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FinalState Farm Stadium
Seahawks1-0
31–7Final
Cardinals1-0
Score by period
Team1234T
SEA70101431
ARI07007

Top model pick, graded

Won

Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions +104

Why NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo likes it: 20,000-run joint simulation: 58% for 7+ receptions versus +104 implied 49.0%.

NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 12% this season · 73 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-14 on this game · +22% return

  1. Arizona Cardinals to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Arizona defense: -0.33 EPA/play to date versus Seattle's -0.07 defensive EPA/play; Seattle offense is -0.07 EPA/play.
    • Arizona has the home field and Seattle's rest edge is offset by Seattle's official game-day QB Sam Darnold being out; live ProphetX lists Drew Lock.
    • Week 2 is a partial-sample gate: each team has only one current-season game of form.
    Long Way Home
    • Arizona's to-date defense is -0.33 EPA/play allowed versus Seattle's -0.07; Arizona also has home field.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle's 0.12 explosive-play rate overwhelms Arizona despite the quarterback downgrade.
  2. Arizona Cardinals spread +42 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • current-season PIT has Arizona defense at -0.33 EPA/play versus Seattle at -0.07; lower is better.
    • Arizona offense is +0.01 EPA/play versus Seattle at -0.07, supporting the home underdog with four points.
    • Early-season sample: the PIT features are from Week 2, below the brief's three-game Full-tier threshold; this is Partial/Tier 2.
    Long Way Home
    • Arizona gets home field and +4 protects the close-game outcome this matchup profile points toward.
    • Seattle can still win by 5+ if its quarterback replacement avoids mistakes; that is the most direct loss path.
  3. Trey McBride over 6.5 receptionsHigh conviction
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-run joint simulation: 58% for 7+ receptions versus +104 implied 49.0%.
    • 2025 profile: 169 targets, 126 receptions, 92.8% route rate across 17 games.
    • Week 1: 34 routes on 38 pass plays, 13 targets and 9 receptions.
    • Seattle can compress the middle and force Arizona toward outside receivers.
  4. Third quarter ends levelLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle 3Q winner 0.45 plus Arizona 3Q winner 0.33 implies a 0.22 draw probability.
    • Direct third-quarter draw contract is 0.20: a 0.02 structural discount to the complementary winner legs.
    • The 0.02 discrepancy is small and can reflect displayed rounding, spreads, or fees.
  5. Seattle Seahawks first second-half scoreLong shot
    +809%Won

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • All 3 second-half points contracts passed quote integrity: both sides quoted and no price at or beyond the 0.98/0.02 placeholder band.
    • Opening-drive proxy favors Seattle: 16/28 away drives scored (57.1%) versus Arizona 18/37 home drives (48.6%), 65 games total.
    • Across four first-score families, 12 contracts were screened and 5 excluded for null or placeholder quotes; this selected set had 0 exclusions.
    • Opening-kickoff and second-half receiving order are not yet known; possession uncertainty is the largest model input.
  6. Seattle Seahawks first-half spread −1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted first-half cover probability is about 78¢ using the live margin, pace inputs (SEA 30.16, ARI 32.01 sec/play), and to-date EPA/PPD inputs.
    • The square-root-of-drives rule widens the half-margin distribution less than linear halving; that supports the live lead carrying meaningful first-half tail protection.
    • Full-game Seattle -1.5 is 74¢ on the same board, a consistency anchor: the first-half contract is not charging enough for the already-realized 7-point margin.
    • Early-game state is volatile: an Arizona touchdown, Seattle turnover, or red-zone failure can erase the current margin before halftime.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Game second-half total over 20.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 41.5 while 1H 19.5 plus 2H 20.5 sums to only 40.0; the missing 1.5 points points to the 2H rung.
    • A late-scoring bump makes 2H expectation above a mechanical half of the game; the board's 20.5 is the mispriced number, anchored by 41.5 and 19.5.
    • Pace inputs are 32.01 and 30.16 seconds per play; to-date points per drive are 2.36 ARI and 1.30 SEA, supporting enough half possessions for 21+ points.
    • Second-half outcomes are conditioned on the halftime state, so this projection is wider and less reliable than a 1H projection.
  2. Seattle Seahawks −10.5Long shot
    +488%Won

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Long OddsNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Ladder-implied Seattle win probability is about 60.0%, versus 76.1% from the venue's devigged moneyline (16.1-point internal gap).
    • The Arizona +10.5 rung costs 82¢, versus 66.5¢ at +9.5 and 86.5¢ at +13.5, a conspicuous 15.5-point one-step safety jump.
    • Nearest sharp confirmation is Pinnacle Seattle -6.5 at -109, broadly rejecting the venue moneyline's 76.1% favorite probability.
    • This is a high-variance -10.5 margin contract; Seattle must win by 11 or more, and the game is already live in the second quarter.
  3. Jacoby Brissett over 216.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's pass-block grade is 61.1 with 98.5 PBE, 6 pressures and 0 sacks allowed versus Seattle's 54.8 pass-rush grade and 5.5% win rate.
    • Arizona's +6.6% pregame PROE and Week 1 37-attempt workload support a projection around 35-40 attempts despite a modest 41.5-point total.
    • Sharp reference is Pinnacle over 216.5 at -111 / under -109, roughly 50.2% devigged for the over; model fair probability is 58.0%.
    • Arizona's current line is not fully verified: Isaac Seumalo and Isaiah Adams are officially questionable, while Josh Fryar is out; replacement quality could cut Brissett's time to throw.
  4. Arizona Cardinals 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +122 on FanDuel

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NFC West divisional matchup; exact division gate passes.
    • Arizona scored 7, 3, 0, 10, 0 first-quarter points in its last five: 4.0 PPG.
    • The 4.0 PPG recent-script gate is met exactly.
    • The scoring gate is met exactly, with no margin above 4.0 PPG.
  5. Seattle Seahawks under 21.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; Seattle posted -0.07 offensive EPA/play and 1.30 points per drive through Week 1.
    • Arizona's defense posted -0.33 EPA/play allowed, the clearest opponent-specific matchup signal on this board.
    • Drew Lock is officially starting with Sam Darnold out; Seattle's offense also went 0-for-2 in Week 1 red-zone trips.
    • The spread-split benchmark implies roughly 22.75 Seattle points, so this team total may already reflect a deliberate quarterback adjustment.
  6. Arizona Cardinals spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NFL babyDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's recent net EPA/play is +0.34 versus Seattle's approximately +0.00, a large efficiency gap.
    • Arizona leads recent points per drive 2.60 to 1.28 over the five-game window.
    • Seattle has 72% of spread tickets and 68% of spread handle, yet the market remains Seattle -3.5.
    • The EPA comparison is built on a very small 2026 sample and is not fully strength-of-schedule adjusted.
  7. Seattle Seahawks −3.5
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    NFL Spread DetectiveDown 68% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA strategy score: Seattle 1.13 vs Arizona -0.49; EPA edge +1.63.
    • Primary EPA: Seattle 0.64 vs Arizona -0.28; primary edge +0.92, clearing both triggers.
    • Seattle components: pass +0.93, rush -1.07, defensive pass +1.49, defensive rush +2.50.
    • Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is out; the official Seahawks site confirms Drew Lock is preparing to start.
  8. Jadarian Price 1+ touchdowns
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 48% snap share and committee-lead label barely separate Price from George Holani at 46%; this is not a true workhorse goal-line role.
    • Week 1 usage was only 10 carries plus 2 targets; Holani had 8 carries plus 1 target, preserving meaningful touchdown competition.
    • Seattle had 2 red-zone trips and 0 conversions in Week 1; Arizona allowed 2 conversions on 3 opposing red-zone trips, a one-game sample.
    • Seattle is favored, and a positive script could concentrate late goal-line carries on the declared RB1.
  9. Arizona Cardinals spread +7.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes superior Arizona +7.5 at -196 (66.22¢) versus inferior Arizona +7 at -220.
    • Offers can move or disappear before execution; the venue read was 11:02:54 AM PT.
  10. Arizona Cardinals spread +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona has 3 book levels versus Seattle's 2; backing Arizona Cardinals +5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX self-reference is not independent confirmation; one participant or a data-entry issue could explain the ladder.
  11. Game total under 26.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • estimated mean ~40.5 and SD ~13 from 2026 pace, PROE and points-per-drive inputs; model P(total ≤26.5) ~14%.
    • Far-tail rung is 15 points below Pinnacle's sharp 41.5 central total; this is Tier 2, not a central-total play.
    • Seattle's Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock is confirmed to start; the QB change may already be fully reflected in the 41.5 market.
  12. Game total under 41.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 41.5 is 0.5 above ProphetX team-total sum 41 (22.5 + 18.5).
    • full-game 41.5 is 1.5 above 2x ProphetX first-half total 20.
    • Arizona pace_to_date is 32.01 seconds/play versus Seattle's 30.16; both current team samples are only one game.
    • Coverage is thin: each team has only one 2026 feature game, so this is LEAN rather than recommended.
  13. Arizona Cardinals first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona generated 5 red-zone possessions and 2 touchdowns in Week 1; Seattle generated 2 and 0.
    • Arizona’s pregame points-per-drive proxy is 2.36 versus Seattle’s 1.30, supporting the underpriced team-touchdown side.
    • Seattle allowed 1 TD on 2 opposing red-zone trips; Arizona allowed 2 on 3, a small but directionally favorable conversion proxy.
    • Only one game of red-zone data: five versus two possessions is a very thin sample.
  14. Game total under 43
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 2-2, so only the two core measures agree; backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels do not corroborate the direction, and no independent sharp-reference check is being used.
  15. Game total under 40.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 39.5; under 40.5 estimated 54%, about 2.8 points above DraftKings break-even.
    • Arizona allowed -0.33 EPA/play in Week 1; Seattle's offense posted -0.07 EPA/play.
    • Current points-per-drive baselines are Seattle 1.30 and Arizona 2.36, supporting a sub-41 projection.
    • Both 2026 advanced samples are one game, with limited opponent adjustment.

Questions

Who won Seahawks vs. Cardinals?

The Seahawks won 31-7 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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