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Updated

FinalEmpower Field at Mile High
Jaguars1-0
13-20
Broncos0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
JAX0103013
DEN0331420

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 20.5 first half 85¢

Why Split Decision likes it: Rest gap is only Jacksonville 7 days to Denver 6; no material short-week inflation.

Split DecisionUp 8% return this season · 199 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-6 on this game · +25% return

  1. Game total under 28.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 77% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • rough mean 45.5 and SD 14.5 produce about 12% for Under 28.5; Polymarket US costs 8%.
    • 2026 season-to-date: Denver has 48 plays and 0.83 points per drive; Jacksonville has 58 plays and 3.78 points per drive.
    • Live identity check: official Jaguars information lists Trevor Lawrence as starter; Denver's current depth chart lists Bo Nix as QB1.
    • Tier 2 interpolation: no sharp book quotes 28.5; the only sharp total is 17 points away, so the model-tail error is material.
  2. Game total over 20.5 first halfFavorite
    +18%Won

    Taken at 85¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap is only Jacksonville 7 days to Denver 6; no material short-week inflation.
    • EPA baseline is extreme: JAX offense +0.31 versus DEN −0.44; JAX defense −0.31 versus DEN +0.09.
    • live score is 0-0 with 9:47 left in Q1, leaving 19:47 of first-half clock.
    • JAX’s +0.31 offensive EPA and 3.78 points per drive can produce an explosive early scoring drive.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half winner
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap: Jacksonville has 7 rest days versus Denver's 6, the brief's strongest first-half lever.
    • to-date: Jacksonville offense +0.31 and defense −0.31 versus Denver offense −0.44 and defense +0.09.
    • Success rate is .6552 for Jacksonville versus .3542 for Denver; pace is also faster for Jacksonville (36.91 versus 33.26 seconds/play).
    • One regular-season game is a thin EPA and points-per-drive sample; the model may be overreacting.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • JAX +0.31 offensive EPA/play versus DEN +0.09 defensive EPA allowed; DEN −0.44 offense versus JAX −0.31 defense, one 2026 game each.
    • Partial-coverage prior: PFF's latest 2026 card favors Jacksonville 89.3 offense/64.1 defense versus Denver 47.9/48.1.
    • LEAN only: both teams have one current-season feature row despite the 17-row historical coverage check; early-season priors can be noisy.
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • current one-game EPA read: JAX offense +0.31/play vs DEN defense +0.09 allowed; DEN offense −0.44 vs JAX defense −0.31 allowed.
    • Prior-season blend still favors Jacksonville: 2025 JAX offense +0.05 and Denver −0.02; current form has widened that gap.
    • PFF 2026 card: JAX 89.3 offense/64.1 defense versus DEN 47.9/48.1; JAX OL pass-block grade 74.6 versus DEN 58.1.
    • Only one completed 2026 feature row per team, below the three-game coverage threshold; the prior-season blend is load-bearing and caps this at LEAN.
  6. Denver Broncos team total under 23.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 3% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −0.44 Denver offensive EPA/play faces −0.31 Jacksonville defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Denver produced 0.83 points/drive and 176 yards in Week 1; its red-zone conversion was 1-of-2.
    • Matchup fit centers Denver near 16, 18 points, below the 23.5 threshold.
    • One-game sample: 0.83 points/drive and 1-of-2 red-zone conversion can regress sharply.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Game total under 42.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 42.5 wins at 42, while under 42 pushes at exactly 42
    • Historical exact-total frequency is a six-season aggregate and may not match this matchup's scoring distribution
  2. Denver Broncos spread +3.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver +3.5 wins if Denver loses by exactly 3; Denver +3 pushes on that exact margin.
    • ProphetX charges 69.70¢ for Denver +3.5 versus 68.25¢ for Denver +3: only a 1.45¢ premium to convert that push mass into wins.
    • ProphetX's own adjacent prices are the reference, not an independent fair line; the venue may already partly account for the push option.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half spread +2.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: the full-game board is around Jacksonville +1.5 and the 2H board is Jacksonville +2.5, implying a roughly Jacksonville −1 first-half expectation; +2.5 is the outlier.
    • Fresh matchup inputs: Jacksonville off EPA/play +0.31 versus Denver −0.44; Jacksonville defensive EPA allowed −0.31 versus Denver +0.09.
    • Square-root scaling matters: first-half margin SD scales with the square root of drives, not a linear half of full-game variance, supporting a wider half distribution around the fitted mean.
    • 2026 efficiency and points-per-drive inputs cover only two games: Jacksonville 1.89 PPD, Denver 0.42 PPD, a thin and volatile sample.
  4. Game second-half total over 22.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total 45.5 plus the 1H total 21.5 leaves roughly 24.0 points for the 2H; the board offers Over 22.5 at 52c.
    • The 2H scoring bump makes the 1.5-point reconciliation gap more meaningful, while half variance scales with the square root of drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance.
    • Drive/efficiency fit centers the 2H near 23.5, 24.0: Jacksonville current offensive EPA/play +0.31 versus Denver −0.44, with 2025 points/drive of 2.40 versus 2.03.
    • Second-half scoring is conditioned on halftime score and game state; the rung rule makes this less certain than a 1H projection.
  5. Under total 52.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle-anchored p_anchor at Under 52.5 is 69.6%; Kalshi NO 69.5¢ is within 0.1 points, satisfying derived-reference validation.
    • Jaguars defense allowed −0.31 EPA/play while Denver averaged −0.44 offensive EPA/play and 0.83 points/drive; mixed pace adds no over lift.
    • The under loses at 53 or more points; Jacksonville’s 0.31 offensive EPA/play and Denver’s poor defense can create a shootout.
  6. Jaylen Waddle under 12.7 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorDown 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.2 fantasy points on 3 targets in Denver's opener; the Kalshi line is 12.7.
    • Jacksonville allowed −0.15 defensive EPA/play over its last 10; Denver's recent pass rate is 56.8%.
    • PFF has Waddle at 0.07 YPRR and 3 targets in the only 2026 game.
    • 74.5% snap share and 29 routes can convert into a target rebound.
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars first touchdown
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • JAX opened 2026 with 34 points and 2-for-2 red-zone conversions; Denver allowed Kansas City 3 conversions on 5 red-zone trips.
    • Pregame features favor Jacksonville: +0.31 offensive EPA/play, .655 success rate, and 3.78 points/drive versus Denver's −0.44, .354, and .83.
    • RJ Harvey was ruled out by ESPN at 11:39 AM; Denver's live depth chart promotes J.K. Dobbins to RB1, reducing Denver's established goal-line continuity.
    • Only one regular-season game supplies each team's red-zone sample; rates are extremely thin.
  8. Bhayshul Tuten over 0.5 touchdowns
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 49.1% snap share and an early-down-hammer role support goal-line access; this is a proxy-derived role judgment, not a ground-truth goal-line column.
    • Denver allowed Kansas City 3 touchdowns on 5 red-zone trips in Week 1; Tuten is the Jaguars' current RB1 by the game-day depth chart.
    • Polymarket US quotes YES at 34¢ with both sides live; usage-based estimate is modestly above the venue price.
    • The backfield remains a committee: Chris Rodriguez Jr. had a 40.4% snap share versus Tuten's 49.1%.
  9. Jacksonville Jaguars first score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 50% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal-coherence identity: valid Jacksonville yes 0.73 plus Denver yes 0.49 already sums to 1.22 before the neither leg.
    • Denver received the opening kickoff (drive sequence 0); its opening drive punted, and Jacksonville's next drive also punted.
    • Opening-drive sample: Denver scored on 8 of 20 drives (40%); Jacksonville scored on 6 of 19 (31.6%).
    • The first-score exclusive sum is incomplete because fs-none is a 0.04 placeholder with no no-side quote; the structural signal is weaker than a fully quoted triple.
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars first second-half touchdown: No
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 50% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Second-half first-touchdown prices sum to 1.21, materially above the exhaustive-set identity; the JAX YES leg is the most overstated candidate.
    • Opening-drive sample: Jacksonville scored points on 4 of 10 drives and touchdowns on 3 of 10; Denver scored points on 4 of 10 and touchdowns on 2 of 10.
    • The venue prices JAX first second-half touchdown at 0.56 YES / 0.45 NO despite the limited drive evidence and unknown opening-kickoff winner.
    • The opening-kickoff winner, which determines second-half possession, was not confirmed; this is the largest missing input.

Questions

Who won Jaguars vs. Broncos?

The Broncos won 20-13 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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