Dolphins vs. VikingsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalU.S. Bank Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| MIN | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOllie Gordon II anytime touchdown +350
Why TD Value Model · DraftKings likes it: Scenario model: roughly 31% anytime-touchdown probability versus 22.2% DraftKings break-even.
TD Value Model · DraftKingsUp 6% return this season · 68 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 16-14 on this game · +8% return
- Minnesota Vikings spread −10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSunday Ledger, Key Number PairsWhy 2 models like it
Sunday Ledger- Minnesota leads current form and efficiency: 3-0, defensive EPA/play allowed -0.1356 versus Miami +0.1697, success .4025 versus .3432, and points/drive 1.718 versus 1.306.
- Most likely loss: Miami wins outright or Minnesota wins by 10 or fewer, failing the -10.5 rung.
Key Number Pairs- Key-number gap: Vikings -10 is +104 / 49.02¢ versus -10.5 at +114 / 46.73¢, only a 2.29-point drop.
- Minnesota’s defense is -0.1356 EPA/play allowed versus Miami’s offense at -0.1786; Miami allows +0.1697 versus Minnesota’s -0.108 offense.
- Most likely loss: Miami wins outright or Minnesota wins by 10 or fewer; exact 10 is a loss at -10.5.
- Total Points under 39.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs- Three completed 2026 games each: Minnesota offense -0.1080 EPA/play and Miami offense -0.1786; coverage gate clears at 3 games.
- Minnesota defense -0.1356 EPA/play allowed faces Miami's -0.1786 offense; Miami defense allows +0.1697, but Minnesota's offense is only -0.1080.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota converts Miami's +0.1697 defensive EPA allowed into explosive touchdowns and reaches 40 points.
ProphetX Pairs- Current-season offense is negative for both teams: Minnesota -0.1080 and Miami -0.1786 EPA/play; points per drive are 1.718 and 1.306.
- Success/explosive rates are modest on both sides: Minnesota .4025/.0934, Miami .3432/.0736; pace is 32.00/30.95 seconds per play.
- Likeliest loss path: a short field or a few explosive plays turns this low-possession profile into 40-plus points.
- Miami Dolphins under 13.5 team points+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsOne Column, +EV Volume HandicapperWhy 2 models like it
One Column- Named edge class: PROJECTION; Miami offense EPA/play is -0.179 against Minnesota defense EPA/play allowed of -0.136.
- Miami’s season-to-date points per drive is 1.306; the matchup pairing points toward roughly 12, 13 points.
- The EPA and PPD features are computed through September 27, not game day, so the form input is one week stale.
+EV Volume Handicapper- Conservative estimate: 61% under, +8.4 percentage points versus FanDuel -111 break-even of 52.6%.
- Miami averages 12.0 points through three games; each of its first three totals stayed at 13 or below.
- Three-game offensive sample is thin, and Miami's opponent-adjusted scoring baseline is uncertain.
- Minnesota Vikings spread −10−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
NFL Spread Detective- Strategy score MIN +0.032 vs MIA -1.354; EPA edge +1.386.
- Primary EPA edge +0.680: MIN +0.028 vs MIA -0.652.
- Only three 2026 games supply the team rates; early-season variance is material.
Long Way Home- Minnesota’s first-three-game average margin is +10.0; Miami’s is -16.7, a 26.7-point form separation before matchup adjustments.
- Minnesota averages 23.7 points and allows 13.7; Miami averages 12.0 and allows 28.7 through three regular-season games.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota wins by nine or fewer as Justin Jefferson’s confirmed absence suppresses the Vikings’ offense.
- Game total under 38.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsPace Ledger, NFL HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Pace Ledger- 38.5 exceeds team totals 24.5 MIN + 13.5 MIA by 0.5.
- 2 × ProphetX first-half 18.5 equals 37.0, 1.5 below the full-game rung.
- Most likely loss: 62.95-play pace plus positive PROE creates enough possessions and pass variance for 39+.
NFL HunterV2- Model total projects roughly 33, 34 points from current points-per-drive: MIN 1.718, MIA 1.306.
- Minnesota’s pregame defense is -0.1356 EPA/play; Miami’s offense is -0.1786 EPA/play with a 0.3432 success rate.
- Minnesota’s 83.4% FPI win projection creates blowout and short-field scoring risk.
- Ollie Gordon II anytime touchdown+350%Won
Taken at +350 on DraftKings
TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scenario model: roughly 31% anytime-touchdown probability versus 22.2% DraftKings break-even.
- Gordon's Week 3 workload was 17 carries, 3 targets and 61 snaps after Achane's injury; Achane is now on IR.
- His 20 carries through two active games include a touchdown, and Miami's backfield opportunity is materially consolidated.
- Miami's 36 points through three games imply a low overall touchdown environment.
Show all 25 picks
- Miami Dolphins by 7-14−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's Minnesota -10 anchor centers the margin distribution near key scoring numbers.
- The bucket contains 7, 10, and 14, creating the key-number mass generic smoothing tends to underprice.
- Aggregate 2016+ key-number frequencies are not matchup-specific; regime or personnel changes could reduce the 12% estimate.
- Under total 38.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days - Miami Dolphins spread +10.0+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
NFL Luck RegressionUp 48% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Luck Score: Minnesota +0.952 vs Miami -0.232; 1.184 differential clears the 0.50 trigger.
- Primary luck: Minnesota +0.084 vs Miami -0.225; 0.309 differential clears the 0.20 trigger.
- Minnesota owns a 0.333 non-offensive-TD rate, 80.0% offensive red-zone TD rate and a 2-0 one-score record.
- Minnesota's underlying profile is stronger: -0.108 offensive EPA/play and -0.136 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Miami's -0.179 and +0.170.
- Miami Dolphins first-half spread +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- RECOMMENDED • INTERNAL COHERENCE: full-game MIN -9.5 plus a roughly MIN -4.5 second-half anchor implies a first-half margin near MIN -5, not -6.5.
- Pace inputs are 32.00 seconds/play for MIN and 30.95 for MIA; PPD is 1.718 versus 1.306, an advantage for MIN but not six-plus first-half points.
- Square-root drive scaling matters: half-margin SD scales with sqrt(drives), not linearly with drives; the fitted half distribution retains wider relative dispersion and favors the +6.5 cushion.
- MIN's -0.108 offensive EPA, MIA's +0.170 defensive EPA allowed, and the 1.718 MIN PPD can produce an early Vikings lead that exhausts the cushion.
- Malik Willis over 169.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 100% offensive snap share in each of Miami's first three games; primary QB role is secure.
- Willis has 220, 197, and 210 passing yards; 169.5 is 81% of the 209-yard three-game average.
- Miami is a 9.5-point underdog with a 38.5-point total, creating a trailing-game path to sustained passing.
- Minnesota's recent defense has allowed -0.1356 EPA per play and carries a 65.0 team grade.
- Malik Washington over 40.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MIA OL state: Aaron Brewer was full; only listed Dolphins OT out is depth player Chukwuebuka Godrick; MIN has Elijah Williams out at DE.
- Pass matchup: Miami's 52.3 pass-block grade faces Minnesota's 60.8 pass-rush grade and 60 pressures; run side is less favorable, 60.7 vs 72.0.
- Mechanism confirmed: Malik Willis has faced 43 pressure dropbacks through three games, while Miami's PROE is +6.0%.
- Minnesota pressure can create sacks, throwaways, or uncatchable targets despite Miami's likely trailing script.
- Chris Bell over 2.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Role trend: Week 1 50.9% snaps/21 routes, Week 2 40.7%/12, Week 3 71.2%/33.
- Caleb Douglas was ESPN-live Out in Weeks 3 and 4; his Week 1-2 role was 90.9%/35 and 86.4%/26 routes, with Bell absorbing 33 routes in Week 3.
- Bell is observed WR2 by season position-group rank; Miami averages 56.7 plays and 55.3% pass, projecting 31.3 pass plays, 6.0 Bell targets and 3.1 receptions.
- Most likely loss: Douglas's vacated routes split among multiple receivers, leaving Bell at two or fewer catches.
- Greg Dulcich over 31.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −109 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- That is a 47.3% production shortfall despite 69.1% average snaps across the last three games.
- The 31.5-yard line is 81% below the 57.0-yard per-game projection; DraftKings offers -109.
- Current-season YPRR is only 1.22 versus 2.31 last season, so the efficiency baseline may not transfer.
- Game under 38.5 total points+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last-three scoring averages combine for 35.7 points: Miami 12.0, Minnesota 23.7.
- Miami’s last-six offensive EPA/play is -0.2981; Minnesota’s last-six defensive EPA allowed is -0.0794.
- Season-to-date pace is slow: 30.95 seconds/play Miami and 32.0 Minnesota.
- Miami’s defense has allowed positive EPA/play (+0.0477) over the last six, creating a path for Minnesota to score efficiently.
- Game total under 33.5+83%Won
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 19 live offensive plays produced -0.47 MIN and -0.55 MIA EPA/play; both offenses are currently inefficient.
- Minnesota success rate is 11.1%, Miami's is 40.0%, and only two explosive plays have occurred.
- Miami's latest 8-play, 26-yard drive ended in a punt; pregame points-per-drive baselines were only 1.718 MIN and 1.306 MIA.
- The sample is only 19 plays with 2:07 left in Q1; one explosive touchdown can invalidate the low-scoring read.
- Minnesota Vikings first touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota has converted 4 of 5 red-zone trips; Miami has allowed 11 scores on 14 opponent red-zone trips (both 80%-class rates).
- Miami has converted only 2 of 7 red-zone trips, while Minnesota's defense has allowed 1 score on 9 opponent trips.
- The sharp-reference board makes Minnesota an 82c moneyline favorite; the lead-game-script assumption favors its opening touchdown equity.
- First-touchdown timing is high variance: Miami can win the opening-drive race even with the weaker full-game scoring profile.
- Aaron Jones Sr. touchdowns 1+−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Aaron Jones Sr. is roster-active, RB depth rank 1, and labeled a workhorse: 67.6% snap share, 44.5% run-snap rate.
- Minnesota converted 4 of 5 early-season red-zone trips; Miami has allowed 11 touchdowns on 14 opponent red-zone trips.
- Minnesota is an 82c moneyline favorite; script assumption is that a lead concentrates late goal-line work on the lead back.
- Jordan Mason is the RB2/early-down hammer with a 51.7% run-snap rate, creating real carry and goal-line competition.
- Miami Dolphins +10+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Miami +10 pushes/refunds if Minnesota wins by exactly 10; Miami +10.5 would win at that same margin.
- ProphetX Miami +10 is 51.22¢ (-105), only 2.48¢ below +10.5 at 53.70¢ (-116), below the 4.66-point historical push mass.
- Miami +10 loses if Minnesota wins by 11 or more; this is not a projection-model claim.
- Minnesota Vikings first-half wins by over 6.5 points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rest is neutral: Minnesota 7 days, Miami 7 days; no short-week advantage.
- Minnesota defense -0.1356 versus Miami +0.1697 allowed; Minnesota offense leads -0.108 to -0.1786.
- FanDuel directly quotes the same 1H -6.5 rung at -120; Kalshi raw 0.52 is a fraction, or 52¢.
- No rest mismatch removes the brief's strongest first-half lever.
- Minnesota Vikings spread −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota owns a +0.0706 offensive EPA/play edge and a +0.3053 defensive EPA/play edge through three games.
- Vikings lead success rate .4025 to .3432 and explosive rate .0934 to .0736; Miami is 0-3 with a -16.7 recent average margin.
- Live Week 4 checks identify Kyler Murray as Minnesota's starter and Malik Willis as Miami's expected starter; neither is Out/Doubtful for this game.
- Miami's +0.0609 PROE and Willis' mobility create a path to explosive plays despite the poor early efficiency.
- Minnesota Vikings to win+20%Won
Taken at −510 on FanDuel
Brewing NFL MlDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota's OL has a 71.3 pass-block grade and 17 pressures allowed; Miami's OL is 55.8 with 32 pressures allowed.
- Current depth chart lists Kyler Murray and Malik Willis as the respective QB1s, removing an unmodeled starter scenario.
- Kyler has only 41 current-season dropbacks, -0.28 PFF EPA/dropback and a 50.5 pass grade.
- Game total over 39−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX over 39 is 48.31¢ (+107) versus over 39.5 at 47.17¢ (+112): only a 1.14-point premium for the push.
- A push returns stake rather than profit, and totals of 38 or fewer lose.
- Game total under 32.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both teams averaged just 3.1, 3.9 yards per play, converted 2 of 6 third downs, and had zero turnovers.
- Minnesota-control thesis is directionally coherent: the Vikings can protect a lead without requiring a shootout.
- Most likely loss: Minnesota scores multiple second-half touchdowns or Miami adds garbage-time points, reaching 33.
- Minnesota Vikings −10−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair line: Minnesota -11.5; estimated cover probability 55%, versus DK -105 break-even 51.2%.
- Miami is 0-3 with a -16.7 average margin; Minnesota is 3-0 with a +10.0 average margin.
- Minnesota leads PFF overall grade 69.7 to 56.3 and defense grade 65.0 to 53.2.
- Only three regular-season games provide the cleanest current sample; early-season estimates remain noisy.
Questions
Who won Dolphins vs. Vikings?
The Vikings won 15–10 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.