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FinalSoldier Field
Vikings1-0
9–3Final
Bears1-0
Score by period
Team1234T
MIN33039
CHI30003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game first-half total under 25.5 55¢

Why Locker Room likes it: Fitted first-half total is approximately 22.8 points after regressing one-game PPD outliers toward 2024-25 team rates.

Locker RoomUp 1% return this season · 219 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-10 on this game · +0% return

  1. Minnesota Vikings to win3 models agree
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Fade Stephen A. Smith +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Backing Minnesota Vikings, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quotes +188 (34.72¢ contract).
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • A Sep. 17 video attributes the strong game take to Stephen A. Smith: “Bears will destroy Vikings.”
    • “Destroy” is a loud, specific commitment on this scheduled Week 2 matchup.
    • The evidence is a third-party First Take re-upload/title; an official transcript was not readable.
    Long Way Home
    • Minnesota’s defensive EPA is -0.15 versus Chicago’s +0.06; that matchup points to a tighter game than the home favorite framing.
    • Chicago’s +0.38 offensive EPA is strong, but Minnesota’s defense is the clearest counterweight in this matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago’s +0.38 offensive EPA wins early and forces Minnesota into a comeback script.
  2. Chicago Bears spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Chicago -4.5 at -105/-105; devigged p_anchor is 50.0%.
    • Bears lead Minnesota by 0.35 EPA/play offensively, 10.84 success points, 8.83 explosive points, and 1.29 points/drive.
    • Minnesota's defense is stronger by 0.22 EPA/play allowed, offsetting Chicago's offensive advantage.
  3. Game first-half total under 25.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted first-half total is approximately 22.8 points after regressing one-game PPD outliers toward 2024-25 team rates.
    • Full-game totals across 2,776 completed games since 2016 averaged 45.71 with 13.95 SD; first-half uncertainty is scaled by sqrt(drives), about 9.86 SD, not a linear halving.
    • Current pace inputs are 32.42 seconds/play for Chicago and 33.13 for Minnesota; the 47-point full-game board is a consistency anchor, not the half projection.
    • Current PPD is a one-game sample: Chicago is 4.21 versus 2024-25 rates of 1.65/2.34, while Minnesota is 2.92 versus 1.82/2.17.
  4. Justin Jefferson over 77.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jefferson drew 9 targets for 92 yards in Week 1 on a 92.3% snap share and 34 routes.
    • He is Minnesota's clear WR1; his 2025 season included 141 targets and 1,048 receiving yards.
    • The current-season projection is only one game deep, while Jefferson's 2025 final five outputs were uneven.
  5. Caleb Williams over 225.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 269 passing yards on 29 attempts in Week 1; 225.5 is 83.8% of that output.
    • Williams played 100% of Chicago's offensive snaps and is an unquestioned primary quarterback.
    • Minnesota's latest PFF coverage grade is 35.9, a clear matchup weakness.
    • One regular-season game drives the current-season projection and role sample.
  6. Minnesota Vikings spread +14.5Favorite
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

    Long OddsNew model
    Why it likes it
    • ladder-implied Vikings win probability 29.8% versus moneyline-implied 37.3%, a 7.5-point Tier 1 gap.
    • DraftKings prices Vikings +14.5 at -550, about 84.6% implied, confirming this rung is unusually cheap externally too.
    • The game is live at 3-3 in the first quarter; future scoring or an injury can move full-game spread probabilities quickly.
Show all 17 picks
  1. T.J. Hockenson over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Week 1: 66.2% snaps, 27 routes, 98.4% route participation; prior three: 75.4%/25/89.9%, 80.0%/24/96.3%, 56.3%/21/73.8%.
    • Fresh depth chart lists Hockenson TE1; the live odds roster feed lists him Active.
    • 2025 Weeks 14-16 produced 2, 4, and 1 receptions despite the route role.
  2. Minnesota Vikings 1Q to win
    0%Push

    Taken at +130 on DraftKings

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vikings averaged 4.6 first-quarter points over their last five games (23 total), clearing the 4.0 scoring gate.
    • Bears allowed +0.36 first-quarter EPA per play over their last five games, well above the -0.05 threshold.
    • Both teams are confirmed NFC North members, satisfying the exact divisional-matchup gate.
    • The five-game scoring sample spans one 2026 game and four late-2025 games; play-calling and personnel may have changed.
  3. Chicago Bears under 26.5 team points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup fit: Chicago’s +0.38 offensive EPA/play meets Minnesota’s strong -0.15 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Chicago’s 4.21 points/drive and 59-point opener are real upside, but a one-game explosive outlier is aggressively priced.
    • Rain is forecast at 100%, with northeast winds 15, 25 mph and gusts to 30; Chicago’s pass rate was only 43.5%.
    • Chicago converted 4 of 4 red-zone trips last week; repeating that efficiency defeats the under quickly.
  4. Chicago Bears first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago’s pregame offense leads Minnesota in EPA/play, 0.38 to 0.03.
    • Chicago’s points per drive is 4.21 versus Minnesota’s 2.92.
    • Both teams converted 4 of 4 red-zone trips in Week 1; Chicago’s home offense has the stronger scoring baseline.
    • First touchdown is highly sequence-sensitive and depends on opening possession and scripted drives.
  5. D'Andre Swift 1+ touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 57.3% snap share and an early_down_hammer role; Swift is Chicago's declared RB1 ahead of Kyle Monangai (42.7%, committee).
    • Chicago produced 4 red-zone attempts and 4 red-zone scores last week; the opposing defense also allowed 4-of-4 conversion.
    • Chicago's pregame offense leads Minnesota in EPA/play (0.38 vs 0.03) and points per drive (4.21 vs 2.92).
    • Swift's 57.3% share is a one-game sample, and Monangai still has a substantial 42.7% committee share.
  6. Minnesota Vikings spread +3
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing Minnesota Vikings +3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quotes +138 (42.02¢ contract).
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
  7. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing over 47.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count ties 3-3, so only two of the three order-flow measures support the read.
  8. Game total over 61.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 61.5 is quoted at 0.04 while adjacent Over 62.5 is 0.05 and Over 63.5 is 0.06.
    • Pregame pace was 32.42 seconds/play for Chicago and 33.13 for Minnesota; both PROE inputs were near neutral, so no model-driven high-total narrative is required for this structural play.
    • Tail guard: 61.5 is far beyond the 44-point sharp center, where the distribution model is least trustworthy.
  9. Total points under 47.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Week 1 pace was slow: Chicago 32.42 and Minnesota 33.13 seconds per play; both offenses were slightly negative PROE (-0.00/-0.02).
    • only 1 2026 game each, so the read is capped LEAN and uses 2025 reg+post priors: Chicago 19 games, Minnesota 17.
    • sportsbook total is 46.5 (Pinnacle), while ProphetX offers the higher 47.5 under rung.
    • Chicago scored 59 points and posted +0.38 offensive EPA/play in Week 1, creating a clear over path.
  10. Chicago Bears to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago’s current net EPA/play edge is +0.13: offense +0.38 vs +0.03, partially offset by defense +0.06 vs -0.15.
    • Personnel confirmed, Vikings announced Carson Wentz as the starter; the Bears’ official preview identifies Caleb Williams as quarterback.
    • Week 2 has only one completed current-season game, so this is Partial/Tier 2 rather than a full-form leg.
  11. Chicago Bears −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT feature: Chicago's 2026 offense is +0.38 EPA/play versus Minnesota's +0.03 through Week 1.
    • Chicago leads current success rate .5278-.4194 and points per drive 4.21-2.92.
    • Carson Wentz is the verified active Vikings quarterback; Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy are out.
    • The current-season sample is extremely small; one explosive Week 1 for Chicago can distort every rate.

Questions

Who won Vikings vs. Bears?

The Vikings won 9-3 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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