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FinalMetLife Stadium
Packers0-1
20–17Final
Jets1-0
Score by period
Team12345T
GB07010320
NYJ0773017

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 37.5 total 29¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Only one current-season game, but both offenses are below zero EPA/play: GB -0.15 and NYJ -0.01; success rates are 42.9% and 43.3%.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-16 on this game · −7% return

  1. New York Jets to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Brewing NFL Ml +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Jets offensive EPA-to-date is -0.01 versus Green Bay's -0.15; official Jets preview identifies Geno Smith and Jordan Love as the starters.
    • Kalshi same-game win series: Jets opened 38.5%, current 38.5%, flat, not moving against the position.
    • Jets safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, creating a secondary vulnerability that can erase the defensive-efficiency edge.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Week-1 opponent-adjusted defense: Jets allowed -0.23 EPA/play versus Packers at +0.03.
    • PFF passing grades favor Geno Smith 88.4 to Jordan Love 53.0; both QBs are listed active at 6:01 AM PDT.
    • Only one 2026 game makes the current efficiency and QB samples thin.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • current to-date EPA: Jets offense -0.01/play versus Packers defense +0.03 allowed; Packers offense -0.15 versus Jets defense -0.23 allowed.
    • Current defensive/offensive mismatch points toward New York despite the one-game sample; both teams have seven rest days and the game is not neutral.
    • Coverage gate is not fully met: each team has only 1 completed 2026 feature row; this is a Week 2 prior-blend LEAN.
    Number Earned
    • 44% independent Jets win estimate implies a fair line near +127.
    • 2026 Week 1 net EPA: Jets +0.22 versus Green Bay -0.18.
    • The current-season sample is one game; Green Bay's 2025 net EPA profile was materially stronger.
  2. New York Jets spread +3.53 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsSunday Ledger, NFL Trench Mismatch +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Jets defense: -0.23 EPA/play versus Green Bay's +0.03 after Week 1.
    • Jets produced 2.09 points per drive versus Green Bay's 1.92; modest home-dog support.
    • Packers' 0.16 explosive rate versus the Jets' 0.12 can create a backdoor cover.
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Calculated TrenchScore: Jets offense +0.83 vs Packers offense -0.70; NYJ edge +1.53.
    • Primary pass-trench scores: Jets +0.75 vs Packers -0.68; differential +1.43, above the 0.25 trigger.
    • PFF and 2026 team data are effectively one-game samples, so the z-scores are noisy.
    House Rules
    • Jets +3.5 wins on Packers by exactly 3; Jets +3 returns stake (push).
    • ProphetX quotes Jets +3.5 -116 (53.70¢) versus Jets +3 +105 (48.78¢); the gap is only 4.92 points.
    • Jets +3.5 loses whenever Packers win by 4 or more; this is not a matchup projection.
  3. New York Jets spread +33 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX Pairs, Sunday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • PIT Week-2 lens: Jets defense is -0.23 EPA/play versus Packers offense at -0.15, a 0.22 EPA/play matchup gap before home field.
    • Jets offense (-0.01 EPA/play) also rates above the Packers defense (+0.03 allowed) in the opposing matchup.
    • Tier 2 / Partial: Week 2 supplies only one current-season game, below the brief's three-game Full threshold.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Current matchup ordering favors New York on both sides of the efficiency comparison; rest is 7-7 and the game is not neutral.
    • PFF latest card reinforces the side: Jets 80.1 overall / 72.8 defense versus Packers 60.0 / 53.6.
    • Most likely loss: Jordan Love's passing offense overcomes the Jets' EPA defense and Green Bay wins by four or more.
    Key Number Pairs
    • 407 historical NFL games landed on margin 3, versus 128 at 1 and 130 at 2; +3 captures key-number push mass.
    • Current features: Jets defense allowed -0.23 EPA/play versus Packers offense at -0.15; Jets offense was -0.01 versus Green Bay defense at +0.03.
    • FPI reference projects Green Bay at 62.7% to win and by 3.48 points, directly conflicting with this matchup read.
  4. Green Bay Packers −3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, NFL baby
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA strategy score: Green Bay +0.45 versus New York -1.12, a +1.58 edge.
    • Primary EPA edge is +0.89: Green Bay +0.14 versus New York -0.74.
    • The split EPA sample is not opponent-adjusted, and the rush/pass classification excludes uncategorized play types.
    NFL baby
    • Last-five net EPA/play: Packers -0.14 vs Jets -0.39, a +0.25 edge for Green Bay.
    • Average offensive plays were 61.0 for Green Bay and 62.4 for New York; the EPA gap implies roughly 15 points before home field.
    • This uses an unadjusted five-game EPA proxy, not opponent-adjusted efficiency; conviction is capped low.
  5. Under 37.5 totalLong shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Only one current-season game, but both offenses are below zero EPA/play: GB -0.15 and NYJ -0.01; success rates are 42.9% and 43.3%.
    • The Jets defense has allowed -0.23 EPA/play; both teams' opposing early form supports a lower scoring distribution.
    • Most likely loss: Green Bay's 15.7% explosive rate and 19.5% PROE produce enough quick scores to clear 38.
  6. Under 43.5 total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle total 44.0: Over -106 / Under -106; devigged Over 50.0%, Under 50.0%, pulled 7:36 AM PDT.
    • Model shifts the total mean -1.35 points: combined EPA is suppressive, while GB PROE +19.5% is the principal counterweight.
    • Partial rather than Full coverage: both teams have only one 2026 game, so prior-year form and variance matter.
Show all 25 picks
  1. New York Jets first touchdown no
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Historical first-TD events: Green Bay 22, New York 10, across 36 games per team.
    • Opening-drive touchdown rate: Green Bay 9/36 (25.0%); New York 4/36 (11.1%).
    • Green Bay received the opening kickoff; both opening drives punted before Green Bay's third drive.
    • The opening-possession edge has partially elapsed after two punts; current raw drive feed is not a full live snapshot.
  2. New York Jets first score no
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opening-drive sample: Packers scored on 15/37 first possessions (40.5%); Jets scored on 12/35 (34.3%).
    • Defense-adjusted opening signal favors Green Bay: Jets allowed opponent first-drive scores in 21/35 games (60.0%); Green Bay allowed 14/37 (37.8%).
    • Exclusive first-score quotes sum to 1.08 using the 0.03 none quote; the Jets YES leg is the clearest overstatement candidate.
    • Opening-kickoff recipient is unpublished before the coin toss; possession order could materially shift first-score probabilities.
  3. Green Bay Packers spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  4. Game total over 7.5 in Q1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence only: full-game anchors agreed around GB margin +3.0 (SD 7.0) and total 44.3 (SD 8.5).
    • Quarter sub-model scales total variance by sqrt(4): mean 11.1, SD 4.25; over 7.5 prices near 80%.
    • Anchor activity was confirmed: GB -2.5 changed at 2:36 PM PT Friday; full total 43.5 changed three times Friday.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an external sharp-line or team projection.
  5. Green Bay Packers team total under 24.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Green Bay's offense is -0.15 EPA/play while the Jets defense is -0.23 EPA/play allowed in the game feature row.
    • Green Bay's season-to-date points per drive is 1.84, with only 1 red-zone conversion on 4 attempts.
    • The board looks spread-split: 23.5 GB plus 20.5 NYJ equals 44.0, while the game total is 44/44.5 and the implied margin is about 3 versus a 3.5-point spread.
    • The warehouse is internally noisy: the game feature row says Week 2 while the team rollup has five games; model confidence is therefore moderated.
  6. Breece Hall over 0.5 touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.2% snap share and 23 carries versus Braelon Allen's 40.3% and 11 carries establish Hall as New York's lead early-down runner.
    • RB role is explicitly labeled early_down_hammer; goal-line-role judgment is derived from this usage proxy, not a single goal-line column.
    • The Jets converted 2 of 3 red-zone trips in their latest regular-season game; Green Bay allowed 4 of 4 opponent red-zone trips to score in its latest game.
    • Braelon Allen still owns 40.3% of snaps and 11 carries, so this remains a committee rather than a locked-down goal-line role.
  7. Game total under 44
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 44 pushes and refunds at exactly 44 total points; under 44.5 loses at 44. The exact contract is under 44; leg matches.
    • The whole-number price advantage may reflect matchup-specific total distribution rather than a venue error.
  8. Game total under 45
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Across the ladder, under had $7,866 depth versus over $6,871 (depth ratio 1.14).
    • Under carried 3 book levels versus over 2; all three measures agree on the under.
    • ProphetX is the only reference; there is no independent sharp-book confirmation of the order-flow read.
  9. Matthew Golden under 51.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game average: 34.0 receiving yards versus the 51.5-yard line, a 34% gap.
    • Jets defense posted -0.23 EPA/play through Week 1, supporting a difficult receiving matchup.
    • Live roster marks Golden Active; the latest depth chart lists him WR3 in Green Bay's 3WR set.
    • The five-game sample spans seasons and includes Golden's 95-yard Week 1 outlier.
  10. Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets total over 58.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's pregame total was 44.0; 58.5 is 14.5 points into the wing.
    • Prior-game inputs: Green Bay produced 70 plays at 1.92 points/drive; New York produced 67 at 2.09.
    • Tail guard: this rung is 14.5 points above the sharp center, so pace/PROE extrapolation is less reliable.
  11. Game total over 24.5 first half pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; the angle is EPA, pace, and live timing, not rest.
    • Jets defense allows -0.23 EPA/play; Packers offense is -0.15; prior PPD is NYJ 2.09 vs GB 1.92.
    • Score is 0-0 with 7:43 left in Q1; both live QBs are confirmed participating by passing rows.
    • The 24.5 reference is derived from a 20.0 sharp rung, not directly quoted at 24.5; model error is material.
  12. New York Jets 1H spread YES 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest is even: NYJ 7 days, GB 7; the case rests on matchup rather than a fabricated rest edge.
    • EPA gap, NYJ defense: -0.23 allowed; GB offense: -0.15; GB defense: +0.03 allowed versus NYJ offense: -0.01.
    • the live first-half winner position already held is Jets-side; this is a separate, allowed spread market with coherent direction.
    • No rest mismatch: the brief's strongest lever is absent, so this is a thinner EPA-only edge.
  13. New York Jets first-half to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jets defensive EPA-to-date is -0.23 versus Green Bay's +0.03, a 0.26 EPA/play allowed gap.
    • Jets offensive EPA-to-date is -0.01 versus Green Bay's -0.15; the 0.14 EPA/play offensive gap also favors New York.
    • Rest is exactly 7 days versus 7, removing the brief's strongest first-half signal.
  14. Matthew Golden over 49.5 receiving yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 82.4% snap share and 40 routes in Week 1; Golden was Green Bay's primary wideout by routes.
    • 12 Week 1 targets produced 95 yards, making the 49.5-yard line only 52% of that output.
    • The current route/target role clears the usage gate, while the price is playable at -111.
    • New York's 72.8 defensive grade and 73.4 coverage grade are not a favorable matchup signal.
  15. New York Jets +3.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair spread: Packers -1.5, a 2.0-point gap versus the consensus Packers -3.5.
    • 2026 Week 1 matchup data favors New York: Jets defense -0.23 EPA/play allowed versus Green Bay +0.03.
    • Current PFF grades strongly favor the Jets in this matchup: 80.1 overall versus Green Bay 60.0; offense 76.8 versus 64.3.
    • The 2.0-point model gap is below the high-conviction threshold and early-season samples are only one 2026 game.
  16. Game total over 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NYJ pace_to_date 36.18 plus GB 24.22 implies 60.40 combined plays; one 2026 game per team.
    • ProphetX team-total anchors sum to 45.0 (NYJ 20.5 + GB 24.5); 2x its first-half 22 is 44.0.
    • Both teams have seven rest days and the game is non-neutral; no rest adjustment suppresses the pace read.
    • Only one current-season feature row per team; this is LEAN, not a recommended-strength projection.
  17. New York Jets first score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NYJ produced 2.09 points per drive in the pregame feature row, versus GB's 1.92.
    • NYJ's lead back Breece Hall owns a 58.2% snap share and an early-down-hammer role, concentrating early scoring usage.
    • Red-zone proxy: NYJ allowed Tennessee 1 attempt/1 conversion; GB allowed Minnesota 4 attempts/4 conversions, both one-game samples.
    • Coin-toss winner, opening possession, and scripted opening-drive tendencies are unconfirmed.
  18. Green Bay Packers to win
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • captured Pinnacle had Green Bay -140; live DraftKings -131 and FanDuel -120, while ProphetX remains near pick'em.
    • Green Bay's four-game 2026 offense is stronger: -0.01 EPA/play versus New York's -0.14, with a .468 versus .427 success rate.
    • Most likely loss: New York's defense controls the game; its defensive EPA allowed is -0.18 versus Green Bay's +0.08 through four games.
  19. Game total under 44.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The opposing defenses combined for a strong directional setup: Green Bay allowed +0.03 EPA/play, while New York produced -0.23 EPA/play.
    • Rain at MetLife with gusts up to 20 mph is a scoring-environment drag; the adjacent sharp reference is Pinnacle 44 at -106/-106.
    • The most likely loss path is Green Bay's 15.7% Week 1 explosive-play rate creating short-field or chunk-score points despite the rain.

Questions

Who won Packers vs. Jets?

The Packers won 20-17 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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