Islanders vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCanadian Tire Centre
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOttawa Senators to win 61¢
Why Cohort Check likes it: Ottawa's Linus Ullmark is confirmed; he has stopped 83 of 87 shots (.954) in four starts.
Cohort CheckDown 9% this season · 56 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-7 on this game · −50% return
- Ottawa Senators to win+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Backup TaxWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- Ottawa's Linus Ullmark is confirmed; he has stopped 83 of 87 shots (.954) in four starts.
- NYI's confirmed Semyon Varlamov has allowed 7 goals on 47 shots (.852) in two starts.
- Ottawa's 2-7 loss Tuesday and NYI's win Tuesday show meaningful short-sample volatility.
Backup Tax- Semyon Varlamov is confirmed for New York; Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa.
- Ottawa's blended attack projects near 3.1 goals/game versus New York's roughly 2.8 after shrinking early-season rates toward 2025.
- Varlamov's sample is one start after a long layoff, so the backup penalty is highly uncertain.
- 3-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +41900
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Senators: Ottawa is 5-2 at home while New York is 3-3; Barzal remains on IR, and Ottawa is -146 (59.35c).
- Dodgers: Glasnow's 2.88 expected ERA and .190 expected average face a Brewers bullpen used for 9.0 innings and 127 pitches; -144 (59.02c).
- ProphetX re-quoted the exact three-leg slip +420, with $1,000 maximum stake and $100 fillable at the quote.
- Cleveland's bullpen has worked 8.0 innings and 106 pitches over three days, more than Tampa Bay's 6.0 and 95.
- New York Islanders to win−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jake Sanderson is confirmed out; Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark and New York’s Semyon Varlamov are confirmed starters.
- Sanderson’s 2025-26 share: 5.0% of Ottawa goals, 6.1% of shots, 6.8% of skater ice time; 17:00 per game at 5v5.
- I estimate the top-four defense absence moves Islanders win probability about 2.0 percentage points.
- Ottawa’s replacement quality improves with Artem Zub making his season debut.
- Game total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team goal rates imply 5.69 goals; adding the desk's 0.20 empty-net correction gives a 5.89 mean.
- Poisson with a small positive team-goal correlation projects about 55% for 6+ goals.
- Ottawa -158 at Pinnacle and a +170 home puck line fit the close, roughly one-goal favorite profile that creates empty-net upside.
- Both confirmed goalies are strong: Ullmark entered 5-0 with a .948 save percentage and 1.27 GAA.
- New York Islanders @ Ottawa Senators first-period total under 0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current full-game team rates imply about 5.69 goals; period-specific rates nest to 5.82 including 0.2 for empty-net/OT.
- The 0.5 rung is monotone with 84¢ over / 17¢ under, and both sides are quoted without a placeholder price.
- Varlamov is confirmed, but Ullmark is listed as expected rather than fully confirmed; a late goalie change could move the P1 rate.
- Tim Stützle over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −205 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stützle has 11 points in 7 games and cleared 0.5 in 6 of 7.
- He cleared in 8 of his last 10 regular-season games across the current and prior season.
- Official projected lineup places him on Ottawa's top line with Stephen Halliday and Drake Batherson.
- The current-season sample is only seven games, so early scoring pace can regress.
Show all 9 picks
- Dylan Cozens under 0.5 points+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 0 points in each of the four most recent listed games (Oct. 6, 12); the NHL log panel is labeled last five.
- 0 five-on-five points across Ottawa's first seven games, per NHL scoring rates.
- Projected on Ottawa's second line, while Islanders starter Semyon Varlamov is confirmed.
- Five-on-five scoring omits power-play production, where one assist can beat the line.
- Ottawa Senators −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model cover probability: 39.5%; fair price is 39.5¢.
- Semyon Varlamov is confirmed for New York; Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa.
- Ullmark owns a .948 save percentage and four quality starts in five; Varlamov is at .864 in his only start.
- The 39.5% estimate is only a modest 2.5 percentage points above the raw contract price.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 5.89 corrected mean plus positive correlation projects about 43% for 7+ goals.
- Empty-net data specifically raises the high-total tail in close games; historical P(7+) is materially higher with two empty-netters.
- Ottawa's -158 Pinnacle favorite and +170 puck line indicate a competitive game rather than a -300 blowout profile.
- This rung needs seven goals, so one missing goal loses despite a six-goal game.
Questions
Who won Islanders vs. Senators?
The Senators won 2-1 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.