Blackhawks vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUBS Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NYI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 5.5 total goals 47¢
Why Scratch Tape likes it: Connor Bedard is confirmed out; his 20:52 2025 TOI/game and 30 goals in 69 games imply roughly a conservative -0.25 team-goal swing after replacement.
Scratch TapeDown 25% this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +16% return
- Chicago Blackhawks spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: NYI win by 3+ about 23%; fair Chicago +2.5 cover about 77%.
- Low 5.75-goal anchor compresses the favorite's margin distribution; NYI's 62.8% sharp moneyline does not imply a rout.
- Chicago +2.5 is 0.73 on Polymarket US versus -310 DraftKings and -320 FanDuel, so no US book is cheaper.
- Chicago has started 1-3 with 2.25 goals per game; its current 4.25 goals-against rate is poor.
- Under 5.5 total goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Connor Bedard is confirmed out; his 20:52 2025 TOI/game and 30 goals in 69 games imply roughly a conservative -0.25 team-goal swing after replacement.
- Chicago also loses confirmed forwards Andrew Mangiapane and Teuvo Teravainen, reinforcing the offense-side subtraction.
- Polymarket US Over 5.5 rose from 0.510 opening to 0.535 current despite the subtraction; the underreaction is in the wrong direction.
- The NHL preview does not expose an exact publication timestamp, and the official Chicago lineup was still unresolved; timing could be less fresh than the board comparison suggests.
- Ilya Sorokin under 22.5 saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected about 21.6 saves after blending Chicago’s 19.3 SOG/game with New York’s 29.0 SOG allowed.
- Chicago’s last four shot totals: 26, 15, 15, 21; three stayed below 22.5.
- Sorokin is confirmed to start; he has 61 saves on 63 shots this season (.968).
- Sorokin has only two starts this season; current form is a thin sample.
- Game first-period total under 0.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent four-game rates: CHI 2.25 GF/4.25 GA, NYI 2.75 GF/2.25 GA; blended game mean is 5.75.
- Nested first-period mean: 5.75 minus 2.06, 2.14 and 0.20 equals 1.35 goals.
- NHL preview lists Spencer Knight and Ilya Sorokin as the goalies; Sorokin is also listed confirmed by Daily Faceoff.
- The team-rate sample is only four games and early-season scoring is noisy.
- Bo Horvat over 3.0 shots on goal+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 shots in 3 games: 3.33 per game, 11.1% above the 3.0 line.
- Horvat has 2 goals and 1 assist in those 3 games, supporting first-line offensive involvement.
- Official Islanders preview places Horvat on the top line; PrizePicks price is -137.
- Three-game sample is extremely thin, and 3.0 requires four shots to win.
Questions
Who won Blackhawks vs. Islanders?
The Islanders won 4–1 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.