Panthers vs. BlackhawksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUnited Center

Panthers

3–2Final

Blackhawks

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	0	1	3
CHI	1	1	0	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 60¢

Why Fair Fence likes it: Florida's +0.4 recent goal differential versus Chicago's -1.4 creates a 1.8-gap favourite-strength bucket.

Fair FenceUp 15% return this season · 23 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-4 on this game · −33% return

Akira Schmid over 21.5 total saves
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Schmid's .8672 raw save percentage is 3.78 points below .905, so regression supports the over; his 27.29 shots-against/60 is above the line and within the 4.0 sanity band.
- A Panthers lead can suppress Chicago's shot attempts and leave Schmid below 22 saves.
3-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +24300
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Florida's +0.4 recent goal differential versus Chicago's -1.4 creates a 1.8-gap favourite-strength bucket.
- Pooled 2025-26 regular-season games in this bucket: the dog held +1.5 in 334 of 529 (63.1%), fair about -172.
- ProphetX -148 implies 59.7%, 3.4 percentage points cheaper than the estimated fair probability.
- Chicago has allowed 4.0 goals per game in its current form sample, so a two-goal loss remains live.
Brady Tkachuk points 1+Favorite
+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Points FloorNew model
Why it likes it
- The 15c raw gap remains 13c after the 1c points and 1c goals spreads.
- Projected on Florida's top line; points price is below the 70c chalk cutoff and the ladder is monotone.
- His skater status is expected/projected rather than an official game-day confirmation; a late scratch voids the premise.
Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 pointsFavorite
+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi
role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Barkov is on IR for approximately 6, 8 weeks and Marchand is also on IR; Tkachuk is assigned to Florida’s first line and first power play.
- Current PP workload is 346.6 seconds per game versus 214.5 last season; his current 5v5 goals/60 is 1.348.
- Tkachuk has recorded a point in 8 of 11 games, with 15 points and 8 power-play points; current PP points/60 is 7.553.
- The first-line and PP1 assignment is expected rather than confirmed; only his Panthers availability is confirmed.
First-period total under 2.5Favorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projected game mean is 6.05 goals: Florida 3.41 plus Chicago 2.65 from current offense/defense rates.
- Nested first-period mean is 1.65 after subtracting 2.06, 2.14, and 0.20 from the projected game mean.
- The traded first-period ladder is monotone; the target has both sides quoted, a 1-cent gap, and 0.26 contracts traded.
- Florida and Chicago provide only an early-season 21-game sample for the rate estimate.

Show all 7 picks

Game first-period total under 1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Florida and Chicago combine for 5.02 goals per game; Chicago scores only 2.20 per game.
- Florida owns 56.5% five-on-five Corsi; Chicago owns 42.4%, supporting a lower-event opening period.
- Dedicated first-period price is stronger than rejected full-game markets at 64c Panthers ML, 59c Chicago +1.5, and 54c under 6.5.
- First-period totals are high variance; one early power-play goal can break the under.

Questions

Who won Panthers vs. Blackhawks?

The Panthers won 3–2 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.