Blue Jackets vs. WildFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGrand Casino Arena

Blue Jackets

1–2Final

Wild

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	1	0	0	1
MIN	1	1	0	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Wild to win 64¢

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: Own win estimate 65% versus 63.77¢ ProphetX; fair price approximately -186, with -180 the worst acceptable threshold.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-1 on this game · +37% return

Minnesota Wild to win3 models agree
+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Cohort Check +1
Why 3 models like it
The Stanley Cup
- Own win estimate 65% versus 63.77¢ ProphetX; fair price approximately -186, with -180 the worst acceptable threshold.
- Minnesota is 5-2-1 with a +6 goal differential; Columbus is 3-3 with a -4 differential.
- Columbus's starting goalie is unconfirmed; Talbot posted .8222 in two starts, but Greaves could start with a .9052 mark.
Cohort Check
- Minnesota scores 3.25 goals/game versus Columbus allowing 3.50; Columbus scores 2.83 versus Minnesota allowing 2.50.
- Expected starters favor Minnesota: Jesper Wallstedt .921 SV%, Cam Talbot .822 SV% this season.
- Minnesota is missing several regulars, including Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, and Filip Gustavsson.
high-confidence main markets
- Jesper Wallstedt is confirmed and owns a .9206 save percentage with 5 quality starts in 7 starts.
- Minnesota's season form: 3.25 goals for and 2.50 against per game, versus Columbus at 2.83 and 3.50.
- Minnesota is missing Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon and Olli Maatta on defense; Kaprizov is expected after illness but lacks final warmup confirmation.
Columbus Blue Jackets +1.52 models agree
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsFair Fence, Dog Cushion
Why 2 models like it
Fair Fence
- a shrunk margin model gives Columbus +1.5 a 68% cover probability, fair about -213.
- Columbus lost by 2+ in 17 of 82 regular-season games last year; its 3-of-6 current rate is heavily shrunk toward that baseline.
- Both starting goalies remain projections rather than confirmed assignments; a late change could materially alter the margin distribution.
Dog Cushion
- Trailing-25 average goal differential: Minnesota +0.32, Columbus -0.20, a 0.52-goal gap.
- The 66% estimate is a coarse historical base-rate bucket, not a game-specific model.
Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal
+64%Won
Taken at −156 on FanDuel
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Johnson has 18 SOG in six games, clearing 1.5 in five; current iSOG/60 is 8.16.
- Three signals align: PP-time stability, recent hit rate, and a likely trailing-game shot script.
- Projected lines and PP units are not confirmed yet; conviction is capped at medium.
CBJ-MIN first-period total over 0.5Favorite
+25%Won
Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1.90 modeled first-period goals: CBJ/MIN attack-defense pairing contributes 0.96 and 0.94.
- Current period splits nest to roughly 6.0 expected game goals after the 0.2 empty-net/OT allowance.
- Both sides are quoted at 80¢/21¢ with a 1¢ gap; the first-period ladder is monotone through 2.5.
- The period rates come from only six CBJ and eight Minnesota games, so early-season variance is material.
Adam Fantilli over 2.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 15 shots across his last five games (3.0 per game), 20% above the 2.5 line.
- Fantilli is projected on Columbus's top line with Matthew Knies and Kent Johnson.
- Columbus produced 145 shots in its last five games (29.0 per game).
- The five-game sample went over only 3 times, so the average is driven by a small sample.

Questions

Who won Blue Jackets vs. Wild?

The Wild won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.