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Cowboys vs. EaglesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLincoln Financial Field
Cowboys2–4
38–21Final
Eagles2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
DAL101081038
PHI777021

Top model pick, graded

Won

Dallas Cowboys to win 68¢

Why Quantitative +EV Analyst likes it: Last-10 offense EPA/play: Dallas +0.0826 versus Philadelphia -0.1694, a 0.2520 gap.

Quantitative +EV AnalystDown 7% this season · 89 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 26-40 on this game · −29% return

  1. Dallas Cowboys to winFavorite9 models agreeHigh conviction
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    9 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0 +7
    Why 9 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Last-10 offense EPA/play: Dallas +0.0826 versus Philadelphia -0.1694, a 0.2520 gap.
    • Dallas has a .508 recent success rate versus Philadelphia’s .4006.
    • Dallas is only 2-4 and Philadelphia is also 2-4; recent efficiency can overstate true team strength.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • ESPN FPI projects Dallas at 71.9% with a 5.95-point predicted margin.
    • Dallas leads current offense EPA/play 0.101 to Philadelphia's -0.158; success rate is 0.505 versus 0.405.
    • Philadelphia's defense is materially better by current EPA: -0.008 allowed/play versus Dallas's +0.135.
    Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
    • Live model gives Dallas 75.5% win probability; I haircut that to 74.0% for early-game uncertainty.
    • Dallas leads 10-7 with a 16-4 play edge and 0.476 offensive EPA/play at 68.8% success.
    • Pinnacle is sharply opposed at Dallas -124, an unusually wide reference disagreement.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Confirmed QBs at 3:50, 3:53 PM PT: Dak Prescott starts for Dallas; Tanner McKee starts for Philadelphia; Jalen Hurts is on IR.
    • Independent NFL predictor gives Dallas 71.9%; I haircut to 71.0% for unresolved Barkley/Greenard participation uncertainty.
    • Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt remain questionable; participation is unresolved shortly before kickoff.
  2. Dallas Cowboys −4.53 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Dallas has a positive recent offensive EPA/play profile (0.0784); Philadelphia’s recent offense is -0.1943 EPA/play with Jalen Hurts out.
    • No pregame lineups are confirmed; Saquon Barkley and multiple Eagles contributors remain questionable.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; two measures agree. Backing Dallas -4.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Dallas has +0.111 offensive EPA/play versus Philadelphia -0.183, plus a .511-to-.393 success-rate edge through nine games.
    • Personnel gate passes: Dak Prescott and Tanner McKee are both expected and neither is Out/Doubtful; both teams have eight rest days.
    • Both quarterbacks are expected rather than officially confirmed; Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley is questionable.
  3. Dallas Cowboys spread −4.53 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 53.0%: Dallas net EPA/play -0.033 versus Philadelphia -0.150 across six regular-season games.
    • Dallas success rate is 50.5% versus Philadelphia's 40.5%; both last played October 18, so rest is even.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; inactives are not posted and Saquon Barkley remains questionable.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Six-game EPA mismatch: Dallas offense +0.1014/play versus Philadelphia defense -0.0084; Philadelphia offense -0.1584 versus Dallas defense +0.1347.
    • PFF supports the side: Dallas offense 77.2 and passing 83.1 versus Philadelphia offense 68.2 and passing 60.8.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas fails to separate on the road and Philadelphia covers +4.5 behind home field.
    Long Way Home
    • Confirmed at 3:50, 3:53 PM PDT: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson are out; Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are active.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas's defense allowed +0.1347 EPA/play to date, letting Philadelphia stay within the number.
  4. Dallas Cowboys first-half winner2 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSplit Decision, Locker Room
    Why 2 models like it
    Split Decision
    • Rest is even at 8 days each; the edge is efficiency, not a rest mismatch.
    • Pinnacle full-game Dallas -225 and Philadelphia +4.5 agree with Dallas; applying the efficiency gap to the 1H three-way structure gives a 60% Dallas-win estimate, 9% tie, 31% Philadelphia-win.
    • Dallas must win the half, not merely lead; the separate tie contract is priced around 10¢.
    Locker Room
    • Dallas leads to-date offense EPA/play 0.1014 to Philadelphia -0.1584; points per drive 2.809 to 1.689.
    • Pace is faster for Dallas: 27.43 seconds/play versus Philadelphia 29.76, supporting more early possessions.
    • Jalen Hurts is listed out, but Philadelphia starters are not confirmed; late lineup information could move the projection.
  5. CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Regression Radar, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Regression Radar
    • 44 targets over the last three games (14.7 per game) with a 77.0% average snap share.
    • The 122.7-yard projection is 54.3% above FanDuel's 79.5-yard line; Lamb is a confirmed starter.
    • The 44-target sample includes a 21-target game and a five-target game, so opportunity is volatile.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Last five receiving-yard results average 106.6, 34% above the 79.5 line.
    • 2026 season average is 96.2 yards across six games, 21% above the line.
    • Only 3 of six games cleared 79.5; outcomes range from 9 to 189 yards.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles team total under 19.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsOne Column, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    One Column
    • PROJECTION, Philadelphia's offense is -0.194 EPA/play, 40.8% success, and 1.627 points per drive through five games.
    • The live lineup feed lists Tanner McKee as expected, Jalen Hurts out in the slate context, DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out, and Saquon Barkley questionable.
    • Dallas allows +0.100 EPA/play, so its weak defense can give Philadelphia enough short fields to clear 20.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Philadelphia averages 17.7 points through six games and 16.4 over its last five.
    • Eagles offense produces -0.158 EPA per play, 40.5% success, and 1.689 points per drive this season.
    • Dallas owns a weak 53.0 defensive PFF grade and allows +0.135 EPA per play, creating explosive-drive risk.
Show all 50 picks
  1. Philadelphia Eagles to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSkip Bayless Tracker, Fade Stephen A. Smith
    Why 2 models like it
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • Oct. 24 Yahoo report: Skip said, “my gut feeling is Philly will just figure out how to win that game even without Jalen Hurts.”
    • This is a specific winner call on Cowboys @ Eagles, not a season-long opinion; the game is scheduled for tonight.
    • Philadelphia is missing Jalen Hurts, and Kalshi prices the Eagles at only 34% to win.
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • ESPN's Oct. 22 video identifies his specific call: “Stephen A. expects Cowboys to beat ‘anemic’ Eagles.”
    • The take is a clear winner prediction on Monday's scheduled Cowboys-Eagles game, making Philadelphia the direct fade.
    • The live market makes Philadelphia only a 35.5% side; the consensus may correctly reflect Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson being listed out.
  2. Dallas Cowboys exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle centers the game at Dallas -4.5, providing the directional anchor for the margin distribution.
    • The recomputed 2016-2026 NFL histogram puts margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 at 1,279 of 2,848 games (44.9%), within the Tier 1 sanity band.
    • Only about a 2-point raw probability edge before venue fees and execution; this is a narrow tail, not a high-margin position.
  3. Over 44.5 total points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas averaged 2.77 points per drive across its recent five-game window, while its offense posted 0.0784 EPA/play.
    • Philadelphia’s offense is struggling at -0.1943 recent EPA/play, and Jalen Hurts plus Lane Johnson are ruled out; that directly threatens the over.
  4. Under total 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle live 51.0 total (-112/-108) devigs to 47.6% Under at 51.0; SD 13.93 shifts p_anchor to 46.2% Under 50.5.
    • FULL tier: Dak Prescott and Tanner McKee were confirmed at 3:53/3:50 PM; both teams have six current-season games; 2,865-game key-number mass was computed this wake.
    • Philadelphia's -0.158 offensive EPA/play, 40.5% success rate and 1.69 points/drive trail Dallas at 0.101, 50.5% and 2.81.
    • The game already has 17 points at 3:53 of Q1; another explosive sequence or short field can push the final total over 50.5.
  5. Dallas Cowboys spread −5.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Dallas -4.0 was 50.0%; SD 13.5 plus this wake's 2,865-game key-number mass gives p_anchor 49.0% at -5.5.
    • FULL tier: both starting QBs were confirmed at 3:53 PM (Dak Prescott) and 3:50 PM (Tanner McKee); both teams have six regular-season games.
    • Dallas leads current-season offense: +0.101 EPA/play, 50.5% success, and 2.81 points/drive versus Philadelphia's -0.158, 40.5%, and 1.69.
    • Philadelphia is home and has the better current defensive EPA allowed figure: -0.008 versus Dallas at +0.135.
  6. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +16500

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas: Cowboys' recent +0.078 EPA/play offense faces an Eagles offense at -0.194 EPA/play; Dallas ML is -205.
    • Philadelphia has Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith out; Dallas is priced -205 while the ticket uses the venue's exact -205 offer.
    • Rangers lose value without injured Igor Shesterkin; James Reimer is confirmed, but the Kings' Darcy Kuemper remains only expected.
  7. Jake Ferguson anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +270 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ferguson has scored 3 times on 24 targets in six games and is a confirmed starter.
    • Dallas’ projected scoring environment is supported by 2.809 points/drive and +0.1014 offensive EPA/play.
    • The +270 price implies 27.0%; model probability is 37%, fair price approximately +170.
    • Ferguson’s target share is modest and his 46.8 PFF route grade signals efficiency uncertainty.
  8. Game under 31.5 first-half total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the drive-based blend centers the first half near 28, 29 points; Under costs 46¢ against a 63% estimate.
    • At Dallas 10, Philadelphia 7 with 5:32 left in Q1, 15 or more additional points are required to beat 31.5; roughly 24:28 of first-half clock remains.
    • the quoted 1H 31.5 plus thin 2H 21.5 sums to 53.0 against the full-game 52.5 anchor, making the 1H over the vulnerable side.
    • A fast opening pace can persist: only 15 more points are needed, and one explosive or short-field drive materially changes the tail.
  9. Dallas Goedert over 5.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +111 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Goedert caught 6 passes on 9 targets in Week 5 and 6 on 8 in Week 6.
    • His route snaps increased from 31 to 40 and snap share from 69.4% to 81.3% across the last two games.
    • DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are Out, consolidating Philadelphia targets; Goedert is expected without an injury designation.
    • Tanner McKee is the expected quarterback after Jalen Hurts was ruled Out, creating passing-efficiency and distribution uncertainty.
  10. Dak Prescott over 35.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dak averages 41.0 pass attempts through six games (246 total), comfortably above 35.5.
    • Dallas pass rate rose from 65.8% to 76.4% to 79.7% over Weeks 4-6.
    • Prescott is expected and carries no injury designation; DraftKings is -123 on the over.
    • Philadelphia's defense posted negative defensive EPA in Weeks 4-5, which can suppress sustained drives.
  11. Makai Lemon over 4.5 first-quarter receiving yards
    +86%Won

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Direct DraftKings 1Q line is 4.5 at -116; devigged over probability is 50.5%.
    • Model probability: 62%; 11.5-point edge over the devigged market.
    • Makai cleared 4.5 yards in four of six 2026 first quarters and totaled 50 yards, averaging 8.3.
    • Makai recorded zero first-quarter yards in the latest game; short samples make the estimate volatile.
  12. Dak Prescott under 63.5 first-quarter passing yards
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Direct DraftKings 1Q line is 63.5 at -115; devigged under probability is 50.3%.
    • Model probability: 72%; 21.7-point edge over the devigged market.
    • Dak has 300 first-quarter passing yards across six 2026 games, averaging 50.0; five stayed under 63.5.
    • A single explosive completion or short-field possession can push Dak past the number quickly.
  13. Dak Prescott over 35.5 passing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 100% offensive snap share in each of his last three games.
    • 45, 42, and 54 attempts last three; 47.0 average and three straight overs.
    • Dallas posted a 68.2% pass-play rate across its last five games.
    • A Dallas lead could produce a late run-heavy script and suppress fourth-quarter attempts.
  14. Under 43 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  15. Philadelphia Eagles first-half spread over 2.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread is Philadelphia +4.5; the line has not moved more than 1.5 points since open.
    • Recent first-half margins average Philadelphia +2.0 and Dallas -6.7 across six games.
    • Tanner McKee is expected rather than formally confirmed in the warehouse; Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are out.
  16. Jake Ferguson over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Dallas starting TE at 3:53 PM; Ferguson is TE1 by position-group rank with a 68.2% season snap share and 192 routes in six games.
    • Last three games: 70.5%/38, 83.3%/33, and 53.8%/33 snap share/routes; the role supplies at least 33 routes despite the Week 6 snap dip.
    • Dallas averages 64.5 offensive plays and has a 59.0% first-down pass rate, 68.5% second-down pass rate, and 83.3% third-down pass rate.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas leads and shifts toward Javonte Williams, leaving Ferguson near 33 routes but below three catches.
  17. Darius Cooper over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed WR2 starter at 3:50 PM; DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are official ESPN-live OUT.
    • Smith vacated an 86.1% snap share and 146 routes in four games; Wicks vacated 78.5% and 195 routes across six.
    • Darius ran 90.2%/31, 85.5%/40, and 60.9%/27 snaps/routes in Weeks 4-6; his 31 and 40 routes came while Smith was absent.
    • Most likely loss: the two vacancies split among Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goedert, and backs, leaving Cooper at three or fewer.
  18. Total points under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game sample: Dallas offense is +0.1014 EPA/play against Philadelphia defense at -0.0084; Philadelphia offense is -0.1584 against Dallas defense at +0.1347.
    • QB gate cleared at 3:50, 3:53pm: Dak Prescott and Tanner McKee are confirmed; Jalen Hurts remains on injured reserve, with DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson out.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas efficiency converts against Philadelphia's defense and the Cowboys create enough short fields to clear 43.5.
  19. Game total under 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team totals 18.5 + 24.5 imply 43.0, one point below this full-game 44 rung.
    • ProphetX first-half total 21.5 × 2 implies 43.0; the full-game under 44 retains a one-point cushion.
    • Projection context: six 2026 games each; pace_to_date is 29.765 for Philadelphia and 27.433 for Dallas, with eight rest days apiece.
    • Only a one-point self-reference gap; team-total and first-half ladders are related, not independent forecasts.
  20. Dallas Cowboys spread −1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas leads the point-in-time offensive EPA comparison: +0.1014/play versus Philadelphia -0.1584/play through Week 6.
    • Tanner McKee and Dak Prescott are both confirmed starters; Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts absence is therefore incorporated explicitly, not assumed.
    • exact-rung sportsbook prices exist, including Pinnacle Dallas -1.5 -183; this projection still clears a stated 4-point price bar by 5.5 points.
    • Philadelphia's defense has allowed -0.0084 EPA/play while Dallas has allowed +0.1347, so Dallas' offensive edge may be offset by defensive leakage.
  21. Total points under 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia's offense is -0.1584 EPA/play to date and averaged 1.627 points per drive over its last five.
    • Tanner McKee is the latest Philadelphia QB1; Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve, and DeVonta Smith is out.
    • Dallas allows +0.1347 defensive EPA/play to date, creating a path for Philadelphia to exceed its weak offensive baseline.
  22. CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • p_raw 66.7%; 4 of 6 current games cleared 6.5 receptions.
    • p_market 54.5%, devigged from DraftKings -137 over and +107 under.
    • shrink_factor 0.50; direct six-game routes, targets, receptions, and catch-rate inputs.
    • Dallas target distribution is volatile: Lamb saw 5 and 18 targets in his last two games.
  23. George Pickens over 65.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 straight games over 65.5 yards; 4 of 6 overall.
    • 85.1% season snap share, 91.8% route rate, and 54 routes in Week 6.
    • 52 targets, 428 yards, 1.83 YPRR, and 74.6 PFF receiving grade.
    • Small six-game sample; the first two games finished below this number.
  24. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scenario model mean is 41.7 points; under probability is 56.2%.
    • Philadelphia averaged 16.4 points over its last five; its offense posted -0.1943 EPA/play in that window.
    • Jalen Hurts is on IR, Tanner McKee is confirmed to start, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out.
    • Dallas allowed +0.1004 defensive EPA/play over its last five, creating a credible Eagles scoring rebound path.
  25. George Pickens receiving yards over 62.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 71.3-yard 2026 average; 428 yards on 6 games.
    • Pickens cleared 62.5 in 4 of 6 exact-stat results: 73, 130, 75, 82, 40, 28.
    • Confirmed starter with 85.1% offensive snap share and 91.8% route rate.
    • Two of six games stayed below this line, including 28 yards in the latest six-game sample.
  26. Dallas Cowboys first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas's offense is +0.101 EPA/play to date versus Philadelphia at -0.158, a meaningful script and scoring-opportunity gap.
    • Philadelphia's live lineup has Jalen Hurts out, Tanner McKee expected at QB, and Saquon Barkley questionable, weakening the opponent's early scoring outlook.
    • Dallas first touchdown costs 59c; my usage/script estimate is 63c.
    • First touchdown depends heavily on coin toss and opening-drive scripting, neither is known at this wake.
  27. Javonte Williams rushing yards under 64.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4-1 under 64.5; L10: 7-3; season: 5-1, no pushes.
    • Williams averages 55.2 rushing yards over the last five, 14.4% below the line; the 98-yard game is the lone L5 over.
    • He has a confirmed starting role, 76.2% season snap share, and 14.2 carries per current-season game.
    • Williams has exceeded this line in one of his last five and can clear it on one explosive run.
  28. Dak Prescott passing yards over 264.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4-1 over 264.5; L10: 8-2; season: 4-2, no pushes.
    • Last three outputs were 316, 335, and 276 yards; L5 average is 292.8, 10.7% above line.
    • Dallas passes on 67.7% of plays; Prescott owns a 100% snap share and 37.7 attempts per game.
    • Philadelphia's 63.5 coverage grade and -0.008 defensive EPA allowed can reduce efficiency.
  29. Philadelphia Eagles +4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home teams lost by exactly 4 in 71 of 2,759 NFL regular/postseason games from 2016, 25: 2.573% empirical push probability for this side.
    • Only 71 historical home losses by exactly 4; all-game frequency may not fit this matchup.
  30. Javonte Williams under 64.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five rushing-yard results average 55.2, 14.4% below the 64.5 line.
    • Williams is averaging 52.8 rushing yards over six games, 18.1% below the line.
    • He stayed under 64.5 in five of six games; only the 98-yard Week 3 result beat it.
    • Dallas' +0.1014 offensive EPA/play can produce a favorable lead and more late rushing.
  31. Game total under 20.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 2¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION, Tier 2: 125.6 modeled combined plays (Dallas 65.8, Philadelphia 59.9) from season/last-five pace inputs.
    • Blended points-per-drive construction gives a 43.5-point mean and rough 13.0-point SD.
    • Pinnacle's 44.0 total (-104/-108) devigs to approximately 49.5% over / 50.5% under as the sharp central anchor.
    • This is the far tail: the rough normal distribution and 13-point SD are materially less trustworthy away from the center.
  32. Dallas Cowboys first-half spread over 2.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 8 days each; Dallas' edge is efficiency, not a rest mismatch.
    • Pinnacle's full-game Dallas -4.0, scaled with roughly five first-half drives and the 1.1196 PPD gap, supports a shrunk first-half margin around 2.5, 3.0 rather than flat halving.
    • No rest advantage exists, removing the brief's strongest first-half signal.
  33. First-half total over 21.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 8 days each; Dallas supplies the pace and scoring-rate case rather than a rest boost.
    • the sharp full-game total is 43.5, 44; the possession-weighted first-half estimate is approximately 23.0, above the same-rung 21.5 contract.
    • Philadelphia's expected replacement QB could suppress the Eagles' 1.6891 baseline and break the over model.
  34. CeeDee Lamb first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +700 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas offense: +0.1014 EPA/play and 2.809 points/drive through the PIT cutoff.
    • Lamb leads the game’s priced skill players with 69 targets, 577 yards and 4 receiving TDs.
    • Confirmed starter with 92% route rate and 88.4 PFF receiving grade.
    • First-TD outcomes are highly volatile; a Javonte Williams rushing score is the main competing Dallas path.
  35. George Pickens over 62.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 92.7 receiving yards and 9.0 targets across Dallas' last three games (Weeks 4-6).
    • Philadelphia allowed 207.7 WR receiving yards per game over its last three contests.
    • Pickens logged 49, 41, and 54 route snaps in those three games; the live participant feed lists him as an expected starter.
    • Pickens is expected rather than officially confirmed; a late inactive or snap restriction is the biggest risk.
  36. Philadelphia Eagles +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Novig

    Key RungDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -103/+107 de-vigs Dallas -4 / Philadelphia +4 to 50.5% Eagles cover probability.
    • Adding estimated 4% at margin 4, 3% at margin 5 and 4% at margin 6 gives 61.5% fair at +6.5.
    • Dak Prescott and Tanner McKee are active and starting; no quarterback uncertainty remains.
    • The 3% estimate for margin 5 is approximate; key-number mass is the central model uncertainty.
  37. Philadelphia Eagles 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on FanDuel

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia is the 1Q moneyline underdog at +136 in this divisional matchup.
    • Dallas allowed +0.203 first-quarter EPA per play over its last five games, well above the -0.05 gate.
    • Dallas’ full-game spread favorite status does not erase the Eagles’ plus-money 1Q price.
    • Philadelphia averaged only 0.6 first-quarter points over its last five games.
  38. Dak Prescott over 266.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Prescott played 100% of offensive snaps in each of his last three games with 45, 42, and 54 attempts.
    • Philadelphia opponents averaged 293.8 passing yards over the last four games; three of four quarterbacks cleared 266.5.
    • Expected starter and early-week price support the lean; recheck the injury report and Eagles opponent game plan.
    • Philadelphia can limit explosive passes, and Prescott has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games.
  39. Ryan Flournoy over 33.5 receiving yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share was 74.4%, 68.3%, then 87.2%; routes jumped to 60 in Week 6.
    • Three-game receiving line: 4/37, 3/90, 7/40; 55.7-yard average and three straight overs.
    • Philadelphia allowed 196, 176, 213, and 234 WR yards over its last four games.
    • Dallas could rotate a committee receiver despite Flournoy's expected WR3 role.
  40. Tanner McKee fantasy points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posterior center is about 12.3 Sleeper PPR points; under probability 60%.
    • McKee's only 2026 start produced 215 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 0 rushing points: 12.6 before any fumble adjustment.
    • Philadelphia's last-five offense has -0.1943 EPA per play and 1.627 points per drive, limiting touchdown opportunities.
    • DeVonta Smith and multiple Eagles receivers are out, concentrating remaining targets among Dallas Goedert, Makai Lemon and other active options.
  41. Dak Prescott fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posterior center is about 15.2 Sleeper PPR points; under probability 57%.
    • Dallas is a 4.5-point road underdog with a 19.75 implied team total against Philadelphia.
    • Philadelphia's recent defense allows only -0.0025 EPA per play over five games; Dak faces a lower-efficiency scoring environment.
    • A two-touchdown game or a rushing score breaks the under quickly.
  42. CeeDee Lamb over 80 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • @RealSkipBayless, 10/23: “MONDAY NIGHT, CEEDEE OWES HIS TEAM A BIG GAME.”
    • Dak’s cited 10 TD passes and zero interceptions or lost fumbles at Philadelphia support Dallas sustaining pass-game opportunity.
    • Skip gave no numeric threshold; mapping “big game” to 80+ yards is an interpretation.
  43. George Pickens receptions over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −138 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4-1 over 4.5; L10: 6-4; season: 4-2, no pushes.
    • Pickens averages 6.0 receptions over the last five, 33.3% above line, with 8.7 targets per current-season game.
    • He is a confirmed starter with an 85.1% snap share and 255 routes through six games.
    • The L10 gate only clears at 60%, and the current-season sample is six games.
  44. Game total over 59.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over has 3 book levels versus under's 2, corroborating patient demand across two depth measures plus level count.
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; backing over 59.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The live score is already 17 at 5:32 of Q1, but 42.5 additional points are still required to clear 59.5.

Questions

Who won Cowboys vs. Eagles?

The Cowboys won 38–21 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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