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Jets vs. BearsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSoldier Field
Jets1–2
12–23Final
Bears2–1
Score by period
Team1234T
NYJ033612
CHI767323

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Bears to win −180

Why Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0 likes it: Model B: Chicago leads New York in current off EPA/play, 0.077 to -0.117, and defensive EPA allowed, -0.080 to 0.094.

Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0Up 22% return this season · 22 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-12 on this game · −9% return

  1. Chicago Bears to win3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +56%Won

    Taken at −180 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBrewing NFL Moneylines 2.0, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Model B: Chicago leads New York in current off EPA/play, 0.077 to -0.117, and defensive EPA allowed, -0.080 to 0.094.
    • Chicago leads success rate 46.4% to 41.4% and points per drive 2.412 to 1.610 through five games.
    • Caleb Williams is out; Tyson Bagent is expected but the Bears had not formally confirmed the starter at the last live report.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total pairing is the two-measure signal; backing Chicago Bears, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference: order depth can be stale, cancelled, concentrated, or affected by one participant rather than informed demand.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • NFL predictor projects Chicago at 67.805% with a 4.805-point margin; ProphetX's moneyline is 63.24¢.
    • Chicago leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.1058 to -0.0028 and defense EPA/play -0.1505 to -0.0602; success rate is 0.4746 to 0.4544.
    • Likeliest loss path: Bagent's replacement-level offense stalls while Geno Smith exploits Chicago secondary absences for an early lead.
  2. D'Andre Swift over 64.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 64.8% three-game snap share with a workhorse label and 18.0 carries per game.
    • 84-yard three-game median rushing output; 64.5 is 76.8% of that trailing median.
    • Caleb Williams is out, and Tyson Bagent's performance could force Chicago into a pass-heavy comeback script.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 84.3 rushing yards per game through three contests is 30.7% above 64.5.
    • Swift has 54 carries, or 18.0 per game, 24.1% above the 14.5-carry market line.
    • Chicago's offensive line loses starting tackle Braxton Jones, which can reduce rushing efficiency.
  3. Garrett Wilson over 6.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +101 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 27 targets and 21 receptions through three games: 9.0 targets and 7.0 catches per game.
    • Wilson owns an 85.5% offensive snap share and is New York's clear primary wideout.
    • Three-game 2026 sample; his 2023-25 averages were below seven receptions per game.
    NFL HunterV2
    • 27 targets and 21 receptions through three games; his current-season catch rate is 77.8%.
    • Route participation is stable: 115 routes and an 85.5% snap share.
    • He has cleared 6.5 receptions only twice in three games: 6, 5, and 10.
  4. Fourth quarter ends levelLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NYJ +0.5 at 0.54 minus NYJ -1.5 at 0.35 implies a 0.19 draw probability.
    • Direct fourth-quarter draw contract is priced at 0.14, a five-point structural contradiction.
    • Screened board: 1Q identity matched, 1H gap was 0.01, while 2Q/3Q ladders failed monotonicity; 4Q is a five-point gap.
    • Quote-side spreads can distort subtraction; this is structural, not an independent fair-probability estimate.
  5. D'Andre Swift over 14.5 rushing attemptsHigh conviction
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 54 carries in three games: 18.0 per game, clearing 14.5 every time.
    • Workhorse role: 64.7% snap share and 57 charted run snaps.
    • Chicago is favored, while QB uncertainty increases the likelihood of a run-oriented plan.
    • Only a three-game current-season sample; workload could regress.
  6. New York Jets +6 spreadHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New York Jets +6 pushes if Chicago wins by exactly 6; +6.5 loses on that result.
    • 3.443% historical push probability: Chicago won by exactly 6 in 95 of 2,758 NFL games (2016-2025 regular season/postseason).
    • ProphetX prices Jets +6 at 58.68¢ (-142) versus adjacent +6.5 at 59.02¢ (-144), a nearly identical price despite the push option.
    • The 3.443% is a refund/push mass, not a win probability; the Jets still lose on margins of 7 or more.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game first-half total over 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • 6.0 Chicago plus 5.0 New York first-half drives and current points-per-drive produce a 25.3-point H1 projection.
    • Fresh historical H1 totals average 23.08 with 9.04 SD; the model is 3.8 points above 21.5, roughly 66% over before sample uncertainty.
    • The 25.3 projection is driven by only three games of team drive and points-per-drive data.
  2. Chicago Bears first-half spread −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • 6.0 Chicago and 5.0 New York first-half drives per game in the fresh 2026 sample.
    • Points-per-drive projects Chicago 15.0, New York 10.3: Bears +4.7 at halftime versus a 53c Bears -2.5 contract.
    • Only three 2026 games inform the drive and points-per-drive estimates.
  3. Colston Loveland over 34.5 receiving yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.3 yards/game over his last three versus a 40.2-yard blended projection: 71.8% underperformance.
    • Blended Sleeper/ESPN projection is 40.2 yards, 16.6% above the live 34.5-yard line.
    • DraftKings held 34.5 unchanged from the Oct. 3 evening snapshot through the 9:20 AM PDT pregame snapshot.
    • Caleb Williams is out and Tyson Bagent starts, creating quarterback and target-distribution uncertainty.
  4. New York Jets under 20.5 team points
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jets points per drive is 2.0581; the matchup fit is roughly 17.5, 19.0 points before red-zone adjustment.
    • The board looks spread-split: 43.5 game total and Chicago -3.5 imply roughly 23.5 Chicago / 20.0 Jets; listed team totals are 23.5 and 20.5, summing to 44.
    • Chicago's quarterback was not officially announced; Tyson Bagent is expected, leaving possession and game-script effects uncertain.
  5. Luther Burden III over 6.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: 57% to reach 7+ receptions; fair price approximately -133.
    • Burden has 3 receptions on 3 targets with 49 yards at 1:49 Q1.
    • Chicago has run 15 plays with a 53.3% season pass rate; the live drive is 10 plays, 56 yards, at the NYJ 1.
    • Three targets is a small live sample and target share can regress sharply as Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland remain involved.
  6. Chicago Bears first team touchdown
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • D'Andre Swift is the declared RB1 and carries a 64.7% offensive snap share; goal-line equity is derived from this role proxy, not a single goal-line field.
    • Chicago has produced 6 touchdowns on 12 red-zone trips through three games; the Jets have allowed 7 touchdowns on 10 opposing red-zone trips.
    • Chicago's pregame offense is at 2.50 points per drive versus New York's 2.06, supporting more early scoring opportunities for the home side.
    • Caleb Williams is confirmed out at 8:34 AM; Tyson Bagent is the next listed quarterback, but the backup's exact scripted plan is uncertain.
  7. D'Andre Swift 1+ touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Swift is Chicago's RB1/workhorse: 64.7% snap share and 18, 16, 20 carries in Weeks 1-3.
    • Chicago produced 12 red-zone trips in three games; Jets opponents produced 10, with 7 conversions.
    • Chicago's +0.1058 offensive EPA to date and 5.1% PROE support scoring opportunity; favorite script can concentrate goal-line carries.
    • Caleb Williams is listed Out; Tyson Bagent replacing the QB could reduce Chicago's touchdown expectation and conversion quality.
  8. Chicago Bears −3.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total pairing supplies the two-measure signal; backing Chicago Bears -3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference: displayed depth can be stale, cancelled, or dominated by a single participant.
  9. Luther Burden III over 46.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Burden averages 52.0 receiving yards through three games, 11.8% above the 46.5 line.
    • He cleared the line twice in three games with 63, 32, and 61 receiving yards.
    • His 23 targets and 90 routes through three games support a meaningful role despite a 63.8% snap share.
    • Burden is not an every-down player; his 63.8% snap share leaves route volatility.
  10. Luther Burden III under 46.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NGS REG 2026, 3 games: 7.75 intended air yards; PFF REGPO 2026: 12 short, 8 medium, 0 deep targets.
    • NGS REG 2026, 3 games: 2.68-yard separation versus 4.08 across seven 2025 rows; separation is down.
    • 1.86 YPRR, 67.1 route grade, 93.3% route rate; 2025 baseline was 2.34/77.7/95.6.
    • The Jets primary outside/slot CB assignment and coverage grade are unresolved pregame; I cap this at 0.5u.
  11. Game total over 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.98 combined pace (32.27 NYJ, 31.71 CHI) through three 2026 games.
    • ESPN game-day information has Caleb Williams out; Tyson Bagent expected to start, while Geno Smith is active.
    • Rest is six days for Chicago and seven for New York; the game is non-neutral.
    • Most likely loss: Bagent's replacement-QB efficiency creates stalled Chicago drives after Williams' confirmed absence.
  12. Game total under 43
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 43 pushes at exactly 43; adjacent under 43.5 wins at 43.
    • ProphetX ladder: under 43 is +112 (47.17¢), versus under 43.5 at +101 (49.75¢); over 43.5 is -103.
    • ProphetX is the self-reference, not an independent sharp reference; its ladder can reprice before execution.
  13. Chicago Bears spread −3.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Through three regular-season games, Chicago averages +0.106 offensive EPA/play and -0.151 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • New York averages -0.003 offensive EPA/play and -0.060 defensive EPA/play allowed over the same span.
    • Chicago has won its last two by 20 and 22 points; the model read is a Bears margin beyond the 3.5 threshold.
    • Three-game samples are noisy, and Chicago's 59-point opener inflates its offensive average.
  14. Game total under 43.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total 41.5; under 43.5 estimated at 56%, about +3.6 percentage points versus DK's 52.4% price.
    • Chicago defense allows -0.1505 EPA/play to date; New York's offense is -0.0028 EPA/play overall and -0.1072 over its recent window.
    • Caleb Williams is officially out; Tyson Bagent is expected to start, while Breece Hall is out for New York.
    • Chicago's offense is still +0.1058 EPA/play to date, and Bagent's exact game-day workload is uncertain.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Bears?

The Bears won 23–12 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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