Get app
FinalSoFi Stadium
Raiders1-0
26–14Final
Chargers0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
LV0107926
LAC077014

Top model pick, graded

Won

Las Vegas Raiders spread +3.5 41¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Raiders led in success rate (49.3% vs 40.4%) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.30 vs Chargers +0.01).

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 22-10 on this game · +67% return

  1. Las Vegas Raiders to winLong shot4 models agree
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsKey Number Pairs, Resting Money +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Current EPA form favors Las Vegas: +0.03 offense and -0.30 defense last game, versus Chargers -0.33 offense and +0.01 defense.
    • 2026 PFF card favors Las Vegas 73.1-59.8 overall; Raiders pass-block grade 73.6 versus Chargers 61.1.
    • Current-season EPA is a one-game sample; the five-game window includes prior-season games and is noisy.
    Resting Money
    • Backing Las Vegas Raiders, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow or projection confirmation.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Week-1 feature sheet: Raiders led by 0.36 EPA/play offensively and 0.31 defensively allowed.
    • Raiders pass-rush win rate is 16.4% versus Chargers’ 7.9%; pass-rush grades are 70.0 versus 59.2.
    • 2026 EPA is a one-game sample; turnover regression matters after Las Vegas threw two interceptions.
    Long Way Home
    • 2026 Week 1: Raiders posted +0.03 offensive EPA/play and 2.45 points/drive; Chargers posted -0.33 and 1.4.
    • Raiders won 27-13 while the Chargers lost 26-14; the one-game sample is noisy, but the directional gap is substantial.
    • The projection is built on one regular-season game per team, so opponent and game-state effects may dominate.
  2. Las Vegas Raiders spread +3.52 models agree
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, Locker Room
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Raiders led in success rate (49.3% vs 40.4%) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.30 vs Chargers +0.01).
    • Small one-game form sample makes this PARTIAL, not FULL coverage.
    Locker Room
    • Las Vegas led the pregame efficiency inputs: +0.03 offensive EPA and 2.45 points per drive versus the Chargers' -0.33 and 1.4.
    • Live state is 0-0 with 4:04 left in the first quarter, preserving the Raiders' first-half cushion while no scoring variance has been realized.
    • The 2026 to-date sample is only one completed game and the game-feature inputs are pre-kickoff, not a stable season sample.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders spread +6.52 models agree
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Trench scores: Raiders offense +0.88 vs Chargers offense -0.69; +1.58 edge clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary pass-trench edge is +1.29, comfortably above the required 0.25 threshold.
    • The 2026 PFF OL/DL distributions are effectively one-game samples, so the z-scores are highly volatile.
    Number Earned
    • Model estimates 56% cover probability versus 49.5% implied at +102; fair line roughly Chargers -4.5.
    • Raiders lead current form in offense EPA/play (+0.03 vs -0.33) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.30 vs +0.01).
    • The 2026 sample is one game; the 10-game advanced window includes prior-season observations and is noisy.
  4. Las Vegas Raiders spread +72 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • Model projects Raiders +8.1, 1.6 points better than the consensus +6.5 spread.
    • Raiders recent net EPA/play is +0.06 versus Chargers -0.10, a +0.16 differential.
    • Official Sunday inactive lists are not yet posted; a late QB scratch would materially change the projection.
    House Rules
    • Raiders +7 pushes, rather than loses, when the Chargers win by exactly 7.
    • ProphetX +7 is -111 (52.61¢) versus +6.5 at +106 (48.54¢), only a 4.07¢ premium for push protection.
    • A Chargers win by 8 or more loses the +7 contract; exactly 7 is only a push.
  5. Ashton Jeanty over 62.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsShoulders of Giants, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Shoulders of Giants
    • O-line gate verified: fresh depth chart keeps LV's starting center and Week 1 core; only Bryce Cabeldue is a current G inactive.
    • Trench matchup: LV pass block 80.5 vs LAC rush 59.2; run block 65.7 vs LAC run defense 60.6.
    • Cabeldue's game-day absence could alter LV's run-block grade; the replacement's impact is not fully observable pre-kickoff.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 82.4 rushing yards across his last five games is 31.8% above the 62.5-yard line.
    • Jeanty is the declared RB1 and workhorse, with a 73.5% Week 1 snap share.
    • The Raiders are underdogs, so a negative script could shift work toward passing.
  6. Over total 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
Show all 25 picks
  1. Game second-half total over 21.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 43.5; the 1H ladder centers near 21.5 while the 2H ladder centers near 21, leaving the halves about 1 point short.
    • That shortfall is inconsistent with the standard late-game scoring bump; the 2H total is the mispriced number, anchored by the full-game total and 1H market.
    • Las Vegas enters with +0.03 offensive EPA/play and 2.45 points/drive versus the Chargers' -0.33 and 1.4; LV defense is -0.30 EPA/play allowed.
    • The internal mismatch is only about 1 point and may reflect rounding, fees, or a stale/thin half-board quote rather than true mispricing.
  2. Michael Mayer over 5.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 targets and 6 receptions in Week 1; his last three listed games average 7.3 targets.
    • 80.9% snap share and 25 routes in Week 1; prior two late-season games were 96.8% and 93.1%.
    • Brock Bowers is doubtful after surgery, concentrating Raiders tight-end usage toward Mayer.
    • Only one 2026 regular-season game; historical usage spans seasons and may not represent the current role.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders +6.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blend projects Los Angeles Chargers -3.5, a 3.0-point gap versus the -6.5 consensus.
    • 2026 Week 1 EPA: Raiders offense +0.03 and defense -0.30; Chargers offense -0.33 and defense +0.01.
    • PFF trench grades favor Las Vegas: pass block 80.5 vs 70.1, run block 65.7 vs 50.6, pass rush 77.6 vs 60.9.
    • Chargers retain the 2025 efficiency prior and home-field advantage; the market's -6.5 is not baseless.
  4. Los Angeles Chargers under 23.5 team points
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; Chargers -0.33 offensive EPA/play meets Raiders -0.30 defensive EPA allowed, a strongly unfavorable matchup.
    • Chargers produced 14 points on 10 drives with 1.40 points per drive in Week 1; Raiders allowed 13 points.
    • 43.5 game total and Chargers -6.5 imply roughly 25.0 Chargers points; the team-total ladder looks spread-split rather than independently modeled.
    • Only one 2026 game supplies the EPA, pace, points-per-drive, and red-zone samples; regression toward preseason expectations could erase the edge.
  5. Los Angeles Chargers exact margin 7-13Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live main spread is Chargers -6.5; the sharp spread favors Los Angeles.
    • The 2016+ unconditional margin histogram may not transfer cleanly to this 2026 matchup.
  6. Los Angeles Chargers −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA Strategy Score: Chargers +0.20 vs Raiders -0.81; EPA Edge +1.02.
    • Primary EPA Score: Chargers +0.16 vs Raiders -0.57; Primary EPA Edge +0.73.
    • Chargers component breakdown: pass defense +0.90, rush defense +0.46, defensive success +0.60, defensive explosives +0.70.
    • A touchdown margin is required at -6.5; divisional-game variance and late scoring create cover risk.
  7. Las Vegas Raiders first touchdown
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14.0% pregame offensive EPA edge: Raiders 0.03 vs Chargers -0.33.
    • Raiders averaged 2.45 points per drive versus Chargers' 1.40 entering this game.
    • Ashton Jeanty is a verified workhorse: 73.5% snap share, 23 carries and 6 targets last week.
    • Chargers received first and reached the Raiders' 40 before missing a 58-yard field goal.
  8. Ashton Jeanty touchdowns over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 73.5% projected snap share; RB1 workhorse, with no higher-ranked running back ahead.
    • 23 Week 1 carries validate a lead role, more relevant than season-long touchdown totals.
    • Las Vegas had 4 red-zone attempts and 3 conversions; the Chargers allowed 5 and 2 last week.
    • Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite; a negative script can reduce Raiders goal-line possessions.
  9. Game total under 35.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are under 2 versus over 2 (tie); two of three measures agree, and the thin side has more than the few-hundred-dollar minimum.
    • Directional check: backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; current offer is under 35.5 at 48.31¢ (+107 American).
    • The book-level measure does not corroborate the read: both sides show 2 levels.
  10. Las Vegas Raiders +5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; the core thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing qualifies, with both raw stakes comfortably above a few hundred dollars.
    • Directional check: backing Las Vegas Raiders +5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: 3 Raiders levels versus 3 Chargers levels.
  11. Justin Herbert under 30.5 pass attempts
    +74%Won

    Taken at −135 on BetMGM

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 27.2 attempts across his last six games, 10.9% below today's 30.5 line.
    • Raiders defense posted -0.30 defensive EPA through Week 1.
    • Herbert is confirmed QB1 with a 100% Week 1 snap share; the prop is active and priced.
    • A trailing Chargers script can force Herbert above 30 attempts.
  12. Game total under 21.5 first half
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • both teams have 7 rest days; no fatigue adjustment is needed.
    • LAC offense is -0.33 EPA/play against LV defense at -0.30 EPA allowed; LAC success rate is 40.4%.
    • PPD baseline is LAC 1.40 and LV 2.45; roughly five drives per team with a modest scripted uplift projects about 20.3 first-half points.
    • No rest mismatch exists: 7 days versus 7 days removes the brief's strongest signal.
  13. Las Vegas Raiders first-half winner
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 rest days each: no rest advantage; this projection is efficiency-driven, not a short-week assumption.
    • Raiders success rate .4928 vs Chargers .4038; Raiders offensive EPA/play +.0299 vs Chargers -0.33.
    • Raiders defensive EPA allowed -0.30 vs Chargers +0.01; points per drive are 2.45 vs 1.40.
    • No rest mismatch exists, and the early-season to-date efficiency sample may be unstable.
  14. Las Vegas Raiders 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AFC West divisional matchup: Raiders and Chargers are both listed in AFC West.
    • Chargers allowed +0.29 EPA/play in the first quarter across their last five games.
    • The Raiders are the priced 1Q underdog: YES at 30c versus Chargers YES at 50c.
    • Raiders scored only 1.2 first-quarter points per game across their last five, below the 4.0 threshold.
  15. Total points under 43.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 to-date offense EPA is Raiders +0.03, Chargers -0.33 (one game each).
    • Opponent-adjusted read favors the under: Raiders defense -0.30 EPA allowed versus Chargers offense; Chargers defense +0.01 versus Raiders offense.
    • Pace is 32.44 seconds per play for Las Vegas versus 28.98 for Los Angeles; PROE is -0.01 versus +0.16.
    • Only one completed 2026 game per team makes EPA, pace, and PROE highly noisy; prior-season blending can change the projection.
  16. Las Vegas Raiders spread +7.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • One-game 2026 sample: Raiders offense +0.03 EPA/play versus Chargers defense +0.01 allowed; Chargers offense -0.33 versus Raiders defense -0.30 allowed.
    • Current PFF card favors Las Vegas: 73.1 overall grade versus Los Angeles 59.8; Raiders pass rush 77.6 versus Chargers 60.9.
    • Both teams have seven rest days and the game is non-neutral; the structural matchup supports a Raiders cushion against the posted -7/-7.5 range.
    • Coverage is only one game per team this season, so this is LEAN and relies on a prior-season blend; Las Vegas posted -0.17 offensive EPA/play in 2025.
  17. Ashton Jeanty first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeanty owns RB1 status, a workhorse label, and a 73.5% snap share in the live usage snapshot.
    • Las Vegas converted 3 of 4 Week 1 red-zone trips; the Chargers allowed Arizona 2 scores on 5 red-zone trips.
    • Internal coherence: LV first-team-touchdown is only 36¢ while LAC's offense is -0.33 EPA/play to date and LV's defense is -0.30 allowed EPA/play.
    • First touchdown is a high-variance race; a short pass, turnover, field goal, or defensive score beats the usage thesis.
  18. Game total under 43.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raiders allowed -0.30 EPA/play in Week 1; Chargers produced -0.33 offensive EPA/play.
    • Week 1 pace was 32.44 seconds/play for Las Vegas and 28.98 for Los Angeles, limiting possessions.
    • Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell and Brock Bowers are out; the 43.5 total still offers a modest scoring-compression angle.
    • Week 1 EPA and pace are a one-game sample with substantial variance.
  19. Las Vegas Raiders spread +4.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Defensive EPA allowed also favors Las Vegas: -0.30 versus Los Angeles +0.01 in Week 1.
    • Live at 0-0 with 0:35 left in Q1; Raiders reached the Chargers 1-yard line before a failed fourth down, showing early competitive drive quality.
    • ProphetX board was read at 1:41 PM PDT; this is the main +4.5 spread, not an unpriced alternate.
    • One regular-season game per team is an extremely thin projection sample, and opponent quality differs.

Questions

Who won Raiders vs. Chargers?

The Raiders won 26-14 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.