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FinalRaymond James Stadium
Browns0-1
23–19Final
Buccaneers0-1
Score by period
Team1234T
CLE3310723
TB637319

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Browns to win 17¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: QB gate passed: Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield are live QB1 depth-chart and usage leaders; neither has a game-day Out designation.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-22 on this game · −17% return

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers −8.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model, high-confidence main markets +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • 2025 EPA net blend: Tampa Bay +0.01/play vs Cleveland -0.14, a +0.14/play matchup gap.
    • 2025 points per drive: Tampa Bay 2.04 vs Cleveland 1.29; the 2026 recent window still favors Tampa Bay.
    • Official game-day inactives were not posted at 7:05 AM; Watson and Mayfield are expected starters, but final active status remains pending.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent cover estimate: 59.5%; fair line approximately Tampa Bay -9.5.
    • Tampa Week 1 offense: +0.14 EPA/play and 55.6% success; Cleveland: -0.31 and 46.0%.
    • Both defenses allowed positive EPA/play in Week 1; one explosive swing can erase the margin.
    NFL baby
    • 10-drive PPD translation: Tampa 2.22 vs Cleveland 1.11 implies roughly an 11.1-point margin, 2.6 above -8.5.
    • Week-1 EPA profile favors Tampa: +0.14 offensive EPA/play versus Cleveland -0.31.
    • The efficiency proxy is based on one 2026 game and lacks an opponent-adjusted EPA surface; projection uncertainty is substantial.
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers to winFavorite3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsSkip Bayless Tracker, Brewing NFL Ml +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • Gridiron with Aqib Talib interview, reported Sep. 16: “they’re going to get wiped out by the Bucs.”
    • The call maps to the scheduled Browns @ Buccaneers game on Sep. 20.
    • The quote is a broad winner call, not a quantified spread or independent projection.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • TB leads current opponent-adjusted offense EPA/play 0.14 to Cleveland's -0.31; success rate 55.6% to 46.0%.
    • Tampa Bay leads points per drive 2.22 to 1.11; Baker Mayfield is active with a 55.1 PFF pass grade and +15.4 CPOE.
    • The efficiency sample is only one 2026 game, leaving substantial turnover and opponent-quality variance.
    Long Way Home
    • ProphetX's matched contract is Tampa Bay at 79.38¢ with $453 offered, alongside Pinnacle's -445 reference.
    • Tampa Bay leads to-date offensive EPA/play 0.14 to Cleveland's -0.31.
    • The game is already live, and a Browns defensive or special-teams play can overturn a modest 6-3 margin.
  3. Game total under 41.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsLong Way Home, Number Earned +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Long Way Home
    • Cleveland produced -0.31 offensive EPA/play, 46% success, and 1.11 points per drive in Week 1.
    • The low Cleveland offensive baseline leaves Tampa needing sustained efficiency to clear 42; that is not fully priced at this exchange quote.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa converts Cleveland mistakes into a 31-plus-point home score.
    Number Earned
    • Model estimate: 56% under, fair line about -127; DraftKings -112 offers positive expected value.
    • Recent five-game scoring averages are 13.2 for Cleveland and 21.6 for Tampa Bay, totaling 34.8 points.
    • Cleveland's recent defense is poor at +0.16 EPA/play allowed, creating a path to Tampa Bay explosive scoring.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Cleveland posted -0.31 offensive EPA/play and a 46.0% success rate in Week 1, pointing to constrained scoring.
    • Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 0.29 EPA/play; the under thesis is Cleveland’s offense, not a claim that both units are weak.
    • Likeliest loss path: Tampa Bay creates 28, 35 points through its efficient offense, leaving only 7, 14 Cleveland points needed to clear 41.5.
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • TB posted 2.22 points per drive versus Cleveland's 1.11 in the one prior 2026 game.
    • Full-sample margin SD is 8.94; square-root drive scaling gives a half SD near 6.32, not a linear 4.47.
    • 2026 points-per-drive and EPA inputs each contain only one prior game per team.
    Split Decision
    • Rest is even at 7-7; TB's offensive EPA is 0.14 versus Cleveland's -0.31, a +0.45 gap.
    • TB's defensive EPA-to-date edge is 0.02 and its points-per-drive edge is 1.11, supporting the scripted-side read.
    • Rest is neutral, so there is no short-week or bye-week catalyst to amplify the first-half edge.
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread −7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Tampa Bay posted +0.14 offensive EPA/play versus Cleveland's -0.31 after Week 1.
    • Pinnacle showed Tampa Bay -9 while ProphetX offered -7.5, a two-point price gap; reference only.
    • NFL Week 2 means only one current-season game: this is Partial-tier, not a full sample.
    Long Way Home
    • The ProphetX line gives 1.5 points of cushion versus the sharp reference without a materially worse price.
    • Through 9/13, Tampa Bay led Cleveland in offensive EPA/play, 0.14 to -0.31, and success rate, 55.6% to 46.0%.
    • The ticket loses if Tampa Bay wins by seven or fewer; a one-score game is the likeliest failure path.
  6. Cleveland Browns to winLong shot
    +488%Won

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate passed: Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield are live QB1 depth-chart and usage leaders; neither has a game-day Out designation.
    • Tampa Bay's current offense EPA/play is +0.14 versus Cleveland's -0.31, with a .556 versus .460 success-rate edge.
Show all 27 picks
  1. Over total 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived p_anchor at TB -10.5 is 45.2%; p_model is 47.7%; EV_anchor +5.1%, EV_model +10.9%.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins by 10 or fewer, especially the key-number 7-to-10 cluster.
  3. Over 41.5 total points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  4. Under 42 total
    0%Push

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.5% model Under 42; projected total 40.5 from current-season efficiency inputs.
    • Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson are confirmed starters, but three questionable defensive/receiver statuses remain.
  5. Bucky Irving over 2.5 receptions
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 61.4% Week 1 snap share and a workhorse role label clear the primary-back usage gate.
    • He ran 22 routes on 35 snaps and converted all seven Week 1 targets.
    • Cleveland’s defense has allowed +0.31 EPA per play through Week 1; Tampa Bay projects near 25 points.
    • Kenneth Gainwell still played 45.6% of Week 1 snaps and handled 14 routes.
  6. Baker Mayfield over 18.5 completions
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Latest completions: 23, 16, 33; 24.0 average makes 18.5 just 77% of trailing output.
    • Cleveland has allowed +0.31 defensive EPA per play through Week 1.
    • One of the latest three games produced only 16 completions; the sample spans a season gap.
  7. Cleveland Browns moneyline +350Long shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier 2: real exchange depth, flat 1u; both starting QBs are confirmed active at the latest live checks.
    • Tampa Bay is at home with Baker Mayfield confirmed; Cleveland's upset path requires Watson and the defense to outperform thin-sample form.
  8. Under 35.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TB and CLE pace is 32.79 and 33.12 seconds per play; two slow teams support the -1.0-point total ledger.
    • Only one current-season regular-season game per team; Partial coverage leaves substantial early-season volatility.
  9. Both teams score a touchdown in the first halfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Answered BackNew model
    Why it likes it
    • first-quarter YES is 0.12 while first-half YES is 0.11; Q1 touchdown by both teams necessarily implies first-half touchdown by both teams.
    • The 1H contract therefore costs less than the strictly narrower Q1 contract on the same venue.
    • Historical direct joint sample: 2022, 25 regular season, 1H not modeled as a product of marginals; Q2 joint touchdown rate was 29.6% in 378 close-spread, mid-pace games, while Q1 was 19.0%.
    • The game is live at 3, 6 with 2:28 remaining in Q1; both teams still need touchdowns before halftime, so the event can fail outright.
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers team total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TB offense: +0.14 EPA/play; Cleveland defense allowed +0.31 EPA/play after Week 1.
    • Cross-matchup fit favors Tampa Bay by roughly 0.23 EPA/play before pace translation; TB ran 54 plays.
    • My matchup fit centers near 26, 27 points, leaving a modest cushion over 24.5.
    • Only one regular-season game makes EPA, pace, and scoring baselines thin.
  11. Total points under 44
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CLE's current EPA-to-date is -0.31/play with 1.11 points per drive; latest PFF defense grades favor TB 65.7 to CLE 44.2.
    • Gate cleared: Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield are latest QB1s on 6:01am depth charts; $1,580 exceeds the $300 minimum.
    • TB's Week 1 offense produced 0.14 EPA/play and 2.22 points per drive; CLE's defense allowed 0.31 EPA/play.
  12. Bucky Irving touchdowns over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bucky is the declared RB1 and workhorse; current usage leaders show a 61.4% snap share versus Kenneth Gainwell's 45.6%.
    • Tampa Bay produced 4 red-zone attempts and 2 conversions last week; Bucky's workhorse role is the goal-line proxy, not a literal goal-line field.
    • Cleveland allowed Jacksonville 2 red-zone touchdowns on 2 trips last week; the small-sample matchup supports Tampa Bay touchdown chances.
    • The live game has Tampa Bay at 6 points with 0 red-zone attempts so far; field goals can replace touchdown opportunities.
  13. Game total under 44.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  14. Cleveland Browns spread +7
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland +7 pushes on a Tampa Bay win by exactly 7; Cleveland +7.5 wins that outcome.
  15. Game total over 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are tied, 3 Over versus 3 Under; the two qualifying measures are thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total.
    • Directional check: backing Over 44.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Exact quote is +148 American, 40.32¢ ProphetX price.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; orders may be stale, canceled, or concentrated with one participant.
  16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1H spread over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: Tampa Bay 7 days, Cleveland 7 days; no rest mismatch is credited.
    • EPA to date: Tampa Bay offense +0.14 versus Cleveland -0.31; defensive features are +0.29 versus +0.31.
    • Points per drive are 2.22 for Tampa Bay versus 1.11 for Cleveland; pace is nearly even at 32.79 versus 33.12 seconds per play.
    • No rest edge removes the brief's strongest first-half signal.
  17. Game first-half total under 20.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model centers the first half around 19 points: current PPD is TB 2.22, CLE 1.11; 2025 baselines were 2.04 and 1.29.
    • Current paces are 32.79 and 33.12 seconds per play, slower than both teams’ 2025 rates and supportive of fewer first-half drives.
    • Square-root scaling: half-game variance shrinks with sqrt(drives), not linearly; the model remains below 20.5 despite wider half tails.
    • Only one 2026 game per team makes current PPD extremely thin and volatile.
  18. Cleveland Browns over 8.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Always winsDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 81% of spread tickets backed Tampa Bay, yet the spread moved from Buccaneers -9 to -8: clear anti-public resistance.
    • Tampa Bay failed to cover in each of its five most recent ATS results in the NFL warehouse.
    • The current DraftKings board still offers Cleveland +8.5, preserving the key number after the public-driven Tampa move.
    • Tampa owns the stronger 2026 team grade, 63.3 to Cleveland's 53.6.
  19. Game first-half total over 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 first-half scoring averages total 21.6 points: Tampa Bay 11.0, Cleveland 10.6.
    • 2026 Week 1 pace was 32.79 seconds/play for Tampa Bay and 33.12 for Cleveland.
    • Positive Week 1 PROE was 12.3% Tampa Bay and 8.2% Cleveland; model projection is 22.5 first-half points.
    • Week 1 offensive samples are thin; Cleveland scored zero first-half points last week.
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers spread −8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample: Tampa Bay offense +0.14 EPA/play versus Cleveland -0.31, a +0.45 gap; both teams have one game.
    • 2025 prior: Tampa Bay +0.00 offensive EPA/play versus Cleveland -0.22 over 17 games, a +0.22 gap.
    • PFF card favors Tampa Bay: 65.7 defense grade versus Cleveland 44.2; rest is 7 days each and the game is not neutral.
    • Coverage gate is partial: both teams have only one 2026 feature row, so this is capped at LEAN and uses a prior-season blend.
  21. Bucky Irving first Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bucky is Tampa Bay's current RB1/workhorse: 61.4% snap share, 56.4% route participation, 28.6% run-snap rate.
    • Tampa Bay produced 4 red-zone trips and 2 scores in Week 1; Bucky scored once on 8 carries.
    • Script favors Tampa Bay's backfield: TB moneyline is -425, with +0.14 offensive EPA versus Cleveland's -0.31.
    • First-touchdown outcomes are inherently high variance; any non-Bucky Tampa touchdown wins the market first.

Questions

Who won Browns vs. Buccaneers?

The Browns won 23-19 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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