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FinalNissan Stadium
Eagles1-0
24–20Final
Titans0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI0143724
TEN737320

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tennessee Titans spread +7 −108

Why NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model likes it: Regressed fair line: Philadelphia -5.0; Tennessee +7 supplies roughly two points of spread value.

NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV ModelUp 33% return this season · 17 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-24 on this game · −20% return

  1. Philadelphia Eagles spread −6.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsSunday Ledger, ProphetX NFL Ladder +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
      • PARTIAL coverage: both teams have only one current-season game, so efficiency estimates are thin and prior-year form is not incorporated.
      ProphetX NFL Ladder
      • Partial anchor: p_anchor 54.4%; one-point Eagles adjustment from efficiency/explosive edge gives p_model 57.3%.
      • EV_anchor +3.0%; EV_model +8.5%; gap 2.9 points, below the 4.0-point Partial fire limit.
      • Partial coverage: Week 2 provides only one current-season game per team, below the four-game Full threshold.
      Key Number Pairs
      • Season-to-date EPA: Philadelphia offense +0.02 vs Tennessee -0.23; Eagles defense -0.04 allowed vs Titans -0.01.
      • 2026 PFF grades favor Philadelphia 75.9, 54.6 overall; QB passing grades favor Hurts 75.6, 52.8 over Ward.
      • Only one 2026 regular-season game supplies the efficiency inputs; the projection is partial and variance is high.
    • Philadelphia Eagles spread −73 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      3 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +1
      Why 3 models like it
      Drift
      • Philadelphia's def EPA/play allowed is -0.04 versus Tennessee's -0.01; both teams have seven rest days.
      • The 2026 sample is only one game per team, so the efficiency rating is highly noisy.
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • PHI offense EPA/play +0.02 versus TEN defense -0.01; TEN offense -0.23 versus PHI defense -0.04, one 2026 game.
      • PFF 2026 card favors Philadelphia: 76.0 offense and 65.1 defense versus Tennessee's 60.2 and 51.1.
      • Week 2 leaves only one completed 2026 game of EPA data; this is LEAN and not a full-strength projection.
      Long Way Home
      • Eagles produced 2.0 points/drive versus Tennessee's 1.0; the efficiency gap supports margin upside.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's home defense keeps Philadelphia from separating and wins the field-position game.
    • Game total under 39.53 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      3 modelsLong Way Home, Number Earned +1
      Why 3 models like it
      Long Way Home
      • Titans' regular-season offense is -0.23 EPA/play, 0.02 explosive rate, and 1.00 points per drive.
      • Philadelphia's defense is allowing -0.04 EPA/play; Eagles offense is only +0.02 EPA/play and 0.39 success rate.
      • Most likely loss: Philadelphia's 0.13 explosive rate produces short fields or quick scores and the game reaches 40.
      Number Earned
      • Model estimates 55.5% under; fair price about -125 versus DraftKings -108.
      • Combined Week 1 points-per-drive baseline was 3.0: Eagles 2.0, Titans 1.0.
      • One-week inputs are thin; Eagles' 0.13 explosive-play rate can create quick points.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Edge class: PROJECTION, Tennessee's offense posted -0.23 EPA/play and a 0.02 explosive rate through Week 1.
      • Philadelphia's defense is at -0.04 EPA/play allowed; both starting quarterbacks are confirmed and neither is on the injury report.
      • Only one current-season game supplies the efficiency sample; this is a Partial-tier leg with substantial model uncertainty.
    • Tennessee Titans spread +72 models agreeHigh conviction
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on DraftKings

      2 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, Resting Money
      Why 2 models like it
      NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
      • Regressed fair line: Philadelphia -5.0; Tennessee +7 supplies roughly two points of spread value.
      • 2025 opponent-adjusted profile: Philadelphia -0.02 offensive EPA, -0.05 defensive EPA; Tennessee -0.14, +0.09.
      • Philadelphia's 2026 PFF grades lead Tennessee 75.9 to 54.6 overall and 75.6 to 52.8 passing.
      Resting Money
      • Directional coherence check: backing Tennessee Titans +7, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The Titans may be patiently queued below the quote because participants want a better number, not because the side wins at +7.
    • Philadelphia Eagles to winFavorite2 models agree
      +31%Won

      Taken at −325 on DraftKings

      2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Brewing NFL Ml
      Why 2 models like it
      high-confidence main markets
      • Independent win probability: 79%; fair price approximately -376 versus DraftKings -325.
      • Current EPA gap favors Philadelphia: Eagles offense +0.02 versus Tennessee -0.23 per play.
      • Eagles have several defensive availability uncertainties, including Jalen Carter and Andrew Mukuba designations.
      Brewing NFL Ml
      • Hurts leads Ward 75.6 to 52.8 in 2026 PFF passing grade, while CPOE is less negative for Hurts (-2.1% versus -5.6%).
      • Eagles offensive EPA/play was +0.02 versus Tennessee's -0.23 in the game-feature read; Philadelphia also led 1.88 to 1.61 in recent points per drive.
      • The modeled edge is only 4.7 points, below the brief's high-conviction threshold.
    • Philadelphia Eagles exact margin 1-6Long shot
      +669%Won

      Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle makes Philadelphia -7.5 at +108; devigged reference favors Eagles -7.5 with Tennessee +7.5 at 53.1%.
      • The 1-6 bucket contains key margins 3, 4, and 6; their observed mass is the structural projection edge against generic smoothing.
      • The estimate uses leaguewide margin reweighting and sharp spread direction, not a team-specific scoring model.
    Show all 29 picks
    1. Over total 43.5
      +170%Won

      Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    2. Philadelphia Eagles spread +9.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle main spread: Tennessee +7.5 -119 / Philadelphia -7.5 +108; devigged Philadelphia cover probability is 46.9%.
      • Partial coverage: Philadelphia and Tennessee each have only 1 current-season game, below the 4-game Full threshold.
    3. Game total over 19.5 1H
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7 rest days each, no rest mismatch, but both starters pass the game-day QB gate.
      • PHI offense +0.02 vs TEN -0.23; PHI defense -0.04 vs TEN -0.01.
      • Pace: PHI 31.90 vs TEN 25.61; PPD 2.0 vs 1.0 supports early scoring.
      • Rest gap is zero, removing the brief’s strongest first-half lever.
    4. Philadelphia Eagles first-half to winFavorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • raw Kalshi 0.65 is a fraction, converted to 65¢; Pinnacle first-half -237/+203 devigs to 68.1% Philadelphia.
      • EPA gap: Philadelphia offense +0.02 versus Tennessee -0.23; Philadelphia defense -0.04 versus Tennessee -0.01.
      • Points-per-drive and pace favor the scripted road side: Philadelphia 2.0 PPD and 31.90 pace versus Tennessee 1.0 and 25.61.
      • Rest is neutral: both teams show 7 days, removing the brief's strongest signal.
    5. Under total 39.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Jalen Hurts and Cam Ward starter slots confirmed at 6:01 AM; neither QB is currently Out, Doubtful, or Questionable.
      • One-game sample: both teams have only one 2026 regular-season game; prior-year form is a volatility risk.
    6. Dallas Goedert over 3.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −132 on FanDuel

      Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 94.5% snap share and 28 routes in Week 1; latest depth chart lists Goedert TE1.
      • Recent role: Week 1 2026 94.5%/28 routes; Weeks 17, 16, 15 of 2025 79.6%/24, 87.1%/36, 73.9%/17.
      • Philadelphia averaged 61.3 plays and a 53.2% pass rate in 2025; Week 1 was 54 plays at 52.8%; project 58 plays, 31 dropbacks, and 4.0 receptions.
      • Elijah Moore's confirmed inactive status is not a direct Goedert vacuum because Moore is listed WR6; no injury boost is assumed.
    7. Philadelphia Eagles–Tennessee Titans 1H total over 17.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected 1H total 20.5: +0.75 points versus the naive 39.5 full-game total split.
      • Three-point projection gap versus the 17.5 1H contract clears the 1.5-point total threshold.
      • Week 1 PPD: Eagles 2.00, Titans 1.00; combined pace was 28.8 seconds per play.
      • Titans produced only 1.00 PPD and a 2.0% explosive-play rate in Week 1.
    8. Tennessee Titans team total under 17.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Titans offensive EPA-to-date is -0.23 against Eagles defensive EPA-to-date of -0.04, a matchup-level lean below 17.5.
      • Titans' latest points per drive was 1.00; the four-game 2026 sample averages 1.48 points per drive.
      • 39.5 game total minus 7.5 spread, divided by two, implies roughly 16.0 Titans points; 17.5 sits above the spread-split baseline.
      • The 2026 sample is only four team-game rows and includes preseason; touchdown and field-goal variance is substantial.
    9. DeVonta Smith under 58.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-draw joint sim: 56.5% probability of staying under 58.5 receiving yards versus 52.4% implied at -110.
      • 97.1% route rate across 33 routes in Week 1 confirms near-every-down participation.
      • Six targets and 53 yards last week leave little cushion above the posted threshold in a 39.5-point environment.
      • The route and target sample is only one game, so the yardage tail is wide.
    10. Wan'Dale Robinson over 4.5 receptions
      +103%Won

      Taken at +103 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-draw joint sim: 57% probability of 5+ receptions versus 49.3% implied at +103.
      • 97.1% route rate and 34 routes in Week 1 establish a full-time route profile.
      • Six targets on 34 routes produced a 17.6% target rate; five catches provide a strong recent catch baseline.
      • Route and target sample is only one game; hierarchical shrinkage remains material.
    11. Dallas Goedert first touchdown scorerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +950 on BetMGM

      NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • TEN's defense allows -0.01 EPA/play; PHI has the stronger efficiency profile and a roughly 23.25-point implied team total.
      • Goedert played 94.5% of snaps, ran 28 routes and ranked TE1; he drew five Week 1 targets.
      • Week 1 PBP recorded Goedert's touchdown from the Washington 17; his 2025 line included 11 TDs on 82 targets.
      • The current red-zone sample is only one game, with one directly logged Goedert red-zone target.
    12. Philadelphia Eagles −7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA strategy score: Eagles 0.14 vs Titans -0.73; EPA edge +0.87 clears +0.50.
      • Primary EPA edge +0.46; Eagles lead offensive pass, rush, and defensive pass components.
      • Oriented z-components: Eagles -0.31/-? pass; +0.94 rush; +0.08/+0.21 pass/rush defense; Titans trail materially.
      • Eagles offensive pass z is -0.31 and defensive pass z is only +0.08; the score is not uniformly dominant.
    13. Saquon Barkley 1+ touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Barkley owns the Eagles' RB1 depth-chart slot and a 70.9% Week 1 snap share; the next backs were 18.2% and 10.9%.
      • Goal-line-role judgment is derived from those role proxies plus Philadelphia's 3 red-zone trips and 2 conversions in Week 1; no single goal-line column exists.
      • Philadelphia's pregame profile is stronger: +0.02 offensive EPA/play and 2.0 points/drive versus Tennessee's -0.23 and 1.0; favorite script should concentrate late red-zone carries on the workhorse.
      • One-game sample: Barkley's Week 1 usage is useful but not a stable season estimate.
    14. Game total under 40
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 40 pushes at exactly 40; adjacent under 40.5 wins at 40.
      • ProphetX: under 40 is -107 (51.69c) versus under 40.5 at -116 (53.70c), only a 2.01-point gap.
      • League-wide 2016, 25 frequency is not matchup-specific, and scoring conditions may differ.
    15. Tennessee Titans spread +7 (pushes if Philadelphia wins by exactly 7)
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Titans +7 refunds on an exact 7-point Philadelphia win; Titans +7.5 wins.
      • ProphetX Titans +7 is 50.0c (+100) versus 54.95c (-122) for +7.5.
      • The six-season margin frequency is league-wide, not matchup-specific, and makes no projection claim.
    16. PHI-TEN 3Q total under 11.5Favorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pregame points per drive were 2.0 for Philadelphia and 1.0 for Tennessee, a 3.0 combined baseline over one 2026 game.
      • Philadelphia's +0.02 offensive EPA/play and -0.04 defensive EPA/play profile better than Tennessee's -0.23 and -0.01 matchup inputs.
      • Q3 is the adjusted semi-scripted quarter: unlike 4Q game-state chaos, halftime adjustments still operate within the pregame efficiency and pace envelope.
      • Only one prior 2026 game feeds each team's points-per-drive baseline; the estimate is thin.
    17. Philadelphia Eagles first-half spread −3.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 to-date points per drive are PHI 2.0 and TEN 1.0, one game each.
      • Blended pace is 28.76 seconds per play, implying roughly 10, 11 combined first-half drives; the drive-efficiency gap points to about a 5-point PHI half margin, not a mechanical 3.5.
      • The 2026 PHI and TEN efficiency samples are only one game each; the estimated 5-point half margin is fragile.
    18. Game first-half total under 19.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fitted 1H mean is ~18.0 points from 54/50 prior-week plays, 31.90/25.61 sec/play pace, and 2.0/1.0 points per drive.
      • TEN’s current -0.23 offensive EPA/play and 1.0 points per drive are a material drag on the combined early scoring rate.
      • Full-game total SD is 13.95; square-root drive scaling keeps half SD near 9.9, not a linear 7.0, widening the correct half distribution.
      • The 2.0/1.0 points-per-drive inputs are only one game old and could regress sharply.
    19. Cam Ward over 11.5 rushing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 100% snap share; four rushing attempts for 21 yards in Week 1.
      • Last three regular-season games: 21, 11, and 10 rushing yards; 14.0-yard average.
      • Titans are 7-point underdogs; trailing conditions can create scramble opportunities.
      • Only one 2026 regular-season game; two observations come from 2025.
    20. Tennessee Titans +7
      +98%Won

      Taken at −102 on DraftKings

      NFL Market Divergence ModelNew model
      Why it likes it
      • Four books quote both sides at +7; DK/BetMGM -102, FanDuel -108, Caesars -109 form three price clusters.
      • Pinnacle supports Tennessee at +7.5 (-123), so the sharp reference is aligned rather than opposing the position.
      • The +7 market has been unchanged for more than two days; no recent repricing signal is present.
      • The divergence is only modestly above the 3-point sides threshold, so variance dominates.
    21. Total points under 40.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • One-game 2026 inputs: Philadelphia offense +0.02 EPA/play versus Tennessee -0.23; Eagles defense -0.04 allowed versus Titans -0.01.
      • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Philadelphia on both sides: 76.0 offense/65.1 defense versus Tennessee's 60.2/51.1.
      • Only one 2026 game is in the coverage sample for each team, so this is LEAN and uses prior-season form as a blend.
    22. Tennessee Titans to winLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +290 on FanDuel

      NFL babyDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • FPI projects Philadelphia by 5.47 points, below the market's Eagles -7 spread.
      • Public betting report shows 94% of ATS money on Philadelphia; the spread held at 7 from opening to current.
      • FPI is a vendor baseline, and each team has only one 2026 regular-season game in the efficiency sample.
    23. Philadelphia Eagles first touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia's pregame offense EPA/play is +0.02 versus Tennessee's -0.23; the Eagles are the clear favorite.
      • Saquon Barkley is the live RB1/workhorse at 70.9% projected snap share; Tennessee splits RB snaps nearly evenly (Pollard 52%, Spears 50%).
      • Philadelphia produced 2 red-zone scores on 3 attempts last week; Tennessee had only 1 red-zone trip, while the Eagles' expected lead supports a run-heavier goal-line script.
      • The first-touchdown window is highly kickoff- and drive-sequence-dependent; opening possession and scripted plays are unknown pre-kick.

    Questions

    Who won Eagles vs. Titans?

    The Eagles won 24-20 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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