Senators vs. DevilsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPrudential Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| NJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOttawa Senators to win 48¢
Why Cohort Check likes it: Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa: .9419 save percentage and 1.34 GAA in four starts.
Cohort CheckDown 9% this season · 56 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-2 on this game · +37% return
- Ottawa Senators to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa: .9419 save percentage and 1.34 GAA in four starts.
- Nico Daws is confirmed for New Jersey: .8125 save percentage in his one start this season.
- Ottawa is without Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, removing two important defenders.
Morning Puck- Model makes Ottawa a 54% winner after shrinking early-season team rates toward the 3.058-goal league average.
- Ottawa has scored 3.0 and allowed 2.2 goals per game; New Jersey is 2.5/3.5 through the opening sample.
- Only five Ottawa and four New Jersey games make the team-rate sample thin.
- Ottawa Senators spread +1.5+41%Won
Taken at −245 on FanDuel
2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
high-confidence main markets- Ullmark is confirmed: 0.942 save percentage and 1.34 GAA in four starts, versus Daws at 0.813 and 6.01.
- Ottawa is 4-1 with 3.0 goals for and 2.2 against; New Jersey is 2-2 with 2.5 for and 3.5 against.
- New Jersey's 60.2% current Corsi rate leads Ottawa's 48.7%, creating sustained two-goal-win risk.
Morning Puck- Poisson model with early-season shrink makes Ottawa +1.5 a 76% cover probability.
- The model uses 3.0 Ottawa goals for and 2.2 against, versus New Jersey's 2.5 for and 3.5 against.
- Ottawa's defensive depth is weakened by Jake Sanderson's absence.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team goal rates total 5.5; +0.2 empty-net correction gives a 5.7-goal base mean.
- NJD is a modest favorite (-116 Pinnacle), with the sharp total at 6.0; this is not a -300 blowout.
- Nico Daws is confirmed for New Jersey: .813 save percentage and 6.01 GAA in one start.
- The base mean sits below seven; without the correlation and empty-net uplift, Poisson P(7+) is only about 46%.
- Linus Ullmark over 25.5 saves+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 32-shot blended matchup estimate: New Jersey averages 37.8 shots; Ottawa allows 26.2.
- Ullmark is confirmed and owns a .942 save percentage with 81 saves in four starts.
- Projected workload is roughly 29, 30 saves, above the 25.5 threshold.
- Early-season sample is only four starts; Ullmark's .942 save rate can regress.
- Linus Ullmark under 25.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - OTT vs NJD first-period total under 1.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup rate blend is 5.6 expected full-game goals, below the 6.16-goal league-period baseline.
- Scaling the 1.76 first-period baseline gives approximately 1.60 first-period goals.
- Linus Ullmark and Samuel Ersson are confirmed starters, reducing goalie uncertainty.
- The estimated 1.60 first-period mean is model-sensitive; the edge is only slightly above the four-point threshold.
Questions
Who won Senators vs. Devils?
The Senators won 4–1 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.