Panthers vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCanadian Tire Centre
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOttawa Senators to win 52¢
Why Cohort Check likes it: Own price: Ottawa 55%, 3.8 points above the sharp-book devig at 51.2%.
Cohort CheckDown 9% this season · 56 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −57% return
- Florida Panthers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsScratch Shift, NHL Ice EdgeWhy 2 models like it
Scratch Shift- Chabot's 2025-26 baseline was 57 games, 7 goals, 99 shots and 22:35 TOI/game; the early-season role is real, but rates are shrunk.
- Ottawa has 22 goals and about 208 shots through 9 games; Chabot accounts for 4.5% of goals and roughly 9.1% of shots.
- Florida also loses Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jacob Markstrom; Akira Schmid starts, materially offsetting the Ottawa scratch.
NHL Ice Edge- Florida's last-10 5v5 Corsi proxy is 58.1% versus Ottawa's 44.7% (+13.4 points).
- Season possession baseline also favors Florida: 57.7% Corsi versus Ottawa's 46.6%.
- Projected goalies are not both officially confirmed: Akira Schmid is expected for Florida and Linus Ullmark is the likely Ottawa starter.
- Ottawa Senators to win+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- Own price: Ottawa 55%, 3.8 points above the sharp-book devig at 51.2%.
- Confirmed Linus Ullmark owns a .945 save percentage and 1.33 GAA; Florida starter Akira Schmid is at .878 and 3.25 GAA.
- Schmid's three-start sample is thin, and Florida still averages 3.333 goals and 29.11 shots per game.
Morning Puck- Ullmark is projected for Ottawa after a 0.9451 save percentage and 1.33 GAA through seven starts.
- Florida's Markstrom is out 1, 2 weeks; Schmid is expected to start after a 0.8776 save percentage and 3.25 GAA.
- Schmid is a backup-level starter, so a poor Florida matchup could erase the modeled edge quickly.
- Linus Ullmark over 22.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - 2-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +21400
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Buffalo is 4-3-2 with 3.00 goals per game; Philadelphia is 2-6-3 with only 1.55 goals per game.
- Ottawa is 6-3-0 and at home; Florida is without Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jacob Markstrom.
- ProphetX re-quoted the exact two-leg slip +215, with $290 maximum stake; $100 is fillable at that quote.
- Buffalo allows 3.78 goals per game, and its starting goalie is not confirmed; Flyers won their last two.
- Sam Reinhart over 1.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −240 on DraftKings
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Negative-binomial P(2+) is approximately 75%; a 10% mean stress remains approximately 70%.
- Reinhart cleared 1.5 SOG in all 9 current-season games; prior 20-game rate was 70%.
- Projected line 2 and PP1 role, with PP TOI rising to 5.7 minutes from 4.2 last-season-window minutes.
- Projected lines and PP unit are not yet officially confirmed; odds-feed participation confirms the game, not exact deployment.
- Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at +114 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- L9: 5 overs in 9 games; 29 shots, 3.22 per game.
- L5: 3 overs in 5 games; 19 shots, 3.80 per game.
- Official NHL preview lists Reinhart on Florida's second line, with a confirmed expected role.
- The exact-stat sample is only nine games; four L9 games stayed under 2.5.
Show all 7 picks
- Sam Bennett over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6 5v5 points in 9 games; 0.667 points per game already clears the 0.5 line by 33%.
- Bennett is projected active on Florida's top line with Matthew and Brady Tkachuk.
- Ottawa allows 26.2 shots against per game while Florida produces 29.3, supporting offensive opportunity.
- Nine-game sample is early-season and does not establish a stable scoring rate.
Questions
Who won Panthers vs. Senators?
The Senators won 5–1 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.