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FinalGillette Stadium
Steelers1-0
3–20Final
Patriots0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
PIT03003
NE733720

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 39.5 44¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Named forecast: 62°F, 56% rain chance, gusts up to 16 mph at outdoor Gillette; apply the brief's -1.0 total adjustment.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 23-11 on this game · +32% return

  1. New England Patriots first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    +18%Won

    Taken at 85¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • NE leads 7, 0 with 3:35 left in Q1; live data shows NE +0.30 EPA/play and 3.5 points/drive versus PIT -0.53 and 0.0.
    • The first-half winner costs 85c, the same as the stricter NE -3.5 first-half spread; that venue self-reference makes the winner contract the cleaner value.
    • PIT has most of the remaining first-half time to erase the lead; one touchdown and a stalled NE possession can flip the result.
    Split Decision
    • 11 rest days for New England versus 7 for Pittsburgh: a +4-day first-half freshness edge.
    • to-date favors New England's offense: -0.07 versus Pittsburgh's -0.34; success rate is 47.1% versus 34.9%.
    • No directly comparable sharp first-half sportsbook line; 61% is a derived reference, not independent first-half validation.
  2. Aaron Rodgers over 34.5 pass attempts2 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 40 attempts in Week 1; 47, 39, and 40 in his latest three games.
    • 98.5% snap share in Week 1, with 89.5% and 100% in the prior two.
    • New England's pregame defense EPA allowed is -0.07, a legitimate efficiency obstacle.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 38.8 attempts per game across his latest five starts, 12.5% above 34.5.
    • Pittsburgh posted a 66.1% pass rate and +17.9% PROE in Week 1.
    • His latest 10-game average is only 33.0 attempts, below this line.
  3. Game total under 412 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the read qualifies on two of three measures; raw stakes are several thousand dollars, not a tiny quote.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent validation; resting orders can be stale or strategic.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • combined current-season offense EPA/play is -0.40 (-0.34 PIT, -0.07 NE); both offenses are below zero.
    • listed pace is slow on both sides: 28.19 seconds/play Pittsburgh and 30.50 New England.
    • The 41-point ProphetX rung is lower than the sharp 41.5 reference; a 41-point finish is a push, but 42 loses.
  4. New England Patriots exact margin 7-13Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 7-13 bucket contains key numbers 7 and 10, where football scoring arithmetic concentrates outcomes beyond generic smoothing.
    • The bucket loses to New England by 1-6, by 14+, a Pittsburgh win, or a tie.
  5. Game total over 44High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 44 wins at 45+, pushes at exactly 44, and loses at 43 or fewer; over 44.5 loses at 44.
    • ProphetX over 44 is now 40.98¢ versus over 44.5 at 39.37¢: only a 1.61¢ premium for the whole-rung push option.
    • The adjacent half-point offer or this line can move before kickoff; the ProphetX quote and line ID are live inputs.
  6. Under total 39.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Named forecast: 62°F, 56% rain chance, gusts up to 16 mph at outdoor Gillette; apply the brief's -1.0 total adjustment.
    • PARTIAL coverage: each team has only 1 current-season game, so the distribution and prior-year form are volatile.
Show all 31 picks
  1. Under total 34.5Long shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −5.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye are the latest QB1 depth-chart entries; both teams have only one current-season game, so the model is deliberately conservative.
    • Pittsburgh must win by at least six; New England's current success rate is 47.1% versus Pittsburgh's 34.9%, a direct downside to the dog.
  3. New England Patriots 1H spread over 2.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • [PROJECTION] Rest is 11 days for New England versus 7 for Pittsburgh, a four-day first-half freshness edge.
    • EPA gap: New England offense -0.07 versus Pittsburgh -0.34; defenses favor New England by -0.07 versus -0.21.
    • Model projects roughly 59% for New England to clear 2.5; raw Kalshi 0.56 is fraction pricing, equal to 56¢.
    • Pinnacle supplies a full-game, not direct first-half, line; the 3.5-point reference is derived scaling.
  4. New England Patriots no first second-half score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • All three second-half first-score contracts passed integrity screening: both sides quoted and no placeholder-band prices.
    • By-rule second-half possession restarts with the other team; opening-kickoff uncertainty does not apply to this restarted market.
    • No half-specific opening-drive sample; full-game opening-drive rates are only a proxy for second-half scoring.
  5. New England Patriots no first second-half touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 68 first offensive drives each, 2022-25: PIT first-drive TD 14.7%; NE 19.1%.
    • Unknown restart order gives NE a 52.6%-61.6% first-second-half-TD range; midpoint 57.1%.
    • Opening kickoff and second-half possession order were unpublished; possession changes the estimate by 9.0 points.
  6. Game first-half total under 20.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current PPD: NE 1.11, PIT 1.00; 11.0 expected combined half-drives implies 11.6 points.
    • Historical first-half mean 23.11, SD 9.07 across 2,776 games; model fair under 20.5 ≈84% versus 52c.
    • Square-root scaling: 11.0 projected half-drives versus 11.06 historical; preserve near-9.07 SD, never linearly halve variance.
    • PPD and 9/13 full-game drive counts are only one 2026 game per team; sample uncertainty is substantial.
  7. Over 44.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial ledger adds 0.5 total points: both PROE rates are positive (NE 9.4%, PIT 17.9%), with explosive rates of 13.4% and 11.3% in the last-10 view.
    • P_anchor at 44.5 is 41.7%; p_model is 43.1%; EV_anchor +4.2%, EV_model +7.8%.
    • Most likely loss is a 44-point-or-lower game; NE's 30.5-second pace and low current explosive rate can suppress scoring.
  8. Game total over 8.5 in Q1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal-coherence only: full-game spread +3.5/+4.5/+5.5 anchors imply Steelers margin mean about -4.9, SD about 12.0.
    • Total 40.5/41.5/42.5 anchors imply game-total mean about 41.3, SD about 10.1; the nearby ladders agree smoothly.
    • The period-adjusted Q1 fit is mean 10.3, SD about 5.1, pricing over 8.5 near 64%.
    • The Q1 contract's last recorded change was roughly three hours before the wake; activity is real but thinner than the full-game anchors.
  9. New England Patriots full-game spread −6.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Comfortable MarginDown 51% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England leads 7-0 with 3:03 left in the first quarter; live EPA is +0.30 for New England versus -0.53 for Pittsburgh, with a 62.5% versus 28.6% success-rate split.
    • QB gate passed: Drake Maye and Aaron Rodgers are both latest QB1 depth-chart entries; the live injury cross-check lists neither starter as out or questionable.
    • This is the Comfortable Margin high-base-rate alternate-spread profile, distinct from the existing plus-money-value fleet; the rung clears the raised 8-point derived-reference bar.
    • The 62% estimate is derived from the sharp main line rather than an independent sharp quote at exactly -6.5; model error is the central uncertainty.
  10. New England Patriots under 23.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE offense is -0.07 EPA/play with 1.11 points per drive in its lone 2026 regular-season game.
    • PIT defense is -0.21 EPA/play allowed; that specific matchup is materially tougher than a generic spread split.
    • 41.5 game total and 5.5-point spread imply NE 23.5 ((41.5+5.5)/2), so the board number looks mechanically derived rather than independently modeled.
    • Only one regular-season game supplies the EPA and points-per-drive inputs; the fitted probability is highly sample-sensitive.
  11. Game total under 44
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE offense EPA/play is -0.07 and PIT is -0.34; both defenses allow negative EPA.
    • PFF 2026 team grades show PIT defense at 72.8 and NE defense at 59.3, supporting a lower-scoring game shape.
    • The 41.5 main total leaves room to 44; the historical 44-point mass is explicit key-number context, not a smooth normal tail.
    • Only one 2026 regular-season game is in the form sample for each team, so EPA and success rates are thin.
  12. New England Patriots −5.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA strategy score: New England 0.80 vs Pittsburgh 0.17; EPA edge -0.63 toward New England.
    • Primary EPA score: New England 0.57 vs Pittsburgh 0.21; primary edge -0.36.
    • Components PIT→NE: offensive pass -0.32→1.17, offensive rush 0.31→1.80, defensive pass 0.22→0.67.
    • The unusually large Pittsburgh defensive-rush component can regress sharply in a single-game matchup.
  13. Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 84.5% snap share and workhorse RB1 role concentrate goal-line equity.
    • Week 1 usage: 18 carries plus 6 targets, far ahead of New England’s other backs.
    • NE’s 1.11 points/drive versus PIT’s 1.00 supports a favorable script; a favorite should lean run near the goal line.
    • PIT allowed Atlanta zero red-zone attempts in Week 1, so the current defensive sample is not informative.
  14. New England Patriots spread −7
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England -7 pushes on exactly a 7-point Patriots win; New England -7.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX has New England -7 at +142 versus -7.5 at +154; the whole rung is only 12 American points cheaper.
    • New England must win by more than 7; a win by 1, 6 or any non-Patriots win loses the contract.
  15. Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −149 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.4 receptions per game across his latest five, 36% above the 2.5 line.
    • Stevenson caught 5 of 6 targets in Week 1.
    • His 84.5% snap share and workhorse label provide unusually stable opportunity.
    • Pittsburgh’s -0.21 defensive EPA per play may suppress New England possessions.
  16. Game total under 21.5 first half
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England has 11 rest days versus Pittsburgh's 7, a four-day scripted-plan freshness edge.
    • to-date: NE offense -0.07 and defense -0.07 versus PIT offense -0.34 and defense -0.21; success rate is .471 versus .349.
    • Points per drive are 1.11 for NE and 1.00 for PIT; PIT's 28.19 pace trails NE's 30.5 despite a higher .178 PROE.
    • Live score is already 7-0 with 18:35 left in the half; one short-field turnover or quick NE touchdown breaks the under.
  17. Rhamondre Stevenson under 48.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Run trench: NE run-block grade 62.0 vs PIT run-defense grade 84.1; pass-side is near-neutral (75.4 vs 73.2).
    • Mechanism confirmed: Stevenson produced -22.1 rush yards over expected on 18 Week 1 carries.
    • Decision: Moderate play, reduced stake because the game-day line state is not fully verified.
    • NE OT Dametrious Crownover is out and C Ben Brown is questionable, so the current NE run-block grade may not represent today's starters.
  18. Game total under 42
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX first-half total is 20.5; doubled, it also implies 41 versus the full-game 42.
    • pace_to_date is 28.19 Pittsburgh and 30.50 New England, with combined 58.69; sample is one 2026 game each.
    • Most likely loss: a short-field turnover or explosive pass turns the low-count projection into 43+ points.
  19. New England Patriots to winFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 one-game EPA read favors New England: offense -0.07 versus Pittsburgh defense allowed -0.21, a +0.15 matchup edge.
    • Pittsburgh's offense is -0.34 against New England's -0.07 defensive mark, a -0.27 matchup gap toward the Patriots.
    • Home rest is 11 days versus Pittsburgh's 7; Gillette Stadium is non-neutral.
    • Both teams have only one 2026 regular-season feature row; the brief's three-game coverage threshold is not met.
  20. Total points under 39.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 to-date offenses are negative EPA/play: PIT -0.34 and NE -0.07, one game each.
    • Current defenses are favorable to unders: PIT def EPA allowed -0.21 and NE -0.07.
    • Pace is modest at 28.19 PIT and 30.50 NE; prior-season blend was 30.32 and 32.07.
    • coverage is only one 2026 game per team, so prior-season blend carries substantial weight.
  21. Drake Maye ptd 2+
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2 red-zone attempts and 1 conversion in New England's opener indicate a thin current scoring-opportunity base.
    • Both sides are live and quoted; the NO contract is tradable at 56¢, with no player-TD market duplication because this is the separate passing-TD family.
    • Maye threw 31 touchdowns in 17 games in 2025, so the underlying red-zone passer is capable of clearing two.
  22. Rhamondre Stevenson first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stevenson owns New England’s clearest verified early-down and goal-line workload.
    • His 84.5% snap share, 18 carries, and 6 targets create the strongest first-score usage profile on this offense.
    • New England is the home moneyline favorite, supporting more early scoring opportunities and a run-heavy goal-line script.
    • First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance and depend on opening possession and scripted calls.
  23. Game total under 42.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • pregame features show offensive EPA/play of -0.34 for Pittsburgh and -0.07 for New England.
    • Points per drive are only 1.00 for Pittsburgh and 1.11 for New England; both profiles support a low-scoring script.
    • The 42.5 line is only one point above the 41.5 sharp reference, so the margin is not wide.
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers spread +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 PIT/NE pregame feature: Pittsburgh owns the better defensive EPA figure and higher explosive-play rate despite NE's offensive edge.
    • New England's offense is still negative in EPA/play (-0.07) with only 1.11 points per drive; Pittsburgh's offense is worse, but the five-point buffer matters.
    • Venue price gives Pittsburgh a full +5 at near-even cost, improving on the sharper +5.5 reference while the matchup profile is closer than the moneyline gap suggests.
    • Most likely loss: New England's 47.1% success rate versus Pittsburgh's 34.9% sustains drives and turns the favorite's edge into a margin cover.
  25. Game total under 41.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 56% under; fair line approximately 39.5 points.
    • Both defenses were negative in EPA allowed: Pittsburgh -0.21, New England -0.07.
    • Combined pace indicators are slow: 28.19 and 30.5 seconds per offensive play.
    • Only one regular-season game supplies the current EPA and success-rate sample.

Questions

Who won Steelers vs. Patriots?

The Patriots won 20-3 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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