest is even at 7 days, non-neutral indoor game.
    • Dallas's +0.31 defensive EPA allowed is poor; Washington can score enough to keep the margin under four.
  6. Washington Commanders under 23.5 team points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington’s -0.04 offensive EPA/play and 2.0 points per drive fit a 22, 23 point projection.
    • Dallas team total around 27.5 plus Washington around 23.5 nearly reproduces the 50.5 game total and -4.5 spread, so the board looks mechanically spread-split rather than independently modeled.
    • The matchup model leans below the 23.5 board number despite Washington’s 29.32 pace; the offense has less efficiency margin than the market’s near-even price implies.
    • Washington converted 3 of 3 Week 1 red-zone trips; repeat scoring efficiency can push a 22, 23 projection over the number.
  7. Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys total under 51.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's latest five-game offense averaged -0.20 EPA/play and 1.35 points per drive; the matchup's to-date offense EPA is -0.04 for Washington.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas offense at +0.22 EPA/play and Washington's 0.10 explosive-play rate produce a shootout.
  8. George Pickens over 64.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-run joint simulation: 57% for 65+ yards versus -111 implied 52.6%.
    • 2025 profile: 609 routes over 17 games, 137 targets and 2.35 yards per route run.
    • DAL market total is 50.5; simulated total is 49.8, a 0.7-point gate pass.
    • Pickens produced only 28 yards in Week 1 and his route rate was 86.5%, below 2025's 92.1%.
  9. Washington Commanders spread +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA strategy score: Washington -0.12 vs Dallas -0.66; +0.54 edge clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary EPA edge is +0.23 (Washington -0.09 vs Dallas -0.32), clearing the 0.20 trigger.
    • Washington offensive explosives z-score is +0.61; Dallas defensive explosive-allowed component is -1.78.
    • Dallas leads Washington in offensive pass, rush, and success-rate components; a repeat of that matchup advantage can erase the edge.
  10. Dak Prescott passing touchdowns 2+Favorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dak already has 1 passing TD on 11 attempts with 4:18 left in the first quarter.
    • Dallas has 119 yards, 2 red-zone drives and 1 red-zone TD; its offense entered with +0.22 EPA/play and +0.21 PROE.
    • Dak is the confirmed QB1, has played 100% of snaps, and the live box confirms he remains on the field.
    • Dallas can shift goal-line work toward workhorse RB Javonte Williams, who has a 70.7% snap share.
  11. Dallas Cowboys first touchdown
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION / venue self-reference: Dallas first-TD YES is 56¢; usage estimate is roughly 60%, a 4-point disagreement.
    • Dallas leads Washington by 0.25 offensive EPA/play to date (+0.22 vs -0.04) and by 1.0 point/drive (3.0 vs 2.0).
    • Dallas is the home favorite; assumption: a lead produces more late-drive rushing and concentrates goal-line equity on the workhorse.
    • Dallas and Washington each had 3 red-zone trips and 3 red-zone scores in Week 1, so the red-zone sample gives no clear team separation.
  12. Javonte Williams 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70.7% live snap share and RB1 depth-chart slot; usage label is workhorse.
    • Week 1 produced 12 carries, 5 targets, and two touchdowns for Williams.
    • Dallas converted 3 of 3 red-zone trips; Washington allowed 2 of 3 opponent red-zone trips.
    • Three Dallas red-zone trips is a one-game sample and may regress sharply.
  13. Dallas Cowboys −4 spread
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle lists the same Dallas -4 contract at -107; ProphetX offers -103 (50.74¢).
    • Dallas -4.5 is -105/-106 at DraftKings/FanDuel, near-parity with the whole-number rung despite its lack of push protection.
    • The contract pushes only if Dallas wins by exactly four; every other result is a normal spread win or loss.
  14. Dallas Cowboys spread −3
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Dallas 3 versus Washington 3; this corroborates neither side, so the first two measures are the qualifying pair.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count is tied 3-3.
  15. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are under 3 versus over 3: neutral, while thin-at-quote plus deep-total agree; backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure is neutral: both sides have 3 book levels, so the signal is only two-measure consistent.
  16. Ryan Flournoy over 29.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Declared WR3 in Dallas's 3WR chart and active; Week 1 usage was 70.7% snaps and 22 routes.
    • His 22 routes last week provide a usable role signal despite only four targets.
    • Flournoy produced 22 yards on four Week 1 targets, below today's line.
  17. Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 51.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63 rushing yards on 16 carries in Week 1; 22.3% above 51.5.
    • Declared RB1 and active; logged a 48.6% snap share and 16 carries last week.
    • Dallas defensive EPA-to-date is +0.31; Washington ran on 69% of first downs in Week 1.
    • One 2026 game and a prior-five range of 25, 105 yards make the sample volatile.
  18. Washington Commanders first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest gap is 0 days: Washington and Dallas each have 7 days.
    • live QB1 depth-chart entries are Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott; neither has a current espn_live Questionable/Doubtful designation.
    • the strongest first-half lever is absent because rest is even.
  19. Game total under 24.5 first half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is neutral at 7 days each; no short-week distortion is being smuggled into the projection.
    • To-date inputs are mixed: Dallas offense EPA/play +0.22 vs Washington -0.04, while Washington defensive EPA/play +0.02 is materially better than Dallas +0.31.
    • Pace is 26.55 Dallas / 29.32 Washington and points per drive 3.0 / 2.0; the script profile does not justify chasing the 24.5 over.
    • This is a slight, not moderate, edge; calculate_kelly characterized it as tiny and not a recommended-size position.
  20. Dallas Cowboys spread −3.5
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 48% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington Luck Score 0.12 vs Dallas -0.55: Luck Difference +0.68 toward Washington.
    • Primary Luck Difference +0.55: Washington turnover luck 0.00 vs Dallas -0.80; fumble luck +0.59 vs -0.98.
    • Washington offensive red-zone luck is +1.40; Dallas defensive red-zone luck is +0.15.
    • Each team has only one 2026 regular-season game; all regression estimates are extremely thin.
  21. Game second-half total over 25.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects roughly 26.5 second-half points: blended current PPD is about 2.5 per team per drive, with 26.55/29.32 sec-play pace inputs.
    • Full-game Polymarket US total is 51.5; the 25.5 first-half and 25.5 second-half anchors sum to only 51.0 before the customary late scoring bump.
    • Square-root scaling is central: half-game variance scales with sqrt(drives), not a linear half of full-game variance, supporting a tighter half distribution around the elevated second-half mean.
    • Both teams have only one 2026 regular-season game in the current PPD/EPA sample; efficiency estimates are highly unstable.
  22. Washington Commanders 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NFC East divisional matchup; Washington is the full-game underdog at +3.5.
    • Dallas allowed +0.27 EPA/play in the 1st quarter across its last five games, well above the -0.05 gate.
    • Dallas posted positive first-quarter defensive EPA in three of those five games, including +0.56 and +0.86.
    • Washington averaged only 2.4 first-quarter points across its last five, below the 4.0 scoring threshold.
  23. Game total over 51
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.55 Dallas and 29.32 Washington pace_to_date; the 2026 feature row has one completed-game sample.
    • Seven rest days each and a non-neutral indoor venue add no schedule or weather drag.
    • REFERENCE is directionally supportive: team totals sum to 53 versus the 51 full-game rung; first-half 24.5 doubles to 49.
    • LEAN only: each team has just one completed 2026 regular-season feature sample.
  24. Total points over 51.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas and Washington are playing at 26.55 and 29.32 seconds per play; both current PROE marks are positive at 0.22 and 0.09.
    • Current matchup EPA supports scoring: Dallas offense 0.22 versus Washington defense 0.02, while Washington offense -0.04 faces Dallas defense 0.31.
    • Current sportsbook reference spans 50.5, 51.5; ProphetX still offers the over above the main-board number at plus money.
    • each team has only one completed 2026 game; the 17-game 2025 priors are weighed because coverage is partial.
  25. Dallas Cowboys −29.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1100 on DraftKings

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RealSkipBayless feed item at 2:10 PM PDT: “Cowboys should win this game by 30.”
    • A standard -29.5 spread is the directly bettable equivalent of winning by 30 or more.
    • Polymarket US’s Dallas 21+ exact-margin row was unquoted; DraftKings provided the live executable fallback.
    • Dallas must win by at least 30; a 29-point win loses despite matching the broad blowout thesis.
  26. Dak Prescott 400+ passing yardsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RealSkipBayless feed item at 2:10 PM PDT: “Dak should throw for 400.”
    • Dak Prescott is explicitly identified in the live Kalshi 400+ passing-yards contract for WAS @ DAL.
    • Kalshi YES price is 25¢ at grading confirmation; prediction-market price preferred under the brief.
    • One sack, stalled drive, or injury can make this extreme threshold miss.

Questions

Who won Commanders vs. Cowboys?

The Cowboys won 37-20 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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