Get app
FinalReliant Stadium
Bengals1-0
20–6Final
Texans0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
CIN0710320
HOU03306

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cincinnati Bengals spread +3 −118

Why EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner likes it: Cincinnati's recent offense EPA/play is +0.15 versus Houston's -0.05.

EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerUp 5% return this season · 42 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-11 on this game · −23% return

  1. Cincinnati Bengals spread +32 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    2 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Cincinnati's recent offense EPA/play is +0.15 versus Houston's -0.05.
    • Bengals' recent defensive EPA/play allowed is -0.10; Houston's is +0.03.
    • Burrow's back tightness remains a real performance uncertainty despite the coach's clearance.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Cincinnati 3 versus Houston 3; backing Cincinnati +3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count is tied 3-3 rather than corroborating Cincinnati.
  2. Game first-half total under 22.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CIN and HOU enter with 30.42 and 30.18 seconds per play; neither profile implies an unusually high first-half drive count.
    • The full-game total is 45.5, while the half board's 22.5 is slightly more than a mechanical half only after allowing for a typical late-game scoring bump.
    • Square-root scaling matters: first-half variance scales with the square root of drives, not linearly with half the game's variance, making a modest under projection more defensible than simple halving.
    • CIN and HOU posted early-season points-per-drive figures of 2.89 and 2.82, which can produce a fast over if those efficiency rates persist.
  3. Houston Texans −30.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    Long OddsNew model
    Why it likes it
    • The +30.5 rung breaks monotonicity: Bengals +28.5 is about 97.8% at the quote midpoint, while +30.5 falls to about 94.5%.
    • The specific NO contract is Houston Texans -30.5; its live buy price is 9.5¢, tied to the out-of-step far-end rung.
    • The Pinnacle live odds request returned no current market, so there is no independent sharp confirmation.
  4. Woody Marks over 7.5 rushing attempts
    +85%Won

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 W1: 50.6% snaps, 18 routes, 44.3% route share; 2025 W18: 45.6% / 16 / 45.7%; W17: 67.7% / 16 / 55.4%; W15: 22.4% / 6 / 18.2%.
    • Observed role is committee_lead and RB-room rank 1; run-snap rate 22.5%, role-card route participation 37.5%; usage outranks the declared RB2 depth-chart slot.
    • Houston projects 68, 74 plays, 38.6, 40.6 dropbacks and roughly 29, 31 rushes; Marks projects 8.1 carries.
    • David Montgomery is the declared RB1 and early-down hammer; he had 20 carries to Marks's 9 in Week 1.
  5. Game first-quarter total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors agreed: nearby CIN spread rungs imply roughly a 3-point Houston margin, while 44.5, 46.5 total rungs imply a 45.5-point game total.
    • Fitted joint reference: margin mean about Houston +3.0, margin SD about 4.5; total mean 45.5, total SD 13.3.
    • The sqrt(drives)-scaled Q1 sub-model gives mean 11.4 and SD 6.7, pricing Q1 over 8.5 near 67%.
    • The total 45.5 anchor showed only one recorded change event today; its quote may be less liquid than the live snapshot suggests.
  6. Houston Texans team total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fitted Houston range is 26, 27 points from 0.12 offensive EPA/play, 2.82 points/drive, and Cincinnati’s +0.14 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • the board’s Houston 23.5 plus Cincinnati 21.5 split totals 45.0 versus Pinnacle’s 45.5 game total; the 2-point team gap also nearly mirrors Houston -2.5.
    • Joe Burrow remains officially questionable as of the latest 7:30 AM PDT confirmation; a late inactive could change Cincinnati’s pace and Houston’s field-position distribution.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Game total under 45.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's last-five offense averaged -0.16 EPA/play and Cincinnati's last-five defense allowed -0.15 EPA/play; Pinnacle also shaded the reference total slightly under.
    • Joe Burrow is officially listed Questionable with back soreness, although the NFL reports he is good to go; a normal Burrow workload raises the over risk.
  2. David Montgomery first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +500 on BetMGM

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate 20.5%; fair price +388 versus BetMGM +500 (16.7% implied).
    • Houston posted 0.13 EPA/play, 47.3% success, 13.5% explosive rate and 2.82 points/drive in Week 1.
    • Houston converted 4 of 5 red-zone trips; Montgomery scored on 1-yard and 18-yard rushes plus a 7-yard reception.
    • Woody Marks held a near-even 50.6% snap share, so goal-line access is not exclusive.
  3. Houston Texans spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current spread: Houston Texans -3 at DraftKings -102; the line is used only to state the wager, not to score the strategy.
    • Houston strategy score 0.17 vs Cincinnati -0.43: EPA edge +0.60 Houston, clearing the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary EPA score: Houston +0.14 vs Cincinnati -0.14; primary edge +0.28 Houston, clearing the 0.20 trigger.
    • Early-season sample is small; the team baselines blend 2025 regular season with 2026 Week 1 data.
  4. Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans game total over 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  5. Houston Texans spread −4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston -4 pushes on exactly a 4-point Houston win; Houston -4.5 loses on that outcome.
    • ProphetX quotes Houston -4 at +134 (42.74¢) versus Houston -4.5 at +144 (40.98¢): only a 1.76¢ gap for the push option.
    • A Houston win by 1-3 still loses; only an exact 4-point win pushes, while margins of 5+ are required to win.
  6. Game total over 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  7. Chase Brown over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 catches in Week 1, 42.9% above the 3.5 line.
    • Averaged 4.2 receptions across his last five 2025 games, 20% above this line.
    • Cincinnati passed on 57.1% of Week 1 plays with +0.29 offensive EPA/play.
    • Only one 2026 game and a five-game historical form sample support the projection.
  8. Houston Texans −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 48% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Luck scores: Cincinnati 1.44 vs Houston 0.10; Bengals are the fade team by 1.34.
    • Primary luck: Cincinnati 1.05 vs Houston -0.01; the 1.06 gap clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • Cincinnati's fumble-recovery residual was +2.0; Houston's was -2.0, producing fumble-luck scores of +2.19 and -2.06.
    • Both teams have only one 2026 regular-season game; every luck component is highly sample-sensitive.
  9. Xavier Hutchinson over 32.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.7% offensive snap share and 31 routes in Week 1 clear the usage gate.
    • Houston projects near 24 points at a 45.5 total; its recent pass rate is 57.0%.
    • Cincinnati allowed +0.14 defensive EPA per play across its recent three-game window.
    • Hutchinson produced only 32 yards on six targets in Week 1; the current-season sample is one game.
  10. Chase Brown 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION / venue self-reference: 71.9% snap share and a workhorse label make Brown Cincinnati's primary touchdown-usage back.
    • 9/20 depth chart lists Brown RB1; Burrow was confirmed starting by the Bengals' official game-day page.
    • Cincinnati has only five recorded red-zone trips and two conversions this season, a one-game sample.
  11. Cincinnati Bengals to win
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bengals.com’s 9:30am PDT inactive report confirms Joe Burrow active and starting; ProphetX still offered +136 at 9:37am.
    • Reference label: NO REFERENCE, no independent market visibly repriced after the official status resolution.
    • ProphetX moneyline was +136 at opening and remained +136 after the Burrow decision, leaving the pregame uncertainty embedded in the price.
    • Most likely loss: Burrow’s back tightness limits him and Houston wins outright despite his active designation.

Questions

Who won Bengals vs. Texans?

The Bengals won 20-6 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.