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FinalLevi's Stadium
Dolphins0-1
13–35Final
49ers1-0
Score by period
Team1234T
MIA060713
SF6821035

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Francisco 49ers spread −14 47¢

Why House Rules likes it: -14 wins at 15+ and pushes at exactly 14; adjacent -14.5 loses at 14.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-10 on this game · +18% return

  1. San Francisco 49ers first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    +14%Won

    Taken at 88¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • Live warehouse score is SF 7-0 after Q1; Fox confirms Brock Purdy started versus Malik Willis.
    • 2026 to date: SF +0.14 EPA/play and 3.00 PPD; Miami is -0.30 EPA/play and 1.18 PPD.
    • A single Q2 turnover, short field, or special-teams score can erase SF's 7-0 advantage.
    Split Decision
    • San Francisco has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7, a material three-day freshness edge in the scripted window.
    • EPA gap: SF offense +0.14 and defense -0.29 versus Miami offense -0.30 and defense +0.03; success rate is .5821 to .3208.
    • The 1H sharp number is derived from a full-game reference rather than directly posted by a sportsbook.
  2. San Francisco 49ers −12.52 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent cover estimate 59%; fair line San Francisco -14.5 versus DraftKings -12.5.
    • San Francisco leads 2026 pregame offense EPA/play 0.14 to Miami -0.30.
    • Each team has only one 2026 regular-season game, so the form sample is thin.
    Number Earned
    • Model estimate: 58% cover probability; fair spread approximately San Francisco -14.
    • San Francisco led current form at +0.14 offensive EPA/play and -0.29 defensive EPA/play.
    • Both teams have only one regular-season game in the current sample; early-season EPA is noisy.
  3. San Francisco 49ers exact margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor has San Francisco -13.5 (+105).
    • The result is a narrow San Francisco win despite a 13.5-point sharp spread; a larger home margin loses.
  4. San Francisco 49ers spread −14High conviction
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • -14 wins at 15+ and pushes at exactly 14; adjacent -14.5 loses at 14.
    • ProphetX quotes -14 at +115 (46.51¢) versus -14.5 at +104 (49.02¢): the dominated half-point rung is cheaper.
    • ProphetX pricing and the line_id can change before kickoff.
  5. Over total 52.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate passed: latest depth lists Malik Willis and Brock Purdy; game-day report lists Brady Cook Out and no Purdy designation.
    • Partial coverage: both teams have only 1 current-season game, so form and the 2.6-point gap are sample-sensitive.
  6. Miami Dolphins spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • One-game efficiency: SF 0.14 offensive EPA, 58.2% success, 3.00 PPD; Miami -0.30, 32.1%, 1.18.
    • Both starting QBs are current depth-chart QB1s; no game-day Out for listed RB1/WR1.
    • Miami +6.5 loses on a 7+ point SF win; key-number mass makes that the central failure mode.
Show all 23 picks
  1. Game total under 22.5 first half
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7; the gap should matter before in-game fatigue and adjustments equalize.
    • Baseline scoring is sharply asymmetric: SF points per drive 3.00 versus Miami 1.18, while SF defense posts -0.29 EPA/play against Miami's -0.30 offensive EPA/play.
    • the same SF defensive/Miami offensive gap supporting the winner lean suppresses Miami's scripted scoring; pace-weighted first-half projection is 21.3 points.
    • The combined pace inputs are not slow: SF 34.24 and Miami 29.21, leaving possession-count upside.
  2. Miami Dolphins first-half spread +16.5Favorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fitted first-half SF margin is about 7.0; Miami +16.5 projects near 83% versus 79c.
    • SF first-week offense EPA/play was +0.14 and defense allowed -0.29; Miami was -0.30 and +0.03.
    • Pace was 34.24 versus 29.21 seconds/play; SF's 3.00 points/drive versus Miami's 1.18 supports control, not a runaway assumption.
    • Miami can still trail by 17 or more before halftime; explosive plays and red-zone variance dominate a one-half tail.
  3. Game second-half total over 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 45.5; the first-half board is 21.5, leaving roughly 24 points for the second half.
    • The second-half 21.5 contract costs 50c, a 2.5-point shortfall versus the full-game anchor after the first-half number.
    • Second-half scoring bump supports more than a mechanical split; half variance scales with sqrt(drives), not linearly with possessions.
    • Second-half outcomes are conditioned on the halftime score; a large San Francisco lead can produce clock-killing possessions.
  4. Malik Washington receiving yards over 34.5
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 98.2% Week 1 snap share and 40 routes establish a primary receiving role.
    • Snap share climbed 52.5% → 64.3% → 69.6% in his prior three games, then surged.
    • San Francisco is favored by 13.5, creating a pass-heavy comeback script for Miami.
    • San Francisco’s recent defense allowed -0.22 EPA per play, a difficult matchup for Miami’s passing game.
  5. San Francisco 49ers −13.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair spread ~49ers -17.0: 80/20 2025-to-2026 opponent-adjusted EPA blend plus 2.5-point home field.
    • Week 1 inputs were sharply asymmetric: SF +0.14 offensive EPA/play and -0.29 defensive EPA/play allowed; Miami -0.30 and +0.03.
    • Trench interaction favors San Francisco: 74.5 pass-block grade vs Miami's 46.8, with SF's 64.8 pass-rush grade attacking that weakness.
    • The 2026 sample is only one game per team; the 80/20 prior blend reduces but does not remove early-season model error.
  6. San Francisco 49ers spread −12
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF's 2026 opener: +0.14 off EPA/play versus Miami's +0.03 defensive EPA allowed; Miami offense was -0.30 versus SF defense -0.29.
    • Partial-coverage fallback, only one 2026 feature row each, so the read is weighted with 2025 priors: SF +0.02 offense/-0.05 defense versus Miami -0.03/+0.15.
    • PFF 2026 card supports the mismatch: SF offense 67.9 and pass block 74.5 versus Miami offense 56.6 and pass block 46.8.
    • Lean-sized because both teams have only one current-season feature row; prior-season blending can misstate true 2026 strength.
  7. Miami Dolphins team total under 14.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco allowed -0.29 defensive EPA/play; Miami made only 1 of 3 Week-1 red-zone trips.
    • The 14.5 board number is below the roughly 16-point spread-split implication, suggesting independent team-total modeling; light 5, 7 mph wind is benign.
    • Malik Willis is confirmed active with game-specific pass props, but the accessible inactives page did not explicitly label his snap share.
  8. Christian McCaffrey 1+ touchdownsFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McCaffrey is the confirmed RB1 and committee lead: 55.4% snap share, 59.5% route participation.
    • San Francisco had 3 red-zone attempts and converted 2 in Week 1; McCaffrey's lead role concentrates goal-line equity.
    • SF's +0.14 offensive EPA to date versus Miami's -0.30 supports a favorable script; if ahead, a run-heavy goal-line assumption benefits the lead back.
    • Kaelon Black is also heavily used (43.1% snaps, early-down-hammer role) and is game-day questionable, so the backfield split is not fully clean.
  9. Christian McCaffrey first San Francisco 49ers touchdownLong shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McCaffrey is the declared SF RB1 and committee lead, with a 55.4% snap share and 10 carries in Week 1.
    • SF generated 3 red-zone attempts and converted 2; Miami allowed Las Vegas 4 red-zone attempts and 3 conversions last week.
    • SF's pregame profile is materially stronger: 0.14 offensive EPA/play and 3.00 points/drive versus Miami's -0.30 and 1.18.
    • San Francisco's backfield is genuinely split: Kaelon Black logged a 43.1% snap share and 14 Week 1 carries.
  10. Game total under 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 44 wins at 0, 43, pushes at exactly 44, and loses at 45+.
    • ProphetX quotes under 44 at +110 (47.62¢) versus adjacent under 43.5 at +122 (45.05¢).
  11. Miami Dolphins spread +12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 for Miami and 3 for San Francisco; two of three measures agree, with raw thin-side stake above a few hundred dollars.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent statistical or sharp-book confirmation; the displayed queue can be stale or cancel.
  12. Brock Purdy over 28.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.6 attempts average across Purdy's last five starts, 10.9% above 28.5.
    • Purdy went over this line in 4 of those five starts, including 34 attempts in Week 1.
    • San Francisco's pregame offensive EPA is +0.14/play; Miami's defensive EPA is +0.03/play.
    • The five-start sample spans two seasons and includes only one 2026 game.
  13. Game total over 58.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace/PROE inputs are 34.24 sec/play and +11.0% for SF, 29.21 sec/play and +13.0% for MIA; points per drive are 3.00 and 1.18.
    • This is 14 points above the 44.5 sharp center; tail extrapolation is materially less trusted than central totals.
  14. San Francisco 49ers 1H spread over 6.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7, a three-day first-half freshness and scripting edge.
    • EPA gap: SF offense +0.14 versus Miami -0.30; SF defense -0.29 versus Miami +0.03.
    • Success rate is .5821 to .3208; points per drive are 3.00 to 1.18, with SF pace 34.24 versus Miami 29.21.
    • No independent sharp first-half spread is posted; the -7.6 reference is derived from the full-game line, not a same-rung quote.
  15. Game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 45.5 is above the 15.5 + 29.5 team-total sum of 45.0.
    • 2x ProphetX first-half total of 23.0 is 46.0; under 46.5 keeps a half-point cushion.
    • Game-day ESPN lookup identifies Malik Willis and Brock Purdy as the active QB path; statuses were cross-checked against official pregame reports.
    • each team has only 1 current-season nfl_game_features row, below the 3-game coverage threshold.
  16. Total points under 46
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami's 2026 offense is -0.30 EPA/play against San Francisco's -0.29 defensive EPA allowed.
    • San Francisco's +0.14 offensive EPA/play is paired with Miami's +0.03 defensive EPA allowed; scoring is concentrated.
    • 2025 priors across 17 games reinforce the split: Miami offense -0.03, San Francisco offense +0.07 EPA/play.
    • Week 2 supplies only one current-season game per team; the 2025 blend makes this a LEAN, not a full-strength projection.
  17. San Francisco 49ers spread −13.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco led the current-season sample at +0.14 offensive EPA/play, 0.58 success rate, and 3.00 points/drive.
    • Miami's offense sits at -0.30 EPA/play, 0.32 success rate, and 1.18 points/drive through the same cutoff.
    • The matchup data supports San Francisco separating rather than merely winning; this is a narrow projection edge, not payout-based reasoning.
    • Most likely loss: Miami generates explosive plays and backdoor-covers 13.5 despite losing.

Questions

Who won Dolphins vs. 49ers?

The 49ers won 35-13 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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